2024-2025 La Nina

[raindancewx]

The PDO continues to reverse from pretty negative despite the El Nino falling apart. That's worth watching. The +PDO La Ninas are an interesting bunch. 

+PDO tends to be cold East, La Nina tends to be cold North. It's the opposite of last winter where -PDO tends to be cold West, and El Nino tends to be cold South. Years like 1995-96 and 2017-18 are +PDO La Ninas. 

I see some indications that the WPO may flip pretty negative in the Fall. That's often accompanied by early Fall snows nationally, but we'll see how that goes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The PDO continues to reverse from pretty negative despite the El Nino falling apart. That's worth watching. The +PDO La Ninas are an interesting bunch. 

+PDO tends to be cold East, La Nina tends to be cold North. It's the opposite of last winter where -PDO tends to be cold West, and El Nino tends to be cold South. Years like 1995-96 and 2017-18 are +PDO La Ninas. 

I see some indications that the WPO may flip pretty negative in the Fall. That's often accompanied by early Fall snows nationally, but we'll see how that goes.

Need to have a look at the +PDO Modoki La Nina seasons....assuming a fairly robust Modoki La Nina, that seems to supercede everything else and produce a pretty crap winter for the east.....if it remains weaker, then different ballgame. Again, need to look, but I'm not sure we have had a strong Modoki La Nina with a +PDO.....

[GaWx]

15 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The PDO continues to reverse from pretty negative despite the El Nino falling apart. That's worth watching. The +PDO La Ninas are an interesting bunch. 

+PDO tends to be cold East, La Nina tends to be cold North. It's the opposite of last winter where -PDO tends to be cold West, and El Nino tends to be cold South. Years like 1995-96 and 2017-18 are +PDO La Ninas. 

I see some indications that the WPO may flip pretty negative in the Fall. That's often accompanied by early Fall snows nationally, but we'll see how that goes.

 I’ll believe a legit +PDO is coming next winter when I see it.

 Posted below is the latest WCS PDO chart showing -0.37 as of March 20. But keep in mind that a -0.37 WCS is comparable to a much more negative NOAA PDO. The Feb 2024 NOAA PDO was still down at -1.33 despite this WCS chart showing every Feb daily being above -0.75 and Feb averaging -0.45 to -0.50:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

 So, the current NOAA PDO is likely ~~-1.20, still a solid -PDO. Also, the chart below shows that the WCS PDO has been oscillating around this same territory since late Jan (despite how warm most of the E US has been since then). Thus, I still see no indication of a clear move toward a +PDO.

 For there to be just a weak NOAA based +PDO next winter (say +0.25 to +0.50), the WCS dailies would likely need to rise all of the way to near the +1.00 to +1.25 range. With what appears to be a moderate to strong La Niña coming (probably even stronger on RONI basis as it has averaged a whopping 0.4 cooler than ONI for the last year), that’s highly improbable as of now.

 The last La Niña winter with a +0.25+ NOAA PDO was way back in 2005-6 (barely with +0.27) and that one was just a low end moderate Niña at most. The subsequent nine Ninas were either -PDO (7 of the 9) or neutral PDO (2016-7 and 2017-8). Prior to 2005-6, the last +PDO Niña was 1995-6 (moderate Niña). Keep in mind that there’s a good chance for a high end moderate to strong Niña (RONI based) next fall/winter.

 There have been 11 seasons with a sub -1.20 low on a RONI basis since 1949-50, which is very likely where we’re headed next fall/winter. None of those winters had a NOAA based +PDO:

1949-50: -1.6

1955-6: -2.2

1973-4: -1.1

1988-9: -0.9

1998-9: -1.0

1999-0: -1.8

2007-8: -1.3

2010-1: -1.8

2017-8: +0.1 (the only neutral PDO and that was with RONI dip to only -1.25)

2020-1: -0.9

2021-2: -2.3

AVG winter PDO for sub -1.2 RONI: -1.3

 

 Based on the above analysis as well as SSTa progs for next winter that I’ve seen, I’m betting heavily that there will not be a NOAA based +PDO (+0.25+) next winter.

