2024-2025 La Nina

[bluewave]

We are on track for one of strongest -PDO summers on record as the daily index declines again. 
 

2024 -1.55 -1.33 -1.52 -2.12 -3.00 -3.16 -2.97

[SnoSki14]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have asked the mods, but I get ignored....snowman should not be 5 PPD.

His schtick regarding winter forecasts is not that much different than JB though, just the opposite (always warm, snowless winter). 

And yeah more often than not he'll be right due to pattern persistence and background warming from CC. But there's no nuance, just copy and paste.  

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

His schtick regarding winter forecasts is not that much different than JB though, just the opposite (always warm, snowless winter). 

And yeah more often than not he'll be right due to pattern persistence and background warming from CC. But there's no nuance, just copy and paste.  

No one cares what you think. You contribute nothing. Useless member. Disappear 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We are on track for one of strongest -PDO summers on record as the daily index declines again. 
 

2024 -1.55 -1.33 -1.52 -2.12 -3.00 -3.16 -2.97

I think we've been in a record -PDO cyclical pattern since the beginning of 2020:

2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.53 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.59 -0.99
2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.68 -1.84 -2.01 -1.81 -1.96 -0.94 -1.96 -3.13 -2.75 -2.71
2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.10 -2.25 -1.33 -2.62 -2.39 -2.29 -1.82 -2.41 -2.21
2023 -1.25 -1.65 -2.45 -3.07 -2.42 -2.53 -2.52 -2.47 -2.98 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

His schtick regarding winter forecasts is not that much different than JB though, just the opposite (always warm, snowless winter). 

And yeah more often than not he'll be right due to pattern persistence and background warming from CC. But there's no nuance, just copy and paste.  

People have said the same thing about Raindance and I was quick to point out that he has yet to be wrong. 5PPD for  a correct bias??

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

His schtick regarding winter forecasts is not that much different than JB though, just the opposite (always warm, snowless winter). 

And yeah more often than not he'll be right due to pattern persistence and background warming from CC. But there's no nuance, just copy and paste.  

 Why are you calling it schtick? He’s been actively posting in these ENSO threads only since last winter if I’m not mistaken. Correct me if I’m wrong. So, if true this is only the 2nd winter he’s been actively posting in these general winter threads. Last winter he did well with warmth and that’s the important thing, whether he was influenced by bias or not. Even if he was he backed up his warm forecast very well with history/analog data/reasoning/tweets from well respected pro Mets like Roundy, etc., over and over and over.
 

 This winter remains to be seen but I agree with AN unlike last year. He’s incorporating some changed factors from last winter like ENSO/QBO. I thought last winter would be NN to only slightly AN NE and was wrong unlike snowman. This winter I’m closer to him with AN even though the NE could easily not be as AN. Last winter was 40.6 at NYC, or ~4.5 AN (warmest since 2015-6). So, odds are 2024-5 won’t be nearly that warm.

 The best test for him will be when the NE gets backs to a cold DJF and if he successfully predicts cold for that one. That could very well be 2025-6 for all anyone knows. 

 Did you make a fcast for last winter? What’s your forecast for this winter? 

[George001]

9 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

His schtick regarding winter forecasts is not that much different than JB though, just the opposite (always warm, snowless winter). 

And yeah more often than not he'll be right due to pattern persistence and background warming from CC. But there's no nuance, just copy and paste.  

On a science based board where the goal should be the pursuit of knowledge and truth, this matters A LOT.

[rclab]

9 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

His schtick regarding winter forecasts is not that much different than JB though, just the opposite (always warm, snowless winter). 

And yeah more often than not he'll be right due to pattern persistence and background warming from CC. But there's no nuance, just copy and paste.  

Hello SS14. I believe JB is an able Meteorologist. Unfortunately he allows his desire to overwhelm the logic of reality. S19 is quite the opposite; the reality of our situation, atmospherically will always supersede his desire. That desire occasionally peeks out. I’ve caught it, however it will never, in his case, super cede the ongoing atmospheric/pattern. Stay well, as always ….

[raindancewx]

My forecast calls for -3 to -5 for the Northeast this winter, with the first ever 0" snowfall season for the Boston area. Nothing but 37-42 degree rain, with storm after storm moving in during the 'just warm enough' afternoons but never at night. After each storm, a powerful cold front will drive through pushing temps well below average overnight. These cold fronts will also clear the moisture out of the air. So lows will be cold with highs near average. But timing will prevent measurable snow. You saw it here first.

