2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

My gut is that this Atlantic hurricane season ends below 150 ACE, possibly way below that….

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

My gut is that this Atlantic hurricane season ends below 150 ACE, possibly way below that….
 

This make sense given the expectation for a meager winter and the penchant for hyper tropical activity to coincide with low solar.

[snowman19]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This make sense given the expectation for a meager winter and the penchant for hyper tropical activity to coincide with low solar.

If this season does turn into an epic bust (ACE below to well below 150), the question is why and I think it goes beyond an “Atlantic Niña”/possible very early stages of an AMO shift). Was it this record high solar flux/sunspots and geomag? I think that’s playing a huge role; increased high UV heating the low and mid latitude’s upper troposphere’s causing stabilization. Did the Ruang volcanic eruptions in April also play some role? Possibly, but likely minor

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If this season does turn into an epic bust (ACE below to well below 150), the question is why and I think it goes beyond an “Atlantic Niña”/possible very early AMO shift). Was it this record high solar flux/sunspots and geomag? I think that’s playing a huge role; increased high UV heating the low and mid latitude’s upper troposphere’s causing stabilization. Did the Ruang volcanic eruptions in April also play some role? Possibly, but likely minor

Is there any peer reviewed study done that actually confirms that high solar warms the upper troposphere significantly and more than lower levels like Joe D’Aleo is implying? If so, please provide a link.

[snowman19]

It would probably have to be an east-based la nina like 2021-22, but the mismatch happening in December, rather than January. ACY would hit a snow jackpot in December in this case, but nothing for the rest of the season.

East-based is not happening. That ship has sailed. No models ever showed an east-based event and none do now. In fact, the new CANSIPS has region 1+2 with warm anomalies this winter. From Raindance:

[GaWx]

 Fwiw, this CANSIPS map for Aug of 2025 implies a developing Modoki El Niño in time for ‘25-26. Opinions? @PhiEaglesfan712

@snowman19

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 Fwiw, this CANSIPS map for Aug of 2025 implies a developing Modoki El Niño. Opinions? @snowman19

Too far out to think about but maybe? Especially if there’s a PDO flip next summer. As far as peer reviewed studies on Joe D’Aleo’s theory, I haven’t seen any personally, however given the very warm upper troposphere temps in the low and mid latitudes right now, the fact that we saw the exact same thing back in 01-02 with the last big solar max, I have to believe that there is truth to it. Joe is not one to be that confident in something without having good evidence to back up his claims 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Fwiw, this CANSIPS map for Aug of 2025 implies a developing Modoki El Niño in time for ‘25-26. Opinions? @PhiEaglesfan712

@snowman19

I highly doubt an el nino is going to form in summer 2025, especially considering the subsurface was cold this summer. Plus, we are still in a deep cyclical -PDO pattern. An el nino is very unlikely to form under those conditions. Maybe if next summer the subsurface is warm and we have an ENSO neutral or dissipating la nina conditions in late winter/early spring 2026, I might entertain the thought of an el nino forming for 2026-27.

El ninos just do not pop up overnight. Their conditions are built under the surface over time. Sometimes, the conditions stay there for several years before they unleash their fury (just look at the years leading up to 1957-58 or the 3 years before 2015-16). You'll know when an el nino is coming, and sometimes years in advance. The conditions for an el nino aren't close to being there.

[raindancewx]

These cold shots in the East are actually consistent with the pseudo Modoki El Nino look we have at the moment. Nino 3/3.4 aren't really below 1961-2020 averages meaningfully, but Nino 4 is well above 1961-2020 averages.

Looks like we'll make it to 9/5 without a tropical storm. Phil K was saying first time since 1968 we've gone without a storm from Aug 13-Sept 3.

https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1830918338458923381

We'll see what happens, but La Nina with Atlantic August-September ACE under ~40 or so (<50% of average) has to be a major hint for the winter. It looks like 1931, 1934, 1946, 1956, 1959, 1962, 1970, 1973, 1983, 1984, 2013 are low ACE Aug/Sept, cold ENSO since 1931.