[LibertyBell]

On 3/18/2024 at 4:01 PM, michsnowfreak said:

I would take my chance with ANY Nina here, but particularly 1st year Ninas. Whats funny is that 1995-96 was a really crappy winter here in that it was very cold and dry. We missed snow to the N, S, E, & W. A 6" snowstorm on the 1st day of spring 1996 "rescued" the season, DTW finishing at 27.6". Its rare that NYC beats DTW in seasonal snow, and that year they annihalted us with 75.6". It was a great year for lake ice and what not, but one of the shittier Nina snow seasons. But 2010-11? Now you are talking (69.1" at DTW, 61.9" NYC). 

As long as you give us a storm track, mild and even warm winters can do fine with snowfall (but of course the warmer it is, the worse snowcover is), so I guess in hindsight, 1995-96 was the MUCH rarer opposite problem- plenty of cold, missing all the storms (except clippers), no help from the frozen lakes.

2010-11 had great potential to beat 1995-96 in snowfall here but it basically stopped snowing after January lol.  But the period from December 26th to January 26th had 2 20" snowstorms and a 10" snowstorm in between them.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/21/2024 at 9:17 PM, raindancewx said:

The PDO continues to reverse from pretty negative despite the El Nino falling apart. That's worth watching. The +PDO La Ninas are an interesting bunch. 

+PDO tends to be cold East, La Nina tends to be cold North. It's the opposite of last winter where -PDO tends to be cold West, and El Nino tends to be cold South. Years like 1995-96 and 2017-18 are +PDO La Ninas. 

I see some indications that the WPO may flip pretty negative in the Fall. That's often accompanied by early Fall snows nationally, but we'll see how that goes.

hmm what kind of la nina was 2010-11?

 

[GaWx]

On 3/23/2024 at 4:23 PM, LibertyBell said:

hmm what kind of la nina was 2010-11?

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

 -What distinguishes 2010-1 was the combo of a record avg -NAO/-AO for DJ for La Niña.

-Feb +NAO/+AO ended that

-Since 1979-80, there have been only 6 -NAO winters (sub -0.25 avg) with all of them occurring during low sunspot #s (sub 35): 1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, 2020-1. To compare, the last 2 winters’ sunspots averaged ~120. AGW is quite possibly a factor in limiting -NAO winters while also increasing their frequency during summer.

 

[GaWx]

On 3/22/2024 at 11:21 AM, GaWx said:

 I’ll believe a legit +PDO is coming next winter when I see it.

 Posted below is the latest WCS PDO chart showing -0.37 as of March 20. But keep in mind that a -0.37 WCS is comparable to a much more negative NOAA PDO. The Feb 2024 NOAA PDO was still down at -1.33 despite this WCS chart showing every Feb daily being above -0.75 and Feb averaging -0.45 to -0.50:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

 So, the current NOAA PDO is likely ~~-1.20, still a solid -PDO. Also, the chart below shows that the WCS PDO has been oscillating around this same territory since late Jan (despite how warm most of the E US has been since then). Thus, I still see no indication of a clear move toward a +PDO.

 For there to be just a weak NOAA based +PDO next winter (say +0.25 to +0.50), the WCS dailies would likely need to rise all of the way to near the +1.00 to +1.25 range. With what appears to be a moderate to strong La Niña coming (probably even stronger on RONI basis as it has averaged a whopping 0.4 cooler than ONI for the last year), that’s highly improbable as of now.

 The last La Niña winter with a +0.25+ NOAA PDO was way back in 2005-6 (barely with +0.27) and that one was just a low end moderate Niña at most. The subsequent nine Ninas were either -PDO (7 of the 9) or neutral PDO (2016-7 and 2017-8). Prior to 2005-6, the last +PDO Niña was 1995-6 (moderate Niña). Keep in mind that there’s a good chance for a high end moderate to strong Niña (RONI based) next fall/winter.

