2024-2025 La Nina

[bluewave]

This is a great explainer on why we only had 5 named storms so far and models like the Euro were forecasting over 20 for the season. But as we saw with Beryl, individual systems that are able to form with the record SSTs can become very intense. Many have been commenting in this unusual AEW behavior so far this season especially for a La Niña with record Atlantic SSTs.
 

https://news.ucar.edu/132966/dampening-seeds-hurricanes

 

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is a great explainer on why we only had 5 named storms so far this season and Models like the Euro were forecasting over 20 for the season. But as we saw with Beryl, individual systems that are able to form with the record SSTs can become very intense. Many have been commenting in this unusual AEW behavior so far this season. 
 

https://news.ucar.edu/132966/dampening-seeds-hurricanes

 

I think we may be in the very early stages of the Atlantic starting to flip to a -AMO. *Maybe*. If that’s indeed what’s happening, it’s going to be a slow evolution over many months. We won’t know for sure until next summer 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think we may be in the very early stages of the Atlantic starting to flip to a -AMO. *Maybe*. If that’s indeed what’s happening, it’s going to be a slow evolution over many months. We won’t know for sure until next summer 

Right...that is what I was saying to you the other day, after raindance mentioned it. Probably not a huge factor for this winter, but just something to be aware of.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right...that is what I was saying to you the other day, after raindance mentioned it. Probably not a huge factor for this winter, but just something to be aware of.

Right. Assuming that’s really what is happening, it would have an effect on next winter. It’s still strongly positive at the moment and I don’t see it having any effect at all on this winter, it’s starting to happen way too late for that and it’s going to be a slow process, again, assuming this is the case 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

If we are really flipping to a -AMO, then I guess a flip from the secular -PDO to a secular +PDO period is going to soon follow. When we flipped to +AMO in ~1995, the secular +PDO period (which began in 1976) soon flipped to a secular -PDO following the next el nino -> la nina transition in 1998. That winter we get the -AMO, +PDO, and el nino combination (especially if it's moderate) is going to be a fun and wild one.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I think we may be in the very early stages of the Atlantic starting to flip to a -AMO. *Maybe*. If that’s indeed what’s happening, it’s going to be a slow evolution over many months. We won’t know for sure until next summer 

The Atlantic is still near the warmest on record. The last time there were forecasts for an AMO shift back in 2013 to 2017 the weak cooling only lasted for a few years. Then the SSTs reached record levels over recent years. So this could be an indication that aerosol reductions are playing a role and that the reduction is inhibiting a return to a cooler phase. But we may need a few decades more of observations to confirm. 

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-022-04207-0

 

Is Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation a genuine representation of natural variability in the climate system? Or perhaps is it strongly forced by external drivers? In this paper, a data-driven attribution investigation has been performed for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) behaviour in the past via a machine learning technique, NN modelling. We clearly see a forced nature of AMO in the last 150 years, with a strong contribution of the forcing coming from anthropogenic sulphates, which induces its typical oscillating behaviour. The following original application of our model to future predictions of the AMO behaviour shows that it shall probably lose its oscillating characteristic features. The only way to recover them is to consider an unrealistic increase in anthropogenic sulphates in the future under a strong mitigation scenario, and possibly a low-power solar regime. Due to the established influence of AMO on climate and meteorological phenomena in several regions of the world, our results can be important to better understand the past and envisage several future scenarios.

Discussion of potential AMO shift back in 2013.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Publications/sidebars/fogarty_and_klotzbach_2014.pdf

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we are really flipping to a -AMO, then I guess a flip from the secular -PDO to a secular +PDO period is going to soon follow. When we flipped to +AMO in ~1995, the secular +PDO period (which began in 1976) soon flipped to a secular -PDO following the next el nino -> la nina transition in 1998. That winter we get the -AMO, +PDO, and el nino combination (especially if it's moderate) is going to be a fun and wild one.

PDO should start of flip later this decade, along with the AMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Atlantic is still near the warmest on record. The last time there were forecasts for an AMO shift back in 2013 to 2017 the weak cooling only lasted for a few years. Then the SSTs reached record levels over recent years. So this could be an indication that aerosol reductions are playing a role and that the reduction is inhibiting a return to a cooler phase. But we may need a few decades more of observations to confirm. 

