2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

@PhiEaglesfan712Your thought process is very similar to mine about 3 years ago....you know your stuff, but your thought process surrounding analogs is a bit too reductive and all or nothing. You need to assume a more nuanced approach to analogs and instead of looking to entirely dispell of endorse a particular season, look for the elements that provide value as an analog and those that do not. This is especilly important when we have a basin-wide La Nina such as this one, as these type of events often have mixed characteristics of west and east based events. For instance, I used to only look at seasons that we basin-wide and weak given that is the expectation for this La Nina, but there are just too many variables to be that honed in as far as analog criteria goes. There maybe La Nina seasons in other designations that are far better exatra tropical Pacific matches and or solar matches, for instance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Oh, I'd love to be in your location. Only thing that will save me is my interior location and 600' asleep. That said, 07/08 still stunk here.

If I had your eleveation, then I'd really be sitting pretty. I'm only about 150' here on the interior coastal plane near the MA/NH border.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Oh, I'd love to be in your location. Only thing that will save me is my interior location and 600' asleep. That said, 07/08 still stunk here.

Yeah, 07/08 stunk in terms of snowfall in the PHL area. The only saving grace was the winter wasn't overly warm. We even carved out a below average temperature November and a snowfall in early December. The weaker back half of the la nina (08/09) was better. At least we got a cold October-January, a November snowfall, and two 8-in snowstorms (on February 4 and March 1-2) when the temperatures moderated out. I guess that's how 2022-23 could have looked like if things were in place better.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The competing marine heatwaves angle may be  part of the equation. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the only other recent time this happened was in 2022. Now that the models are forecasting the tropics to become more active in early September something similar happened after a quiet August in 2022. We don’t know yet whether September will manifest in a similar way to 2022, but the record warmth closer to the Gulf is concerning for any storms that can get in there.

So far the models are not showing any major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin from August 20th through September 1st. This isn’t a typical occurrence for heading into a La Niña winter. The only other years this happened since 1995 were in 2022 and 2000. While the sample size is very small to draw from, 2022 had a very active September with hurricanes Danielle and Earl reaching cat 1 and cat 2 status. The big stories that month were Fiona going Cat 4 and Ian Cat 5. 
 

La Niña years since 1995 major hurricanes August 20th September 1st

2022….none

2021….Ida….Cat 4…..Larry Cat 3

2020…Laura Cat 4

2017….Harvey Cat 4…Irma Cat 5

2016….Gaston Cat 3

2011….Irene Cat 3

2010…Danielle Cat 4….Earl Cat 4

2008….Gaston Cat 4

2007…..Dean….Cat 5

2005…..Katrina Cat 5

2000…..none

1999…..Brett Cat 4….Cindy Cat 4

1998…..Bonnie Cat 3

1995…..Louis Cat 4

The ante may be going way up within just a few days after Sept 1 as you alluded to based on 0Z/6Z guidance. A MH is being shown as a legit possibility. So, whereas there won’t be one 8/20-9/1, there may be one by, say, 9/4. How would that affect your analysis? Neither 2000 nor 2022 had their 2nd MH of the season til 9/20+.

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

See, this is why I think New England has a shot to do well....2022-2023 would have been pretty good with anything less than record low western CONUS heights, which 2007-2008 is a wonderful illustration of.

Agree for the most part but I’m not sure we see strong NAO/AO blocking like we did in December ‘22. The more I look at it, the more hostile I think the NAO/NAM are going to be. As far as the other “analogs” going around twitter (i.e. ‘17-‘18 ‘95-‘96 ‘83-‘84 ‘10-‘11 ‘13-‘14 ‘20-‘21) completely asinine and nothing more than wishcasting 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agree for the most part but I’m not sure we see strong NAO/AO blocking like we did in December ‘22. The more I look at it, the more hostile I think the NAO/NAM are going to be. As far as the other “analogs” going around twitter (i.e. ‘17-‘18 ‘95-‘96 ‘83-‘84 ‘10-‘11 ‘13-‘14 ‘20-‘21) completely asinine and nothing more than wishcasting 

I feel pretty strongly that December isn't going to be downright hostile...if there isn't NAO/AO blocking, then there should be poleward ridging. I feel better about March for the NAO/AO domain. Remember, while the solar considerations are bit more hostile for blocking than in 2022, the La Nina is less so. Its going to be a bit weaker and more east-based.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2008-09 la nina (winter) vs. 2022-23 la nina (peak and winter):

 

[michsnowfreak]

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

When I mention lack of skill, I am referring to forecasting for two specific locations (Raleigh and Richmond) for a specific month. I do think the odds favor a warmer than normal winter in much of the East given the likely state of ENSO, PDO, and long-term warming, etc. Aside from New England, I also lean toward below normal snowfall. New England may do better than it has during the last two winters. A lot can still change, but that's my early thinking.

