Refresher snow & obs between ~midnight and Noon Sat Feb 17 2024

[jm1220]

Nasty squalls headed for the Forks. 

[snywx]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

You need to be in striking range of normal to date right?

Yeah one more big one and I’m right there. From my records in 21 yrs I avg 54.8. 

[Intensewind002]

Final total here in Lindenhurst was 4.4”, now up to 11.9” for the season. If only that death band was a little further north 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2.1 inches here for the event about as expected.

29.3 inches for the season, right about normal for this date, but certainly not normal the way we've gotten there. So far a Top 5, maybe even Top 3, warmest Winter. At least I've now exceeded the 28.8 from last years miserable winter.

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Nasty squalls headed for the Forks. 

That squall just gave me my heaviest snow rate here just east of KHVN for the whole event.

[SBUWX23]

Those squalls out on eastern LI had awesome graupel. 

[wdrag]

9 hours ago, USCG RS said:

@SnowGoose69  @brooklynwx99 @wdrag @forkyfork @SBUWX23 or any other met, or someone with knowledge, who would like to chime in.

It appears that these types of bands are impossible to predict, even right up to game time. That's also what I've always seen said  

That withstanding, is there anything that can point to where a band like this may set up - geographically prior to now casting? Or are we just not technologically advanced enough to see and predict where these will set up?

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/snowbands/view.php

The first two are from here, using .05 and .10 and you can see the members piling up. Scroll the time from start to finish and you see the evolution. I snapshotted this I can conference call this, though I have a sick grandchild so need to watch that situation. 

Time snapshot 08z-09z/17. 

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/. That's for the last two graphics 900-500 Fgen and 800-600 Fgen. Nam is my favorite...well defined and the lift is in advance of the red and black intense FGEN signal, downwind trajectory, 

I closed with the HREF max axis forecast.  Am sure that had something to do with the PHI initial;l warning, 

 

Like the snow depth change graphics as a minimum amount, these are all worth checking-incorporating. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Snow squall  blowing through at the moment. 

[gravitylover]

3 hours ago, snywx said:

2.4" here

35.8" ytd for the season 

Wow, you're about 13" ahead of me. 

[JerseyWx]

2.5" here today makes it an even 20" for the season.  Not bad actually considering December was a disaster.

Cold night ahead.

 

[ForestHillWx]

Squalls missing to my southwest. Looks like winter out there. 

[RU848789]

9 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

I was the only maniac at the mall today...me and the janitors. But couldn't start up the snow blower at 6 am. Let the neighbors sleep, plus it is illegal.....got some nice pictures around Menlo. Plows having an easier time with this storm. They actually struggled with the ice a few weeks back, they closed the upper decks for a week til it melted. Going to fire up the big blower today.....10-11 inches ....

I used a broom but over 3 clearings through the night. 

[RU848789]

3 hours ago, RU848789 said:

I did wake up for a few around 9.30 am and we had about another 1/4" that had fallen sometime after 8 am, so my final total is 11.25"... also saw that someone else in Metuchen has reported 10.9" around 7 am when I had 11" and plenty of 10-12" reports from NB, edison, etc.

I'm pretty sure this is the biggest positive bust I can remember, at least in my 31 years in Metuchen. Jan 1987 is probably the other biggest +bust I can recall or maybe Feb 83. I will have snow ratio data in a few hours (melting takes awhile).

Snow ratio time. I thought it was 15-20:1, but we actually got 22:1 - damn!  Got 11798 cc of snow melted down to just 530 cc of liquid, so the 11.25" was only 0.5" QPF.

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Snow ratio time. I thought it was 15-20:1, but we actually got 22:1 - damn!  Got 11798 cc of snow melted down to just 530 cc of liquid, so the 11.25" was only 0.5" QPF.

Yep like forky said the moisture didn't overperform it was the ratios within that band

[gravitylover]

It was 27:1 across the street from KDXR

[NorthShoreWx]

3.0" snow here melted down to 0.24".  Ratio 12.5 : 1

1.17" liquid fell as snow here this week (9.4" total).

Season total 14.6"

A good solid early 1950's winter, except much warmer.

[Allsnow]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s really great to see your area score a top 10 snowiest day for the month of February. 
 

Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall 
for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date
1	19.8	2006-02-12
2	19.0	1961-02-04
3	17.9	1983-02-12
4	13.2	1978-02-07
5	13.0	2003-02-17
-	13.0	1967-02-07
-	13.0	1902-02-17
6	11.5	2010-02-11
7	11.0	2024-02-17
-	11.0	1926-02-10
8	10.5	1995-02-04
9	10.1	1987-02-23
10	10.0	1907-02-04
-	10.0	1899-02-13

 

Thank you @bluewave

You’re a class act 

[Allsnow]

14 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Holy crap that's a beautiful thing. Enjoy and congrats 

Thank you @Ginx snewx

[Allsnow]

[coastalplainsnowman]

49 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

3.0" snow here melted down to 0.24".  Ratio 12.5 : 1

1.17" liquid fell as snow here this week (9.4" total).

