Franklin0529 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Will ratios be better than 10:1? More like 12-15 no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Will ratios be better than 10:1? More like 12-15 no? I wouldn't necessarily expect that 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: I wouldn't necessarily expect that Wasn't sure. Just asking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Wasn't sure. Just asking Some have mentioned it but to be safe go with 10:1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I wouldn't necessarily expect that just like it was safe to go with 10:1 the previous event ?- many of the individuals mentioning it are METS with a solid reputation.....temps will be in the 20's at the surface and cold enough aloft....places in south jersey might have closer to 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: just like it was safe to go with 10:1 the previous event ?- many of the individuals mentioning it are METS with a solid reputation.....temps will be in the 20's at the surface and cold enough aloft....places in south jersey might have closer to 10:1 the big unknown is if snow growth isnt the best, if you are not dendrites the habit could lower your ratio even its cold. Temperature is only one part of the equation. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, SBUWX23 said: the big unknown is if snow growth isnt the best, if you are not dendrites the habit could lower your ratio even its cold. Temperature is only one part of the equation. how are you going to determine that in advance of the storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: just like it was safe to go with 10:1 the previous event ?- many of the individuals mentioning it are METS with a solid reputation.....temps will be in the 20's at the surface and cold enough aloft....places in south jersey might have closer to 10:1 They could actually have a higher ratio inside of the heavier banding south of 195 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, NEG NAO said: how are you going to determine that in advance of the storm ? try to look where omega is located, and see if it lines up with the -12 to -18 zone in the profile and it is saturated. That is also one piece of the puzzle. Snow habit is diverse, but that is one way to get an idea. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Stormlover74 said: They could actually have a higher ratio inside of the heavier banding south of 195 true if the heavier banding ends up there - not certain where the banding will occur as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, SBUWX23 said: try to look where omega is located, and see if it lines up with the -12 to -18 zone in the profile and it is saturated. That is also one piece of the puzzle. Snow habit is diverse, but that is one way to get an idea. ok - keep us updated where that omega is located ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: ok - keep us updated where that omega is located ? this is just one variation in CNJ, but NAM3k is showing it above the dendritic growth zone 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 42 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: mainly If you are north of I-78 in NJ - central and south jersey are looking good now............ what if you are at the same latitude as I-78 on the south shore of Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, LibertyBell said: what if you are at the same latitude as I-78 on the south shore of Long Island? I am not sure you tell me ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: what if you are at the same latitude as I-78 on the south shore of Long Island? Models are showing some enhancement off the ocean for coastal locations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, NEG NAO said: I am not sure you tell me ........... we usually do a little better than the city in events like this so in a 2-4 range, it would be Central Park getting 2 and we would get 3, or 3 and 4... this is just going by memory of past events like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Models are showing some enhancement off the ocean for coastal locations Yep, we've seen this in prior events like this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: we usually do a little better than the city in events like this so in a 2-4 range, it would be Central Park getting 2 and we would get 3, or 3 and 4... this is just going by memory of past events like this. yeah central park probably does worse than central nj and LI and even NW NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 long range hrrr but its not very enthused for our area. Generally an inch or less at 10:1. It's also done by this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 NWS-Philly updated their snowfall map While it's a fairly minor event, assuming we get 1-2" (3" would be nice), it will be impactful on Saturday morning travel, as every flake will accumulate with below 32F temperatures during the event, which will be from around 1 am through 10 am. Roads should be fine by late morning as precip stops and we get more indirect sunlight and temps go above 32F for most, except for far NW locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Events like these are my favorite. Wake up to a couple inches on the ground, have a cup of coffee or tea, by the afternoon its all gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, TJW014 said: Events like these are my favorite. Wake up to a couple inches on the ground, have a cup of coffee or tea, by the afternoon its all gone. it would be nice if it snowed all day and then ended with a beautiful sunset.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: it would be nice if it snowed all day and then ended with a beautiful sunset.... these always wrap up quickly. probably by 7 to 10 west to east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Question,,,,it does not always happen but it seems more often than not it does = why do the models almost always seem to correct themselves and shift North as we get closer to game time ? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: these always wrap up quickly. probably by 7 to 10 west to east and it starts around 1 am? I like the ones that start at sunrise, snow all day and end at sunset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, LibertyBell said: and it starts around 1 am? I like the ones that start at sunrise, snow all day and end at sunset. looks like around there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 dont look at the nam lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: dont look at the nam lol Looks like an issue with dry air drain coming down the Hudson/CT River with the cold air. Sometimes we get skunked from the city east with that in minor events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looks like an issue with dry air drain coming down the Hudson/CT River with the cold air. Sometimes we get skunked from the city east with that in minor events. Short range models really picking up on that now. This is probably nothing more then a dusting for the metro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Short range models really picking up on that now. This is probably nothing more then a dusting for the metro 10m winds really are not N though. they are very weak. The issue is the energy is more robust on previous RGEM, Euro runs leading to a more organized low and a bit further north. New NAMs and FV3 are weaker overall and less precip on N side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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