Don, are you leaning towards wet/snowy for the Great Lakes as are some of the other forecasts?

[michsnowfreak]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel pretty strongly that December isn't going to be downright hostile...if there isn't NAO/AO blocking, then there should be poleward ridging. I feel better about March for the NAO/AO domain. Remember, while the solar considerations are bit more hostile for blocking than in 2022, the La Nina is less so. Its going to be a bit weaker and more east-based.

Ive said this many times, but Ill say it again. Without analyzing anything currently going on, one thing that stands out to me here is the frequency of cold/snowy Decembers in a nina/nina pattern. Whats more, those often immediately follow mild or warm Autumns. Is it a slam dunk? Absolutely not. But when isolating the nina years, the frequency of good Decembers is far above overall climo.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Ive said this many times, but Ill say it again. Without analyzing anything currently going on, one thing that stands out to me here is the frequency of cold/snowy Decembers in a nina/nina pattern. Whats more, those often immediately follow mild or warm Autumns. Is it a slam dunk? Absolutely not. But when isolating the nina years, the frequency of good Decembers is far above overall climo.

Completely different for you guys. You actually want a +NAO so the SE ridge flexes and sends the storms into the lakes

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Ive said this many times, but Ill say it again. Without analyzing anything currently going on, one thing that stands out to me here is the frequency of cold/snowy Decembers in a nina/nina pattern. Whats more, those often immediately follow mild or warm Autumns. Is it a slam dunk? Absolutely not. But when isolating the nina years, the frequency of good Decembers is far above overall climo.

I know December 2022 was mild, but that is due to the record RNA rendering the blocking moot....ALL of the cold dumped west. It shouldn't be quite so extreme this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Completely different for you guys. You actually want a +NAO so the SE ridge flexes and sends the storms into the lakes

Those should still get us in C/SNE with some snow, regardless of whether it ends up a mess. This is what I was saying to Bluewave about why we have also been unlucky...we haven't even been able to time a high right to get that more often than not over the past several years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I had over 80" in 2007-2008 that way....systems cutting west running into antecedent cold. I don't expect 80", but you get the point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

A large proportation of the annual snowfall on the east coast is dirty...meaning that it isn't produced via a Benchmark bomb....imperfect set ups that yield messy returns is how a lot of it comes.

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know December 2022 was mild, but that is due to the record RNA rendering the blocking moot....ALL of the cold dumped west. It shouldn't be quite so extreme this year.

It was. In fact, thats another example of why we are due in December, because the historical frequency of very wintry Decembers in a Nina has not reared its head as much the last few ninas. After back to back good Decembers in 2016 & 2017, its been December blahs since. We have had abnormally snowy Novembers, Januarys, Februarys, Marchs, & Aprils. Its Decembers turn.

The Christmas cold snap did make Dec 2022 show as just a slightly mild month though. If more of the west cold dumped further east, it couldve easily finished colder.

STATION:   DETROIT MI
                                          MONTH:     DECEMBER
                                          YEAR:      2022
                                          LATITUDE:   42 13 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  83 20 W

