2024-2025 La Nina

[FPizz]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I want to make sure you realize that that’s Andy Hazleton’s tweet that I posted, not JB’s.

He seems obsessed with JB.  No one ever mentions him here or quotes him. I think most realize he's been a joke for a decade plus now.  

[GaWx]

 So, is the current significant drop in Nino 3.4 finally going to take ONI down into weak La Niña territory? I suspect it is but it obviously remains to be seen. At least now the SOI is supportive.

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s him finding a way out of his forecast. Just an excuse. He’s been hyping a huge Atlantic hurricane season since the spring. You see this tactic with winter forecasts, they will find anything to say “my forecast would have been right if it wasn’t for the completely unexpected, unseen X that happened, no one could have possibly seen this coming!” @bluewave has shown how strong the large scale Niña like forcing has been for months now. It will not be 100% of the time and that applies to any type of forcing, there will be small scale temporary/transient anomalies and deviations from time to time 

Funny thing is, this winters forecast is similar to this year's hurricane forecast with everything looking slam dunk. Something to keep in mind for anyone doing this winters forecast.

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Funny thing is, this winters forecast is similar to this year's hurricane forecast with everything looking slam dunk. Something to keep in mind for anyone doing this winters forecast.

Correct. And not everyone thinks this winter is going to suck. The weenie twitter clowns are posting the CFS and saying the “analogs” are 83-84, 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 17-18 and 20-21. Normal yearly routine for them….

[brooklynwx99]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Funny thing is, this winters forecast is similar to this year's hurricane forecast with everything looking slam dunk. Something to keep in mind for anyone doing this winters forecast.

it would be hilarious if this winter ended up good for many people even though there were vibes and evidence to the contrary. I remember 20-21 was like that

for the record, I do not expect a good winter in the NE (especially outside of New England), but it would be funny... and definitely welcome

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Correct. And not everyone thinks this winter is going to suck. The weenie twitter clowns are posting the CFS and saying the “analogs” are 83-84, 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 17-18 and 20-21. Normal yearly routine for them….

You must mean the fake WxBell frigid CFS control runs. The real CFS runs per TT are mild.

[snowman19]

Just now, GaWx said:

You must mean the fake WxBell frigid CFS control runs. The real CFS runs per TT are mild.

That would be them. Just saw the bogus ice age wxbell run for DJFM get posted about an hour ago 

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

You must mean the fake WxBell frigid CFS control runs. The real CFS runs per TT are mild.

the CFS control runs on WB are just one run. TT averages the last 12 runs... WB isn't "wrong," it's just not an average. people just post the cold control runs

[mitchnick]

35 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the CFS control runs on WB are just one run. TT averages the last 12 runs... WB isn't "wrong," it's just not an average. people just post the cold control runs

Eps Control runs for storms have always been too cold and snowy imby. I  think they are run for "business  purposes" for their vendors to create excitement in the weenie wx world. I  know that sounds awfully cynical, but let's face it, a decent amount of money is spent by weenies for modeling and it can't be good for business to not throw a bone or 2 for the weenies.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the CFS control runs on WB are just one run. TT averages the last 12 runs... WB isn't "wrong," it's just not an average. people just post the cold control runs

 I agree that the colder WB control runs are the ones posted by people, including JB. And I know that the TT runs are an average of 3 days of runs (12 runs). But I maintain that the WB CFS map related algorithms are highly flawed based on the many insanely cold WB CFS control runs that I’ve posted about both here and especially in the NY forum.
 
 For one, why are there so many record cold winter WB CFS runs in the first place? If there were an apples to apples comparison to other sources’ individual control runs, I’d bet very heavily they wouldn’t be nearly as cold. Secondly, these record cold runs almost always have a warm spot near N Lake Michigan/Michigan while S Lake Michigan is much colder/near record cold! The example below has anomalies of +2C in N L Mich while a mere 250 miles S it is -7C, a difference of 9C/16F, for Jan ‘25! No way! These are big hints that these maps are heavily flawed. And note the multiple areas of -7C/-13F scattered throughout the E US. These are all near all time record cold for Jan. These maps are essentially fake news as far as I am concerned. JB posting them is irresponsible but he doesn’t care. @donsutherland1follows these along with me and agrees with my assessment of JB and these ridiculous WB CFS maps.