 There have been 11 seasons with a sub -1.20 low on a RONI basis since 1949-50, which is very likely where we’re headed next fall/winter. None of those winters had a NOAA based +PDO:

1949-50: -1.6

1955-6: -2.2

1973-4: -1.1

1988-9: -0.9

1998-9: -1.0

1999-0: -1.8

2007-8: -1.3

2010-1: -1.8

2017-8: +0.1 (the only neutral PDO and that was with RONI dip to only -1.25)

2020-1: -0.9

2021-2: -2.3

AVG winter PDO for sub -1.2 RONI: -1.3

 

 Based on the above analysis as well as SSTa progs for next winter that I’ve seen, I’m betting heavily that there will not be a NOAA based +PDO (+0.25+) next winter.

 Supporting the above for a -PDO next winter (CFS is similar) (Note that if this verified it wouldn’t at all be E based Niña/closer to Modoki than E based):

 

2m vs 1981-2010 climo (would be little cooler vs 1991-2020 but keep in mind the cold bias of most models):

[GaWx]

 CANSIPS has Aleutian high/-PNA/+EPO/+NAO/+AO/-PDO in its latest fcast for next winter: yippee I can’t wait /hope it is wrong. Regardless, winter is still my favorite season since even a mild one would be 25+ colder with way less humidity than the typical miserable summer here (along with no bugs ). Also, even a mild one would be far more interesting than summer with much more day to day volatility.

[GaWx]

 Per the link below that pertains to long term impact from the 2022 Tonga volcano, we may very well go right back to El Nino in 2025-6 and quite possibly a multi-year version. Note how the DJF temperature anomaly pattern over the US in figure 7a (which covers the progged peak period of effects 2025-2029 or the interval of 3-7 yrs after eruption) comes rather close to a typical El Niño, including the cool SE and mild NW. Also, note especially figure 11d, which shows an El Ninolike Pacific SSTa pattern:

 

 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/372889143_Long-term_surface_impact_of_Hunga_Tonga-Hunga_Ha'apai-like_stratospheric_water_vapor_injection

 

"The MiMA simulations confirm the robustness of

the SWV-induced wave structure in the Pacific (Fig. 11ef),

and they produce tropical surface temperature anomalies

consistent with an El Ni˜

no-like pattern (Fig. 11a-d). This

heating is produced by the zonally asymmetric distribution

of SWV in the tropics, and consistent with the increased

surface downward longwave flux over the tropical Pacific

in WACCM (Fig. 9a). Thus, it is possible that the SWV

forcing from the eruption would favor a positive phase of

ENSO on a multi-year timescale, but further work is re-

quired to confirm this, in particular with a model including

fully interactive ocean and cloud feedbacks."

 

 So, @George001may very well be doing several years in a row of “how strong will El Niño get” starting with 2025-6 if this publication were to have a good clue.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Per the link below that pertains to long term impact from the 2022 Tonga volcano, we may very well go right back to El Nino in 2025-6 and quite possibly a multi-year version. Note how the DJF temperature anomaly pattern over the US in figure 7a (which covers the progged peak period of effects 2025-2029 or the interval of 3-7 yrs after eruption) comes rather close to a typical El Niño, including the cool SE and mild NW. Also, note especially figure 11d, which shows an El Ninolike Pacific SSTa pattern:

 

 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/372889143_Long-term_surface_impact_of_Hunga_Tonga-Hunga_Ha'apai-like_stratospheric_water_vapor_injection

 

"The MiMA simulations confirm the robustness of

the SWV-induced wave structure in the Pacific (Fig. 11ef),

and they produce tropical surface temperature anomalies

consistent with an El Ni˜

no-like pattern (Fig. 11a-d). This

heating is produced by the zonally asymmetric distribution

of SWV in the tropics, and consistent with the increased

surface downward longwave flux over the tropical Pacific

in WACCM (Fig. 9a). Thus, it is possible that the SWV

forcing from the eruption would favor a positive phase of

ENSO on a multi-year timescale, but further work is re-

quired to confirm this, in particular with a model including

fully interactive ocean and cloud feedbacks."

