2024-2025 La Nina

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I definitely think the high solar has something to do with it.

 But Phil has yet to say that the high solar is even a possible factor in the upper atmospheric warming. I had hoped he would in yesterday’s update. Not even a mention of solar. To their credit the two Joes at WxBell have been. I’m open to that possibility, especially about the idea of a theoretical lowered ceiling on ACE during very high solar seasons based on my own analysis, but would also like to see peer reviewed studies to either back it up or else refute it. I don’t want to depend on WxBell just saying it. I’m open minded. I had never heard of this possible connection til last week thanks to Joe D.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Interesting from the one link there they say the Earth orbit made it so that the Sahara region became a desert 6-11 thousand years ago and before that is was lush and with lakes, etc.  Is there any evidence of the earth's orbit possibly going back to resembling what it was back then?

Those greenings were the result of the more gradual temperature change associated with the orbital precession. They are working on newer modeling to handle the faster warming climate of today. So the pattern may vary from what slower changes in the orbit caused.
 

https://theconversation.com/the-sahara-desert-used-to-be-a-green-savannah-new-research-explains-why-216555#:~:text=These images depict a period,%2C Niger%2C Chad and Mali.

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 But Phil has yet to say that the high solar is even a possible factor in the upper atmospheric warming. I had hoped he would in yesterday’s update. Not even a mention of solar. To their credit the two Joes at WxBell have been. I’m open to that possibility, especially about the idea of a theoretical lowered ceiling on ACE during very high solar seasons based on my own analysis, but would also like to see peer reviewed studies to either back it up or else refute it. I don’t want to depend on WxBell just saying it. I’m open minded. I had never heard of this possible connection til last week thanks to Joe D.

Joe D used it to explain what happened with the 01-02 winter. He attributed the increased UV from the high solar flux/max heating the upper troposphere in the low and mid latitudes leading to the SPV shrinking and moving directly over the North Pole and causing the raging zonal PAC jet and very strong westerly flow that winter 

Link: https://www.weatherbell.com/newsletter-10-11-2011-f

[FPizz]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those greenings were the result of the more gradual temperature change associated with the orbital precession. They are working on newer modeling to handle the faster warming climate of today. So the pattern may vary from what slower changes in the orbit caused.
 

https://theconversation.com/the-sahara-desert-used-to-be-a-green-savannah-new-research-explains-why-216555#:~:text=These images depict a period,%2C Niger%2C Chad and Mali.

Thank you!  I'll read this later.  

[GaWx]

50 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Joe D used it to explain what happened with the 01-02 winter. He attributed the increased UV from the high solar flux/max heating the upper troposphere in the low and mid latitudes leading to the SPV shrinking and moving directly over the North Pole and causing the raging zonal PAC jet and very strong westerly flow that winter 

Link: https://www.weatherbell.com/newsletter-10-11-2011-f

 Thank you. From your link per Joe D.:

 “The only year since 1998 since I have been doing this which has significantly departed for the seasons was 2001/02 winter when a strong second solar max in terms of solar flux and UV warmed low and mioddle latitude atmospheres and shrunk the polar vortex.

I presented this at NWS regional winter workshops in the fall of 2002 and was invited the present that to CPC in Maryland. High ultraviolet produces warming through ozone chemistry, a finding that was speculated by Labitzke and van Loon (1997) and  confirmed by Hansen's super modeler Drew Shindell (1999) who included ozone chemistry and flux/UV in a special climate model and got improved verficiation retrospectively..They all found a tendency for the warmth to work its way down from the high atmosphere where to the middle troposphere where it affected the jet stream and flow patterns.

The peak in flux/UV in 2001/02 winter was very clear (from September 2001 to March 2002.

 

The resultant warming in the low and middle latiudes was likewise very clear. This is the 500mb height in February. This looks more like the southern hemispehre with a tight polar vortec in blue - trapping real cold air in the polarregions and a warm ring in low and middle latitudes.”

 

My concern is that he is showing only one period, the 2001-2 winter. For statistical credibility reasons, I’d like to see other years/analogs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 But Phil has yet to say that the high solar is even a possible factor in the upper atmospheric warming. I had hoped he would in yesterday’s update. Not even a mention of solar. To their credit the two Joes at WxBell have been. I’m open to that possibility, especially about the idea of a theoretical lowered ceiling on ACE during very high solar seasons based on my own analysis, but would also like to see peer reviewed studies to either back it up or else refute it. I don’t want to depend on WxBell just saying it. I’m open minded. I had never heard of this possible connection til last week thanks to Joe D.