 I used to be skeptical of this but I now believe that these are being used by them for marketing purposes. Also, anything that promotes cold is consistent with JB not believing in AGW as being significant.

 By the way, he’s now promoting an article stating in its headline that the Atlantic is now cooling at a record pace when in reality the article is saying that only a portion of the equatorial E Atlantic has cooled at a record pace since March. Lmao. He’s now taking that ridiculous misinformation and implying that the globe is now cooling due to decreased underwater seismic activity. I kid you not!

 

[so_whats_happening]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

To be quite honest I just had a conversation about this last night. Quite weird to say the least especially going through a phase 1-2-3 MJO and not getting a single storm to pop in the Atlantic? Yet the EPAC and WPAC tossing out storms. There really does seem to be some strong disconnect happening and it really could be these marine heatwaves bluewave has been mentioning throwing things off.

 

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it would be hilarious if this winter ended up good for many people even though there were vibes and evidence to the contrary. I remember 20-21 was like that

for the record, I do not expect a good winter in the NE (especially outside of New England), but it would be funny... and definitely welcome

I think I would laugh so hard if this happened because I know seasonal forecasting is extremely tough let alone doing past 5 day forecasts. I like the confidence folks have on here but we really need to know things will not go as planned.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I agree that the colder WB control runs are the ones posted by people, including JB. And I know that the TT runs are an average of 3 days of runs (12 runs). But I maintain that the WB CFS map related algorithms are highly flawed based on the many insanely cold WB CFS control runs that I’ve posted about both here and especially in the NY forum.
 
 For one, why are there so many record cold winter WB CFS runs in the first place? If there were an apples to apples comparison to other sources’ individual control runs, I’d bet very heavily they wouldn’t be nearly as cold. Secondly, these record cold runs almost always have a warm spot near N Lake Michigan/Michigan while S Lake Michigan is much colder/near record cold! The example below has anomalies of +2C in N L Mich while a mere 250 miles S it is -7C, a difference of 9C/16F, for Jan ‘25! No way! These are big hints that these maps are heavily flawed. And note the multiple areas of -7C/-13F scattered throughout the E US. These are all near all time record cold for Jan. These maps are essentially fake news as far as I am concerned. JB posting them is irresponsible but he doesn’t care. @donsutherland1follows these along with me and agrees with my assessment of JB and these ridiculous WB CFS maps.

 I used to be skeptical of this but I now believe that these are being used by them for marketing purposes. Also, anything that promotes cold is consistent with JB not believing in AGW as being significant.

 By the way, he’s now promoting an article stating in its headline that the Atlantic is now cooling at a record pace when in reality the article is saying that only a portion of the equatorial E Atlantic has cooled at a record pace since March. Lmao. He’s now taking that ridiculous misinformation and implying that the globe is now cooling due to decreased underwater seismic activity. I kid you not!

 

We agree concerning the WB CFS maps. In fact, the above map shows a -7C anomaly in Richmond. Only two January cases (1940 and 1977) would satisfy what the map shows. It shows a -7.5C anomaly for Raleigh. Only January 1977 would fit that criteria. Winters have warmed considerably since 1977, much less 1940. While I can't say with any confidence that January 2025 would be colder or warmer than normal from this far out (no meaningful skill exists at that timeframe), I can state with reasonable confidence that January 2025 will not come close to what the map is showing.

Moreover, given the ENSO forecast and likely negative PDO, I suspect that the map shown on Tropical Tidbits will probably be closer to reality. But we'll see once we get closer to January.

