SnowGoose69 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said: What are the probs that CPK gets more here vs this past monday's event? I'd say around 50/50 or even a bit higher now with these latest trends I think its still semi tough...you'll lose some to melting and 8-10:1 ratios the first 90 minutes probably...you'll end up 12-13:1 eventually but I still think its only going to be around 2-3 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Glad to see this trended our way on the 12z models. 2 to 4 looks like a good call for most now. WWA for my area and as others have said, it'll likely be expanded north this afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, winterwx21 said: Glad to see this trended our way on the 12z models. 2 to 4 looks like a good call for most now. WWA for my area and as others have said, it'll likely be expanded north this afternoon. Yeah at least everyone south of 80 should be in one. And I won't be surprised to see a heavy band north of there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I think NYC needs 2.6 to avoid being top 10 least snowy winters...hard to believe when I began doing this 35 years ago #10 was like 12.6 inches lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 RAP looks really good. High end advisory event for most. That fronto band across central PA and NJ keeps ticking north. Between that and the main low may be a mini shaft zone so if that keeps going north Philly and I-195 might be in subsidence, but the consensus now is the best snow there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah at least everyone south of 80 should be in one. And I won't be surprised to see a heavy band north of there Looks good for our area. We better not loose this heavy band to sw ct haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, jm1220 said: RAP looks really good. High end advisory event for most. It still tends to have a NW bias at this range so I usually take it S-SE or E somewhat beyond 18 hours...last event it was definitely a bit too far NW but hard to tell since we had fluky subsidence and bands and the models were all over the final day or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Glad to see this trended our way on the 12z models. 2 to 4 looks like a good call for most now. WWA for my area and as others have said, it'll likely be expanded north this afternoon. I would agree that 2-4” looks good for central and northern NJ and parts of the city with locally higher amounts possible in areas that get into banding. Many areas further west out into PA could see up to 4-8” with the banding that is expected to set up out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Kuchura is actually showing more than the 10:1 map on most models. Being this will all fall mostly overnight with temps in the high 20s could lead to better than 10:1 in some spots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: RAP looks really good. High end advisory event for most. That fronto band across central PA and NJ keeps ticking north. Between that and the main low may be a mini shaft zone so if that keeps going north Philly and I-195 might be in subsidence, but the consensus now is the best snow there. SI jackpot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 this just smells like an overperformer for a lot of NJ… large DGZ, northern FGEN band, and a good airmass these systems love to overperform on the northern edge given the FGEN involved. seems like a weaker version of 1/7/22. whoever gets into this 700mb FGEN is getting 15:1 ratios easily. hell, look at what happened earlier this week with the northern fronto band 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: Kuchura is actually showing more than the 10:1 map on most models. Being this will all fall mostly overnight with temps in the high 20s could lead to better than 10:1 in some spots I haven’t had a chance to dive into it but ratios are determined more by cloud level temps where the snowflakes are made. If temps in the snow growth zone are -12 to -18C you’ll have the best snow growth (dendrites that pile up) and ratios. If the cloud is too cold often you’ll have needle/sand flakes which will be 10-1 or maybe even less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Two events in a row that trended better for the metro. This should get northern LI to 15” on the season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 51 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks good for our area. We better not loose this heavy band to sw ct haha Don't even think it..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, ILoveWinter said: What are the probs that CPK gets more here vs this past monday's event? I'd say around 50/50 or even a bit higher now with these latest trends I think you’re asking the wrong question. I think the right question to ask is what is the probability of Central Park getting the lowest amount of snow in the region again? And I think that’s actually likely. Again, a marginal temperature situation in a marginal winter in an urban environment. If this keeps trending north, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Northern suburbs get more snow than central Park even though Central Park has more precip than the northern suburbs. And that’s what happened this past week. Most of us still have snow on the ground… The Central Park have any left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I think you’re asking the wrong question. I think the right question to ask is what is the probability of Central Park getting the lowest amount of snow in the region again? And I think that’s actually likely. Again, a marginal temperature situation in a marginal winter in an urban environment. If this keeps trending north, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Northern