40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: The funny thing is the Euro did a great job with the U.S. summer temperature forecast. But the forecast of over 20 named storms and 200 ACE was too high in the tropical Atlantic. So it’s interesting that the model can hone in on one set of circumstances but completely miss another. As for next winter, we would need some type of mismatch which would mute or shift the predominant -PDO pattern all the seasonal models have. So not sure if what happened in the Atlantic will be relevant beyond some extra SST warmth and fewer wave breaking events in the North Atlantic from a large number of tropical systems. My guess is that the very high ACE years created these wave breaks which lead to more -NAO development and better snowfall outcomes. But we are missing that this year so far. We would need some type of big mismatch for next winter to shift off of this type of look. This summer featured one of the strongest ridges south of the Aleutians and near New England .So the seasonal models really focus in on the Aleutian Ridge and Southeast Ridge next winter. But as always we’ll need to see what actually happens with the atmosphere next winter to know if the models are onto the correct idea. At the very least it looks like this will be our 10th warmer than normal winter in a row for the Northeast in places like NYC. But the details including the magnitude of the warmth and how much snow are difficult to guess at before we get more clues in the coming months. Yes, we have heard about 746 times about this mismatch needed to ever snow again below the latitude of Caribou, ME. I wasn't challenging anything. Simply speaking anecdotally. I will go out on a limb and say its not going to be warmer or have less snow than last season....those images could be worse for NE. That looks like some pretty decent poleward Aleutian ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, we have heard about 746 times about this mismatch needed to ever snow again below the latitude of Caribou, ME. I wasn't challenging anything. Simply speaking anecdotally. I will do out on a limb and say its not going to be warmer or have less snow than last season. Snowfall is always tricky going into a seasonal forecast since one storm can make a big difference. While NYC and Boston obviously missed out last few seasons, we did get that localized stationary snowband over Central NJ. So while the general temperature tendency can be easier to detect for the seasonal models, snowfall forecast is usually more challenging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 Just now, bluewave said: Snowfall is always tricky going into a seasonal forecast since one storm can make a big difference. While NYC and Boston obviously missed out last few seasons, we did get that localized stationary snowband over Central NJ. So while the general temperature tendency can be easier to detect for the seasonal models, snowfall can be tricky. Yes, this why snowflall has a ton of variance. But for say about the latitude of CNE points north, those charts don't even look that bad to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: The funny thing is the Euro did a great job with the U.S. summer temperature forecast. But the forecast of over 20 named storms and 200 ACE was too high in the tropical Atlantic. So it’s interesting that the model can hone in on one set of circumstances but completely miss another. As for next winter, we would need some type of mismatch which would mute or shift the predominant -PDO pattern all the seasonal models have. So not sure if what happened in the Atlantic will be relevant beyond some extra SST warmth and fewer wave breaking events in the North Atlantic from a large number of tropical systems. My guess is that the very high ACE years created these wave breaks which lead to more -NAO development and better snowfall outcomes. But we are missing that this year so far. We would need some type of big mismatch for next winter to shift off of this type of look. This summer featured one of the strongest ridges south of the Aleutians and near New England .So the seasonal models really focus in on the Aleutian Ridge and Southeast Ridge next winter. But as always we’ll need to see what actually happens with the atmosphere next winter to know if the models are onto the correct idea. At the very least it looks like this will be our 10th warmer than normal winter in a row for the Northeast in places like NYC. But the details including the magnitude of the warmth and how much snow are difficult to guess at before we get more clues in the coming months. My point being that I will take what is posted above over this knowing how useless the NAO has been in the face of an uttelry hostile Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: The funny thing is the Euro did a great job with the U.S. summer temperature forecast. But the forecast of over 20 named storms and 200 ACE was too high in the tropical Atlantic. So it’s interesting that the model can hone in on one set of circumstances but completely miss another. As for next winter, we would need some type of mismatch