Having said that, I don't think its prudent to speculate on the basis of any of the maps right now, aside from stating that the kind of extreme cold shown on the WB map is not likely to verify.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

It’s strange. Out of the 10 listed day 8 analogs, 8 of the 10 are from El Niño late August or Septembers: 3 from 2009, 2 from 2006, 1 from 1987, 1 from 1972, and 1 from 1953. The only 2 not Nino are from 2003 and 1981, both neutral. So, no dates from La Nina are listed!

 Is this significant or is it just a not unusual short period that goes against the grain and will go back to La Niña soon?

It's funny that this is happening just as the SOI goes solidly positive for the first time in 18 months.. I'm convinced that there is some kind of "take" on weather, for example: If the stock market has up indicators, everyone buys it up and drops its price lower. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

 While I can't say with any confidence that January 2025 would be colder or warmer than normal from this far out (no meaningful skill exists at that timeframe)

You really think so? Just using global warming or persistence, there is a 3/4 - 4/5 chance that January '25 will be warmer than average.. 

There exists some skill in ENSO, the PDO, and even S. Hemisphere conditions over their Winter rolled forward.. not super high predictability, but you can definitely manage some skill. I think the signs for the hurricane season drying up were there when the cap was not breaking for anything in the East in the Spring and Early Summer. 9 NS/yr for 100 years is also quite a datapoint, so sometimes the longer term average comes back to prevail. 

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You really think so? Just using global warming, there is a 3/4 - 4/5 chance that January '25 will be warmer than average.. 

There exists some skill in ENSO, the PDO, and even S. Hemisphere conditions over their Winter rolled forward.. not super high predictability, but you can definitely manage some skill. I think the signs for the hurricane season drying up were there when the cap was not breaking for anything in the East in the Spring and Early Summer. 9 NS/yr for 100 years is also quite a datapoint, so sometimes the longer term average comes back to prevail. 

When I mention lack of skill, I am referring to forecasting for two specific locations (Raleigh and Richmond) for a specific month. I do think the odds favor a warmer than normal winter in much of the East given the likely state of ENSO, PDO, and long-term warming, etc. Aside from New England, I also lean toward below normal snowfall. New England may do better than it has during the last two winters. A lot can still change, but that's my early thinking.

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

To be quite honest I just had a conversation about this last night. Quite weird to say the least especially going through a phase 1-2-3 MJO and not getting a single storm to pop in the Atlantic? Yet the EPAC and WPAC tossing out storms. There really does seem to be some strong disconnect happening and it really could be these marine heatwaves bluewave has been mentioning throwing things off.

 

I think I would laugh so hard if this happened because I know seasonal forecasting is extremely tough let alone doing past 5 day forecasts. I like the confidence folks have on here but we really need to know things will not go as planned.

The competing marine heatwaves angle may be  part of the equation. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the only other recent time this happened was in 2022. Now that the models are forecasting the tropics to become more active in early September something similar happened after a quiet August in 2022. We don’t know yet whether September will manifest in a similar way to 2022, but the record warmth closer to the Gulf is concerning for any storms that can get in there.

So far the models are not showing any major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin from August 20th through September 1st. This isn’t a typical occurrence for heading into a La Niña winter. The only other years this happened since 1995 were in 2022 and 2000. While the sample size is very small to draw from, 2022 had a very active September with hurricanes Danielle and Earl reaching cat 1 and cat 2 status. The big stories that month were Fiona going Cat 4 and Ian Cat 5. 
 

La Niña years since 1995 major hurricanes August 20th September 1st

2022….none

2021….Ida….Cat 4…..Larry Cat 3

2020…Laura Cat 4

2017….Harvey Cat 4…Irma Cat 5

2016….Gaston Cat 3

2011….Irene Cat 3

2010…Danielle Cat 4….Earl Cat 4

2008….Gaston Cat 4

2007…..Dean….Cat 5

2005…..Katrina Cat 5

2000…..none

1999…..Brett Cat 4….Cindy Cat 4

1998…..Bonnie Cat 3

1995…..Louis Cat 4

[40/70 Benchmark]

2022 is a very good analog...been saying that all summer.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2022 is a very good analog...been saying that all summer.