 

 So, @George001may very well be doing several years in a row of “how strong will El Niño get” starting with 2025-6 if this publication were to have a good clue.

If we get a strong la nina, then I don't see us having another El Nino until at least 2027-28. There were 4 times we have gone from strong el nino to strong la nina, and each time, the next el nino was at least 3 years later.

1973 - Next el nino was 1976-77 (3 years later, moderate repeated following year)

1988 - Next el nino was 1991-92 (3 years later, strong)

1998 - Next el nino was 2002-03 (4 years later)

2010 - Next el nino was 2014-15 (4 years later, following year would be a super el nino)

There have been 8 strong la nina years. Only once, in 1976 (following the 3rd year of a la nina), did we transition to any type of el nino.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we get a strong la nina, then I don't see us having another El Nino until at least 2027-28. There were 4 times we have gone from strong el nino to strong la nina, and each time, the next el nino was at least 3 years later.

1973 - Next el nino was 1976-77 (3 years later, moderate repeated following year)

1988 - Next el nino was 1991-92 (3 years later, strong)

1998 - Next el nino was 2002-03 (4 years later)

2010 - Next el nino was 2014-15 (4 years later, following year would be a super el nino)

There have been 8 strong la nina years. Only once, in 1976 (following the 3rd year of a la nina), did we transition to any type of el nino.

 Interesting! With a strong Niña quite possible and even more possible on a RONI basis, I feel your analysis is pertinent. I was just getting ready to post the last times we had a Nino/Niña/Nino progression for any strength of Nino/Nina, which I assume you know at least back to 1950:

1) 2004-5/05-06/06-07 but they were all only weak

2) 1963-4/64-5/65-6 but 1963-4/64-5 were only moderate/weak

3) 1923-4/24-5/25-6 but 1923-4/24-5 were only moderate

4) 1902-3/03-4/04-5: 1902-3 was a strong Nino but 1903-4 was only a weak Nina

5) 1885-6/86-7/87-8 but 1885-6/86-7 were only moderate

 The above list fwiw suggests to me that there might be a better shot if 2024-5 were to end up only a moderate La Niña like 1924-5 and 1886-7. After all, it is still way too early to say that it is a forgone conclusion that 2024-5 will peak as a strong Niña. Also, keep in mind the unusual situation of this massive undersea volcanic eruption. Is it possible that analogs are not as useful as they’d otherwise be?

[George001]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Interesting! With a strong Niña quite possible and even more possible on a RONI basis, I feel your analysis is pertinent. I was just getting ready to post the last times we had a Nino/Niña/Nino progression for any strength of Nino/Nina, which I assume you know at least back to 1950:

1) 2004-5/05-06/06-07 but they were all only weak

2) 1963-4/64-5/65-6 but 1963-4/64-5 were only moderate/weak

3) 1923-4/24-5/25-6 but 1923-4/24-5 were only moderate

4) 1902-3/03-4/04-5: 1902-3 was a strong Nino but 1903-4 was only a weak Nina

5) 1885-6/86-7/87-8 but 1885-6/86-7 were only moderate

 The above list fwiw suggests to me that there might be a better shot if 2024-5 were to end up only a moderate La Niña like 1924-5 and 1886-7. After all, it is still way too early to say that it is a forgone conclusion that 2024-5 will peak as a strong Niña. Also, keep in mind the unusual situation of this massive undersea volcanic eruption. Is it possible that analogs are not as useful as they’d otherwise be?