1934/1959 are true blue neutral. But the cold-neutral / La Nina years are similar to my thinking - as are the most recent five years. We'd have to stay under 76 ACE through 9/30 for this to work. The middle picture is pretty close to what I'd expect for cold severity if everything clicked correctly. But I'd dim it down to both modern averages and to constrain the extent.

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, raindancewx said:

These cold shots in the East are actually consistent with the pseudo Modoki El Nino look we have at the moment. Nino 3/3.4 aren't really below 1961-2020 averages meaningfully, but Nino 4 is well above 1961-2020 averages.

Looks like we'll make it to 9/5 without a tropical storm. Phil K was saying first time since 1968 we've gone without a storm from Aug 13-Sept 3.

https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1830918338458923381

We'll see what happens, but La Nina with Atlantic ACE under ~40 or so (<50% of average) has to be a major hint for the winter. It looks like 1931, 1934, 1946, 1956, 1959, 1962, 1970, 1973, 1983, 1984, 2013 are low ACE Aug/Sept, cold ENSO since 1931.

1934/1959 are true blue neutral. But the cold-neutral / La Nina years are similar to my thinking - as are the most recent five years. We'd have to stay under 76 ACE through 9/30 for this to work. The middle picture is pretty close to what I'd expect for cold severity if everything clicked correctly. But I'd dim it down to both modern averages and to constrain the extent.

This is very interesting. Those years of low ACE were ALL decent to good to great winters here with the HUGE exception of 1931-32.

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO is a carbon copy of 2022-2023...wow. Just a hair less amplified with the RNA, which could still work for a lot of NE.

 

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

JMA has a similar pattern, but less amplified than the EURO

Those are August forecasts. Let's see what happens when September forecasts are out...God help us!

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

Those are August forecasts. Let's see what happens when September forecasts are out...God help us!

Should be out Thursday. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

These cold shots in the East are actually consistent with the pseudo Modoki El Nino look we have at the moment. Nino 3/3.4 aren't really below 1961-2020 averages meaningfully, but Nino 4 is well above 1961-2020 averages.

Looks like we'll make it to 9/5 without a tropical storm. Phil K was saying first time since 1968 we've gone without a storm from Aug 13-Sept 3.

https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1830918338458923381

We'll see what happens, but La Nina with Atlantic August-September ACE under ~40 or so (<50% of average) has to be a major hint for the winter. It looks like 1931, 1934, 1946, 1956, 1959, 1962, 1970, 1973, 1983, 1984, 2013 are low ACE Aug/Sept, cold ENSO since 1931.

1934/1959 are true blue neutral. But the cold-neutral / La Nina years are similar to my thinking - as are the most recent five years. We'd have to stay under 76 ACE through 9/30 for this to work. The middle picture is pretty close to what I'd expect for cold severity if everything clicked correctly. But I'd dim it down to both modern averages and to constrain the extent.

Looks like the CFS and CANSIPS.

I included 1970 in my preliminary polar analog composite, as it was a high solar La Nina. Don't love the +PDO look of some of those years, though. 

[bluewave]

The current cooler pattern in the East is due to the stronger MJO 5-6 region forcing than we have usually had in recent early Septembers. It’s one of the few times of the year when it’s actually a cool signal for us. Could also be combining with other factors previously discussed in this thread keeping the Atlantic unusually quiet.  Since there continues to be sinking air and the AEW wave train is pushed further north than usual into the Sahara.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Of course, Bluewave's state of the art optimism alert system promptly made him aware and he arrives on the scene in short order to fill the collective cheerios with urine.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Of course, Bluewave's state of the art optimism alert system promptly made him aware and he arrives on the scene in short order to fill the collective cheerios with urine.

I am just trying to keep it real. The only time that optimism or pessimism are relevant is when you can have some impact on the outcome. We still haven’t devised a weather control device yet.