I usually root for your forecasts, but I  hope that one backfires on you. Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I usually root for your forecasts, but I  hope that one backfires on you. Lol

I don't think the west coast troughing will be as extreme.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I usually root for your forecasts, but I  hope that one backfires on you. Lol

I never really liked the 2022 analog for this year. For one, we don't have a carry over la nina [and one the MEI had as a super la nina] from last season (which dissipated as the season went on). Secondly, the subsurface was warm in 2022, which is the complete opposite of what we have now.

I think 2007-08 is the best analog, but the two biggest questions are (1) will the la nina develop, and (2) if it does, will it be an east-based la nina? If the answer to 1 is no, then a blend of 92-93 and 93-94 might come into play. (Pinatubo really skewed 92-93, especially the summer of 92.) Here is the  92-93 and 93-94 blend:

 

If both 1 and 2 are yes, then we might look into years like 2017-18 and 2021-22. If 1 is yes and 2 is no, then I think the 2007-08 analog is probably the best with what we have to work with, though you could use years like 1998-99 or 2016-17.

2022-23 just doesn't work with the setup we have right now. Maybe for 2025-26 if we do end up getting a la nina that peaks in the summer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I never really liked the 2022 analog for this year. For one, we don't have a carry over la nina [and one the MEI had as a super la nina] from last season (which dissipated as the season went on). Secondly, the subsurface was warm in 2022, which is the complete opposite of what we have now.

I think 2007-08 is the best analog, but the two biggest questions are (1) will the la nina develop, and (2) if it does, will it be an east-based la nina? If the answer to 1 is no, then a blend of 92-93 and 93-94 might come into play. (Pinatubo really skewed 92-93, especially the summer of 92.) Here is the  92-93 and 93-94 blend:

 

If both 1 and 2 are yes, then we might look into years like 2017-18 and 2021-22. If 1 is yes and 2 is no, then I think the 2007-08 analog is probably the best with what we have to work with, though you could use years like 1998-99 or 2016-17.

2022-23 just doesn't work with the setup we have right now. Maybe for 2025-26 if we do end up getting a la nina that peaks in the summer.

There is a flaw with any analog because they aren't replica seasons...they are analog seasons. 2007 was already well into La Nina territory per ONI and the MEI during winter of 2022-2023 wasn't much higher than it is now...the extra tropical Pacific is very similar. The QBO state and position near solar Max also render it a pretty good polar analog.

Both seasons are good analogs.

Good luck with that Aleutian trough....let me know how that works out.

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I never really liked the 2022 analog for this year. For one, we don't have a carry over la nina [and one the MEI had as a super la nina] from last season (which dissipated as the season went on). Secondly, the subsurface was warm in 2022, which is the complete opposite of what we have now.

I think 2007-08 is the best analog, but the two biggest questions are (1) will the la nina develop, and (2) if it does, will it be an east-based la nina? If the answer to 1 is no, then a blend of 92-93 and 93-94 might come into play. (Pinatubo really skewed 92-93, especially the summer of 92.) Here is the  92-93 and 93-94 blend:

 

If both 1 and 2 are yes, then we might look into years like 2017-18 and 2021-22. If 1 is yes and 2 is no, then I think the 2007-08 analog is probably the best with what we have to work with, though you could use years like 1998-99 or 2016-17.

2022-23 just doesn't work with the setup we have right now. Maybe for 2025-26 if we do end up getting a la nina that peaks in the summer.

Sadly, 07/08 isn't much better than 22/23 imby and would go down as an F instead of F-.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We are not getting a Pacific as favorable as 2017-2018....zero chance. Nor will there be as much blocking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Sadly, 07/08 isn't much better than 22/23 imby and would go down as an F instead of F-.

See, this is why I think New England has a shot to do well....2022-2023 would have been pretty good with anything less than record low western CONUS heights, which 2007-2008 is a wonderful illustration of.