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  39  27  33  -3  32   0    T    T    0 12.1 28 280   M    M   8        36 280
 2  53  31  42   7  23   0 0.00  0.0    0 13.8 35 210   M    M  10        48 220
 3  53  26  40   5  25   0 0.03  0.0    0 18.6 39 280   M    M   8 1      58 290
 4  37  20  29  -5  36   0 0.00  0.0    0 11.3 18 230   M    M   2        24 220
 5  45  25  35   1  30   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.9 20 200   M    M   7        25 190
 6  47  40  44  10  21   0 0.01  0.0    0  3.9 15 140   M    M  10 18     19 150
 7  47  42  45  11  20   0 0.01  0.0    0  4.2  9 320   M    M  10 18     13 330
 8  44  34  39   6  26   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.4 13 330   M    M  10        16 340
 9  38  32  35   2  30   0    T    T    0 12.2 22  60   M    M  10        29  60
10  37  32  35   2  30   0    T    T    0  8.1 16  60   M    M  10        23  60
11  41  35  38   6  27   0    T    T    0  6.7 12 310   M    M  10 18     15 300
12  38  32  35   3  30   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.1 12  60   M    M  10        17  40
13  35  30  33   1  32   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.3 15  60   M    M  10        23  60
14  41  32  37   5  28   0 0.00  0.0    0 11.7 21  90   M    M   9        38 100
15  45  36  41  10  24   0 0.74  0.0    0 11.2 22  90   M    M  10 1      36 110
16  36  30  33   2  32   0    T  0.1    0 11.6 22 240   M    M  10 1      28 240
17  31  27  29  -2  36   0    T  0.1    T 13.9 21 240   M    M  10        27 240
18  28  23  26  -4  39   0    T  0.2    T 15.5 21 260   M    M  10        28 250
19  30  24  27  -3  38   0    T    T    T  9.0 16 280   M    M  10         M   M
20  35  25  30   0  35   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.6 14 200   M    M   8        18 200
21  33  22  28  -2  37   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.1  9 130   M    M   8 18     13 100
22  41  30  36   6  29   0 0.25    T    0  6.8 20 290   M    M  10 18     26 300
23  34   0  17 -12  48   0 0.11  2.2    1 26.3 35 230   M    M  10 19     48 260
24  15   1   8 -21  57   0 0.02  0.3    2 24.9 36 230   M    M  10 9      47 230
25  16  12  14 -15  51   0 0.05  2.1    3 15.6 23 220   M    M  10 1      29 230
26  22  13  18 -11  47   0    T    T    4 10.0 15 220   M    M  10        19 220
27  29  19  24  -4  41   0    T    T    3 11.2 20 220   M    M  10 8      27 220
28  41  29  35   7  30   0 0.00  0.0    3 14.3 24 210   M    M  10        32 220
29  53  33  43  15  22   0 0.00  0.0    1 11.5 18 210   M    M   9        24 200
30  55  47  51  23  14   0 0.62  0.0    0 11.5 22 220   M    M  10 1      28 220
31  47  37  42  14  23   0 0.50  0.0    0  6.5 13 250   M    M  10 18     16 300
================================================================================
SM 1186  846       993   0  2.34  5.0    342.8          M      289

 

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Don, are you leaning towards wet/snowy for the Great Lakes as are some of the other forecasts?

Probably near normal snowfall in the Detroit area.

[michsnowfreak]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Completely different for you guys. You actually want a +NAO so the SE ridge flexes and sends the storms into the lakes

That is true. There are so many fascinating features to the weather, that its really hard to keep them straight. One thing I have ALWAYS said since Ive been on the weather boards, is that in eastern Michigan, we are kinda split between "whats good for the midwest" or "whats good for the east".

I kick myself for not saving this list someone made years ago...it was snowstorms and what the NAO was. Many of them did, in fact, come with a +NAO. I typically associate -NAO with cold, clippers, and suppression. It can be a good thing if theres a good snowpack and a clipper parade, but it can suck if its cold and dry with everything going way south.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

It was. In fact, thats another example of why we are due in December, because the historical frequency of very wintry Decembers in a Nina has not reared its head as much the last few ninas. After back to back good Decembers in 2016 & 2017, its been December blahs since. We have had abnormally snowy Novembers, Januarys, Februarys, Marchs, & Aprils. Its Decembers turn.

The Christmas cold snap did make Dec 2022 show as just a slightly mild month though. If more of the west cold dumped further east, it couldve easily finished colder.

