MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 31 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: dont look at the nam lol Nam can't even get a 12 hour forecast right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Rgem still north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rgem still north RGEM and Euro/EPS are 2-3+. WWAs probably go up tonight 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: RGEM and Euro/EPS are 2-3+. WWAs probably go up tonight Kuchera has a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The RGEM/NAM difference is really just the strength of the S/W...the exiting storm is not really markedly causing more confluence on either model vs the other 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: we usually do a little better than the city in events like this so in a 2-4 range, it would be Central Park getting 2 and we would get 3, or 3 and 4... this is just going by memory of past events like this. The trend in the models with the 12z runs is that the greater amounts will be mainly to the south and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 One thing I should mention and not included in thread. Very unstable Sat afternoon in wake of the event with scattered snow showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Not even a flake on the gfs. congrats va beach 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Not even a flake on the gfs. congrats va beach So basically right now we have no idea if we're gonna get 2-3 inches or almost nothing. Hopefully RGEM/Euro are right but can't have any confidence until the American models come back north. Hopefully we will see UKMET and Euro hold shortly. As usual a very difficult forecast a couple days before an event. It's never easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: So basically right now we have no idea if we're gonna get 2-3 inches or almost nothing. Hopefully RGEM/Euro are right but can't have any confidence until the American models come back north. Hopefully we will see UKMET and Euro hold shortly. As usual a very difficult forecast a couple days before an event. It's never easy. I expected the gfs to remain a bit south of the other models not to shift another 50 miles south though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 I’ll correct the thread date from 18 to 17 late today. My error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Cmc a tick north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I expected the gfs to remain a bit south of the other models not to shift another 50 miles south though Have to admit I'm starting to get a bad feeling even though I've always been a fan of the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, winterwx21 said: Have to admit I'm starting to get a bad feeling even though I've always been a fan of the RGEM. Yeah I dont know. These events that favor the mid Atlantic often screw us. Usually the nam is too far north though like the early Jan 22 storm that missed us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Short range models really picking up on that now. This is probably nothing more then a dusting for the metro Based on one NAM run that's a little dry? I'll take the RGEM and CMC over the NAM/GFS (showing it's SE bias again) any day. Also, let's see how the rest of the model suite plays out. If the Euro/UK trend drier, then the concern is likely warranted, but if they hold serve, it's time to be a bit more confident in a 1-3" snowfall. Ratios might also be >10:1, but not convinced about that without better omega (cold isn't everything). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah I dont know. These events that favor the mid Atlantic often screw us. Usually the nam is too far north though like the early Jan 22 storm that missed us Yup. Past few years we haven’t had the last minute north shifts with these clippers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Ukie south too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 58 minutes ago, Tatamy said: The trend in the models with the 12z runs is that the greater amounts will be mainly to the south and west of the city. why not south and east with moisture coming off the ocean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Ukie south too And even moreso than being south, it just dries the system up as it moves east. Very little even for southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, winterwx21 said: And even moreso than being south, it just dries the system up as it moves east. Very little even for southern NJ. The snow map is off. Still gets a .25" liquid down there and almost a tenth up here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: The snow map is off. Still gets a .25" liquid down there and almost a tenth up here Nice catch, yeah that's pretty odd. At least it's not terribly far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, winterwx21 said: Nice catch, yeah that's pretty odd. At least it's not terribly far south. Not sure why it does that. Only on the ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Not sure why it does that. Only on the ukie Yeah that sure is a stange error lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Compared to the GFS the UKIE is at the North Pole....difference with GFS seems to be its dropping the whole trof from Lakes/Canada down and just squashing the whole setup...it may also be ever so slightly slower exiting stage right the previous system but hard to say if that really had an impact 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why not south and east with moisture coming off the ocean? The flow as modeled is offshore so no help from that direction for places on the island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Euro holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro holds It increased 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Yeah beefier 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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