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-022-04207-0

 

Is Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation a genuine representation of natural variability in the climate system? Or perhaps is it strongly forced by external drivers? In this paper, a data-driven attribution investigation has been performed for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) behaviour in the past via a machine learning technique, NN modelling. We clearly see a forced nature of AMO in the last 150 years, with a strong contribution of the forcing coming from anthropogenic sulphates, which induces its typical oscillating behaviour. The following original application of our model to future predictions of the AMO behaviour shows that it shall probably lose its oscillating characteristic features. The only way to recover them is to consider an unrealistic increase in anthropogenic sulphates in the future under a strong mitigation scenario, and possibly a low-power solar regime. Due to the established influence of AMO on climate and meteorological phenomena in several regions of the world, our results can be important to better understand the past and envisage several future scenarios.

 

I don't think its going to halt the cycle...rather what is more likely is the negative mode won't be as intense or perhaps long lasting.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I swear, you could express optimism that you are going to get laid on a Friday night after a long week, and Bluewave would instantly sling a peer reviewed CC article from his holster to suggest otherwise.

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think its going to halt the cycle...rather what is more likely is the negative mode won't be as intense or perhaps long lasting.

The AMO itself may not be as relevant to the overall North Atlantic SSTs if we continue to see these subtropical record warm blobs east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes. It could result a the shift in tropical cyclone tracks with some areas seeing more activity and other less. But it will be interesting to see how things go in coming decades.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-11046-x

Over the recent few years, striking changes in Atlantic SSTs have occurred in the subpolar gyre, where the cold anomaly that developed from 2013–2015 was termed the ‘cold blob’ in the press¹³. This cold anomaly resulted from extremely harsh winters of 2013–2015, characterised by strong surface heat loss¹⁴ which resulted in persistent cooling of the upper ocean¹⁵ and drove deep ocean convection^16, 17. Here, we assess the impact of this cooling on the AMO index, and evaluate the observed changes over the past 3 years relative to the cold AMO period of the 1990s. The AMO index, however, masks any spatial distributions in SST changes, and while the AMO index is negative, the subpolar cold anomaly is accompanied by a warm anomaly in the subtropics. We investigate whether the cold subpolar anomaly is likely to persist and consider how the present cold state of the AMO may evolve.

 

 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I swear, you could express optimism that you are going to get laid on a Friday night after a long week, and Bluewave would instantly sling a peer reviewed CC article from his holster to suggest otherwise.

Just because something is peer reviewed doesn't make it gospel.  You can find 1000s of peer reviewed literature that is wrong.  I see it all the time in the pharma world.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Just because something is peer reviewed doesn't make it gospel.  You can find 1000s of peer reviewed literature that is wrong.  I see it all the time in the pharma world.

No study is guaranteed to be 100% true.....that is why they are publications predicated upon a hypothesis from the data. However, having it peer reviewed defintely validates it in my mind.

[FPizz]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No study is guaranteed to be 100% true.....that is why they are publications predicated upon a hypothesis from the data. However, having it peer reviewed defintely validates it in my mind.

This is from the American Met Society below.  So to me it is just another hypothesis that might be correct because the information is sound, but it might also be 100% false.  With doing pharma submissions for the whole world, we see peer reviewed stuff all the time that eventually turns out to be 100% wrong.  Way to many times peer reviewed stuff is quoted and posted as gospel. 

 

Just because a paper was published after undergoing “peer review” does not make it absolutely correct or perfect, nor is it the final message on that idea.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Just because something is peer reviewed doesn't make it gospel.  You can find 1000s of peer reviewed literature that is wrong.  I see it all the time in the pharma world.

You are missing the point. We are discussing what has already happened and the strengths and weakness of the approaches used over the last decade since the 15-16 super El Niño. You should cut the scientific climate and weather forecasting community some slack since these changes to our climate are happening faster than some of our older technology based models can keep up with . People are just doing the best they can with the technology we have available at the time. The weather and climate is an open and transparent system where everyone can see the results. Big pharma is different since it’s always not immediately obvious whether all the results of a study have been disclosed. So you are making an apples and oranges comparison.

[GaWx]

 Good news per this post in the NYC forum:

 I say good news because it is what the model consensus has been strongly suggesting, is consistent with La Niña/strong -PDO, and his going warmer than normal (I wouldn’t call it “warm” like Brian does) is a huge breath of fresh air for him. He hasn’t had even one (per googling as they’re all out there in Google-land) AN NE DJF since at least 2014-5. They’ve all been NN or colder. The best test of his forecasting abilities would be to stay with AN in the NE and getting it right. The key though is whether he’ll revise it colder later like he did in 2020-1, which was initially ~+3 in the NE but then cooled to NN.

 I expect @snowman19to faint lol.

