2024-2025 La Nina

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you look at most of the hyper ACE seasons, they were near solar min...just like neg NAO .

Thanks, Ray. Great point. I’m going to look more closely now to see if I can confirm your suspicions about hyper seasons tending to be near solar min.
 

 Here are the 13 ATL seasons with 180+ ACE along with ASO averaged monthly sunspots:

1878: 5 (min)

1887: 20 (quiet)

1893: 160 (max)

1926: 110 (1.5 yrs before max)

1933: 5 (min)

1950: 95 (halfway from max to min)

1961: 75 (halfway from max to min)

1995: 20 (nearing min)

1998: 110 (2 years after min)

2004: 65 (3 years after max)

2005: 35 (quiet/3 years before min)

2017: 30 (quiet/2 years before min)

2020: 10 (just after min)

 So, of the 13 180+ ACE seasons, 7 had low sunspots, 3 had near avg, and 3 had above avg. though only one of those 3 had well above avg (1893) like 2024. And 2024 has an excellent shot at exceeding the 160 of 1893 since Aug was 215. It could end up near 200 for all we know now. I’d say 175+ is pretty safe.

 The avg monthly of these 13 seasons’ ASO sunspots was only ~55, which is well under the 1900-2022 avg of ~85 for all months.

 When looking at ASO averaged monthly sunspots of 135+, the only other high ACE were the 166 of 1969 (ASO sunspots avg 135), the 149 of 1980 (ASO sunspots avg of 215), and the 177 of 1999 (ASO sunspot avg of 140). So, the highest ACE during a 200+ ASO (edit: actually 175+) sunspot avg was only 149 (1980).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s the first time in known history that a El Niño summer ahead of a winter ONI of +2.0 or greater had 7 named storms and 2 category 4 hurricanes develop between August 20th and 31st to be followed by a developing La Niña the next summer with no new storms during this period. 
 

2023

New developments between 8-20 and 8-31

TS Gert

TS Emily

Cat 4 Franklin 

TS Harold 

Cat 4 Idalia 

TS Jose 

TS Katina 

 

2024 

No new developments 
 

I'm still salty about Idalia not getting retired. Lesser storms in the past have gotten retired. I guess the WMO changed the criteria and made it harder for storms to be retired. If Idalia didn't get retired, I highly doubt Debbie or Ernesto will. I think only really big storms, like Beryl, will be retired going forward.

[GaWx]

Since 1851 here are the 19 years with 175+ sunspot avg during ASO (11% of the years), where 2024 is very likely headed, along with their respective ACE (* means El Niño (including incoming) season):

1859: 56

1860: 62

1870: 88

1917: 61

1937: 66

1947: 88

1948: 95

1949: 96

1956: 57

*1957: 79

*1958: 110

1959: 77

*1979: 93

1980: 149

1981: 100

1989: 135

1990: 97 

*1991: 36

2001: 110

AVG ACE for ASO sunspots >175: 82 (near longterm avg)(same if throw out El Niño seasons)

Highest ACE for ASO sunspots >175: 149

 

[GaWx]

 Since 1851 here are the 18 years with 10 or lower sunspot avg during ASO (10% of the years): (* means El Niño (including incoming) season)

*1855: 18

1856: 49

1878: 181

*1888: 85

1901: 99

*1911: 34

1912: 57

*1913: 36

1933: 259

1954: 111

1964: 153

1996: 166

2007: 74

2008: 146

*2009: 53

*2018: 133

2019: 132

2020: 180

AVG ACE for 18 years of 10- ASO sunspots: 104 (significantly > longterm avg)

AVG ACE for 12 non-Nino years of 10- ASO sunspots: 124 (much > longterm avg)

 

 So, analysis of this post and post just above this for non-El Niño seasons  only:

- avg ACE was 124 for the twelve 10- ASO sunspot seasons

- avg ACE was 82 for the nineteen 175+ ASO sunspot seasons

- Whereas none of the 15 non-El Nino seasons with 175+ ASO sunspots had 150+ ACE, five of the 13 non-El Nino (38%) 10- sunspot seasons had 150+ ACE.

 

 Conclusions from the analysis in my 3 sunspot/ACE -correlation related posts:

-I think @40/70 Benchmark’s idea about the tendency for high ACE seasons to be near solar min has a lot of merit and is backed up pretty well with the above data. That may also mean it is going to be difficult for 2024 or a typical future year with ASO sunspots >175 to get to 175+ ACE (or maybe even just 150+ ACE) despite other very favorable factors like La Niña and near record warm Atlantic MDR SSTs.

-I think the research that Joe D’Aleo mentioned about the tendency for a strong solar spike to hamper hurricane activity via a lowering of instability due to warming of the upper atmosphere should be investigated further as quite possibly being one of the main reasons for the recent quiet. I read elsewhere about it being quite warm.