While I don’t think this Niña will be weak, that’s a good point. There is some support for a moderate event from guidance as well. For probabilities, my early thoughts are something like this for now:

ENSO neutral: 5%
weak Niña: 5%
moderate Niña: 30%
strong Niña: 60%

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, my early thoughts are healthy Modoki La Nina and -PDO.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 3/23/2024 at 4:58 PM, GaWx said:

 CANSIPS has Aleutian high/-PNA/+EPO/+NAO/+AO/-PDO in its latest fcast for next winter: yippee I can’t wait /hope it is wrong. Regardless, winter is still my favorite season since even a mild one would be 25+ colder with way less humidity than the typical miserable summer here (along with no bugs ). Also, even a mild one would be far more interesting than summer with much more day to day volatility.

...

The last 8 winters here in interior southern New England are sensibly quite similar. They may be differentiable in scalar numbers - getting ever more discrete in one's analysis to prove outlooks. But at some point doing so falls beneath what can ever appeal to anyone's experience.

The sensible differences are too small.  

This is true having leading El Ninos and La Ninas over that short-sided decade.  The winters have seemed to follow the same plat layout.  Early cool shots and an October/Novie snow and/or snow supportive synoptic washing, fades into mid level velocity soaked shred fest of model bombs at D11 that turn out be busted raviolis on the daily charts/short range.  Then, "spring" arrives, the velocities hint at slowing ... blocking results.  MLB looks like assholes sticking guys out there in outfields ... shivering in the northern ballparks with even flurries in the air   (taking some liberties here for fun - ).

I dunno maybe this is was all PDO forcing this. Or western Pacific IOH in a coupled atmospheric state that...  It just seems too much energy is devoted to ENSO.  It plays a roll, some years more than others.  But it's like with everything in this business... it all comes down to juggling wave functions at all scales.  If they are in constructive(destructive) interference, dictates how 'visible' they are in the resulting statistics of how a season behaved.

Lately, less ...

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

List of El Nino to La Nina transition years (bolded are best analog years for 2024-25)

1954: Weak El Nino -> Weak La Nina (followed by Strong La Nina in 1955-56)

1964: Moderate El Nino -> Weak La Nina

1970: Weak El Nino (preceded by Moderate El Nino in 1968-69) -> Moderate La Nina

1973: Super El Nino -> Strong La Nina

1983: Super El Nino -> Weak La Nina (followed by Moderate La Nina in 1984-85)

1988: Strong El Nino -> Strong La Nina

1995: Moderate El Nino -> Moderate La Nina

1998: Super El Nino -> Strong La Nina (repeated in 1999-2000)

2005: Weak El Nino -> Weak La Nina

2007: Weak El Nino -> Strong La Nina

2010: Strong El Nino -> Strong La Nina

2016: Super El Nino -> Weak La Nina (repeated in 2017-18)

2020: Maybe Weak El Nino (preceded by Weak El Nino in 2018-19) -> Moderate La Nina (repeated in 2021-22 and 2022-23)

[GaWx]

56 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

List of El Nino to La Nina transition years (bolded are best analog years for 2024-25)

1954: Weak El Nino -> Weak La Nina (followed by Strong La Nina in 1955-56)

1964: Moderate El Nino -> Weak La Nina

1970: Weak El Nino (preceded by Moderate El Nino in 1968-69) -> Moderate La Nina

1973: Super El Nino -> Strong La Nina

1983: Super El Nino -> Weak La Nina (followed by Moderate La Nina in 1984-85)

1988: Strong El Nino -> Strong La Nina

1995: Moderate El Nino -> Moderate La Nina

1998: Super El Nino -> Strong La Nina (repeated in 1999-2000)

2005: Weak El Nino -> Weak La Nina

2007: Weak El Nino -> Strong La Nina

2010: Strong El Nino -> Strong La Nina

2016: Super El Nino -> Weak La Nina (repeated in 2017-18)

2020: Maybe Weak El Nino (preceded by Weak El Nino in 2018-19) -> Moderate La Nina (repeated in 2021-22 and 2022-23)

I love this kind of stuff! Thanks for posting.
 