STATION:   DETROIT MI
                                          MONTH:     DECEMBER
                                          YEAR:      2022
                                          LATITUDE:   42 13 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  83 20 W

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  39  27  33  -3  32   0    T    T    0 12.1 28 280   M    M   8        36 280
 2  53  31  42   7  23   0 0.00  0.0    0 13.8 35 210   M    M  10        48 220
 3  53  26  40   5  25   0 0.03  0.0    0 18.6 39 280   M    M   8 1      58 290
 4  37  20  29  -5  36   0 0.00  0.0    0 11.3 18 230   M    M   2        24 220
 5  45  25  35   1  30   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.9 20 200   M    M   7        25 190
 6  47  40  44  10  21   0 0.01  0.0    0  3.9 15 140   M    M  10 18     19 150
 7  47  42  45  11  20   0 0.01  0.0    0  4.2  9 320   M    M  10 18     13 330
 8  44  34  39   6  26   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.4 13 330   M    M  10        16 340
 9  38  32  35   2  30   0    T    T    0 12.2 22  60   M    M  10        29  60
10  37  32  35   2  30   0    T    T    0  8.1 16  60   M    M  10        23  60
11  41  35  38   6  27   0    T    T    0  6.7 12 310   M    M  10 18     15 300
12  38  32  35   3  30   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.1 12  60   M    M  10        17  40
13  35  30  33   1  32   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.3 15  60   M    M  10        23  60
14  41  32  37   5  28   0 0.00  0.0    0 11.7 21  90   M    M   9        38 100
15  45  36  41  10  24   0 0.74  0.0    0 11.2 22  90   M    M  10 1      36 110
16  36  30  33   2  32   0    T  0.1    0 11.6 22 240   M    M  10 1      28 240
17  31  27  29  -2  36   0    T  0.1    T 13.9 21 240   M    M  10        27 240
18  28  23  26  -4  39   0    T  0.2    T 15.5 21 260   M    M  10        28 250
19  30  24  27  -3  38   0    T    T    T  9.0 16 280   M    M  10         M   M
20  35  25  30   0  35   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.6 14 200   M    M   8        18 200
21  33  22  28  -2  37   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.1  9 130   M    M   8 18     13 100
22  41  30  36   6  29   0 0.25    T    0  6.8 20 290   M    M  10 18     26 300
23  34   0  17 -12  48   0 0.11  2.2    1 26.3 35 230   M    M  10 19     48 260
24  15   1   8 -21  57   0 0.02  0.3    2 24.9 36 230   M    M  10 9      47 230
25  16  12  14 -15  51   0 0.05  2.1    3 15.6 23 220   M    M  10 1      29 230
26  22  13  18 -11  47   0    T    T    4 10.0 15 220   M    M  10        19 220
27  29  19  24  -4  41   0    T    T    3 11.2 20 220   M    M  10 8      27 220
28  41  29  35   7  30   0 0.00  0.0    3 14.3 24 210   M    M  10        32 220
29  53  33  43  15  22   0 0.00  0.0    1 11.5 18 210   M    M   9        24 200
30  55  47  51  23  14   0 0.62  0.0    0 11.5 22 220   M    M  10 1      28 220
31  47  37  42  14  23   0 0.50  0.0    0  6.5 13 250   M    M  10 18     16 300
================================================================================
SM 1186  846       993   0  2.34  5.0    342.8          M      289

 

December 2022 finished below average temperaturewise here at PHL, making it 2 out of 3 months with a negative temperature departure (along with October 2022). However, I could tell a change was underway during the final 2 days of December. The first week of January was really warm and pretty much set the tone for the rest of the winter. (It was warm more often than not until the last week of April.) I went to the Eagles game that January 1 (we lost to the Saints, in an otherwise outstanding season) and it felt like spring. The climatology shows 57/39, but it easily felt a lot warmer that day, and I didn't really need a coat.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

December 2022 finished below average temperaturewise here at PHL, making it 2 out of 3 months with a negative temperature departure (along with October 2022). However, I could tell a change was underway during the final 2 days of December. The first week of January was really warm and pretty much set the tone for the rest of the winter. (It was warm more often than not until the last week of April.) I went to the Eagles game that January 1 (we lost to the Saints, in an otherwise outstanding season) and it felt like spring. The climatology shows 57/39, but it easily felt a lot warmer that day, and I didn't really need a coat.