[snowman19]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Good news per this post in the NYC forum:

 I say good news because it is what the model consensus has been strongly suggesting, is consistent with La Niña/strong -PDO, and his going warmer than normal (I wouldn’t call it “warm” like Brian does) is a huge breath of fresh air for him. He hasn’t had even one (per googling as they’re all out there in Google-land) AN NE DJF since at least 2014-5. They’ve all been NN or colder. The best test of his forecasting abilities would be to stay with AN in the NE and getting it right. The key though is whether he’ll revise it colder later like he did in 2020-1, which was initially ~+3 in the NE but then cooled to NN.

 I expect @snowman19to faint lol.

I saw a rumor that he’s going warmer than average with below normal snow on Twitter Wednesday night. Guess it was true. Let’s see if he actually sticks to it come November or reverses and goes cold and snowy. My guess is that he’s cold and snowy by Thanksgiving…. 
 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Good news per this post in the NYC forum:

I expect @snowman19to faint lol.

It's like instantly adding 1 or 2 posts per day to his limit, assuming he's still limited.

For the record, I  don't see why he couldn't be allowed to post in here without limit. I  don't know what's gone on in the other forums, but everyone in here seems to get along reasonably well considering the different viewpoints. 

But then again, I  got suspended last winter for 6 days because of a political post, so maybe I'm not the one to ask! LOL

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I don't think the AMO is going cold because we have 5 NS half way through the season. Atlantic SSTs are still very warm. In the Caribbean and GOM, they have borderlined record warm since the Spring. 

I plotted the AMO going back to when it's warm phase began in 1995, then smoothed it out. It seems that a rising phase is still underway. 

Remember, we averaged 9-10 NS/yr for a very long time, 100 years.. through warm and cold phases AMO's. so that we're sitting at 5 NS still here in August has us actually a little bit ahead of the long term average. It just shows how favorable the pattern has been, and I think a large part of that is the 65% La Nina events vs El Nino since the AMO went + in 1995. Look at what we have going on now in the ENSO subsurface.. Neutral

[Stormchaserchuck1]

How had cyclones in other parts of the world been doing vs the Atlantic? I thought I read somewhere it was 125% vs 175%. We had been running above even the SST curve.. 

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

How had cyclones in other parts of the world been doing vs the Atlantic? I thought I read somewhere it was 125% vs 175%. We had been running above even the SST curve.. 

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Also, the only two times since 2010 the N. Atlantic SST Winter NAO predictor was this positive was 2018 and 2013. We had 15 NS and 14NS, and 2 MH, 0 MH in those years. I said before, if there is a correlation between ACE and -NAO in the Winter, maybe there is a chicken/egg equation there.. I think it's probably because global factors hold a state that is correlation, not because of the actual storms, but because the same things leading to X have the same result.. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

Wow! Big time lag in global ACE (173 vs 250). That's like 70% while the Atlantic had been running 180%. Thanks

If I had known this, I would have gone more conservative on the season lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, FPizz said:

This is from the American Met Society below.  So to me it is just another hypothesis that might be correct because the information is sound, but it might also be 100% false.  With doing pharma submissions for the whole world, we see peer reviewed stuff all the time that eventually turns out to be 100% wrong.  Way to many times peer reviewed stuff is quoted and posted as gospel. 

 

Just because a paper was published after undergoing “peer review” does not make it absolutely correct or perfect, nor is it the final message on that idea.

That isn't the point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

It's like instantly adding 1 or 2 posts per day to his limit, assuming he's still limited.

For the record, I  don't see why he couldn't be allowed to post in here without limit. I  don't know what's gone on in the other forums, but everyone in here seems to get along reasonably well considering the different viewpoints. 

But then again, I  got suspended last winter for 6 days because of a political post, so maybe I'm not the one to ask! LOL

I have asked the mods, but I get ignored....snowman should not be 5 PPD.

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Also, the only two times since 2010 the N. Atlantic SST Winter NAO predictor was this positive was 2018 and 2013. We had 15 NS and 14NS, and 2 MH, 0 MH in those years. I said before, if there is a correlation between ACE and -NAO in the Winter, maybe there is a chicken/egg equation there.. I think it's probably because global factors hold a state that is correlation, not because of the actual storms, but because the same things leading to X have the same result.. 

I don't think it's the NAO it correlates to...more the subtropical ridge. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I also don't know why I have to wear a name tag.. the board was dead, no posts.. so I made like 10 posts in 2 minutes. Got tagged 3 years ago and worn it since lol. It seems petty.. no one even posts in OT. 

[snowman19]

Also, the only two times since 2010 the N. Atlantic SST Winter NAO predictor was this positive was 2018 and 2013. We had 15 NS and 14NS, and 2 MH, 0 MH in those years. I said before, if there is a correlation between ACE and -NAO in the Winter, maybe there is a chicken/egg equation there.. I think it's probably because global factors hold a state that is correlation, not because of the actual storms, but because the same things leading to X have the same result.. 