which would mute or shift the predominant -PDO pattern all the seasonal models have. So not sure if what happened in the Atlantic will be relevant beyond some extra SST warmth and fewer wave breaking events in the North Atlantic from a large number of tropical systems. My guess is that the very high ACE years created these wave breaks which lead to more -NAO development and better snowfall outcomes. But we are missing that this year so far. We would need some type of big mismatch for next winter to shift off of this type of look. This summer featured one of the strongest ridges south of the Aleutians and near New England .So the seasonal models really focus in on the Aleutian Ridge and Southeast Ridge next winter. But as always we’ll need to see what actually happens with the atmosphere next winter to know if the models are onto the correct idea. At the very least it looks like this will be our 10th warmer than normal winter in a row for the Northeast in places like NYC. But the details including the magnitude of the warmth and how much snow are difficult to guess at before we get more clues in the coming months. looks horrific and expected 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 The mean seasonal RNA is not going to be that amplified again and there is nothing anybody can say that will convince me otherwise. Just out of sheer probability alone, nevermind La Nina being significantly weaker....regardless of how intense the PDO remains. Lipstick on a pig, certaintly, but it is what it is and I will take my chances relative to last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 December looks pretty -WPO to me....I think that could even work into the northern mid atl. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 Even assuming the model is a bit too cold by default due to CC....this is a horrific January? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 February...call me crazy, but I wouldn't call this horrific for the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 Bias comes in a multitude of different varieties for a plethora of various reasons...we need to be just every bit as mindful of not allowing a recency bias to team with growing frustration to compomise objectivity as we do our innate desires and preferences. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My point being that I will take what is posted above over this knowing how useless the NAO has been in the face of an uttelry hostile Pacific. Can my winter look like this instead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, this why snowflall has a ton of variance. But for say about the latitude of CNE points north, those charts don't even look that bad to me. Sure. There can always be a big difference in snowfall for CNE and points north and NYC. 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My point being that I will take what is posted above over this knowing how useless the NAO has been in the face of an uttelry hostile Pacific. That’s why it has been more important to get a favorable Pacific in 20-21 and Jan 22 than we got with the blocking patterns in Dec 22 and Mar 23. We used to be able to get by with a hostile Pacific with -AO -NAO like we had from the 50s into early 70s when the SSTs to our east were much colder. Now we just get the Greenland Block linking up with the Southeast Ridge around storm time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 Just now, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Can my winter look like this instead: I don't think that pattern would evolve very favorably given winter wavelengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Sure. There can always be a big difference in snowfall for CNE and points north and NYC. That’s why it has been more important to get a favorable Pacific in 20-21 and Jan 22 than we got with the blocking patterns in Dec 22 and Mar 23. We used to be able to get by with a hostile Pacific with -AO -NAO like we had from the 50s into early 70s when the SSTs to our east were much colder. Now we just get the Greenland Block linking up with the Southeast Ridge around storm time. This is something I have come around on...I was skeptical of it a couple of years ago. However, I still don't think well placed blocking is as futile as it has appeared the past few years, as there also has been some shit luck involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Even assuming the model is a bit too cold by default due to CC....this is a horrific January? These looks like pretty typical la nina forecasts to me. Colder than avg in the already cold north and warner than avg in the already warm south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 20 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: These looks like pretty typical la nina forecasts to me. Colder than avg in the already cold north and warner than avg in the already warm south. Big difference from 2022-2023 is the WPO, as I intimated above and raindance has been hinting at all off season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 I neglected the WPO that season and it completely burned me, so I would