2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Not in the manner which has manifested since around 2010. 

Looks like to me there may been back in the 1800s.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think its logical to conclude that maybe we don't see a -AMO cycle reach the depths of what we have in the past....

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think its logical to conclude that maybe we don't see a -AMO cycle reach the depths of what we have in the past....

I agree. The -PDO/-AMO patterns of the past are just that, the past. I remember seeing a Joe Bastardi CNN interview clip that someone shared a few years ago from 2003 I think it was? Anyway, he said we were going back into the exact weather pattern of the 1940’s-1970’s. Replica. Was absolutely sure about it, convinced. Good lord was that an epic fail

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I agree. The -PDO/-AMO patterns of the past are just that, the past. I remember seeing a Joe Bastardi CNN interview clip that someone shared a few years ago from 2003 I think it was? Anyway, he said we were going back into the exact weather pattern of the 1940’s-1970’s. Replica. Was absolutely sure about it, convinced. Good lord was that an epic fail

There will probably be some variations moving forward, so I see what Chris is saying on some level.....but I highly doubt a discontinuation of the cycles.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think a lot of this is perfectly valid to call into question, but this idea of the West PAC warm pool permanently altering things should still be viewed as the alternative viewpoint...IOW, assume large scale oscillations will continue to operate relatively similiarly to how they have for the past 200 years plus until proven otherwise. Its akin to being up 3-0 in a series and feeling like you have the upperhand when you win one in a best-of-seven. You're still down 3-1 and are probably losing. If we hit the early 2030's and nothing has changed and Bluewave continues to prance nude in phase 5 unabated, then perhaps we have the 2004 Red Sox on our hands.

[michsnowfreak]

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I agree. The -PDO/-AMO patterns of the past are just that, the past. I remember seeing a Joe Bastardi CNN interview clip that someone shared a few years ago from 2003 I think it was? Anyway, he said we were going back into the exact weather pattern of the 1940’s-1970’s. Replica. Was absolutely sure about it, convinced. Good lord was that an epic fail

Anyone to say we are going into "an exact" weather pattern of "x" years is a downright fool. However I wouldnt necessarily say an "epic fail". Winters circa 2004-2015 definitely had 1970s vibes, while winters since 2016 have had 1950s vibes. And by vibes, i mean similarities, not replicas.

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There will probably be some variations moving forward, so I see what Chris is saying on some level.....but I highly doubt a discontinuation of the cycles.

I said alteration or reinterpretation filtered through competing marine heatwaves but not necessarily a discontinuation in a traditional sense.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks liketo me there may been back in the 1800s.

I have no idea what any indicies were, but I do know that there were absolutely WILD swings from 1874-1882. In that 8 winter stretch, winters alternated from very warm to very cold each year. Not talking slightly above or below avg, im talking huge departures. Ive always been fascinated by what could have caused that.

150 years later, the winters STILL stand (at Detroit) as:

1874-75: 2nd coldest

1875-76: 19th warmest

1876-77: 19th coldest

1877-78: 16th warmest

1878-79: 14th coldest

1879-80: 12th warmest

1880-81: 13th coldest

1881-82: 1st warmest

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I said alteration or reinterpretation filtered through competing marine heatwaves but not necessarily a discontinuation in a traditional sense.

Yea, that is reasonable for as long as said heat waves remian as presently constituted.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have no idea what any indicies were, but I do know that there were absolutely WILD swings from 1874-1882. In that 8 winter stretch, winters alternated from very warm to very cold each year. Not talking slightly above or below avg, im talking huge departures. Ive always been fascinated by what could have caused that.

150 years later, the winters STILL stand (at Detroit) as:

1874-75: 2nd coldest

1875-76: 19th warmest

1876-77: 19th coldest

1877-78: 16th warmest

1878-79: 14th coldest

1879-80: 12th warmest

1880-81: 13th coldest

1881-82: 1st warmest

Elephant in the room.....the omniprescent issue within the context of all atmospheric research is the relative dearth of data/sample size.

[michsnowfreak]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Elephant in the room.....the omniprescent issue within the context of all atmospheric research is the relative dearth of data/sample size.

When I was younger, I always read my sisters Little House on the Prairie Book "The Long Winter". That book took place on the Dakota prairie during the winter of 1880-81. The next story in the series (idk remember the name) would have taken place during 1881-82. Although the focus of that book was not on the weather as The Long Winter was, there were some blurbs about how they were trying to get extra precautions in place (autumn 1881) because of the disasters the hard winter the year before caused, and instead the winter ended up being springlike and "open".