Season total 14.6"

A good solid early 1950's winter, except much warmer.

That's the era that owns the longest stretch without a six inch storm right?  Only much warmer too.  Two words:  ugh.

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

9 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

 

Just checking the NWS Upton observations.  9.9 Coney Island and 7.6 Bay Ridge? Was just scrolling up here and didn't see that mentioned, and those stand out against the other readings.  Those are pretty remarkable no?

Just noticed that the 9.9" Coney Island reading was stricken.  Wouldn't have been that far off though, as there multiple 8"+ surrounding it, including a 10" on Staten Island.  What an interesting storm.  The wide range of totals look like how rainfall totals look after a night of scattered strong T storms.

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

3.0" snow here melted down to 0.24".  Ratio 12.5 : 1

1.17" liquid fell as snow here this week (9.4" total).

Season total 14.6"

A good solid early 1950's winter, except much warmer.

2.3" here with 15:1 ratios

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

That's the era that owns the longest stretch without a six inch storm right?  Only much warmer too.  Two words:  ugh.

 

It was the definition of ugh.  However, much colder than now.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Just noticed that the 9.9" Coney Island reading was stricken.  Wouldn't have been that far off though, as there multiple 8"+ surrounding it, including a 10" on Staten Island.  What an interesting storm.  The wide range of totals look like how rainfall totals look after a night of scattered strong T storms.

It was probably a little off just like the 7" from the previous storm.  Not off by a lot though  8" for this storm and 6" for the last storm would probably be more accurate.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

3.0" snow here melted down to 0.24".  Ratio 12.5 : 1

1.17" liquid fell as snow here this week (9.4" total).

Season total 14.6"

A good solid early 1950's winter, except much warmer.

I guess it could also be compared to the late 80s / early 90s or late 90s too.

[USCG RS]

11 hours ago, SBUWX23 said:

Not really sure but Bernie Rayno says follow the 528 thickness line, but that was news to me 

 

10 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Amounts like what occurred are essentially impossible to predict but the existence of the strong banding signatures are handled better by today's modeling. This was strong mid-level f-gen, good jet dynamics, and the combined robust lift being well aligned with a very deep and saturated DGZ.

You could find guidance that showed on planar view and cross sections the strong f-gen circulation, good RH, and slantwise instability, the issue is the exact location and the ratios under banding of that nature. I think the HRRR did an excellent job with the depiction of the band on simulated reflectivity.

When you see something like that, you just kind of have to throw out the verbatim snow outputs and assume a very narrow corridor of much higher ratios that could result in totals like what occurred even with QPF probably not being terribly far off, and even that would lbe too low and the gradient sharper than you could possibly forecast. The OKX AFD yesterday was excellent in hinting at what took place. Worth a read.

 

 

8 hours ago, wdrag said:

The answer is yes.  I’ll try to demonstrate with yesterday’s 12z.  Guidance but w grand kids now.  Probably 9pm tonight.   It’s not exact bu I think we can do this within 60 mo either side in a 12-24 lead time.  Demo later.  

 

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/snowbands/view.php

The first two are from here, using .05 and .10 and you can see the members piling up. Scroll the time from start to finish and you see the evolution. I snapshotted this I can conference call this, though I have a sick grandchild so need to watch that situation. 

Time snapshot 08z-09z/17. 

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/. That's for the last two graphics 900-500 Fgen and 800-600 Fgen. Nam is my favorite...well defined and the lift is in advance of the red and black intense FGEN signal, downwind trajectory, 

I closed with the HREF max axis forecast.  Am sure that had something to do with the PHI initial;l warning, 

 

Like the snow depth change graphics as a minimum amount, these are all worth checking-incorporating. 

Thank you for all of this valuable information. It is greatly appreciated and something I will no doubt study more in depth to add to my repertoire. 

@wdrag I hope your grandchild is feeling better. Also, you mentioned something about a conference call? 

[NEG NAO]

who else lost at least half of their snow cover today ?- started with 8 1/2 inches down to 3 -4 with bare spots showing up surrounding larger trees........

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

who else lost at least half of their snow cover today ?- started with 8 1/2 inches down to 3 -4 with bare spots showing up surrounding larger trees........

no just lots of blowing and drifting today, it doesn't matter much anyway it'll be gone in a few days either way.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

no just lots of blowing and drifting today, it doesn't matter much anyway it'll be gone in a few days either way.

true - a week from right now not a trace left unless the late week system delivers more snow which doesn't look likely as of now........

[coastalplainsnowman]

4 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It was the definition of ugh.  However, much colder than now.

The depressing part is that if a 7 year stretch is possible with temps like they had then, how long a streak is possible if we remain at our recent averages?  I realize there are other factors at work, and that there hasn't been a strong correlation between temps and snow yet, but it's not helping.