winterwx21 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks good. I want to see the 0z models before pulling the trigger on it, but hopefully we're looking at a nice 2 to 4 inch event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: slight tick in the NS buckled the entire trough. these do indeed like to amp up as you head towards game time when there isn't ample confluence This isnt an IMBY post but I feel like there is room on the NAM for a bit more of a push north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said: This isnt an IMBY post but I feel like there is room on the NAM for a bit more of a push north too. yeah, there's nothing stopping that from happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Snowman ftw? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Rgem looks the same. Icon came north and is basically 3 to 5 for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Icon has .7+ qpf In Monmouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Icon has .7+ qpf In Monmouth county Bring it lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Gfs going to be north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs going to be north Kinda had to be Still south of the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs going to be north North but we need a bigger shift to get into anything meaningful on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Wagons north?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I’ll take another 1-3” - not gonna worry about an inch or two difference either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 As I said watch for jet dynamics to induce more snow in this event, even in areas which may be modeled to get little from the coastal. I suspect in this storm there will be a screw zone like last event, not for same reasons but lets take the 18Z RGEM as an example...obviously CNJ sees biggest amounts but I'd bet that places in NE PA/SE NY and NW CT there'd be some zone that gets like 4-5 inches while in between amounts are lower. It happens often in setups like this. The HRRR has notoriously nailed those jet induced snow maxes, even from 36-48 out and indeed if you look at the 18Z run from 34-38 you see that somewhat with that band over PA with a screw zone of lighter echoes between...once the coastal takes over more it sort of loses the snow everywhere and that idea does need to be watched here, but if we get this to tick a bit north it won't matter much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: As I said watch for jet dynamics to induce more snow in this event, even in areas which may be modeled to get little from the coastal. I suspect in this storm there will be a screw zone like last event, not for same reasons but lets take the 18Z RGEM as an example...obviously CNJ sees biggest amounts but I'd bet that places in NE PA/SE NY and NW CT there'd be some zone that gets like 4-5 inches while in between amounts are lower. It happens often in setups like this. The HRRR has notoriously nailed those jet induced snow maxes, even from 36-48 out and indeed if you look at the 18Z run from 34-38 you see that somewhat with that band over PA with a screw zone of lighter echoes between...once the coastal takes over more it sort of loses the snow everywhere and that idea does need to be watched here, but if we get this to tick a bit north it won't matter much. so in other words bust potential is higher then normal again for this event ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, NEG NAO said: so in other words bust potential is higher then normal again for this event ? I think positive bust more so somewhere where nobody thinks anything will happen or only 1-2 will be forecast. I would not think this one will be tough of a forecast nearer to the low center and better dynamics but yeah, I do think a zone in between will be marginally disappointed like this last event, that was partly due to UHI probably but even if it was 25F there'd have been notably lower amounts in NE NJ and NYC last storm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Unless it tracks n of current guidance, I can only see 0.8-1.5" potential in metro NYC, 2-4" se PA- cNJ and 3-5" md-DC-nVA-DE. Will take a look Friday p.m. at performance in midwest to see if I would adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18z euro the same as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Currently snow showers falling. 31° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Really happy to see clippers back from extinction. Hopefully it's not just a MA special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Lol we got ICONED? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: look what just happened in minneapolis I love tracking in real time, this is far better than just model reading. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I love tracking in real time, this is far better than just model reading. Agree that’s why I don’t care about each model run. General patterns are all that are needed. Half an inch here or there who cares. Like seeing the real time tracking and meteorology aspect of these. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Corrected thread title date 18th to 17th at 828PM Thu the 15th. No other changes needed at this time. Max snowfall axis continues near the Mason Dixon line where watches and/or advisories are already posted for NJ/PA/MD. Some modeling have the max snowfall axis a little further north near I78. 18z/15 GFS op has increased snowfall ratio for LI 11 to 1 for early Saturday which if it verifies helps make a little more snow near LI. Presuming it snows in ne PA/nw NJ across e central PA SLR's per the 18z/15 GFS op are near 15 to 1! Just need the qpf. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Really happy to see clippers back from extinction. Hopefully it's not just a MA special. Right! I have accumulating graupel winding down now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Flurrying in Smithtown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Hrrr and nam slightly drier overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Nam looks south/drier. Hopefully get some bumps north tommorow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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