WestBabylonWeather Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 It’s still snowing in west babylon. Compacted down but still nice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 [mention=58]SnowGoose69[/mention] [mention=9996]brooklynwx99[/mention] [mention=568]wdrag[/mention] [mention=63]forkyfork[/mention] [mention=65]SBUWX23[/mention] or any other met, or someone with knowledge, who would like to chime in. It appears that these types of bands are impossible to predict, even right up to game time. That's also what I've always seen said That withstanding, is there anything that can point to where a band like this may set up - geographically prior to now casting? Or are we just not technologically advanced enough to see and predict where these will set up?Amounts like what occurred are essentially impossible to predict but the existence of the strong banding signatures are handled better by today's modeling. This was strong mid-level f-gen, good jet dynamics, and the combined robust lift being well aligned with a very deep and saturated DGZ. You could find guidance that showed on planar view and cross sections the strong f-gen circulation, good RH, and slantwise instability, the issue is the exact location and the ratios under banding of that nature. I think the HRRR did an excellent job with the depiction of the band on simulated reflectivity. When you see something like that, you just kind of have to throw out the verbatim snow outputs and assume a very narrow corridor of much higher ratios that could result in totals like what occurred even with QPF probably not being terribly far off, and even that would lbe too low and the gradient sharper than you could possibly forecast. The OKX AFD yesterday was excellent in hinting at what took place. Worth a read. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Crazy. Final total was 11 here and it looks beautiful. This is very reminiscent of the phl snow band back in December 2013 It’s really great to see your area score a top 10 snowiest day for the month of February. Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date 1 19.8 2006-02-12 2 19.0 1961-02-04 3 17.9 1983-02-12 4 13.2 1978-02-07 5 13.0 2003-02-17 - 13.0 1967-02-07 - 13.0 1902-02-17 6 11.5 2010-02-11 7 11.0 2024-02-17 - 11.0 1926-02-10 8 10.5 1995-02-04 9 10.1 1987-02-23 10 10.0 1907-02-04 - 10.0 1899-02-13 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 South shore of Staten Island around 10-12 in spots I woke up incredibly surprised lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 ...Richmond County... 1 WSW Tottenville 10.0 in 1000 AM 02/17 Public 1 SE Huguenot 9.5 in 0945 AM 02/17 Public 1 SSW Huguenot 9.1 in 0845 AM 02/17 Public 1 E New Dorp 8.6 in 0550 AM 02/17 Public 1 N Tottenville 7.8 in 0450 AM 02/17 Cocorahs Westerleigh 6.8 in 1035 AM 02/17 Public 1 WNW Tompkinsville 3.5 in 0538 AM 02/17 Public 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2" here. 8.5" for the season. The slow climb to double digits continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 9 hours ago, Allsnow said: 9 hours ago, Allsnow said: @snowman19 ftw Hope you enjoyed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3.0" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 36 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Amounts like what occurred are essentially impossible to predict but the existence of the strong banding signatures are handled better by today's modeling. This was strong mid-level f-gen, good jet dynamics, and the combined robust lift being well aligned with a very deep and saturated DGZ. You could find guidance that showed on planar view and cross sections the strong f-gen circulation, good RH, and slantwise instability, the issue is the exact location and the ratios under banding of that nature. I think the HRRR did an excellent job with the depiction of the band on simulated reflectivity. When you see something like that, you just kind of have to throw out the verbatim snow outputs and assume a very narrow corridor of much higher ratios that could result in totals like what occurred even with QPF probably not being terribly far off, and even that would lbe too low and the gradient sharper than you could possibly forecast. The OKX AFD yesterday was excellent in hinting at what took place. Worth a read. The 0z SPC HREF snowfall max did a nice job with the 8-10” snowfall forecast around Staten Island . But the actual falloff in snowfall to the north was more extreme. This may be the first chance we have had to use this model for a mesoscale snow event. It has done very well in recent years with the numerous flash flood events around the area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2.4" here 35.8" ytd for the season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Macungie, PA: 14.8” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2.0” here, seasonal total now 10.7”. Flurries still falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 The 0z SPC HREF snowfall max did a nice job with the 8-10” snowfall forecast around Staten Island . But the actual falloff in snowfall to the north was more extreme. This may be the first chance we have had to use this model for a mesoscale snow event. It has done very well in recent years with the numerous flash flood events around the area. The nice thing about that page is it uses the WPC forecast ratios so if those are decent, the mean, PMM, and max products will do a better job in hinting at the potential. Going by the CoCoRaHS precip amounts, liquid equivalent was generally in the 0.35 to 0.5" range in the heart of the band, so the ratios really went nuts at 20-30:1+.JFK had 6.1" on 0.32" liquid (nearly 20:1) and the NYS Mesonet on SI had 0.35". