AlexD1990 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 But guys, DT already said no more storms after tonight Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Wow almost 2 inches of QPF in like 6 hours lol on this storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 WB 12Z EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, Paleocene said: lol. Sleet fest i was asking for the clown maps so i could see that hilarious gradient 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol. Sleet fest i was asking for the clown maps so i could see that hilarious gradient not that terrible but something wonky going on with sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS Acceptable, would be nice to have some high pressure to the north but beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol. Sleet fest i was asking for the clown maps so i could see that hilarious gradient WxBell has it as rain or what must be very wet snow... no sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: WxBell has it as rain or what must be very wet snow... no sleet SV sucks so bad. It’s counting sleet as snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 seems like something will happen late next week. Where is that -NAO we needed? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 11 minutes ago, Ji said: seems like something will happen late next week. Where is that -NAO we needed? It ate too many mints. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 15 minutes ago, Ji said: seems like something will happen late next week. Where is that -NAO we needed? Would have been a HECS . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It ate too many mints.Ate Brooklywx too. Bro vanished 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Look at that gradient. Lol. How will the plow companies calculate rates when they only have to plow half the parking lot? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Alright that is hilarious! How half of DC gonna be colder than Baltimore? That run hurts me feelings Clearly we live in a simulation and it’s not done Fng with you yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GFS is warm, west of us, then when it gets north, slightly inland. It doesnt have that ocean storm in the way...which we kinda need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Gfs does not drop the ns into the ss. No cold despite decent track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GFS is warm, west of us, then when it gets north, slightly inland. It doesnt have that ocean storm in the way...which we kinda needNot sure how models are so different on huge ocean storms lolLike where did the gfs put it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Ji said: Gfs does not drop the ns into the ss. No cold despite decent track I think the Euro evolution is our best shot to get our big (or larger) ticket storm but it is going to be a delicate solution to achieve. We really need that NS to drop down and begin the phase at the exact right moment for this to work and even if it does, the interior is favored in this kind of setup. Good news is we did see the SS dip deeper and a less noisy Eastern Canada allowing more cold air to filter in but Euro much more aggressive with that TPV lobe. Even with a +NAO in place, with all that energy rotating around in Canada, we could see a phased storm time itself correctly as long as we can get the STJ to actually produce a potent wave or two instead of that sheared flat shit it keeps throwing our way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Quite a bit of spread wrt timing and location of low pressure for the 23rd potential. Signal on the 18z mean for some frozen to our south, which can be seen on some of the members with SLP further south/southeast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 this is part of the problem. I agree the mjo gets too much attention. It’s not THE end all some act like. But it is a significant part of the equation. And in a strong Nino it should look opposite what this chart shows. This looks just like the mjo plots from the last 7 years. Unfortunately the strong Nino wasn’t able to significantly alter the recent pacific base state. The warm pool near the MC continued to plague us. One issue is that water is so fooking warm even in a Nino there’s going to be convection there messing with the pattern drivers. And the water there is frankly going to be warmer than the enso regions. Maybe not the anomalies but the raw temps. Obviously this doesn’t mean we can’t get snow or decent patterns. But it’s hard to get sustained cold and great patterns with the mjo waves circling the MC hostile regions all winter. We were supposed to be in 8/1/2 from Feb 15-March 15. Want to know what suddenly changed…the better looks on guidance collapsed when the mjo signal changed. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 this is part of the problem. I agree the mjo gets too much attention. It’s not THE end all some act like. But it is a significant part of the equation. And in a strong Nino it should look opposite what this chart shows. This looks just like the mjo plots from the last 7 years. Unfortunately the strong Nino wasn’t able to significantly alter the recent pacific base state. The warm pool near the MC continued to plague us. One issue is that water is so fooking warm even in a Nino there’s going to be convection there messing with the pattern drivers. And the water there is frankly going to be warmer than the enso regions. Maybe not the anomalies but the raw temps. Obviously this doesn’t mean we can’t get snow or decent patterns. But it’s hard to get sustained cold and great patterns with the mjo waves circling the MC hostile regions all winter. We were supposed to be in 8/1/2 from Feb 15-March 15. Want to know what suddenly changed…the better looks on guidance collapsed when the mjo signal changed. I read…maybe from terpeast that maybe having an insane hurricane season could be that changes everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 minutes ago, Ji said: I read…maybe from terpeast that maybe having an insane hurricane season could be that changes everything That wasn’t my idea, it was 40/70 benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 That wasn’t my idea, it was 40/70 benchmarkOh great. Never mind then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 this is part of the problem. I agree the mjo gets too much attention. It’s not THE end all some act like. But it is a significant part of the equation. And in a strong Nino it should look opposite what this chart shows. This looks just like the mjo plots from the last 7 years. Unfortunately the strong Nino wasn’t able to significantly alter the recent pacific base state. The warm pool near the MC continued to plague us. One issue is that water is so fooking warm even in a Nino there’s going to be convection there messing with the pattern drivers. And the water there is frankly going to be warmer than the enso regions. Maybe not the anomalies but the raw temps. Obviously this doesn’t mean we can’t get snow or decent patterns. But it’s hard to get sustained cold and great patterns with the mjo waves circling the MC hostile regions all winter. We were supposed to be in 8/1/2 from Feb 15-March 15. Want to know what suddenly changed…the better looks on guidance collapsed when the mjo signal changed. Even in the mint runs …never saw a plot that was solid 8 and definitely not solid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 JB hyping up March after the warmth goes away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, Ji said: I read…maybe from terpeast that maybe having an insane hurricane season could be that changes everything I dunno. We need the PDO to flip that’s for sure because the western pac warm pool, expanded Hadley cell and PDO are all amplifying each other’s effect in an awful feedback loop for our snow prospects. Once the PDO (which is still a cyclical thing that’s the one part of this equation that I can admit is not CC related) flips we can evaluate how much of a problem those other 2 factors (which may be more permanent) are. But we’ve proven that those factors along with the -pdo are pretty much insurmountable. Our goalposts within this current paradigm are completely snowless winters to if we get super lucky and almost everything else that could goes perfectly we can fight our way to a near avg snowfall winter. But I don’t think we can get a truly epic snowy winter of the type we all honestly dream of before each year starts until this current pacific cycle ends. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 41 minutes ago, osfan24 said: JB hyping up March after the warmth goes away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, Ji said: Even in the mint runs …never saw a plot that was solid 8 and definitely not solid 1 The euro weeklies did. The EMON plots ran through 8/1/2, mostly at low amp but they did back when they looked amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Make of it what you want. Tough to call . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Make of it what you want. Tough to call .12z looked better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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