Mid November, Christmas week, late January to early Feb and the first half of March were wintry. Definitely had a few fun storms. But the rest of 22-23 sucked. The scenery the last third of Jan was gorgeous because of wet snowstorms on Jan 22 & 25. But when you're getting wet snow in the dead of winter up here, you know it's a mild pattern.

[brooklynwx99]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A large proportation of the annual snowfall on the east coast is dirty...meaning that it isn't produced via a Benchmark bomb....imperfect set ups that yield messy returns is how a lot of it comes.

the farther south you go, the more luck is a factor as well. people don't really like to admit that since it isn't really quantifiable, but it's true

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

The ante may be going way up within just a few days after Sept 1 as you alluded to based on 0Z/6Z guidance. A MH is being shown as a legit possibility. So, whereas there won’t be one 8/20-9/1, there may be one by, say, 9/4. How would that affect your analysis? Neither 2000 nor 2022 had their 2nd MH of the season til 9/20+.

It remains to be seen since there is such a small sample size of inactive years between 8-20 and 8-31 during La Ninas. 

[FPizz]

19 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I agree that the colder WB control runs are the ones posted by people, including JB. And I know that the TT runs are an average of 3 days of runs (12 runs). But I maintain that the WB CFS map related algorithms are highly flawed based on the many insanely cold WB CFS control runs that I’ve posted about both here and especially in the NY forum.
 
 For one, why are there so many record cold winter WB CFS runs in the first place? If there were an apples to apples comparison to other sources’ individual control runs, I’d bet very heavily they wouldn’t be nearly as cold. Secondly, these record cold runs almost always have a warm spot near N Lake Michigan/Michigan while S Lake Michigan is much colder/near record cold! The example below has anomalies of +2C in N L Mich while a mere 250 miles S it is -7C, a difference of 9C/16F, for Jan ‘25! No way! These are big hints that these maps are heavily flawed. And note the multiple areas of -7C/-13F scattered throughout the E US. These are all near all time record cold for Jan. These maps are essentially fake news as far as I am concerned. JB posting them is irresponsible but he doesn’t care. @donsutherland1follows these along with me and agrees with my assessment of JB and these ridiculous WB CFS maps.

 I used to be skeptical of this but I now believe that these are being used by them for marketing purposes. Also, anything that promotes cold is consistent with JB not believing in AGW as being significant.

 By the way, he’s now promoting an article stating in its headline that the Atlantic is now cooling at a record pace when in reality the article is saying that only a portion of the equatorial E Atlantic has cooled at a record pace since March. Lmao. He’s now taking that ridiculous misinformation and implying that the globe is now cooling due to decreased underwater seismic activity. I kid you not!

 

He's one person.  But anything with recorrd warming, even if a small area, gets post 1000s of times by numerous outlets along with tons of hysteria and doom and gloom.  It works both ways, but swayed wayyy more when warming is mentioned.  

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A large proportation of the annual snowfall on the east coast is dirty...meaning that it isn't produced via a Benchmark bomb....imperfect set ups that yield messy returns is how a lot of it comes.

I read this post a bit Tip like lol. Not sure exactly what you're saying? Meaning nickels and dimes or mix events on the coast? Obviously we thrive at nickels and dimes in the Lakes, but that's what makes winter winter to me. We get good storms, but the number of smaller events is usually what makes or breaks a season. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Winter precipitation composite for moderate -PDO la ninas since 1949-50: 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A large proportation of the annual snowfall on the east coast is dirty...meaning that it isn't produced via a Benchmark bomb....imperfect set ups that yield messy returns is how a lot of it comes.

The exception to that was 09-10 to 17-18 with the very high concentration of BM snowstorms. Starting in 18-19 we shifted to more of a coastal hugger, cutter, and suppressed southern stream pattern. While all the winters going back to 15-16 were warmer to record warm in the Northeast, we still had a very favorable Pacific through the November 2018 snowstorm. Then we entered the very hostile Pacific phase that winter.

People were willing to overlook all the warmth from 15-16 to 17-18 since the benchmark put on a real show for snow lovers. But warmth and a hostile Pacific won’t cut it around here for good winters. 20-21 really went against the grain for one the strongest +PNA patterns for such a robust La Niña. Seems like a piece of that repeated briefly in January 22. Since then it really has been pretty much a shout out for winter.

