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Refresher snow & obs between ~midnight and Noon Sat Feb 17 2024


wdrag
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  On 2/15/2024 at 1:18 PM, NEG NAO said:

just like it was safe to go with 10:1 the previous event ?- many of the individuals mentioning it are METS with a solid reputation.....temps will be in the 20's at the surface and cold enough aloft....places in south jersey might have closer to 10:1

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the big unknown is if snow growth isnt the best, if you are not dendrites the habit could lower your ratio even its cold. Temperature is only one part of the equation. 

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  On 2/15/2024 at 1:18 PM, NEG NAO said:

just like it was safe to go with 10:1 the previous event ?- many of the individuals mentioning it are METS with a solid reputation.....temps will be in the 20's at the surface and cold enough aloft....places in south jersey might have closer to 10:1

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They could actually have a higher ratio inside of the heavier banding south of 195

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  On 2/15/2024 at 1:23 PM, NEG NAO said:

how are you going to determine that in advance of the storm ?

 

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try to look where omega is located, and see if it lines up with the -12 to -18 zone in the profile and it is saturated. That is also one piece of the puzzle. Snow habit is diverse, but that is one way to get an idea. 

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  On 2/15/2024 at 1:47 PM, LibertyBell said:

we usually do a little better than the city in events like this so in a 2-4 range, it would be Central Park getting 2 and we would get 3, or 3 and 4... this is just going by memory of past events like this.

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yeah central park probably does worse than central nj and LI and even NW NJ 

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NWS-Philly updated their snowfall map  While it's a fairly minor event, assuming we get 1-2" (3" would be nice), it will be impactful on Saturday morning travel, as every flake will accumulate with below 32F temperatures during the event, which will be from around 1 am through 10 am. Roads should be fine by late morning as precip stops and we get more indirect sunlight and temps go above 32F for most, except for far NW locations. 

wVlx10t.png

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  On 2/15/2024 at 2:40 PM, Allsnow said:

Short range models really picking up on that now. This is probably nothing more then a dusting for the metro 

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10m winds really are not N though. they are very weak. The issue is the energy is more robust on previous RGEM, Euro runs leading to a more organized low and a bit further north. New NAMs and FV3 are weaker overall and less precip on N side. 

 

nam3km_ref_uv10m_neus_43.png

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