2024-2025 La Nina

[PhiEaglesfan712]

At this point, I bet we don't even reach the 140 ACE of 2016.

[raindancewx]

At this point I'd say it's 50/50 we reach 125 ACE for the year in the Atlantic.

Over 150, I'd go 1/4 odds. Same for under 100.

My gut is 80-140 for the season. I don't think we're going to see much at all from African waves. Gulf & Caribbean should continue to produce into October or even November.

A lot of the very active Atlantic seasons get pretty cool in August in the middle of the country. We saw that briefly this year but it didn't last. No one really finished more than a degree (F) below average in August. You had pretty widespread chilly Augusts in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2016, 2017

Subsurface remained at -0.65 for August. 

[snowman19]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

Since 1851 here are the 19 years with 175+ sunspot avg during ASO (11% of the years), where 2024 is very likely headed, along with their respective ACE (* means El Niño (including incoming) season):

1859: 56

1860: 62

1870: 88

1917: 61

1937: 66

1947: 88

1948: 95

1949: 96

1956: 57

*1957: 79

*1958: 110

1959: 77

*1979: 93

1980: 149

1981: 100

1989: 135

1990: 97 

*1991: 36

2001: 110

AVG ACE for ASO sunspots >175: 82 (near longterm avg)(same if throw out El Niño seasons)

Highest ACE for ASO sunspots >175: 149

 

If you look further, the high ACE years were not only low sunspots but also majority low geomag

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm still salty about Idalia not getting retired. Lesser storms in the past have gotten retired. I guess the WMO changed the criteria and made it harder for storms to be retired. If Idalia didn't get retired, I highly doubt Debbie or Ernesto will. I think only really big storms, like Beryl, will be retired going forward.

One of the reasons the Atlantic has been so quiet last few weeks is due to the ITCZ shifting north into the Sahara.

 

[snowman19]

23 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Now that we are into September, the following look like very good bets going into November, baring some dramatic, unexpected change over the next 2 months: strong -PDO, -PMM, weak -IOD, -ENSO (central based), +QBO (possibly strong?), +AMO/New Foundland warm pool, MJO favoring phases 4-6, high solar flux/high geomag, low arctic sea ice, any minor, unkown impacts on the stratosphere from the Ruang volcanic eruptions back in April

^Wanted to add to this that it looks like we are going to see a big GOA cold pool develop over the next month. The Bering Sea is cooling very rapidly right now. Looking at the past, this evolution normally results in downstream cooling of the GOA and the development of a cold pool there

[bluewave]

Even though the Euro will likely turn out to be too high with the forecast for 20-25 named storms and over 200 ACE, the U.S. temperature forecast for the summer was very good. So this tells there are elements of the climate system that these seasonal models can handle an others they can’t. It will be interesting to see if the Euro does as well with its winter temperature forecast and 500mb pattern next few updates on the 5th of each month.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

@Stormchaserchuck1 Have you seen the new QBO update for August yet? I just read on twitter that it’s up to almost +20. I take what I read there from people who aren’t mets with a grain of salt unless I can verify it as fact myself. If that’s actually true, it’s a real bad sign 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 Have you seen the new QBO update for August yet? I just read on twitter that it’s up to almost +20. I take what I read there with a grain of salt unless I can verify it as fact myself. If that’s actually true, it’s a real bad sign 

 My sources don’t show an August update yet. Are you talking raw number or anomaly? The anomalies were headed in that direction. But if that’s the raw, that would be a huge jump.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 My sources don’t show an August update yet. Are you talking raw number or anomaly? The anomalies were headed in that direction. But if that’s the raw, that would be a huge jump.

Good question. The person who posted it did not say, that’s why I’m trying to confirm if it was the anomalies or the raw number. If that’s actually the raw number (approaching +20), considering we are going to continue rising this fall, we are in big trouble. DT’s research has proven that very strong positive QBO’s lead to a raging zonal PAC jet by adding speed and westerly momentum to the upper atmosphere 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 Have you seen the new QBO update for August yet? I just read on twitter that it’s up to almost +20. I take what I read there from people who aren’t mets with a grain of salt unless I can verify it as fact myself. If that’s actually true, it’s a real bad sign 

Just when I thought I could start saving money on therapy, you have to drop this bomb on me? I need some time in a corner alone. 