Meanwhile due to slightly better timing, with storms arriving in the morning, Philadelphia and DC will be just cold enough for each system, and see 50-60 inches of snow. The South will be graced with ice and sleet, floods, tornado outbreaks, with the Plains and West alternating between brief record cold snaps and +10 readings for the rest of the winter.

 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

My forecast calls for -3 to -5 for the Northeast this winter, with the first ever 0" snowfall season for the Boston area. Nothing but 37-42 degree rain, with storm after storm moving in during the 'just warm enough' afternoons but never at night. After each storm, a powerful cold front will drive through pushing temps well below average overnight. These cold fronts will also clear the moisture out of the air. So lows will be cold with highs near average. But timing will prevent measurable snow. You saw it here first.

Meanwhile due to slightly better timing, with storms arriving in the morning, Philadelphia and DC will be just cold enough for each system, and see 50-60 inches of snow. The South will be graced with ice and sleet, floods, tornado outbreaks, with the Plains and West alternating between brief record cold snaps and +10 readings for the rest of the winter.

 

Thanks for the laugh! 

Do you have some sort of beef with Boston, though? I’m genuinely curious.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Only 4 amarillos have queefed in Albuquerque this August. Usually the good snow years in Boston have at least 6 queefs on the northeast side of the plateau here between August 15-19 alone. My data has between 3 and 5 queefs as a pretty solid southwest cold signal for January and February with above average precip for wherever I live.

[raindancewx]

The Canadian has a -WPO look for Oct-Feb looks like. La Nina is dead in February. The look isn't really a technical La Nina. It's cold from 100-150W, but barely below average for 120-180W. It's close enough, but may not ever get designated officially as a La Nina.

To me the Canadian is on the right track - it has the North Central US cold with cold air in Western Canada feeding the US cold. Doesn't look crazy if Canada isn't flooded with warm air from the +WPO.

If cold dumps into the US from Western Canada to the North-Central Plains I'd expect the warmest areas of the US to be areas of the SE/SW most separated by mountain ranges from the cold waves in the Plains. So Southeast US east of the Appalachians and Southwest US west of the Continental Divide. We'd be in this weird transition zone here where one or two of the Blue Northers would be tall enough to move directly north to south, and then the Arctic air in the Plains would probably ooze over the shorter mountain passes here a few times.

As we have literally no hurricane activity in the Atlantic, I've just about given up on going super hot here. Atlantic is rapidly correcting toward 'average' not hyperactivity at the moment. The lower activity hurricane seasons tend to see arctic air dumps into the West. I will say, the pattern v. 2020 is semi-opposite. Fall 2020 had basically all-time record -WPO cold dumps into the Rockies/Plains/Mexico in Sept/Oct that then flipped back to very +WPO conditions for a while. We're looking at +/neutral WPO conditions in September and then only 'normal' -WPO conditions in October.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, George001 said:

On a science based board where the goal should be the pursuit of knowledge and truth, this matters A LOT.

Normals change every 10 years though, so if your climate has consistently warmed, it'll show in the next set of normals. Winters won't always be warmer and less snowy than normal, because then normal wouldn't be normal. Yes, the past 10 years have seen mild winters dominate. But the prior 10 years saw quite a bit of cold. Weather also tends to go in cycles regardless of whst is "normal".

[mitchnick]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The Canadian has a -WPO look for Oct-Feb looks like. La Nina is dead in February. The look isn't really a technical La Nina. It's cold from 100-150W, but barely below average for 120-180W. It's close enough, but may not ever get designated officially as a La Nina.

To me the Canadian is on the right track - it has the North Central US cold with cold air in Western Canada feeding the US cold. Doesn't look crazy if Canada isn't flooded with warm air from the +WPO.

If cold dumps into the US from Western Canada to the North-Central Plains I'd expect the warmest areas of the US to be areas of the SE/SW most separated by mountain ranges from the cold waves in the Plains. So Southeast US east of the Appalachians and Southwest US west of the Continental Divide. We'd be in this weird transition zone here where one or two of the Blue Northers would be tall enough to move directly north to south, and then the Arctic air in the Plains would probably ooze over the shorter mountain passes here a few times.

As we have literally no hurricane activity in the Atlantic, I've just about given up on going super hot here. Atlantic is rapidly correcting toward 'average' not hyperactivity at the moment. The lower activity hurricane seasons tend to see arctic air dumps into the West. I will say, the pattern v. 2020 is semi-opposite. Fall 2020 had basically all-time record -WPO cold dumps into the Rockies/Plains/Mexico in Sept/Oct that then flipped back to very +WPO conditions for a while. We're looking at +/neutral WPO conditions in September and then only 'normal' -WPO conditions in October.