@snowman19

Sources of data:

Sunspots: https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

ACE: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

ENSO pre 1950: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

ENSO 1950+: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

[snowman19]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Since 1851 here are the 18 years with 10 or lower sunspot avg during ASO (10% of the years): (* means El Niño season)

*1855: 18

1856: 49

1878: 181

*1888: 85

1901: 99

*1911: 34

1912: 57

*1913: 36

1933: 259

1954: 111

1964: 153

1996: 166

2007: 74

2008: 146

*2009: 53

*2018: 133

2019: 132

2020: 180

AVG ACE for 18 years of 10- ASO sunspots: 104 (significantly > longterm avg)

AVG ACE for 12 non-Nino years of 10- ASO sunspots: 124 (much > longterm avg)

 

 So, analysis of this post and post just above this for non-El Niño seasons only:

- avg ACE was 124 for the twelve 10- ASO sunspot seasons

- avg ACE was 82 for the nineteen 175+ ASO sunspot seasons

- Whereas none of the 15 non-El Nino seasons with 175+ ACE had 150+ ACE, five of the 13 (38%) 10- seasons had 150+ ACE.

 

 Conclusions from the analysis in my 3 sunspot/ACE -correlation related posts:

-I think @40/70 Benchmark’s idea about the tendency for high ACE seasons to be near solar min has a lot of merit and is backed up pretty well with the above data. That may also mean it is going to be difficult for 2024 or a typical future year with ASO sunspots >175 to get to 175+ ACE (or maybe even just 150+ ACE) despite other very favorable factors like La Niña and near record warm Atlantic MDR SSTs.

-I think the research that Joe D’Aleo mentioned about the tendency for a strong solar spike to hamper hurricane activity via a lowering of instability due to warming of the upper atmosphere should be investigated further as quite possibly being one of the main reasons for the recent quiet. I read elsewhere about it being quite warm.

@snowman19

This (solar cycle) is exactly what happened back in 01-02. The incoming UV from the high solar flux warms the low and mid latitude’s upper troposphere’s

@donsutherland1

[PhiEaglesfan712]

At this point, I bet we don't even reach the 140 ACE of 2016.

[raindancewx]

At this point I'd say it's 50/50 we reach 125 ACE for the year in the Atlantic.

Over 150, I'd go 1/4 odds. Same for under 100.

My gut is 80-140 for the season. I don't think we're going to see much at all from African waves. Gulf & Caribbean should continue to produce into October or even November.

A lot of the very active Atlantic seasons get pretty cool in August in the middle of the country. We saw that briefly this year but it didn't last. No one really finished more than a degree (F) below average in August. You had pretty widespread chilly Augusts in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2016, 2017

Subsurface remained at -0.65 for August. 

[snowman19]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

Since 1851 here are the 19 years with 175+ sunspot avg during ASO (11% of the years), where 2024 is very likely headed, along with their respective ACE (* means El Niño (including incoming) season):

1859: 56

1860: 62

1870: 88

1917: 61

1937: 66

1947: 88

1948: 95

1949: 96

1956: 57

*1957: 79

*1958: 110

1959: 77

*1979: 93

1980: 149

1981: 100

1989: 135

1990: 97 

*1991: 36

2001: 110

AVG ACE for ASO sunspots >175: 82 (near longterm avg)(same if throw out El Niño seasons)

Highest ACE for ASO sunspots >175: 149

 

If you look further, the high ACE years were not only low sunspots but also majority low geomag

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm still salty about Idalia not getting retired. Lesser storms in the past have gotten retired. I guess the WMO changed the criteria and made it harder for storms to be retired. If Idalia didn't get retired, I highly doubt Debbie or Ernesto will. I think only really big storms, like Beryl, will be retired going forward.

One of the reasons the Atlantic has been so quiet last few weeks is due to the ITCZ shifting north into the Sahara.

 

[snowman19]

23 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Now that we are into September, the following look like very good bets going into November, baring some dramatic, unexpected change over the next 2 months: strong -PDO, -PMM, weak -IOD, -ENSO (central based), +QBO (possibly strong?), +AMO/New Foundland warm pool, MJO favoring phases 4-6, high solar flux/high geomag, low arctic sea ice, any minor, unkown impacts on the stratosphere from the Ruang volcanic eruptions back in April

^Wanted to add to this that it looks like we are going to see a big GOA cold pool develop over the next month. The Bering Sea is cooling very rapidly right now. Looking at the past, this evolution normally results in downstream cooling of the GOA and the development of a cold pool there

[bluewave]

Even though the Euro will likely turn out to be too high with the forecast for 20-25 named storms and over 200 ACE, the U.S. temperature forecast for the summer was very good. So this tells there are elements of the climate system that these seasonal models can handle an others they can’t. It will be interesting to see if the Euro does as well with its winter temperature forecast and 500mb pattern next few updates on the 5th of each month.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

@Stormchaserchuck1 Have you seen the new QBO update for August yet? I just read on twitter that it’s up to almost +20. I take what I read there from people who aren’t mets with a grain of salt unless I can verify it as fact myself. If that’s actually true, it’s a real bad sign 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 Have you seen the new QBO update for August yet? I just read on twitter that it’s up to almost +20. I take what I read there with a grain of salt unless I can verify it as fact myself. If that’s actually true, it’s a real bad sign 

 My sources don’t show an August update yet. Are you talking raw number or anomaly? The anomalies were headed in that direction. But if that’s the raw, that would be a huge jump.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 My sources don’t show an August update yet. Are you talking raw number or anomaly? The anomalies were headed in that direction. But if that’s the raw, that would be a huge jump.

