wdrag Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ensembles (10-1 SLR) will be attached for the anticipated results of a western Canadian short wave digging into the northeast USA Saturday morning. Latitude of the leading low pressure system will assist determining the axis of best snowfall which for the most part on 2/14 is near PHL. The SREF of 15z/ 14 is closest to I80-LI. Amounts with subfreezing surface temps and accumulation on all untreated surfaces could range roughly anywhere 1/2 to 4". A conservative approach right now from the modeling, is to expect less than 2 inches I80-LI northward and a bit more to the south of I80. There will be modest lift in the DGZ (GFS/NAM not shown) and what seems to be a nice 3 hour period of decent snowfall near sunrise as seen in the NAM Banding tool (not shown). A sample of the GFS model SLR for 12z Saturday leads the imagery and reflect higher ratios north of I80 and about 9 to 1 for LI. Hopefully we can enjoy more snow. Added the 12z/14 GEFS snowfall chart at 441PM. This weekend we can look back at reality vs modeling. Corrected date 18th to 17th at 828PM Thu the 15th. No other changes needed at this time. Max snowfall axis continues near the Mason Dixon line where watches and/or advisories are already posted for NJ/PA/MD. Some modeling have the max axis a little further north near I78. 18z/15 GFS op has increased snowfall ratio for LI 11 to 1 for early Saturday. Title simplified 704PM Fri Feb 16. Verification added at 1PM/18 via NOHRSC and CoCoRaHS with the infamous banding near I78 that dumped 6-13" from s LI beaches west to Allentown. DCA 0.1, BWI 2.2, PHL 2.6, ABE 5.7, NYC CP 2.0, BDL 0.7, ORH 0.5w, and BOS T. looks to me like GEFS did best using the initial ensembles within this thread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Gfs ticked north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs ticked north. I'm rooting it on... make this thing worthwhile. I'll check back briefly tomorrow and Friday mornings. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Seems like the type of system that would trend north down to the wire. Just speculating there though and by no means saying it will happen. Just feel like I've seen northern stream dominant lows shift north frequently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Gfs ens stronger and north as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs ens stronger and north as well notably so 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: notably so Wanna see this continue in next several runs. It's been back and forth but would be cool if we can get a bump in qpf too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I was hoping or to get 4 months of winter but IF we have to settle for one or 2 weeks of winter so be it BRING on this little event Friday nite we'll take it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Nam back south 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam back south It’s a mid Atlantic winter. Funny we go from a winter of cutters last winter to suppression this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: It’s a mid Atlantic winter. Funny we go from a winter of cutters last winter to suppression this winter. We'll see. Still bouncing around 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 As long as it's not this wet slushy crap we just got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 21 minutes ago, psv88 said: It’s a mid Atlantic winter. Funny we go from a winter of cutters last winter to suppression this winter. The nam can easily shift back north. Rgem is and it's consistent with its previous run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, SBUWX23 said: The nam can easily shift back north. Rgem is and it's consistent with its previous run RGEM came slightly (about 20 miles north) at 0Z and 2M temps are in the 20's in most of metro so higher then normal ratio's - 2 -4 inches region wide possible on RGEM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Nice bump north on the Ukie. Gets a couple inches up to NYC and 3 to 4 for central NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Bump North baby Bump North and if you care to gain some moisture and strength along the way please feel free 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Curious as to why Walt thinks this is as short as a 4 hour and long as a 10 hour event ?? Uncertainty of speed and development of the system ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Bump North baby Bump North and if you care to gain some moisture and strength along the way please feel free This is a lower then normal impact event since it is happening on a Friday night into Saturday morning and traffic is much lighter with closed school and many business'. Potential of 2-4 and 3-5 IMO especially south of I-78 in NJ ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Bump north on the Euro as well. Looks similar to UKMET. Good way to end the night .... hopefully things will keep trending our way on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: Curious as to why Walt thinks this is as short as a 4 hour and long as a 10 hour event ?? Uncertainty of speed and development of the system ???? Modeling keeps it short... progressive. No closing off aloft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Bump north on the Euro as well. Looks similar to UKMET. Good way to end the night .... hopefully things will keep trending our way on Thursday. Bump north on eps and rgem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Icon north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Icon north 06z Euro also bumps slightly north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 RGEM very nice event, would probably be 3-5” especially I-80 south given ratios. Might have a nice snow cover in places that get hit decently with this and last storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 20 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 06z Euro also bumps slightly north. Yep nice bump 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: RGEM very nice event, would probably be 3-5” especially I-80 south given ratios. Might have a nice snow cover in places that get hit decently with this and last storm. Hopefully models at least hold if not continue bumping north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Yep nice bump Op Euro 10:1 is up to 3” in NYC 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Op Euro 10:1 is up to 3” in NYC Need more bumps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Need more bumps mainly If you are north of I-78 in NJ - central and south jersey are looking good now............ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Need more bumps It most likely will, however there is going to be a limit to how far north it bumps. You want to be south of 287 for this one 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now