Hoping we can at least see some snowfall improvement over the last two winters even though the early signals are there for a potential 10th warmer than normal winter in a row for the Northeast. 

[George001]

40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the farther south you go, the more luck is a factor as well. people don't really like to admit that since it isn't really quantifiable, but it's true

This is another reason why im not a fan of the simplistic “x analog is snowy here, y analog isn’t” approach. It’s more complicated than that. Luck is a huge factor when it comes to snowfall totals. A good example is 2016-2017, that winter was something like +4 AN, yet snowfall was slightly above average. I suspect a repeat of that exact same pattern would lead to a significantly worse outcome more often than not, we just happened to cash in on just about every window of opportunity. 2022-2023 is another example but on the opposite end, repeat that pattern and I would expect a snowier outcome in December and March. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

55 minutes ago, George001 said:

This is another reason why im not a fan of the simplistic “x analog is snowy here, y analog isn’t” approach. It’s more complicated than that. Luck is a huge factor when it comes to snowfall totals. A good example is 2016-2017, that winter was something like +4 AN, yet snowfall was slightly above average. I suspect a repeat of that exact same pattern would lead to a significantly worse outcome more often than not, we just happened to cash in on just about every window of opportunity. 2022-2023 is another example but on the opposite end, repeat that pattern and I would expect a snowier outcome in December and March. 

I think timing, more than anything, is what killed 2022-23, especially in the mid-Atlantic. By the time the pattern became more favorable, the sun angle was too strong (here in the mid-Atlantic) and the torch winter had already happened. But hey, we did get our coldest June since 1985! Just the fact that May and June were really cold shows the potential of what could have been with better timing. If that favorable pattern had begin to form in late November/December, rather than late February/March, that's a near guaranteed blockbuster winter for most of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.

[so_whats_happening]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A large proportation of the annual snowfall on the east coast is dirty...meaning that it isn't produced via a Benchmark bomb....imperfect set ups that yield messy returns is how a lot of it comes.

Yea it is quite hit or miss around here. We play the WAA game with guessing just how strong and quick it happens before we switch.

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the farther south you go, the more luck is a factor as well. people don't really like to admit that since it isn't really quantifiable, but it's true

I mean I can see the drastic differences from Allentown to Lancaster to Baltimore and that is about 100mile ish difference in total. You can see the difference back in the day between Allentown and Philly, although I don't live over that way anymore we used to set up right on the edge around King of Prussia while Philly switched and Allentown was getting buried. Even from Lancaster to Baltimore I usually can guess where the rain/snow line typically sets up now and it has retreated in these borderline events further North and West.

Cant say with certainty every storm will end up that way but when we see 2-3x Baltimore snows it becomes noticeable much more so when Baltimore only sees a 4" season and we are barely scraping a foot on the year. Definitely makes forecasting hard around here from about Trenton south to DC and west to about Harrisburg.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I feel like an east based la nina is the only way we're going to salvage the snow season for those living in coastal areas, like ACY. Aside from 2010-11 (which was a widespread blockbuster winter), ACY has underperformed in central-based la nina years. 2020-21 is a very good example of this. Even in ENSO neutral years like 1992-93 and 1993-94, ACY got less than half the snow of PHL and significantly less than Allentown. (In 1993-94, ACY only got a tenth of the amount of snow as Allentown 7.8 in vs. 75.2 in.)

The east-based la nina years, 2017-18 and 2021-22, are really the ones where ACY outperformed relative to the region.

[snowman19]

34 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I feel like an east based la nina is the only way we're going to salvage the snow season for those living in coastal areas, like ACY. Aside from 2010-11 (which was a widespread blockbuster winter), ACY has underperformed in central-based la nina years. 2020-21 is a very good example of this. Even in ENSO neutral years like 1992-93 and 1993-94, ACY got less than half the snow of PHL and significantly less than Allentown. (In 1993-94, ACY only got a tenth of the amount of snow as Allentown 7.8 in vs. 75.2 in.)

The east-based la nina years, 2017-18 and 2021-22, are really the ones where ACY outperformed relative to the region.

If we do actually end up seeing an official trimonthly La Niña (I’m not sure we do anymore) there’s no models showing it being east-based. I think we can take an east-based event off the table