40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 43 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I noticed that this morning too. The upwelling has not been as impressive as I thought it would given the tropical instability waves we were seeing. Once we get into next week, it’s really “put up or shut up” time for this Niña. I’m starting to think this ends up either as a central-based cold-neutral or a borderline very weak Niña (barely). Either way, a cold-neutral winter is a certainty, but I’m starting to doubt a trimonthly weak Niña event. That said, the strong atmospheric Niña background state/MJO/-PDO isn’t going anywhere and the -IOD is only going to enhance that I highly doubt it doesn't reach weak Nina status, but we'll see...guidance has been trending that way. Good news is that the cool ENSO Walker Cell should not be as potent as it was during the 2022-2023 season, so if we get a similar set up, the east coast could cash in a bit more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I highly doubt it doesn't reach weak Nina status, but we'll see...guidance has been trending that way. Good news is that the cool ENSO Walker Cell should not be as potent as it was during the 2022-2023 season, so if we get a similar set up, the east coast could cash in a bit more. Yea, we’ll see, but I think a weaker cold-neutral Walker cell will allow solar to have even more of an influence (01-02). Just posted about it, but there’s a decent chance that this solar max may end up even stronger than that one was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 17 hours ago, GaWx said: On what are you basing it taking at least 1-2 months for blocking pattern to come after a major SSW? Per @Stormchaserchuck1 it takes less time especially later in the season. Nov 1-15: +45 days Nov 15-30: +40 days Dec 1-15: +35 days Dec 15-30: +30 days Jan 1-15: +25 days Jan 15-30: +25 days Feb 1-15: +20 days Feb 15-28: +20 days March 1-15: +15 days March 15-30: +15 days 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 23 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yea, we’ll see, but I think a weaker cold-neutral Walker cell will allow solar to have even more of an influence (01-02). Just posted about it, but there’s a decent chance that this solar max may end up even stronger than that one was I think there was more to the meager 2001 season than just the high solar...1970 was also high solar, so it's not an automatic "game over ". A vortex stationed over AK in the seasonal mean is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 I think 2013 was high solar, as well...obviously the Pacific was much different, but underscores the point that you can't become over reliant on any one indicator with respect to seasonal forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 8 hours ago, bluewave said: The reason the blocking in December 22 and March 23 didn’t work was due to it linking up with the Southeast Ridge. In the 50s to early 70s when we had much cooler SSTs along the East Coast a deep -PNA trough out West also had a trough near the East instead of Southeast Ridge. These days we need to establish a +PNA first to keep the Southeast Ridge in check for -NAO -AO intervals. Remember the strong +PNA in December into January 20-21 worked in concert with the -AO keeping the trough near the East Coast. But even the +PNA -AO allowed a more south based blocking than usual with the record SSTs east of New England so BGM got the 40” record snowfall instead of NYC to Boston. The low was too tucked in near ACY for the coast to jackpot. But due to the early season +PNA trough lingering near the East Coast when the PNA turned negative in late January, it was the only time in the 2020s that the coast had over 12” around NYC with a -PNA. The snowy January 2022 was all on the -EPO+PNA MJO 8 pattern even though the AO was more positive. But this favored the coast on Long Island over areas just west of NYC which didn’t do as well. Didn't the Southeast Ridge finally break around mid-April 2023? If I remember correctly, places as south as Georgia got frost/freeze as late as May 18, which hurt the peaches crop that year. Regarding 2020-21 and 2021-22, I believe that perhaps the biggest difference is that the former was a central based la nina, while the latter was an east based one. I think east based la ninas favor the eastern (coastal) areas. ACY had more snow in 2017-18 and 2021-22 (years that were east based la ninas), and didn't do as well as in the central-based 2020-21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Didn't the Southeast Ridge finally break around mid-April 2023? If I remember correctly, places as south as Georgia got frost/freeze as late as May 18, which hurt the peaches crop that year. You’re off on the month with the freezes that absolutely devastated the 2023 GA peach crop. It was March, not May. This was the mid-March cold snap that resulted about a month after the 2/16/23 