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The current cooler pattern in the East is due to the stronger MJO 5-6 region forcing than we have usually had in recent early Septembers. It’s one of the few times of the year when it’s actually a cool signal for us. Could also be combining with other factors previously discussed in this thread keeping the Atlantic unusually quiet.  Since there continues to be sinking air and the AEW wave train is pushed further north than usual into the Sahara.

if you looping this ...  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml

... one may see that that uvm anom distribution has predominated since well prior to that, or any particular mjo for that matter - which was incoherent prior.   as well, technically at present we are not in or aft of a phase 5 or 6 as of yet. 

that doesn't strike me as mjo causally linked to phase 5-6.  

it may be that phase 5-6 correlates well, but since the 'standing wave' nature of that anom distribution predates the mjo presentation, it leaps out as coincidence - perhaps some feedback ( constructive interference ) moving forward, notwithstanding.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I am just trying to keep it real. The only time that optimism or pessimism are relevant is when you can have some impact on the outcome. We still haven’t devised a weather control device yet.

I know...I have come to agree with most of your stuff. I just laugh because otherwise I'd cry.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

if you looping this ...  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml

... one may see that that uvm anom distribution has predominated since well prior to that, or any particular mjo for that matter - which was incoherent prior.   as well, technically at present we are not in or aft of a phase 5 or 6 as of yet. 

that doesn't strike me as mjo causally linked to phase 5-6.  

it may be that phase 5-6 correlates well, but since the 'standing wave' nature of that anom distribution predates the mjo presentation, it leaps out as coincidence - perhaps some feedback ( constructive interference ) moving forward, notwithstanding.

The forcing shifting from the IO toward the Maritime Continent has been going on the last few weeks. The RMM charts have been pretty noisy. But the VP anomalies match the expected pattern progression this time of year. Plus there is often a lagged response so it’s no surprise the late August Maritime Continent forcing has manifested last few days.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The current cooler pattern in the East is due to the stronger MJO 5-6 region forcing than we have usually had in recent early Septembers. It’s one of the few times of the year when it’s actually a cool signal for us. Could also be combining with other factors previously discussed in this thread keeping the Atlantic unusually quiet.  Since there continues to be sinking air and the AEW wave train is pushed further north than usual into the Sahara.

I remember September 2020 being on the cool end. Did we also have stronger MJO 5-6 region forcing that year?

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I remember September 2020 being on the cool end. Did we also have stronger MJO 5-6 region forcing that year?

Yeah, the strongest forcing that month near MJO 5 was right before the coldest part of the month around the 20th. It occurred about 2-3 weeks later than we are seeing this year. 

 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Too far out to think about but maybe? Especially if there’s a PDO flip next summer. As far as peer reviewed studies on Joe D’Aleo’s theory, I haven’t seen any personally, however given the very warm upper troposphere temps in the low and mid latitudes right now, the fact that we saw the exact same thing back in 01-02 with the last big solar max, I have to believe that there is truth to it. Joe is not one to be that confident in something without having good evidence to back up his claims 

 Looking more closely, this new CANSIPS is forecasting Aug of 2025’s Nino 3.4 to be ~+1.0C unadjusted or ~.+0.5C adjusted downward for surrounding warmth. It has Nino 3.4 warmest and Nino 4 2nd warmest (only modestly cooler). So, it literally has a Modoki Nino forming by late summer. Of course fwiw due to very low probability of being accurate that far out. I can see it now. @George001titles next year’s main ENSO forecast thread “2025-6 Modoki El Nino”. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know...I have come to agree with most of your stuff. I just laugh because otherwise I'd cry.

The last thing I want to do is make anyone sad. Just hoping we can get some degree of mismatch between this very strong -PDO and the pattern this coming winter. The 21-22 winter was a very interesting case. We didn’t get the strong MJO 5 signal that October which usually preceded our better La Niña winters. December was one of our warmest La Niña Decembers with the historic +13 at DFW. It was one of our strongest -PNA Decembers and the Aleutian ridge that month was one of the strongest on record. But we got the MJO 8 leading to the -EPO +PNA in January which really salvaged the winter from going the way that 22-23 did. That’s one example of a mismatch. But there could be a variety of other ways we haven’t seen yet since we are dealing in small sample sizes in this new much warmer era.While it may hard to shift the record 9 warmer than normal winters in a row pattern, I am hoping we get a chance next winter to better the 22-23 and 23-24 snowfall outcomes. Since there is more variance with snow we’ll just look for any opportunities we can get. But if the Aleutian Ridge and Southeast Ridge combo grows too strong yet again, then there is the chance that the winter could go the way of the last two. But not yet ready to give up on rolling the dice for at least a better snowfall outcome than the last two. Those details may not be known until we at least see how December goes. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