suburbs get more snow than central Park even though Central Park has more precip than the northern suburbs. And that’s what happened this past week. Most of us still have snow on the ground… The Central Park have any left? not true 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 55 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks good for our area. We better not loose this heavy band to sw ct haha Remember the usual rule, 20-30 miles N of where most models show...most show best banding between around TTN and Toms River roughly so perhaps you focus on Perth Amboy/SI south to about Lakehurt for the best chance of banding here as of now....S shore of Queens/Bklyn/W LI might be able to get in on it with a slight north shift 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I think you’re asking the wrong question. I think the right question to ask is what is the probability of Central Park getting the lowest amount of snow in the region again? And I think that’s actually likely. Again, a marginal temperature situation in a marginal winter in an urban environment. If this keeps trending north, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Northern suburbs get more snow than central Park even though Central Park has more precip than the northern suburbs. And that’s what happened this past week. Most of us still have snow on the ground… The Central Park have any left? Temps will be better this time around and the event starts overnight which should help. But can CPK end up being at the lower end again? Sure. My point is that it's possible CPK ends up with more than the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Remember the usual rule, 20-30 miles N of where most models show...most show best banding between around TTN and Toms River roughly so perhaps you focus on Perth Amboy/SI south to about Lakehurt for the best chance of banding here as of now....S shore of Queens/Bklyn/W LI might be able to get in on it with a slight north shift I live in SW CT!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, ILoveWinter said: Temps will be better this time around and the event starts overnight which should help. But can CPK end up being at the lower end again? Sure. My point is that it's possible CPK ends up with more than the last event. They'll likely be around 35/14 or so when snow begins...will get down to upper 20s but will be 10:1 or 9:1 for awhile at the start. I'd still lean 2-3 with a shot they get around 3.5 or so but I'd be 30-35% they beat the last storm total...decent odds but would not set it over 50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I think you’re asking the wrong question. I think the right question to ask is what is the probability of Central Park getting the lowest amount of snow in the region again? And I think that’s actually likely. Again, a marginal temperature situation in a marginal winter in an urban environment. If this keeps trending north, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Northern suburbs get more snow than central Park even though Central Park has more precip than the northern suburbs. And that’s what happened this past week. Most of us still have snow on the ground… The Central Park have any left? What marginal temps ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: What marginal temps ? For like the first hour but even then if it's 32-33 it'll stick to non paved surfaces 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: Glad to see this trended our way on the 12z models. 2 to 4 looks like a good call for most now. WWA for my area and as others have said, it'll likely be expanded north this afternoon. 3-5" is looking more possible actually and someone's gonna hit 6" or more in that band. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Remember the usual rule, 20-30 miles N of where most models show...most show best banding between around TTN and Toms River roughly so perhaps you focus on Perth Amboy/SI south to about Lakehurt for the best chance of banding here as of now....S shore of Queens/Bklyn/W LI might be able to get in on it with a slight north shiftBring it to MMU.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What marginal temps ? It is 40 right now in CPK. I love your optimism, but it will take a while to cool down tonight in city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: It is 40 right now in CPK. I love your optimism, but it will take a while to cool down tonight in city Dewpoint is at 13° 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: It is 40 right now in CPK. I love your optimism, but it will take a while to cool down tonight in city Not with those dews 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 NBM keeps trending upwards... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: It is 40 right now in CPK. I love your optimism, but it will take a while to cool down tonight in city Hey I do get your pessimism, I live in Manhattan so I definitely know all about how hard it is to accumulate here! That being said, temps will be better, heck 40 isn't too bad (and as others noted the dews are quite low anyway so there is room to drop pretty quickly). What is not clear is whether decent rates make it up here - if they do CPK may do better than Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 At 535 PM, I'll update the title if needed (add advisory) and add the NWS regional snowfall graphic, grandchildren babysitting possibly delaying. Banding will occur: MOST of it south of I80 but a period of banding 1/2-1" hr possible I80-LI and north by 25 miles. Best SLR's (fluffy) continue just nw of I95 with NYC in the vicinity of 10 to 1. MPing should be active after 1030PM. Event OBS herein this thread. Back at 530PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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