The more I look at it the more I’m thinking we see a rather strong +NAO/+AO winter. Also, it looks like we are going to see a substantial strengthening of the already very strong -PDO, along with a PMM drop. We have big cooling going on in the Bering Sea. This is a normal precursor to downstream cooling in the GOA/GOA cold pool and subsequent “cold horseshoe” from there, down the west coast of North America to Baja and into the tropics. Given the developing cold ENSO, that will only serve to strengthen this system and drop the PDO and PMM further. Classic look

PDO phase maps: https://prfrainfall.com/pacific-decadal-oscillation-

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The more I look at it the more I’m thinking we see a rather strong +NAO/+AO winter. Also, it looks like we are going to see a substantial strengthening of the already very strong -PDO, along with a PMM drop. We have big cooling going on in the Bering Sea. This is a normal precursor to downstream cooling in the GOA/GOA cold pool and subsequent “cold horseshoe” from there, down the west coast of North America to Baja and into the tropics. Given the developing cold ENSO, that will only serve to strengthen this system and drop the PDO and PMM further. Classic look

 

 

PDO phase maps: https://prfrainfall.com/pacific-decadal-oscillation-

 

 

Yeah, we are probably going to need help from the Pacific this Winter, and that's not looking very likely with the La Nina about to approach Weak range. At least the subsurface is moderating.. What we do have going for us is that 5/6 Winters have been +WPO and history says that's more likely to flip.. nothing scientific about that, it just has a historical tendency to fluctuate back and forth. The monthly QBO number should be out in a couple of days, and that will tell us how positive this phase is going to get. A lot of factors are pointing to a warm Winter.. I would say 4/4 with the wild card being the N. Pacific High possibly extending north. I know the Futures market is betting on a warm Winter, if someone thinks it's going to be cold, this would be a nice time to buy.. The PDO really correlates to our weather in the Fall.. this cool down in the East lately is actually because of shorter wavelengths as the Pacific warm pool is holding a High pressure and we have a GOA low.. if this Pacific pattern happened in the Winter, it would be warm. La Nina/+QBO in the cold season does support a stronger 10mb vortex, which imo translates to +AO and RNA. That's why I was hoping ENSO would stay warm, but it's made a little bit of a move in the last few days. 

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, we are probably going to need help from the Pacific this Winter, and that's not looking very likely with the La Nina about to approach Weak range. At least the subsurface is moderating.. What we do have going for us is that 5/6 Winters have been +WPO and history says that's more likely to flip.. nothing scientific about that, it just has a historical tendency to fluctuate back and forth. The monthly QBO number should be out in a couple of days, and that will tell us how positive this phase is going to get. A lot of factors are pointing to a warm Winter.. I would say 4/4 with the wild card being the N. Pacific High possibly extending north. I know the Futures market is betting on a warm Winter, if someone thinks it's going to be cold, this would be a nice time to buy.. The PDO really correlates to our weather in the Fall.. this cool down in the East lately is actually because of shorter wavelengths as the Pacific warm pool is holding a High pressure and we have a GOA low.. if this Pacific pattern happened in the Winter, it would be warm. La Nina/+QBO in the cold season does support a stronger 10mb vortex, which imo translates to +AO and RNA. That's why I was hoping ENSO would stay warm, but it's made a little bit of a move here in the last few days. 

If the QBO becomes strongly positive the PAC jet is going to roar. DT was absolutely right about that correlation. Strong +QBO strengthens and adds westerly momentum in the upper atmosphere to the jet and causes it to rage. 16-17 was a real good recent example. And for once JB might be right about the MJO, assuming he sticks to it and that’s a big assumption but, there is good evidence to suspect a continuation of MJO 4-6. Warmest SSTs still in those phases and cold-ENSO/-IOD. Let’s see if he actually sticks to it, he tends to be stubborn, i.e. insisting that arctic sea ice is going to increase for the last like 5 years

@GaWx Looks like the final average sunspot number for August is going to be solidly over 200. Geomag activity/solar flux also averaged well above normal for the month 

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wow! Big time lag in global ACE (173 vs 250). That's like 70% while the Atlantic had been running 180%. Thanks

If I had known this, I would have gone more conservative on the season lol

There’s musings on twitter about the Atlantic tropical season possibly being shunted by the solar max and possible effects from the low latitude/tropical volcanic eruptions back in April. Also some chatter about the AMO/Atlantic “Niña” possibly being a culprit as well