[roardog]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

^Wanted to add to this that it looks like we are going to see a big GOA cold pool develop over the next month. The Bering Sea is cooling very rapidly right now. Looking at the past, this evolution normally results in downstream cooling of the GOA and the development of a cold pool there

I’ve always felt that the water temps out there are more a result of the pattern as opposed to a driver of the pattern. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If you look further, the high ACE years were not only low sunspots but also majority low geomag

Well, that goes without saying.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Just when I thought I could start saving money on therapy, you have to drop this bomb on me? I need some time in a corner alone. 

Not a shot against the quality non met posters here at all.  We have quality posters, like yourself. Some of the ones on twitter however leave a lot to be desired 

[mitchnick]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not a shot against the quality non met posters here at all.  We have quality posters, like yourself. Some of the ones on twitter however leave a lot to be desired 

Trust me, I  did not take it personally nor do I take myself seriously. Purely for some levity. I don't have a Twitter account nor do I choose to browse it and believe those some of my better decisions in life. Lol

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Trust me, I  did not take it personally nor do I take myself seriously. Purely for some levity. I don't have a Twitter account nor do I choose to browse it and believe those some of my better decisions in life. Lol

I don’t have a twitter account either. Well I had one, but deleted it.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Another reason for the low number of named storms this year is the SSTa configuration. It mirrors quiet non-el Nino years like 1970, 1973, and 2013: 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Another reason for the low number of named storms this year is the SSTa configuration. It mirrors quiet non-el Nino years like 1970, 1973, and 2013: 

Interesting and probably coincidentally, 1970 is the only high solar La Nina that was great for snowfall in the NE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1973 is a decent analog....2013, not so much.

[michsnowfreak]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1973 is a decent analog....2013, not so much.

1973-74 was a good winter here. 2013-14 was the most severe winter in recorded history and i doubt ill ever see that again.

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

1973-74 was a good winter here. 2013-14 was the most severe winter in recorded history and i doubt ill ever see that again.

The JMA winter 2013-2014 forecast issued in October 2013 was one of the best ever for a seasonal model forecast.

JMA October 2013 forecast 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php

 

 

Verification

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

One of the reasons the Atlantic has been so quiet last few weeks is due to the ITCZ shifting north into the Sahara.

 

I forget where exactly I read about the potential with a warming world to produce a greening Sahara. Maybe it was the exxon 1982 study that got circulated. 

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

^Wanted to add to this that it looks like we are going to see a big GOA cold pool develop over the next month. The Bering Sea is cooling very rapidly right now. Looking at the past, this evolution normally results in downstream cooling of the GOA and the development of a cold pool there

The record heat in Japan and adjacent marine heat wave have been two of the more extreme  heat records last few summers around the world. It’s why this -PDO has been more defined by the warm pool in those areas a rather than the cold pool so far near the NE PAC. To have two consecutive summers with this big a jump above any previous records is very impressive. 

 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The JMA winter 2013-2014 forecast issued in October 2013 was one of the best ever for a seasonal model forecast.

JMA October 2013 forecast 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php

 

 

Verification

 

 

Thanks! Even nailing the pattern I'd never have expected so much snow, wind, amd bitter cold as we had. The jma link you sent stops in April 2024. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 Have you seen the new QBO update for August yet? I just read on twitter that it’s up to almost +20. I take what I read there from people who aren’t mets with a grain of salt unless I can verify it as fact myself. If that’s actually true, it’s a real bad sign 

I'm all over it. +QBO/La Nina gives us about a 75% probability of having a cold 10mb for the Winter, which is actually a high percentage. I just think that strong PV downwells to amplify RNA conditions, as it has done that for the last 15 years. Of course there is some chance of a Stratosphere warming, but I am less keen on a -NAO of late, because it is not dominating the pattern like the Pacific is. 