Comparing this run to August's, it's a little cooler here in south central PA in Dec & Jan and a little warmer in Feb. In typical Nina fashion, unfortunately, it's a dry'ish run for much of the east. Verbatim, January looks like our best shot for wintry weather, which is typical here in Niñas. Really looks like a congrats NNE and Midwest sorta year.

[snowman19]

32 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Comparing this run to August's, it's a little cooler here in south central PA in Dec & Jan and a little warmer in Feb. In typical Nina fashion, unfortunately, it's a dry'ish run for much of the east. Verbatim, January looks like our best shot for wintry weather, which is typical here in Niñas. Really looks like a congrats NNE and Midwest sorta year.

Just saw the new Nov-Mar 500mb maps and it looks unimpressive, completely void of high latitude NAO/AO blocking and it goes canonical Niña torch Feb/Mar. Aleutian ridge city, negative PNAish and it pumps the SE ridge starting in Jan

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The Canadian has a -WPO look for Oct-Feb looks like. La Nina is dead in February. The look isn't really a technical La Nina. It's cold from 100-150W, but barely below average for 120-180W. It's close enough, but may not ever get designated officially as a La Nina.

To me the Canadian is on the right track - it has the North Central US cold with cold air in Western Canada feeding the US cold. Doesn't look crazy if Canada isn't flooded with warm air from the +WPO.

If cold dumps into the US from Western Canada to the North-Central Plains I'd expect the warmest areas of the US to be areas of the SE/SW most separated by mountain ranges from the cold waves in the Plains. So Southeast US east of the Appalachians and Southwest US west of the Continental Divide. We'd be in this weird transition zone here where one or two of the Blue Northers would be tall enough to move directly north to south, and then the Arctic air in the Plains would probably ooze over the shorter mountain passes here a few times.

As we have literally no hurricane activity in the Atlantic, I've just about given up on going super hot here. Atlantic is rapidly correcting toward 'average' not hyperactivity at the moment. The lower activity hurricane seasons tend to see arctic air dumps into the West. I will say, the pattern v. 2020 is semi-opposite. Fall 2020 had basically all-time record -WPO cold dumps into the Rockies/Plains/Mexico in Sept/Oct that then flipped back to very +WPO conditions for a while. We're looking at +/neutral WPO conditions in September and then only 'normal' -WPO conditions in October.

All the new model runs look terrible for Atlantic TC development now. We are starting to run out of time for a hyperactive season with very high ACE and a big number of named storms

[SnoSki14]

Very unusual to see such low tropical activity given all the preceding factors...not Nina like at all

Good call by raindance doubting all the hyperactive forecasts

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Just saw the new Nov-Mar 500mb maps and it looks unimpressive, completely void of high latitude NAO/AO blocking and it goes canonical Niña torch Feb/Mar. Aleutian ridge city, negative PNAish and it pumps the SE ridge starting in Jan

For the inland Mid-Atlantic and most SNE areas, snow to sleet/zr seem like our best chances this year, with a flat out change to all rain in coastal/lowland areas. Short of a fluke, or should I say miracle, it's not a pattern conducive to 6"+ all snow events imby by any stretch.

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very unusual to see such low tropical activity given all the preceding factors...not Nina like at all

Good call by raindance doubting all the hyperactive forecasts

Oz Gfs went a little tropical happy, but 6z naso much.

[bluewave]

On 8/31/2024 at 8:42 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think we've been in a record -PDO cyclical pattern since the beginning of 2020:

2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.53 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.59 -0.99
2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.68 -1.84 -2.01 -1.81 -1.96 -0.94 -1.96 -3.13 -2.75 -2.71
2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.10 -2.25 -1.33 -2.62 -2.39 -2.29 -1.82 -2.41 -2.21
2023 -1.25 -1.65 -2.45 -3.07 -2.42 -2.53 -2.52 -2.47 -2.98 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66

This looks like it will be one of the strongest -PDO summers since 1950. The -PDO pattern was so strong that year that it produced a +13.0 January in Atlanta. While this is not meant to be a forecast for next winter, it just shows what is within the range of possibilities should we get a strong enough Aleutian ridge and deep enough trough out West. We already had a +13.2 with the 21-22 La Niña and -PDO at DFW in December 21. Extreme months like this usually pop up in forecasts very close to the time period. So it’s not usually something that we can forecast from so far out. Hopefully, we get some type of mismatch pattern next winter that takes an extreme winter month off of the table. But it’s something to just be aware of with such extreme -PDOs.