major SSWE. After “one of the warmest Februarys on record for Georgia,” Knox said, those varieties came out of dormancy early and prepared to bloom just in time for mercilessly freezing weather in March. https://www.gpb.org/news/2023/07/05/dire-situation-what-caused-georgias-catastrophic-peach-crop-failure Most of GA’s peaches are grown just SW of Macon. Macon had freezes on 3/15, 16, 20, and 21. Those were the last freezes of the season: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ffc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 After the big ACE jump with Beryl earlier in the season the ACE will be closer to average near the start of September. https://kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: After the big ACE jump with Beryl earlier in the season the ACE will be closer to average near the start of September. https://kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/index.html You really need to change your name from Bluewave to Dreamcrusher lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You really need to change your name from Bluewave to Dreamcrusher lol Idk, when you look at previous seasons that started this high, they all went on to finish AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Idk, when you look at previous seasons that started this high, they all went on to finish AN. I don't think there is any question it finishes above normal...just a matter of whether it makes a run at 200 or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think 2013 was high solar, as well...obviously the Pacific was much different, but underscores the point that you can't become over reliant on any one indicator with respect to seasonal forecasting. If it was only the solar max/geomag and the *potential* cold-neutral Niña fail ENSO, I’d agree, however, the other major factors all match….strong -PDO, -PMM, -IOD, strong atmospheric Niña background state, MJO 4-6, +QBO, +AMO (but was not nearly as strong back then), non volcanic (although we had the major eruptions back in April, not enough to create a classic volcanic stratosphere but may possibly still augment some of the other stratosphere factors this year?). The differences; AGW wasn’t anywhere near what it is now, arctic sea ice wasn’t record low and the marine heatwaves in the PAC and the Atlantic weren’t there. I see more similarities than differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If it was only the solar max/geomag and the *potential* cold-neutral Niña fail ENSO, I’d agree, however, the other major factors all match….strong -PDO, -PMM, -IOD, strong atmospheric Niña background state, MJO 4-6, +QBO, +AMO (but was not nearly as strong back then), non volcanic (although we had the major eruptions back in April, not enough to create a classic volcanic stratosphere but may possibly still augment some of the other stratosphere factors this year?). The differences; AGW wasn’t anywhere near what it is now, arctic sea ice wasn’t record low and the marine heatwaves in the PAC and the Atlantic weren’t there. I see more similarities than differences No one in their right mind is going to argue that it looks good on paper.....I'm just saying to keep an open mind. Raindance was also speculating that the AMO maybe flipping, so be careful about assuming that "++AMO"..... One you make up your mind, focus on ways things can "go wrong".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 I def. see some pathways to redemption for the NE...admittedly a taller task for the Mid Atl, unless they hit the synoptic powerball with a big dog. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: No one in their right mind is going to argue that it looks good on paper.....I'm just saying to keep an open mind. Raindance was also speculating that the AMO maybe flipping, so be careful about assuming that "++AMO"..... It’s nowhere near becoming -AMO right now, not even close. We won’t know if the AMO is truly flipping until next summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think there was more to the meager 2001 season than just the high solar...1970 was also high solar, so it's not an automatic "game over ". A vortex stationed over AK in the seasonal mean is. Climate has changed dramatically since 2001. We've become way too over reliant on analogs when we're a moving target climate wise. What was looking like a hyperactive hurricane season is starting to flop. We had a raging +NAO that delivered unusually cool weather in NW Europe. Blocking patterns in winter no longer produce the same outcomes either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 25 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Idk, when you look at previous seasons that started this high, they all went on to finish AN. It will take quite the historic Sept-Nov to live up there some of the 230+ ACE forecasts that were put out back in the spring and early summer (i.e. JB) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Just