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

See, this is why I think New England has a shot to do well....2022-2023 would have been pretty good with anything less than record low western CONUS heights, which 2007-2008 is a wonderful illustration of.

Oh, I'd love to be in your location. Only thing that will save me is my interior location and 600' asl. That said, 07/08 still stunk here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@PhiEaglesfan712Your thought process is very similar to mine about 3 years ago....you know your stuff, but your thought process surrounding analogs is a bit too reductive and all or nothing. You need to assume a more nuanced approach to analogs and instead of looking to entirely dispell of endorse a particular season, look for the elements that provide value as an analog and those that do not. This is especilly important when we have a basin-wide La Nina such as this one, as these type of events often have mixed characteristics of west and east based events. For instance, I used to only look at seasons that we basin-wide and weak given that is the expectation for this La Nina, but there are just too many variables to be that honed in as far as analog criteria goes. There maybe La Nina seasons in other designations that are far better exatra tropical Pacific matches and or solar matches, for instance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Oh, I'd love to be in your location. Only thing that will save me is my interior location and 600' asleep. That said, 07/08 still stunk here.

If I had your eleveation, then I'd really be sitting pretty. I'm only about 150' here on the interior coastal plane near the MA/NH border.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Oh, I'd love to be in your location. Only thing that will save me is my interior location and 600' asleep. That said, 07/08 still stunk here.

Yeah, 07/08 stunk in terms of snowfall in the PHL area. The only saving grace was the winter wasn't overly warm. We even carved out a below average temperature November and a snowfall in early December. The weaker back half of the la nina (08/09) was better. At least we got a cold October-January, a November snowfall, and two 8-in snowstorms (on February 4 and March 1-2) when the temperatures moderated out. I guess that's how 2022-23 could have looked like if things were in place better.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The competing marine heatwaves angle may be  part of the equation. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the only other recent time this happened was in 2022. Now that the models are forecasting the tropics to become more active in early September something similar happened after a quiet August in 2022. We don’t know yet whether September will manifest in a similar way to 2022, but the record warmth closer to the Gulf is concerning for any storms that can get in there.

So far the models are not showing any major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin from August 20th through September 1st. This isn’t a typical occurrence for heading into a La Niña winter. The only other years this happened since 1995 were in 2022 and 2000. While the sample size is very small to draw from, 2022 had a very active September with hurricanes Danielle and Earl reaching cat 1 and cat 2 status. The big stories that month were Fiona going Cat 4 and Ian Cat 5. 
 

La Niña years since 1995 major hurricanes August 20th September 1st

2022….none

2021….Ida….Cat 4…..Larry Cat 3

2020…Laura Cat 4

2017….Harvey Cat 4…Irma Cat 5

2016….Gaston Cat 3

2011….Irene Cat 3

2010…Danielle Cat 4….Earl Cat 4

2008….Gaston Cat 4

2007…..Dean….Cat 5

2005…..Katrina Cat 5

2000…..none

1999…..Brett Cat 4….Cindy Cat 4

1998…..Bonnie Cat 3

1995…..Louis Cat 4

The ante may be going way up within just a few days after Sept 1 as you alluded to based on 0Z/6Z guidance. A MH is being shown as a legit possibility. So, whereas there won’t be one 8/20-9/1, there may be one by, say, 9/4. How would that affect your analysis? Neither 2000 nor 2022 had their 2nd MH of the season til 9/20+.

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

See, this is why I think New England has a shot to do well....2022-2023 would have been pretty good with anything less than record low western CONUS heights, which 2007-2008 is a wonderful illustration of.

Agree for the most part but I’m not sure we see strong NAO/AO blocking like we did in December ‘22. The more I look at it, the more hostile I think the NAO/NAM are going to be. As far as the other “analogs” going around twitter (i.e. ‘17-‘18 ‘95-‘96 ‘83-‘84 ‘10-‘11 ‘13-‘14 ‘20-‘21) completely asinine and nothing more than wishcasting