I don't really care whether or not Phil endorses it.....I have seen enough to be confident that high solar caps ACE.

 

 

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't really care whether or not Phil endorses it.....I have seen enough to be confident that high solar caps ACE.

 

 

Don't you find it crazy that none of the "experts" mentioned it in their forecasts?  I will give them some slack with their original forecasts since the solar activity was supposed to peak by now and at a lower level. But I  would have thought that at least a few of them would have cautioned about it with updates before now. It just supports my skepticism with any long range (years, decade(s), etc.) temp forecasts. 

And if it's not at a point of certainty with the high solar effects, seems like even more skepticism for long range forecasting is warranted imho.

[raindancewx]

If we end up with very low ACE for this hurricane season, I'm probably going to blend in the -AMO/-PDO La Ninas with the modern La Ninas. There is just no way in hell this La Nina is going to be super similar to the hyper active / high ACE / +AMO years.

A lot of the cold neutrals actually have pretty high solar too. Those years should be incorporated too - 1959-60, 1966-67, 1967-68, 1980-81, 1989-90, 2001-2, 2013-14. The modern El Nino years with high Atlantic hurricane activity flipped are a good sanity test too, 2004, 2018, 2023.

We also tend to see exceptionally dry winters out here following heavy rain in September. No indication of any type of major rain event this month for us locally so far. 

Here is Mexico City in January 1967.  -AMO / -PDO, fairly high solar, near La Nina / cold neutral. Nino 3.4 was actually colder in August 1966 than August 2024. Cold penetrates much further south in the cold AMO.

[so_whats_happening]

14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If you look at when the upper tropospheric temps really started to rise, it was right when the solar flux/geomag and UV started spiking, not a coincidence
 

While Im sure Solar does have some impact you also see a rather large spike around the 2009-11 area this was during a solar min so not always does solar tell the tale so it seems. It may be a contributing factor in helping enhance whatever is going on at the time.

[so_whats_happening]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

One of the possibilities is that the record Mediterranean and North Atlantic SSTs can shift the ITCZ further north than usual.

 

Im not sure yet on the idea the N ATL is playing a role in moving ITCZ north but feel the Mediterranean warming so much is definitely an effect from a north moving cell. What may be causing that northward progression im not too sure and I don't believe many can pin point something so easily just yet. Have those countries on the north end of the Mediterranean seen any type of increase in drought conditions? I know this is hard to tell in a climo like they have but would be interesting to see if that is the case.

As you know with most things in this science we don't know the outcome until it has happened several times over and get a better understanding of what caused it. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It got down into the 40s here last night, and it will be close to that again tonight. The air also feels crisp, cold. I've seen a lot of lightning bugs dying. While we are still not technically in -AMO, I do agree with raindancewx that a colder pattern is coming forth, and this can't really be seen yet by global SSTs, but using cold-phase analogs may be a good way to go. I do think that if not by the Winter, then by the Spring there will be a cold pool somewhere. The problem is that the indicators are still pointing toward unfavorable indexes, but we'll see how that goes.. I have linked the +NAO, which has been near record breaking this year with -EPO, so that may be how it shows itself in future months. 

18z GEFS has a pretty strong -PNA/-PDO for the next 15 days, but sometimes when things are changing the previous state will flare up. 

I'm also suspicious of that Aura we saw in May. It seems that every color on the color spectrum was hit. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

CFS showing a cool November for the midwest and most of the East (this bodes well for a good winter): 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

CFS showing a cool November for the midwest and most of the East (this bodes well for a good winter): 

I would keep your pants on until we get within 30 days, but that is consistent with the idea of -WPO running the show early on, which I endorse.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

CFS showing a cool November for the midwest and most of the East (this bodes well for a good winter): 

Most Novembers since the 15-16 super El Niño have been cooler in the East. So there isn’t much we can draw from that specific forecast about the winter. Plus we don’t know yet whether we just revert to the recent November decadal  mean or this year does something different. We’ll have better clues after October. It’s been the only month of the year which has gone against the much warmer pattern.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Most Novembers since the 15-16 super El Niño have been cooler in the East. So there isn’t much we can draw from that specific forecast about the winter. Plus we don’t know yet whether we just revert to the recent November decadal  mean or this year does something different. We’ll have better clues after October. It’s been the only month of the year which has gone against the much warmer pattern.