now, snowman19 said: It’s nowhere near becoming -AMO right now, not even close. We won’t know if the AMO is truly flipping until next summer Not what I said....."flipping" implies that the +AMO period has peaked and is beginning to reverse. Once you have your mind made up, I think it distorts your interpretation of what people are trying to say. Its something everyone needs to be mindful of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 The wild card for ACE this season may be the upper atmosphere warming faster than the surface. So we’ll have to see what happens once we reach the peak of the season in September. This may be why most of the other developing La Niña summers since 1995 had major hurricanes between August 20th and 31st without any this year. Perhaps if the upper atmosphere begins to cool off faster we’ll see an uptick in activity during the coming weeks. The record SSTs in the Gulf are concerning for any waves that can find a way in there since they could rapidly intensity. I know we like to focus on total ACE for judging a season but in actuality it’s mostly about landfall impacts which are usually a big unknown until we reach the heart of the season. So as always it only takes one hitting a populated area to have a big season regardless of ACE or total storm counts. La Niña years since 1995 major hurricanes August 20th September 1st 2022….none 2021….Ida….Cat 4…..Larry Cat 3 2020…Laura Cat 4 2017….Harvey Cat 4…Irma Cat 5 2016….Gaston Cat 3 2011….Irene Cat 3 2010…Danielle Cat 4….Earl Cat 4 2008….Gaston Cat 4 2007…..Dean….Cat 5 2005…..Katrina Cat 5 2000…..none 1999…..Brett Cat 4….Cindy Cat 4 1998…..Bonnie Cat 3 1995…..Louis Cat 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think there is any question it finishes above normal...just a matter of whether it makes a run at 200 or not... lol, we're not coming anywhere close to 200 ACE. The fact that we're in a lull (again) in what is supposed to be the heart of hurricane season should make it pretty apparent. I think we're going to have a near normal number of named storms a la 1998/2007/2016. The only thing in question is whether the ACE total is going to be closer to the high end (1998) or low end (2007), or in the middle (2016). The fact that the 3 seasons (which are fairly similar imho) vary wildly in ACE shows its limitations, and why I don't put a lot of stock into that measure. I use the named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes as benchmarks/measuring sticks. So far this season, we've been on the low end on those measures at all points in the season compared to the last 10 years. And unlike this season, 1998, 2007, and 2016 all had activity in the heart of the season. 14 or 15 seems like the right number of storms we are going to finish with this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if it is less. But no way are we going past 17, and the ACE won't pass the 1998 number. It will end somewhere around the 2016 number, maybe less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 9 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: lol, we're not coming anywhere close to 200 ACE. The fact that we're in a lull (again) in what is supposed to be the heart of hurricane season should make it pretty apparent. I think we're going to have a near normal number of named storms a la 1998/2007/2016. The only thing in question is whether the ACE total is going to be closer to the high end (1998) or low end (2007), or in the middle (2016). The fact that the 3 seasons (which are fairly similar imho) vary wildly in ACE shows its limitations, and why I don't put a lot of stock into that measure. I use the named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes as benchmarks/measuring sticks. So far this season, we've been on the low end on those measures at all points in the season compared to the last 10 years. And unlike this season, 1998, 2007, and 2016 all had activity in the heart of the season. 14 or 15 seems like the right number of storms we are going to finish with this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if it is less. But no way are we going past 17, and the ACE won't pass the 1998 number. It will end somewhere around the 2016 number, maybe less. I think you underestimate how much a single storm can raise the value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 56 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If it was only the solar max/geomag and the *potential* cold-neutral Niña fail ENSO, I’d agree, however, the other major factors all match….strong -PDO, -PMM, -IOD, strong atmospheric Niña background state, MJO 4-6, +QBO, +AMO (but was not nearly as strong back then), non volcanic (although we had the major eruptions back in April, not enough to create a classic volcanic stratosphere but may possibly still augment some of the other stratosphere factors this year?). The differences; AGW wasn’t anywhere near what it is now, arctic sea ice wasn’t