caution against doing that for those pessimists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 I like the orientation of the PV, though that is tough to predict on a seasnal level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is something I have come around on...I was skeptical of it a couple of years ago. However, I still don't think well placed blocking is as futile as it has appeared the past few years, as there also has been some shit luck involved. The one early snowfall indicator which has worked for every La Niña winter in NYC going back to the 95-96 has been the December La Niña snowfall. Years with 3 or more inches December have gone on to above normal seasonal snowfall. Every December with under 3” has had a below average snowfall season. This is why December is so important with La Ninas around NYC. 22-23….Dec snow…..T……season….2.3 21-22…..Dec snow….0.2…season…..17.9 20-21…..Dec snow….10.5…season…38.6 17-18……Dec snow….7.7…..season…40.9 16-17…….Dec snow…3.2…..season…30.2 11-12…….Dec snow….0…….season….7.4 10-11…….Dec snow….20.1….season….61.9 08-09…..Dec snow….6.0……season….27.6 07-08…..Dec snow…..2.9…..season….11.9 05-06…..Dec snow…..9.7…….season…40.0 00-01……Dec snow….13.4……season….35.0 99-00…..Dec snow…..T……….season….16.3 98-99…..Dec snow…..2.0……..season….12.7 95-96…..Dec snow…..11.5……..season….75.6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Haven't you posted on several occasions something to the effect that +NAO has been coinciding with +PNA and -NAO with RNA?? I analyzed pna nao cycles earlier in the season, it was something like 10-12% of the time did we have a +PNA/-NAO couplet the past 10 winters or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: The one early snowfall indicator which has worked for every La Niña winter in NYC going back to the 95-96 has been the December La Niña snowfall. Years with 3 or more inches December have gone on to above normal seasonal snowfall. Every December with under 3” has had a below average snowfall season. This is why December is so important with La Ninas around NYC. 22-23….Dec snow…..T……season….2.3 21-22…..Dec snow….0.2…season…..17.9 20-21…..Dec snow….10.5…season…38.6 17-18……Dec snow….7.7…..season…40.9 16-17…….Dec snow…3.2…..season…30.2 11-12…….Dec snow….0…….season….7.4 10-11…….Dec snow….20.1….season….61.9 08-09…..Dec snow….6.0……season….27.6 07-08…..Dec snow…..2.9…..season….11.9 05-06…..Dec snow…..9.7…….season…40.0 00-01……Dec snow….13.4……season….35.0 99-00…..Dec snow…..T……….season….16.3 98-99…..Dec snow…..2.0……..season….12.7 95-96…..Dec snow…..11.5……..season….75.6 Watch, NYC will get 10" this December and a trace the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like the orientation of the PV, though that is tough to predict on a seasnal level. CFS looks even better, but qualitatively similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 EURO is a carbon copy of 2022-2023...wow. Just a hair less amplified with the RNA, which could still work for a lot of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 JMA has a similar pattern, but less amplified than the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 JMA has warmer anaomlies in the north...not sure I agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Watch, NYC will get 10" this December and a trace the rest of the season. It would probably have to be an east-based la nina like 2021-22, but the mismatch happening in December, rather than January. ACY would hit a snow jackpot in December in this case, but nothing for the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Big difference from 2022-2023 is the WPO, as I intimated above and raindance has been hinting at all off season. I am not too familiar with the WPO but obviously it makes a difference (there are SO many indicies, I used to think the only ones were the NAO and MJO lol). This map is a good example of the battleground that a temp contrast can do. Minneapolis had one of their snowiest winters on record in 2022-23, being the battleground between warm & cold. We did ok in 2022-23 despite the warmth, finishing only slightly below avg in snowfall (and at that, snowfall was MUCH wetter and lower ratio than normal, so the precip was there). This is another example, and you have pointed it out as well, that regardless of warmth, there is a certain latitudinal line where once you go north of it, if you get the precip, you will get the snow. Snowcover often suffers far more than actual snowfall in northern locations in warm winters. Another thing, you give the atmosphere the temp contrasts of a cold north and a warm south, and add in an active storm track, then you will have some great winter storms. Though I know we look better here in the great lakes than the east, I just dont think it will be as bad on the east coast as some make it sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: JMA has warmer anaomlies in the north...not sure I agree with that. What's the best JMA link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: What's the best JMA link? https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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