 

 

I think if that pattern persisted into much of December it would be telling, as well.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Most Novembers since the 15-16 super El Niño have been cooler in the East. So there isn’t much we can draw from that specific forecast about the winter. Plus we don’t know yet whether we just revert to the recent November decadal  mean or this year does something different. We’ll have better clues after October. It’s been the only month of the year which has gone against the much warmer pattern.

 

 

Actually, since 2012 (the uber warm 2015 skewed everything): 

For what it's worth, all of these Decembers were warm:

Of course, January-March in those years were cold (not so much 2013, which was a bit cooler than average especially February and March, but 2014 and 2015 were historically cold): 

FWIW, the warmer Novembers since 2012 (aside from 2015) were 2016, 2020, and 2022. All of those years were central-based la ninas.

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think if that pattern persisted into much of December it would be telling, as well.

If the new Euro seasonal that just came out a few minutes ago is correct, then we’ll be looking at our 10th warmer winter in a row for the Northeast. Not really surprising given the very strong -PDO La Niña background state. The ridge axis near the Aleutians and near the East have become very persistent since the 15-16 super El Niño. 

[snowman19]

59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would keep your pants on until we get within 30 days, but that is consistent with the idea of -WPO running the show early on, which I endorse.

30 days? I wouldn’t take the CFS seriously for November until Halloween

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

While Im sure Solar does have some impact you also see a rather large spike around the 2009-11 area this was during a solar min so not always does solar tell the tale so it seems. It may be a contributing factor in helping enhance whatever is going on at the time.

I would think that transient spikes during a minimum period would have less important effects than a big spike during an overall solar max period over many months. Adding a cumulative effect that potentiates everything 

[40/70 Benchmark]

No question in my mind the AMO is getting ready to flip....its about every 30 years, so the periodicity aligns....1965-1995-2025. The PDO is also getting ready to flip simultaneously (1948-1977-1998-???) and I think you have to go back into the late 1800s to find the last time that they that occured.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

30 days? I wouldn’t take the CFS seriously for November until Halloween

Nah, it has been decent at 30 day intervals.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah, it has been decent at 30 day intervals.

The CFS monthly forecast only becomes somewhat reliable as we approach the first  of the given forecast month. My guess is this is because it’s mostly a repeater model. And does better when the early month pattern continues through the rest of the month. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the new Euro seasonal that just came out a few minutes ago is correct, then we’ll be looking at our 10th warmer winter in a row for the Northeast. Not really surprising given the very strong -PDO La Niña background state. The ridge axis near the Aleutians and near the East have become very persistent since the 15-16 super El Niño. 

I don't think anyone has a shred of doubt that most of the east is going to finish above average....I couldn't care less about that. But the question is whether or not it will be to a degree that is prohibitive to a respectable winter throughout at least the northeast.

Its like focusing on the fact that someone broke a nail in a 30 care pile up....forest through the trees. The relevent question is how serious are the injuries....no one gives a rat's ass anout the skinned knee.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The CFS monthly forecast only becomes somewhat reliable as we approach the first  of the given forecast month. My guess is this is because it’s mostly a repeater model. And does better when the early month pattern continues through the rest of the month. 

I haven't counted the days...all I know is that once we hit the preceeding month, the CFS has a decent conceptualization of how the next month will evolve.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1971-1972 could be a decent analog...I just don't like how La Nina died so early on in the winter season, which is probably at least partly why February was such a good month....maybe be an okay analog for the first half.

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the new Euro seasonal that just came out a few minutes ago is correct, then we’ll be looking at our 10th warmer winter in a row for the Northeast. Not really surprising given the very strong -PDO La Niña background state. The ridge axis near the Aleutians and near the East have become very persistent since the 15-16 super El Niño. 