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

When I was younger, I always read my sisters Little House on the Prairie Book "The Long Winter". That book took place on the Dakota prairie during the winter of 1880-81. The next story in the series (idk remember the name) would have taken place during 1881-82. Although the focus of that book was not on the weather as The Long Winter was, there were some blurbs about how they were trying to get extra precautions in place (autumn 1881) because of the disasters the hard winter the year before caused, and instead the winter ended up being springlike and "open".

"Snowfall up to thy knickers on the level dissapeared with the hastiness of a summer dress".

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

When I was younger, I always read my sisters Little House on the Prairie Book "The Long Winter". That book took place on the Dakota prairie during the winter of 1880-81. The next story in the series (idk remember the name) would have taken place during 1881-82. Although the focus of that book was not on the weather as The Long Winter was, there were some blurbs about how they were trying to get extra precautions in place (autumn 1881) because of the disasters the hard winter the year before caused, and instead the winter ended up being springlike and "open".

In fall 2011, when I was a student at Drexel, I read this book for one of my classes: 

I remember somewhere in the book where they talk about the winter of 1957-58 being very snowy and cold. 

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Elephant in the room.....the omniprescent issue within the context of all atmospheric research is the relative dearth of data/sample size.

We don’t have the luxury of really large sample sizes that we used to enjoy in a much more stable climate of the past. So we just have to do the best with what we have. Non linear or threshold behavior doesn’t really become known until it’s already in the rear view mirror. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Of course, 1957-58 is one of those rare cases where everything came together oh so perfectly during a stronger el nino winter: 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We don’t have the luxury of really large sample sizes that we used to enjoy in a much more stable climate of the past. So we just have to do the best with what we have. Non linear or threshold behavior doesn’t really become known until it’s already in the rear view mirror. 

Yes...CC is exacerbating the preexisiting sample size issue.

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We don’t have the luxury of really large sample sizes that we used to enjoy in a much more stable climate of the past. So we just have to do the best with what we have. Non linear or threshold behavior doesn’t really become known until it’s already in the rear view mirror. 

Last season was a perfect illustration of this....if you viewed everything through the lens of yesteryear, 1957 looked like a decent analog. This is the trap that I fell into. 

7 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Of course, 1957-58 is one of those rare cases where everything came together oh so perfectly during a stronger el nino winter: 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have no idea what any indicies were, but I do know that there were absolutely WILD swings from 1874-1882. In that 8 winter stretch, winters alternated from very warm to very cold each year. Not talking slightly above or below avg, im talking huge departures. Ive always been fascinated by what could have caused that.

150 years later, the winters STILL stand (at Detroit) as:

1874-75: 2nd coldest

1875-76: 19th warmest

1876-77: 19th coldest

1877-78: 16th warmest

1878-79: 14th coldest

1879-80: 12th warmest

1880-81: 13th coldest

1881-82: 1st warmest

Fwiw, I added ENSO as per Webb’s table:

1874-75: 2nd coldest    weak Nina

1875-76: 19th warmest      neutral

1876-77: 19th coldest      weak Nino

1877-78: 16th warmest     Super Nino

1878-79: 14th coldest      cold neutral

1879-80: 12th warmest    weak Niña 

1880-81: 13th coldest       weak Nino

1881-82: 1st warmest.        neutral

[GaWx]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't really care whether or not Phil endorses it.....I have seen enough to be confident that high solar caps ACE.

 

 

 As you know I’ve been hoping to see actual research papers backing up the idea of a connection of very high sunspot numbers and the recent quiet in the Atlantic basin to supplement my own analysis of the actual numbers and your confidence. Fortunately, I just became aware of a good number of papers thanks to @jconsorwritten dating back to 2008 suggesting a partial negative correlation between sunspots and hurricane activity. The idea is (as we’ve already suspected) that when the sun has an increasing level of sunspots, the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere immediately get warmer (more of a rise than lower down) thus increasing atmospheric stability in a general sense.

 Of course proving this relationship isn’t easy due to other variables. But the authors discuss this and seem to have done well taking these other variables into account.

 (I was first made aware of a possible direct connection only last week by Joe D’Aleo and seconded by Bastardi.)