1) I’ll do the same with pre 1950 using Eric Webb’s table: Nino to Nina

1856: mod Nino to mod Nina

1869: mod Nino to weak Nina 

1886: mod Nino to mod Nina

1889: super Nino to mod Nina

1903: strong Nino to weak Nina

1920: weak Nino to weak Nina

1924: mod Nino to mod Nina

1942: mod Nino to mod Nina

 2) There were nine strong to super Ninos 1850-1950. Of these nine, none transitioned directly to a strong to super Niña, which is very much unlike the four out of the nine strong to super Ninos that you showed did so from 1950-present:

Pre-1950: 1 went to mod Niña, 1 went to weak Niña, 5 went to neutral, 1 went to weak Nino, 1 went to mod El Nino

Webb’s data from here:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

[michsnowfreak]

On 3/24/2024 at 1:25 PM, GaWx said:

 Per the link below that pertains to long term impact from the 2022 Tonga volcano, we may very well go right back to El Nino in 2025-6 and quite possibly a multi-year version. Note how the DJF temperature anomaly pattern over the US in figure 7a (which covers the progged peak period of effects 2025-2029 or the interval of 3-7 yrs after eruption) comes rather close to a typical El Niño, including the cool SE and mild NW. Also, note especially figure 11d, which shows an El Ninolike Pacific SSTa pattern:

 

 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/372889143_Long-term_surface_impact_of_Hunga_Tonga-Hunga_Ha'apai-like_stratospheric_water_vapor_injection

 

"The MiMA simulations confirm the robustness of

the SWV-induced wave structure in the Pacific (Fig. 11ef),

and they produce tropical surface temperature anomalies

consistent with an El Ni˜

no-like pattern (Fig. 11a-d). This

heating is produced by the zonally asymmetric distribution

of SWV in the tropics, and consistent with the increased

surface downward longwave flux over the tropical Pacific

in WACCM (Fig. 9a). Thus, it is possible that the SWV

forcing from the eruption would favor a positive phase of

ENSO on a multi-year timescale, but further work is re-

quired to confirm this, in particular with a model including

fully interactive ocean and cloud feedbacks."

 

 So, @George001may very well be doing several years in a row of “how strong will El Niño get” starting with 2025-6 if this publication were to have a good clue.

Interesting in that those simulations seem to show much cooler summers than we have seen recently.

[so_whats_happening]

Some pretty solid subsurface negative anomalies showing up. Ill look to keep track of this probably starting next month. Warmth at the surface still holding on decently near the dateline, we will see for how long though.

Models are still having trouble with the MJO forecast I could see a weaker bout for 3/4 coming up here after 1/2 before it picks up again for 6/7/8. It will be interesting to see what this does as we get closer to summer time with the hurricane season. Slowly looking more and more Nina like aloft, VP starting to head back toward the Maritime Continent.

[so_whats_happening]

Here is a 90 day coralreef animation to start things off.

There does actually seem to be some cooling of the WPAC warmth just under Japan in the recent month. This should as Raindance mentioned help with a weakening of values for the -PDO coming up. Let us see what happens.

[raindancewx]

We're nearing the end of that fabulous period in the Rockies I call "bullshit Spring". It runs from 2/15-4/15. High elevation zones often get smoked with heavy snow, high wind and frequent rapid temperature changes.

Once 'bullshit Spring' ends the next item to look for is when heat arrives in the Southwest. La Ninas that see early heat in Albuquerque (90F by 5/10 or so) tend to be relatively cold winters in the Southwest with more frequent cold waves. Given the harmonic tendencies of recent months, I actually think May could be fairly cold here. We've actually not hit 70F yet here, even though late March average highs are about 65F. 

I was checking some observations in the highlands of Mexico the other day. Nino 1.2 has flipped negative v. averages. Typically the vacating of excess heat in that zone accompanies unusually dry air getting fairly close to the equator. I saw some dew points as far South as 15-20N in the teens (F) in recent days. Normal dew points are ~40(F) ish in that area of the world in March. 

[so_whats_happening]

5 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

We're nearing the end of that fabulous period in the Rockies I call "bullshit Spring". It runs from 2/15-4/15. High elevation zones often get smoked with heavy snow, high wind and frequent rapid temperature changes.