Good question. The person who posted it did not say, that’s why I’m trying to confirm if it was the anomalies or the raw number. If that’s actually the raw number (approaching +20), considering we are going to continue rising this fall, we are in big trouble. DT’s research has proven that very strong positive QBO’s lead to a raging zonal PAC jet by adding speed and westerly momentum to the upper atmosphere 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 Have you seen the new QBO update for August yet? I just read on twitter that it’s up to almost +20. I take what I read there from people who aren’t mets with a grain of salt unless I can verify it as fact myself. If that’s actually true, it’s a real bad sign 

Just when I thought I could start saving money on therapy, you have to drop this bomb on me? I need some time in a corner alone. 

[roardog]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

^Wanted to add to this that it looks like we are going to see a big GOA cold pool develop over the next month. The Bering Sea is cooling very rapidly right now. Looking at the past, this evolution normally results in downstream cooling of the GOA and the development of a cold pool there

I’ve always felt that the water temps out there are more a result of the pattern as opposed to a driver of the pattern. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If you look further, the high ACE years were not only low sunspots but also majority low geomag

Well, that goes without saying.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Just when I thought I could start saving money on therapy, you have to drop this bomb on me? I need some time in a corner alone. 

Not a shot against the quality non met posters here at all.  We have quality posters, like yourself. Some of the ones on twitter however leave a lot to be desired 

[mitchnick]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not a shot against the quality non met posters here at all.  We have quality posters, like yourself. Some of the ones on twitter however leave a lot to be desired 

Trust me, I  did not take it personally nor do I take myself seriously. Purely for some levity. I don't have a Twitter account nor do I choose to browse it and believe those some of my better decisions in life. Lol

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Trust me, I  did not take it personally nor do I take myself seriously. Purely for some levity. I don't have a Twitter account nor do I choose to browse it and believe those some of my better decisions in life. Lol

I don’t have a twitter account either. Well I had one, but deleted it.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Another reason for the low number of named storms this year is the SSTa configuration. It mirrors quiet non-el Nino years like 1970, 1973, and 2013: 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Another reason for the low number of named storms this year is the SSTa configuration. It mirrors quiet non-el Nino years like 1970, 1973, and 2013: 

Interesting and probably coincidentally, 1970 is the only high solar La Nina that was great for snowfall in the NE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1973 is a decent analog....2013, not so much.

[michsnowfreak]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1973 is a decent analog....2013, not so much.

1973-74 was a good winter here. 2013-14 was the most severe winter in recorded history and i doubt ill ever see that again.

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

1973-74 was a good winter here. 2013-14 was the most severe winter in recorded history and i doubt ill ever see that again.

The JMA winter 2013-2014 forecast issued in October 2013 was one of the best ever for a seasonal model forecast.

JMA October 2013 forecast 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php

 

 

Verification

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

One of the reasons the Atlantic has been so quiet last few weeks is due to the ITCZ shifting north into the Sahara.

 

I forget where exactly I read about the potential with a warming world to produce a greening Sahara. Maybe it was the exxon 1982 study that got circulated. 

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

^Wanted to add to this that it looks like we are going to see a big GOA cold pool develop over the next month. The Bering Sea is cooling very rapidly right now. Looking at the past, this evolution normally results in downstream cooling of the GOA and the development of a cold pool there

The record heat in Japan and adjacent marine heat wave have been two of the more extreme  heat records last few summers around the world. It’s why this -PDO has been more defined by the warm pool in those areas a rather than the cold pool so far near the NE PAC. To have two consecutive summers with this big a jump above any previous records is very impressive. 

 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The JMA winter 2013-2014 forecast issued in October 2013 was one of the best ever for a seasonal model forecast.

JMA October 2013 forecast 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php

 

 

Verification

 

 

Thanks! Even nailing the pattern I'd never have expected so much snow, wind, amd bitter cold as we had. The jma link you sent stops in April 2024. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 Have you seen the new QBO update for August yet? I just read on twitter that it’s up to almost +20. I take what I read there from people who aren’t mets with a grain of salt unless I can verify it as fact myself. If that’s actually true, it’s a real bad sign 

I'm all over it. +QBO/La Nina gives us about a 75% probability of having a cold 10mb for the Winter, which is actually a high percentage. I just think that strong PV downwells to amplify RNA conditions, as it has done that for the last 15 years. Of course there is some chance of a Stratosphere warming, but I am less keen on a -NAO of late, because it is not dominating the pattern like the Pacific is. 

[bluewave]

First time since 1968 with no Atlantic named storm formations between August 13th and September 3rd which was a developing moderate El Niño summer into winter.