56 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Looking more closely, this new CANSIPS is forecasting Aug of 2025’s Nino 3.4 to be ~+1.0C unadjusted or ~.+0.5C adjusted downward for surrounding warmth. It has Nino 3.4 warmest and Nino 4 2nd warmest (only modestly cooler). So, it literally has a Modoki Nino forming by late summer. Of course fwiw due to very low probability of being accurate that far out. I can see it now. @George001titles next year’s main ENSO forecast thread “2025-6 Modoki El Nino”. 

An el nino of +1.0C is almost certainly not going to happen in 2025-26. I think the only time we got an el nino of that strength with a cold subsurface the previous summer was 1994-95, when the subsurface in summer of 1993 looked like this:

[raindancewx]

MJO phase five won't do what it has done in recent winters if the WPO is in the opposite phase.

[so_whats_happening]

7 hours ago, raindancewx said:

These cold shots in the East are actually consistent with the pseudo Modoki El Nino look we have at the moment. Nino 3/3.4 aren't really below 1961-2020 averages meaningfully, but Nino 4 is well above 1961-2020 averages.

This very much, I was saying something about this a week or so ago that the northern hemisphere even with the -PDO had a fairly Nino like look to it. The NAO domain was in near opposites to last year but everything else almost a near match in the northern hemisphere. The NAO is probably the big reason why the hurricane season has been rather lack luster in the Atlantic for the last month. Big reason why the Atlantic was going nuts with storms in an El Nino was the ability to have a -NAO during August into September and the SST's were rather primed as well. We didn't have many go west of the Islands but the number of storms was there.

What is funny enough though is last year was also rather cool in August but our MJO was moving through 7/8/1. This is really starting to further a point of maybe there really is a strong disconnect between tropics and mid latitudes. 1 year won't determine everything of course but it is interesting to see none the less. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

MJO phase five won't do what it has done in recent winters if the WPO is in the opposite phase.

I was mentioning that is a new twist this season per the CANSIPS and CFS and why they are colder.

[raindancewx]

We'll see what CPC says, but supposedly record +NAO in August. That's actually a fairly widespread, though not particularly strong, cold signal for the US in Nov-Jan.

https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1831059382450499794

A lot of deeper blues over the West in December. I'd have to look, but maybe that's how the hurricane and cold air wave thing works in the West. Maybe the +NAO Augusts kill the hurricane season? I've never looked really. -NAO August is probably more common in La Nina if I had to guess.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Haven't you posted on several occasions something to the effect that +NAO has been coinciding with +PNA and -NAO with RNA??

Since 2013, and more since 2019 (I would say 0.30 correlation since 2013 and 0.40 correlation since 2019), -nao has coincided with -pna/+epo and +nao has coincided with +pna/-nao. I bet you will see this tendency again this coming cold season. I only fear with the NAO, that we have exhausted all of the +NAO already this year, as it made a pretty good leap over the past few years. Sometimes it will bounce back around on the monthly scale. Dec 2021 was a good example of this.. +600dm RNA, broke the record by quite a bit, then January '22 featured the opposite pattern, despite a La Nina. 

A cold 10mb vortex though could amplify High pressure where the Polar Cell and mid-latitude Cell's meet. similar to how it gets warm right before a cold front passes. 

Put them together I guess.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Fwiw, Phoenix has had 100 straight 100 degree days. The only three times it ever did it over 50 days were 1993 (76), 1989 (64), and 1935 (61) [donsutherland in the climate change forum]

These are cold December's in the composite

Feb 1936 lol

 

#4 and #5 in December

Edit: I see it's a progression. Well those are the top years for the record at that point. I'm sure we've had plenty of >20 days in the last few decades.