[bluewave]

First time since 1968 with no Atlantic named storm formations between August 13th and September 3rd which was a developing moderate El Niño summer into winter.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm all over it. +QBO/La Nina gives us about a 75% probability of having a cold 10mb for the Winter, which is actually a high percentage. I just think that strong PV downwells to amplify RNA conditions, as it has done that for the last 15 years. Of course there is some chance of a Stratosphere warming, but I am less keen on a -NAO of late, because it is not dominating the pattern like the Pacific is. 

Haven't you posted on several occasions something to the effect that +NAO has been coinciding with +PNA and -NAO with RNA??

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First time since 1968 with no Atlantic named storm formations between August 13th and September 3rd which was a developing moderate El Niño summer into winter.

 

Hey, the consensus clearly missed something this summer and fall, so hopefully it misses siomething with respect to the winter.

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hey, the consensus clearly missed something this summer and fall, so hopefully it misses siomething with respect to the winter.

Consensus missed last winter as well. I don't like seeing the Euro seasonal going against us because it's been best with its Niña forecast. New Euro seasonal run comes out on the Euro site Thursday I believe, so we'll see. Paid sites may already have it, idk. Hopefully, it looks more like the Cansips, and even the Cfs2 for that matter which has recently looked more like the Cansips with cold draped across Canada and the northern tier.

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hey, the consensus clearly missed something this summer and fall, so hopefully it misses siomething with respect to the winter.

The funny thing is the Euro did a great job with the U.S. summer temperature forecast. But the forecast of over 20 named storms and 200 ACE was too high in the tropical Atlantic. So it’s interesting that the model can hone in on one set of circumstances but completely miss another. 

As for next winter, we would need some type of mismatch which would mute or shift the predominant -PDO pattern all the seasonal models have. So not sure if what happened in the Atlantic will be relevant beyond some extra SST warmth and fewer wave breaking events in the North Atlantic from a large number of tropical systems. My guess is that the very high ACE years created these wave breaks which lead to more -NAO development and better snowfall outcomes. But we are missing that this year so far. 

We would need some type of big mismatch for next winter to shift off of this type of look. This summer featured one of the strongest ridges south of the Aleutians and near New England .So the seasonal models really focus in on the Aleutian Ridge and Southeast Ridge next winter. But as always we’ll need to see what actually happens with the atmosphere next winter to know if the models are onto the correct idea. At the very least it looks like this will be our 10th warmer than normal winter in a row for the Northeast in places like NYC. But the details including the magnitude of the warmth and how much snow are difficult to guess at before we get more clues in the coming months.
 

 

 

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The funny thing is the Euro did a great job with the U.S. summer temperature forecast. But the forecast of over 20 named storms and 200 ACE was too high in the tropical Atlantic. So it’s interesting that the model can hone in on one set of circumstances but completely miss another. 

As for next winter, we would need some type of mismatch which would mute or shift the predominant -PDO pattern all the seasonal models have. So not sure if what happened in the Atlantic will be relevant beyond some extra SST warmth and fewer wave breaking events in the North Atlantic from a large number of tropical systems. My guess is that the very high ACE years created these wave breaks which lead to more -NAO development and better snowfall outcomes. But we are missing that this year so far. 

We would need some type of big mismatch for next winter to shift off of this type of look. This summer featured one of the strongest ridges south of the Aleutians. And east of New England So the seasonal models really focus in on the Aleutian Ridge and Southeast Ridge next winter. But as always we’ll need to see what actually happens with the atmosphere next winter to know if the models are into the correct idea. At the very least it looks like this will be our 10th warmer than normal winter in a row for the Northeast in places like NYC. But the details including the magnitude of the warmth and how much snow are difficult to guess at before we get more clues in the coming months.
 

 

 

The picture for winter right now is ugly, I don’t think anyone here is going to dispute that. Still waiting to see the official raw QBO number for August. If that’s actually as high as I saw posted on twitter yesterday, it will make an already ugly picture even uglier. There’s no way to sugar coat the QBO going very strongly positive right now in the face of the other variables we already have