Once 'bullshit Spring' ends the next item to look for is when heat arrives in the Southwest. La Ninas that see early heat in Albuquerque (90F by 5/10 or so) tend to be relatively cold winters in the Southwest with more frequent cold waves. Given the harmonic tendencies of recent months, I actually think May could be fairly cold here. We've actually not hit 70F yet here, even though late March average highs are about 65F. 

I was checking some observations in the highlands of Mexico the other day. Nino 1.2 has flipped negative v. averages. Typically the vacating of excess heat in that zone accompanies unusually dry air getting fairly close to the equator. I saw some dew points as far South as 15-20N in the teens (F) in recent days. Normal dew points are ~40(F) ish in that area of the world in March. 

It will be interesting to see how things go to mid April. Western ridging around the GOA with a -NAO blocking flow sounds like more troughing into the west through early April and severe weather into the plains.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

List of El Nino to La Nina transition years (bolded are best analog years for 2024-25)

1954: Weak El Nino -> Weak La Nina (followed by Strong La Nina in 1955-56)

1964: Moderate El Nino -> Weak La Nina

1970: Weak El Nino (preceded by Moderate El Nino in 1968-69) -> Moderate La Nina

1973: Super El Nino -> Strong La Nina

1983: Super El Nino -> Weak La Nina (followed by Moderate La Nina in 1984-85)

1988: Strong El Nino -> Strong La Nina

1995: Moderate El Nino -> Moderate La Nina

1998: Super El Nino -> Strong La Nina (repeated in 1999-2000)

2005: Weak El Nino -> Weak La Nina

2007: Weak El Nino -> Strong La Nina

2010: Strong El Nino -> Strong La Nina

2016: Super El Nino -> Weak La Nina (repeated in 2017-18)

2020: Maybe Weak El Nino (preceded by Weak El Nino in 2018-19) -> Moderate La Nina (repeated in 2021-22 and 2022-23)

The first 3 are Modoki, the latter had an eastern lean. 

[George001]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The first 3 are Modoki, the latter had an eastern lean. 

What was 2007-2008? That could be another possible analog. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, George001 said:

What was 2007-2008? That could be another possible analog. 

Basin-wide, but QBO will be polar opposite. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Really cold in the subsurface now. For comparison, this may rival the strongest subsurface anomalies we saw in this past El Nino. 

[so_whats_happening]

21 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really cold in the subsurface now. For comparison, this may rival the strongest subsurface anomalies we saw in this past El Nino. 

I was just about to post this quite the increase in negative anomalies (or decrease, however you choose to look at it) in just 5 days. This also seems farther west then past events have shown which end up around 120-140 W currently this is sitting just east of the dateline.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I was just about to post this quite the increase in negative anomalies (or decrease, however you choose to look at it) in just 5 days. This also seems farther west then past events have shown which end up around 120-140 W currently this is sitting just east of the dateline.

-PNA pattern starting to set in.  https://ibb.co/DVGmNdf

https://ibb.co/c1ws74X

I've researched this, the PNA is more sensitive to ENSO central-subsurface than any other ENSO measurement, including surface SSTs and the MEI, at 0-time. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

CFSv2 ENSO probability index has 2024-25 challenging 1973-74 and 1988-89 for the strongest la nina ever: 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

CFSv2 ENSO probability index has 2024-25 challenging 1973-74 and 1988-89 for the strongest la nina ever: 

Regarding 1850-1950 per Eric Webb’s table for those who may be curious, 1916-7 was a similarly very strong Niña with a -2.1 trimonthly dip (super Niña). No other 1850-1950 Niña is comparable per Webb as the next strongest are two that dipped to -1.4 during the early 1890s.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

[GaWx]

 Fwiw (not much with this very small sample plus the new climate we’re in and predicting ONI this far out very difficult)(I’ll need to delete this post/image soon due to attachment limits):