 The August SSN of 215 is the highest of the active era for any August. And August had only two NS (even though both were hurricanes). Furthermore, since Ernesto it has been exceedingly quiet relative to climo. In light of the following papers, this is probably a major contributor to the quiet:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2008GL034431

https://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/HodgesElsner2010.pdf

http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/temp/PDF/Research/ElsnerJaggerHodges2010.pdf

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.5402/2012/517962

https://sci-hub.ru/10.1016/j.jastp.2009.09.012

https://ephyslab.uvigo.es/publica/documents/file_358JASTP_2015.pdf

@snowman19

Edit: though not as high as most of August, sunspots are still quite high with an avg of 184 so far this month. The dailies will be worthwhile to monitor throughout the month to see whether a significant drop occurs:

2024 09 01 2024.668 180  16.2  26  33
2024 09 02 2024.671 197  19.4  24  31
2024 09 03 2024.673 180  22.4  19  22
2024 09 04 2024.676 179  29.7  19  23
2024 09 05 2024.679 180  13.7  13  16

[snowman19]

 As you know I’ve been hoping to see actual research papers backing up the idea of a connection of very high sunspot numbers and the recent quiet in the Atlantic basin to supplement my own analysis of the actual numbers and your confidence. Fortunately, I just became aware of a good number of papers thanks to [mention=88]jconsor[/mention]written dating back to 2008 suggesting a partial negative correlation between sunspots and hurricane activity. The idea is (as we’ve already suspected) that when the sun has an increasing level of sunspots, the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere immediately get warmer (more of a rise than lower down) thus increasing atmospheric stability in a general sense.
 Of course proving this relationship isn’t easy due to other variables. But the authors discuss this and seem to have done well taking these other variables into account.
 (I was first made aware of a possible direct connection only last week by Joe D’Aleo and seconded by Bastardi.)
 The August SSN of 215 is the highest of the active era for any August. And August had only two NS (even though both were hurricanes). Furthermore, since Ernesto it has been exceedingly quiet relative to climo. In light of the following papers, this is probably a major contributor to the quiet:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2008GL034431
https://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/HodgesElsner2010.pdf
http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/temp/PDF/Research/ElsnerJaggerHodges2010.pdf
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.5402/2012/517962
https://sci-hub.ru/10.1016/j.jastp.2009.09.012
https://ephyslab.uvigo.es/publica/documents/file_358JASTP_2015.pdf
[mention=13098]snowman19[/mention]
Edit: though not as high as most of August, sunspots are still quite high with an avg of 184 so far this month. The dailies will be worthwhile to monitor throughout the month to see whether a significant drop occurs:

2024 09 01 2024.668 180  16.2  26  332024 09 02 2024.671 197  19.4  24  312024 09 03 2024.673 180  22.4  19  222024 09 04 2024.676 179  29.7  19  232024 09 05 2024.679 180  13.7  13  16

Here comes the next surge in sunspots….

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 As you know I’ve been hoping to see actual research papers backing up the idea of a connection of very high sunspot numbers and the recent quiet in the Atlantic basin to supplement my own analysis of the actual numbers and your confidence. Fortunately, I just became aware of a good number of papers thanks to @jconsorwritten dating back to 2008 suggesting a partial negative correlation between sunspots and hurricane activity. The idea is (as we’ve already suspected) that when the sun has an increasing level of sunspots, the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere immediately get warmer (more of a rise than lower down) thus increasing atmospheric stability in a general sense.

 Of course proving this relationship isn’t easy due to other variables. But the authors discuss this and seem to have done well taking these other variables into account.

 (I was first made aware of a possible direct connection only last week by Joe D’Aleo and seconded by Bastardi.)

 The August SSN of 215 is the highest of the active era for any August. And August had only two NS (even though both were hurricanes). Furthermore, since Ernesto it has been exceedingly quiet relative to climo. In light of the following papers, this is probably a major contributor to the quiet:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2008GL034431

https://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/HodgesElsner2010.pdf

http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/temp/PDF/Research/ElsnerJaggerHodges2010.pdf

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.5402/2012/517962

https://sci-hub.ru/10.1016/j.jastp.2009.09.012

https://ephyslab.uvigo.es/publica/documents/file_358JASTP_2015.pdf

@snowman19

Edit: though not as high as most of August, sunspots are still quite high with an avg of 184 so far this month. The dailies will be worthwhile to monitor throughout the month to see whether a significant drop occurs:

2024 09 01 2024.668 180  16.2  26  33
2024 09 02 2024.671 197  19.4  24  31
2024 09 03 2024.673 180  22.4  19  22
2024 09 04 2024.676 179  29.7  19  23
2024 09 05 2024.679 180  13.7  13  

Solar influence isn’t strong enough to cause the disparity we saw this season since this is the greatest difference between the upper levels and surface since 1950.

