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Refresher snow & obs between ~midnight and Noon Sat Feb 17 2024


wdrag
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  On 2/15/2024 at 1:47 PM, LibertyBell said:

we usually do a little better than the city in events like this so in a 2-4 range, it would be Central Park getting 2 and we would get 3, or 3 and 4... this is just going by memory of past events like this.

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The trend in the models with the 12z runs is that the greater amounts will be mainly to the south and west of the city.

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  On 2/15/2024 at 3:48 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Not even a flake on the gfs. congrats va beach

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So basically right now we have no idea if we're gonna get 2-3 inches or almost nothing. Hopefully RGEM/Euro are right but can't have any confidence until the American models come back north. Hopefully we will see UKMET and Euro hold shortly. As usual a very difficult forecast a couple days before an event. It's never easy. 

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  On 2/15/2024 at 3:51 PM, winterwx21 said:

So basically right now we have no idea if we're gonna get 2-3 inches or almost nothing. Hopefully RGEM/Euro are right but can't have any confidence until the American models come back north. Hopefully we will see UKMET and Euro hold shortly. As usual a very difficult forecast a couple days before an event. It's never easy. 

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I expected the gfs to remain a bit south of the other models not to shift another 50 miles south though 

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  On 2/15/2024 at 2:40 PM, Allsnow said:

Short range models really picking up on that now. This is probably nothing more then a dusting for the metro 

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Based on one NAM run that's a little dry?  I'll take the RGEM and CMC over the NAM/GFS (showing it's SE bias again) any day.  Also, let's see how the rest of the model suite plays out.  If the Euro/UK trend drier, then the concern is likely warranted, but if they hold serve, it's time to be a bit more confident in a 1-3" snowfall.  Ratios might also be >10:1, but not convinced about that without better omega (cold isn't everything).  

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Compared to the GFS the UKIE is at the North Pole....difference with GFS seems to be its dropping the whole trof from Lakes/Canada down and just squashing the whole setup...it may also be ever so slightly slower exiting stage right the previous system but hard to say if that really had an impact

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