If it’s correct then it’s a flat Aleutian ridge as opposed to a poleward one, which would support more of the status quo we’ve been seeing since 15-16. And @40/70 Benchmark my question is if the AMO is ABOUT to flip, can we use -AMO analogs for this winter? Or would the flip have to be complete (probably not till next summer, assuming that’s what indeed is happening) to see the long wave effects from it? I’m just reluctant to say it’s definitely flipping because of the 13-14 -AMO false alarm

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't counted the days...all I know is that once we hit the preceeding month, the CFS has a decent conceptualization of how the next month will evolve.

 

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think anyone has a shred of doubt that most of the east is going to finish above average....I couldn't care less about that. But the question is whether or not it will be to a degree that is prohibitive to a respectable winter throughout at least the northeast.

Its like focusing on the fact that someone broke a nail in a 30 care pile up....forest through the trees. The relevent question is how serious are the injuries....no one gives a rat's ass anout the skinned knee.

These seasonal forecasts can give the temperature tendency fairly well. But the smaller details they really don’t see very well. Most seasonal model forecasts have been biased too cool with the exception of a mismatch like 20-21 and Jan 22. But the clues about those winters became slightly better known only after October in 2020 but not until nearly the start of January in 22. My guess is that the models can’t handle the MJO amplitudes and changes much before the 6-10 and 11-15 day forecasts. My work has been to identify these model deficiencies and add corrections to them. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If it’s correct then it’s a flat Aleutian ridge as opposed to a poleward one, which would support more of the status quo we’ve been seeing since 15-16. And @40/70 Benchmark my question is if the AMO is ABOUT to flip, can we use -AMO analogs for this winter? Or would the flip have to be complete (probably not till next summer, assuming that’s what indeed is happening) to see the long wave effects from it? I’m just reluctant to say it’s definitely flipping because of the 13-14 -AMO false alarm

This is why periodicity is a great guide...I would have called BS on that flip over 10 years ago. As far as the incorporation of -AMO analogs this season, that is part of the art of seasonal forecasting. I have always blended them, anyway, but perhaps that wasn't/isn't always the best idea....probably part of the reason I have struggled lately.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If it’s correct then it’s a flat Aleutian ridge as opposed to a poleward one, which would support more of the status quo we’ve been seeing since 15-16. And @40/70 Benchmark my question is if the AMO is ABOUT to flip, can we use -AMO analogs for this winter? Or would the flip have to be complete (probably not till next summer, assuming that’s what indeed is happening) to see the long wave effects from it? I’m just reluctant to say it’s definitely flipping because of the 13-14 -AMO false alarm

Yeah, the AMO/PDO flip is going to look something like 2012-16. If something is underway, I think 2024-25 would be the 2012-13 stage. Next summer/fall is when the PDO would be starting to flip. The flip will be apparent by the summer of 2026. Crazy as it sounds, I think we could get the modoki el nino the CanSIPS was showing, but maybe for 2026-27, and that would be the lead up to the super el nino event in 2027-28. Only difference is that the PDO/AMO doesn't flip back like it did in 2016-17.

[bluewave]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No question in my mind the AMO is getting ready to flip....its about every 30 years, so the periodicity aligns....1965-1995-2025. The PDO is also getting ready to flip simultaneously (1948-1977-1998-???) and I think you have to go back into the late 1800s to find the last time that they that occured.

We have seen some counterpoints to the traditional AMO and PDO cycle discussions in recent years. The first one was when the AMO began shifting negative around 10 years ago especially more so on the Klotzbach index he developed. We noticed a strong warming of the NW Atlantic east of New England around this time which didn’t let the developing -AMO really take shape. Instead we shifted to all-time Atlantic warmth in the last few years which exceeded any historic precedent during +AMOs. Then we got the sharp and rapid shift to one of the strongest +PDO patterns in terms of SST and +NPM overlap in 13-14 into 15-16. Then this pattern suddenly reversed and transitioned to one of the strongest -PDOs off all time. But just as the warming of the NW Atlantic was different for past -AMOs, this is the first -PDO defined by the 2nd eof and record SST warmth to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians. So in effect competing marine heatwaves have altered past -PDO, +PDO, -AMO, and +AMO expectations. My guess is that we continue to see competing marine heat waves alter past expectations of ENSO, AMO, and -PDO. While these indices can sway from negative to positive, it may not look like what we used to get in the past.