record low and the marine heatwaves in the PAC and the Atlantic weren’t there. I see more similarities than differences @Stormchaserchuck1 has noted many times that the MJO is very hard to predict long-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: @Stormchaserchuck1 has noted many times that the MJO is very hard to predict long-term. The MJO has been stuck in 4-6 for years. Why? That’s where the warmest SSTs are…in those phases. The 31C isotherm is right there. The atmosphere will always put the convection/forcing right over the warmest SSTs. The -IOD further supports convection in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The MJO has been stuck in 4-6 for years. Why? That’s where the warmest SSTs are…in those phases. The 31C isotherm is right there. The atmosphere will always put the convection/forcing right over the warmest SSTs. The -IOD further supports convection in that area I think you need to wait about another month to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I highly doubt it doesn't reach weak Nina status, but we'll see...guidance has been trending that way. Good news is that the cool ENSO Walker Cell should not be as potent as it was during the 2022-2023 season, so if we get a similar set up, the east coast could cash in a bit more. For the east coast to cash in, I think east-based la nina setup is the best scenario. ACY really outperformed in years like 2017-18 and 2021-22. I think a central-based la nina is going to favor west of PHL/I-95 like 2020-21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 4 hours ago, bluewave said: After the big ACE jump with Beryl earlier in the season the ACE will be closer to average near the start of September. https://kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/index.html 1. Agreed it will very likely be closer to avg on Sept 1. However, the 3 main 0Z ensembles as well as 6Z GEFS agree that the highest concentration of members with a TCG is in the MDR 45-60W between 8/31 and 9/3. Overall concentration looks a bit higher vs most earlier runs. This is pretty close to when/where 23 AI-Euro runs in a row had TCG as well as TCGs on recent ICON runs. Chances seem pretty good for the next TCG during the first few days of Sept. even though the AI-Euro ironically abandoned its near Leeward Island TCG two days ago. So, we’ll see. If there is a TCG then when considering the near record warmth in many parts of the W basin, that would have the potential to be a big ACE producer. Unfortunately, it could threaten the CONUS. I’ve been enjoying the lowered stress resulting from this recent quiet. The party may be over. We’ll see. 2. I believe that this season will end up backloaded as well as concentrated in the W part of the basin due to less favorable conditions in the E basin due to a variety of reasons, some unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 So the early calls are a weak La Nina thats going to act like a strong one? Some of this stuff is so confusing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: So the early calls are a weak La Nina thats going to act like a strong one? Some of this stuff is so confusing lol. I’m starting to doubt that we ever see an official (trimonthly) La Niña event now. I know Raindance is too. A central based cold-neutral event is beginning to look more likely. We are starting to run out of time. A solid Niña atmospheric background state is a very good bet though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: So the early calls are a weak La Nina thats going to act like a strong one? Some of this stuff is so confusing lol. I have a feeling the la nina is going to take a 2021-22 trajectory. The la nina is going to be weak most of the fall/winter, but turns moderate in the spring, and maybe even strong in the summer (and holds on through the 2025-26 season). The only thing I don't know is if the la nina takes an east-based turn. If it does, then this upcoming winter should resemble 2021-22. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m starting to doubt that we ever see an official (trimonthly) La Niña event now. I know Raindance is too. A central based cold-neutral event is beginning to look more likely. We are starting to run out of time. A solid Niña atmospheric background state is a very good bet though 9 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: I have a feeling the la nina is going to take a 2021-22 trajectory. The la nina is going to be weak most of the fall/winter, but turns moderate in the spring, and maybe even strong in the summer (and holds on through the 2025-26 season). The only thing I don't know is if the la nina takes an east-based turn. If it does, then this upcoming winter should resemble 2021-22. Either scenario is fine by me. Really pulling for a good December here. Those are very common in Ninas and we are overdue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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