Stormlover74 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 This was sort of like trying to forecast rainfall amounts in a thunderstorm except most people have no idea if they got half an inch or 1". If most people get a thunderstorm and some don't it's certainly not a bust. But with snow if you're not in that range people will say bust. But how do you forecast for this? Most people saw 2 to 4 but some saw 3x as much nearby. You can't just say 2 to 10 or 2 to 4 with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, Franklin0529 said: 8" in hazlet Northern Monmouth county Yep I am about 5 miles up 35! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Drove up to shovel out my grandmother in Keansburg. Didn't bring a ruler but easily 8-10" here. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 In between 3.5 and 4” here in Bayside Queens. Still coming down a bit, should end very soon. Will Central Park crack 3? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: Guess it was a bust. Never said it was a bust. I said NJ was getting the death band they did. Never made it to Long Island. Was obvious early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, FPizz said: This is definitely going down as the most memorable positive bust that I can remember. Expecting 3 or 4" tops only to get 12" This is definitely up there with Christmas 2002. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 600’ in hunterdon county…. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Around 2" in the Bx on grassy surfaces. Streets are just wet, and just a coating on sidewalks. Trees are absolutely pasted though. Light snow now and 31. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 9 minutes ago, weathermedic said: Yes, lightly let's see if you get close to 10 by the end like Coney Island did 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2.4” in Syosset at 8:30 @Kaner587 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: This was sort of like trying to forecast rainfall amounts in a thunderstorm except most people have no idea if they got half an inch or 1". If most people get a thunderstorm and some don't it's certainly not a bust. But with snow if you're not in that range people will say bust. But how do you forecast for this? Most people saw 2 to 4 but some saw 3x as much nearby. You can't just say 2 to 10 or 2 to 4 with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 Crazy. Can't believe I got 8 inches here when we were only expecting a few. This winter went from being terrible to not bad in the snowfall department for our area this week. Great storm! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Nice snow out there now with these last bands coming through eastern LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/15/2024 at 8:22 AM, SBUWX23 said: the big unknown is if snow growth isnt the best, if you are not dendrites the habit could lower your ratio even its cold. Temperature is only one part of the equation. snow growth was fine at my location 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edubbs83 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I estimate 2.5”-3” in N. Syosset. Parents in Atlantic beach on South shore have about 6”. It’s usually the opposite. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: Crazy. Can't believe I got 8 inches here when we were only expecting a few. This winter went from being terrible to not bad in the snowfall department for our area this week. Yeah when I stepped outside I couldn't believe it was that much. I figured 4 or 5 eyeballing it. That's why you always need to get out there with the ruler 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, winterwx21 said: Crazy. Can't believe I got 8 inches here when we were only expecting a few. This winter went from being terrible to not bad in the snowfall department for our area this week. these types of storms are very difficult to predict till the last few hours prior - we could have easily missed out on the heavy band.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 DC was under a WWA and got only 0.1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 They left my report out for some reason https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=okx&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Yeah when I stepped outside I couldn't believe it was that much. I figured 4 or 5 eyeballing it. That's why you always need to get out there with the ruler same here obviously - you could call this storm a bust for many but these systems are difficult to predict as Upton and MT. Holly were chasing their tails last night issuing winter storm warnings in now casting mode.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: these types of storms are very difficult to predict till the last few hours prior - we could have easily missed out on the heavy band.... You would hope what is supposed to be a highly skilled short range model like HRRR would be able to pick up on something like this, but no. Late last night it was still insisting only a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, MJO812 said: Damn DC was under a Winter Storm Warning and only got 0.1. Winter time keno wsw edition.. pick a spot..may hit or may miss. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: This was sort of like trying to forecast rainfall amounts in a thunderstorm except most people have no idea if they got half an inch or 1". If most people get a thunderstorm and some don't it's certainly not a bust. But with snow if you're not in that range people will say bust. But how do you forecast for this? Most people saw 2 to 4 but some saw 3x as much nearby. You can't just say 2 to 10 or 2 to 4 with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 The SPC HREF max had the right idea with the 8-10” forecast even though the cutoff north of Staten Island to the South Shore was sharper. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: You would hope what is supposed to be a highly skilled short range model like HRRR would be able to pick up on something like this, but no. Late last night it was still insisting only a few inches. The 18z gfs did better lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, Stormlover74 said: The 18z gfs did better lol It did Had the band just under NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Damn DC was under a Winter Storm Warning and only got 0.1. I saw that too lol. Snow started late, ended early, and was really mild heading preceeding the snow. Temps was slower to drop off than predicted heading into it. They had a long way to go from the 50s during the day. I don't think they got into the heavy snow rates needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Wow, 6" here in Garwood, central Union County, NJ. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Snow still falling here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, MJO812 said: It did Had the band just under NYC The fact it even showed a band is amazing but to almost nail it. It was only that one run though then it kinda lost it at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: The fact it even showed a band is amazing but to almost nail it. It was only that one run though then it kinda lost it at 0z I have the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Steady snow with excellent snow growth now. Maybe we end with 3.5”. solid event! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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