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 the highest liquid equivalent i could find in nj was .46" in east brunswick. lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 So basically the models that had the narrow band did fine then. We were mostly going off 10 or possibly 15:1. Nobody expected 20 or 30:1 which ultimately made the difference between 6 and 12" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 the highest liquid equivalent i could find in nj was .46" in east brunswick. lolThere's a 0.5" in Hopewell TWP and 0.48" in Franklin TWP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 12 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The nice thing about that page is it uses the WPC forecast ratios so if those are decent, the mean, PMM, and max products will do a better job in hinting at the potential. Going by the CoCoRaHS precip amounts, liquid equivalent was generally in the 0.35 to 0.5" range in the heart of the band, so the ratios really went nuts at 20-30:1+. JFK had 6.1" on 0.32" liquid (nearly 20:1) and the NYS Mesonet on SI had 0.35". Yeah, the rates under that band were really impressive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 hours ago, RU848789 said: Here's a pic of my semi-final measurement (one more moderate band coming thru) I did wake up for a few around 9.30 am and we had about another 1/4" that had fallen sometime after 8 am, so my final total is 11.25"... also saw that someone else in Metuchen has reported 10.9" around 7 am when I had 11" and plenty of 10-12" reports from NB, edison, etc. I'm pretty sure this is the biggest positive bust I can remember, at least in my 31 years in Metuchen. Jan 1987 is probably the other biggest +bust I can recall or maybe Feb 83. I will have snow ratio data in a few hours (melting takes awhile). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 54 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Macungie, PA: 14.8” Nice. With todays 3", I have 14.6" for the season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, dWave said: 2" here. 8.5" for the season. The slow climb to double digits continues. Like an exciting season in Durham… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, snywx said: 2.4" here 35.8" ytd for the season You need to be in striking range of normal to date right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 2 hours ago, USCG RS said: @SnowGoose69 @brooklynwx99 @wdrag @forkyfork @SBUWX23 or any other met, or someone with knowledge, who would like to chime in. It appears that these types of bands are impossible to predict, even right up to game time. That's also what I've always seen said That withstanding, is there anything that can point to where a band like this may set up - geographically prior to now casting? Or are we just not technologically advanced enough to see and predict where these will set up? The answer is yes. I’ll try to demonstrate with yesterday’s 12z. Guidance but w grand kids now. Probably 9pm tonight. It’s not exact bu I think we can do this within 60 mo either side in a 12-24 lead time. Demo later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Not sure if posted yet... what a gradient.. from 12" in Bridgewater to 4" in Bernard's over 6 miles... 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said: It’s still snowing in west babylon. Compacted down but still nice it snowed steadily here until 1 pm when the sun came out and then it clouded up again and started snowing again 15 min ago and now the sun is trying to come out again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: Not sure if posted yet... what a gradient.. from 12" in Bridgewater to 4" in Bernard's over 6 miles... That 6-8 just barely made it into SW Nassau to right around here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Heavy dippin’ dots shower a few minutes ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 hours ago, weathermedic said: 8 inches at my house in Sheepshead Bay so pretty consistent along the southern areas of Brooklyn and now we're getting blowing and drifting snow lol as the winds are picking up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 hours ago, Rjay said: Yup. not melting at all here we're getting blowing and drifting snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Beautiful with the snow showers passing through and breaks of sun. Can't believe I made it to 50% of average annual snowfall. This century 6th lowest snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Reminds me of a more intense version of the 2/8/94 storm. 2 to 4 for most but a narrow band along 78/80 of 8 to 12. Not as narrow as this one though that was a widespread 8 inches for most of the metro in 1994, great event in the middle of the morning with thundersnow and 2-4 inches per hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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