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-017CC821-F4F4-4CF6-868A-42E597844BF5.pdf

 

 

 

[snowman19]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This looks like it will be one of the strongest -PDO summers since 1950. The -PDO pattern was so strong that year that it produced a +13.0 January in Atlanta. While this is not meant to be a forecast for next winter, it just shows what is within the range of possibilities should we get a strong enough Aleutian ridge and deep enough trough out West. We already had a +13.2 with a 2020s La Niña at DFW in December 2021. Extreme months like this usually pop up in forecasts very close to the time period. So it’s not usually something that we can forecast from so far out. Hopefully, we get some type of mismatch pattern next winter that takes an extreme winter month off of the table. But it’s something to just be aware of with such extreme -PDOs.
 
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-017CC821-F4F4-4CF6-868A-42E597844BF5.pdf


 
 


 

Now that we are into September, the following look like very good bets going into November, baring some dramatic, unexpected change over the next 2 months: strong -PDO, -PMM, weak -IOD, -ENSO (central based), +QBO (possibly strong?), +AMO/New Foundland warm pool, MJO favoring phases 4-6, high solar flux/high geomag, low arctic sea ice, any minor, unkown impacts on the stratosphere from the Ruang volcanic eruptions back in April

@Gawx
 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

This would mark the first time in 27 years that not a single named storm, those with winds of at least 39 mph, has developed in the Atlantic between Aug. 21 and Sept. 2.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Oz Gfs went a little tropical happy, but 6z naso much.

I also wonder how much of a factor the warm tropical tropopause in the Atlantic (AGW related) is playing in this…

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I also wonder how much of a factor the warm tropical tropopause in the Atlantic (AGW related) is playing in this…

 I’m suspecting that one of the factors leading to the current quiet is the record warm E Atlantic from 30 to 45N. Any opinions about this?

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Comparing this run to August's, it's a little cooler here in south central PA in Dec & Jan and a little warmer in Feb. In typical Nina fashion, unfortunately, it's a dry'ish run for much of the east. Verbatim, January looks like our best shot for wintry weather, which is typical here in Niñas. Really looks like a congrats NNE and Midwest sorta year.

I'll take my chances on precip with a +NAO and inferno over the ATL....hedge warmer and wetter given CC.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take my chances on precip with a +NAO and inferno over the ATL....hedge warmer and wetter given CC.

I'd take that bet too if I were you.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I also wonder how much of a factor the warm tropical tropopause in the Atlantic (AGW related) is playing in this…

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Now that we are into September, the following look like very good bets going into November, baring some dramatic, unexpected change over the next 2 months: strong -PDO, -PMM, weak -IOD, -ENSO (central based), +QBO (possibly strong?), +AMO/New Foundland warm pool, MJO favoring phases 4-6, high solar flux/high geomag, low arctic sea ice, any minor, unkown impacts on the stratosphere from the Ruang volcanic eruptions back in April

@Gawx
 

Do you think that the current very active sun could be one of the main factors (especially when considering lag) keeping the recent Atlantic tropics quiet? Aug of 2024 had a 216, the highest mean sunspots in Aug since 1991. That means that this Aug had the highest mean for Aug of the current active Atlantic tropics era so far.

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

Per met. Joe D’Aleo:
“We have mentioned the strong solar spike which research has shown can suppress hurricane activity.”

“One negative may be the big spike in solar in cycle 25. Most cycles have had a dual max and recent ones had the second one higher. This warms the upper atmosphere and hampers development.”

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Do you think that the current very active sun could be one of the main factors (especially when considering lag) keeping the recent Atlantic tropics quiet? Aug of 2024 had a 216, the highest mean sunspots in Aug since 1991. That means that this Aug had the highest mean for Aug of the current active Atlantic tropics era so far.

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

Per met. Joe D’Aleo:
“We have mentioned the strong solar spike which research has shown can suppress hurricane activity.”

“One negative may be the big spike in solar in cycle 25. Most cycles have had a dual max and recent ones had the second one higher. This warms the upper atmosphere and hampers development.”

If you look at most of the hyper ACE seasons, they were near solar min...just like neg NAO .

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This would mark the first time in 27 years that not a single named storm, those with winds of at least 39 mph, has developed in the Atlantic between Aug. 21 and Sept. 2.

It’s the first time in known history that a El Niño summer ahead of a winter ONI of +2.0 or greater had 7 named storms and 2 category 4 hurricanes develop between August 20th and 31st to be followed by a developing La Niña the next summer with no new storms during this period. 
 

2023

New developments between 8-20 and 8-31

TS Gert

TS Emily

Cat 4 Franklin 

TS Harold 

Cat 4 Idalia 

TS Jose 

TS Katina 

 

2024 

No new developments