Stormlover74 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Nam looks south/drier. Hopefully get some bumps north tommorow South with the heavier precip but the northern edge mostly stayed the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: South with the heavier precip but the northern edge mostly stayed the same It consolidates the snow into a coastal low so it dissipates as it comes east from PA. We want that whole setup further north so either the coastal low develops later and that snow survives or we get clipped by the developing low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 light dusting here at some point took an old man nap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 After being very consistent the last couple days, RGEM just went well to the south. Hopefully it's a blip run. Everything else so far tonight at least gives us a couple inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: After being very consistent the last couple days, RGEM just went well to the south. Hopefully it's a blip run. Everything else so far tonight at least gives us a couple inches. Yeah that wasn't great to see. Guess we still have tomorrow to tick north at the last minute 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 19 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: light dusting here at some point took an old man nap I can report the same has occurred here. It goes down as a trace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah that wasn't great to see. Guess we still have tomorrow to tick north at the last minute Yeah still enough time for a north bump. RGEM tonight looked lousy but HRRR and both NAMs looked ok, so it hasn't been a bad 0z suite so far. I'd love to see 3 to 4, but I'll be satisfied if we get 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah still enough time for a north bump. RGEM tonight looked lousy but HRRR and both NAMs looked ok, so it hasn't been a bad 0z suite so far. I'd love to see 3 to 4, but I'll be satisfied if we get 2. Not sure the RGEM went south as much as it was just way drier, at least on the maps I have so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah still enough time for a north bump. RGEM tonight looked lousy but HRRR and both NAMs looked ok, so it hasn't been a bad 0z suite so far. I'd love to see 3 to 4, but I'll be satisfied if we get 2. Is this a clipper? Never seen one produce yet since I've been following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Not sure the RGEM went south as much as it was just way drier, at least on the maps I have so far Looks like it was both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Looks like it was both. Slightly but most have just weakened the system, the ICON is notably drier too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 LOL GFS only model to really get wetter anywhere from the MA to NJ at 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: LOL GFS only model to really get wetter anywhere from the MA to NJ at 00Z The gfs nam and euro all look pretty similar now. If we didn't lose the rgem I'd say we have some consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Lost the RGEM but gained the GFS, lol. GFS went from the worst for our area this afternoon to now the best. Gets about 3 inches up to my area now. As usual it's a bumpy ride with the models in the few days before an event. Right now I'd say 1 to 3 is the best forecast, but we'll see what tomorrow brings. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Anyone got gfs qpf map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Anyone got gfs qpf map https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_024h-imp&rh=2024021600&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Paying too much attention to the model fluctuations every 6 hours - most don't have a handle on this system........ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Paying too much attention to the model fluctuations every 6 hours - most don't have a handle on this system........ I mean it's 24 hrs away. I think the consensus is 1-3" from city south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: Is this a clipper? Never seen one produce yet since I've been following. this is not a clipper its a weak mid- latitude cyclone - starting out in central rockies - it didn't originate in Canada 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: Pete do you mind saying more about what the Euro shows after? Well there is February 23rd where the models have solutions ranging from suppression to tracking just to our northwest along an approaching cold front. The are a few milder days and a storm tracking into the Great Lakes but I think it's foolish now that we've seen a colder pattern and some snowfall to dismiss the idea that the colder pattern would reload sometime in March. So I do think most likely there will be at least two more snow threats this season after tomorrow night. WX/PT 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 OBS for tomorrow mornings 1-2" will drop right in here. City streets melt for a few hours at the start and maybe the first 1-2 hours of snow on the CP snow board melts due to initially above freezing temps. Several self explanatory graphics added. Please click for clarity. Snow ratios NYC probably close to 10 to 1. Definitely higher ratios nw NJ/e central and ne PA-se NYS for whatever the qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Gfs and Euro trended slightly north overnight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Hrrr also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 NWS regional snowfall forecast. NWS also noted that 2-3" amounts might easily extend north to include the rest of NNJ, NENJ, NYC, and LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hrrr also Ant got the map ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: NWS regional snowfall forecast. NWS also noted that 2-3" amounts might easily extend north to include the rest of NNJ, NENJ, NYC, and LI. Like others I am hoping this bumps a little more North to get my area looking a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Ant got the map ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Wow euro with another tick north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, MJO812 said: Wow euro with another tick north Just hoping this thing ticks slightly more north today and that it shows and actually comes in juicier 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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