 

[mitchnick]

Euro seasonal does now show a solid weak Niña fwiw. Bye-bye 19/20 lol

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro seasonal does now show a solid weak Niña fwiw. Bye-bye 19/20 lol

Warmer SSTs from Japan across to south of the Aleutians. Also stronger warm pool east of New England. More defined colder ENSO signal in Nino 3.4 and 4.

 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Solar influence isn’t strong enough to cause the disparity we saw this season since this is the greatest difference between the upper levels and surface since 1950.

 

The idea is that high solar, which itself apparently contributes to atmospheric stability, may very well be a major contributing factor, not the sole factor.

 Was this stability forecasted? Anyone know? And can stability caused by high solar even be predicted by wx models?

[GaWx]

47 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro seasonal does now show a solid weak Niña fwiw. Bye-bye 19/20 lol

That is ~-0.7 ONI low point, which compares to -0.3 last month and -0.1 two months back, but was similar to what the May and March runs were suggesting. It looks like it is correcting its typical warm bias and perhaps is also responding to the recent 3.4 drops and the new +SOI.

 The implied RONI based on my recent analysis of RONI minus ONI is that it would probably dip to ~-1.0 to -1.2 (moderate Nina) if the ONI were to actually dip to -0.7.

 

 

[bluewave]

51 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The idea is that high solar, which itself apparently contributes to atmospheric stability, may very well be a major contributing factor, not the sole factor.

 Was this stability forecasted? Anyone know? And can stability caused by high solar even be predicted by wx models?

I don’t think that you could call it major since nothing like the upper and lower atmosphere temperature difference occurred at any solar max going back to 1950. Plus none of those seasons had the lull in development like this one did since mid-August near peak solar with such a strong +AMO. So it’s most likely other factors. Plus we never experienced a global temperature spike like we have since last year. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Really strong -PNA on todays 12z GEFS. +300dm, 594dm ridge in a few days. This is, not coincidentally, as ENSO subsurface is cooling again. 

We will have a near record breaking Aleutian ridge for March-Sept 2024, as ENSO subsurface has been near "Moderate Nina" range the whole time. 

Next 7 months (correlation is opposite):

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really strong -PNA on todays 12z GEFS. +300dm, 594dm ridge in a few days. This is, not coincidentally, as ENSO subsurface is cooling again. 

We will have a near record breaking Aleutian ridge for March-Sept 2024, as ENSO subsurface has been near "Moderate Nina" range the whole time. 

Next 7 months (correlation is opposite):

If only...

[rainsucks]

On 7/31/2024 at 11:08 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's interesting that the roll-forwards for warm CONUS Dec - June, and Dec - July, had August as a break month along with December.. This beats even CPC, who was very bullish on much above average temperatures a short time ago. Something to consider.. the roll forwards were very warm every month through March 2025, with Dec and August being only neutral. August looks like it will fit that pattern with a -EPO developing for some of the time. Doesn't mean Sept-Oct will be cool. 

I know it's very early still, but this appears to be progressing with near perfection thus far. August was indeed a relative "break month", and now it's looking as though Sept will be potentially record warm for a large section of the country.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

In fall 2011, when I was a student at Drexel, I read this book for one of my classes: 

I remember somewhere in the book where they talk about the winter of 1957-58 being very snowy and cold. 

1957-58 SUCKED here. If i was alive Id have been furious . Detroit finished the season with 18.0" of snow (still stands as 9th least snowy winter on record). The east was having all the fun. After a rainy December the rest of winter was very dry. It holds the record for the lowest "max" 24-hour snowfall (1.8", set several times that winter). No other winter before or since has failed to receive 2.0" of snow in 24 hours. 

Two stories of that season- my grandparents wedding was Feb 15, 1958. I heard there was a "blizzard" on her wedding day. Pics showed what look like a few inches of snow. Grandma insisted she remembered a blizzard (you know how that goes lol). Sure enough, records showed the 1.8" snowfall on Feb 15/16 here, but on their honeymoon in Niagra Falls, there were several feet on the ground per pics. The other story, my mom was born March 20, 1958. One of the newspaper headlines that day(cold and flurries here, a trace) was about a massive snowstorm burying the east. And how we were "lucky" the storm bypassed us.