2024-2025 La Nina

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

What do you guys think about this post from Joe Daleo regarding QBO and solar max?

The QBO influences what that means in the winter for solar max and solar min years. At solar max the west QBO favors lower than normal heights in low latitudes and higher heights in higher latitudes - with STRATWARM events (bottom right).

 

If the La Nina persists we should expect the the opposite pattern (bottom right below). Does that imply wild swings?

If La Nina fades, the opposite bottom right in the 4 pattern image would be more favored/more dominant.

This is really interesting… it seems for a solar max, we would prefer a westerly QBO based on that map. 

What was the source of this map, and what data did they use? I want to verify this myself. If you can’t get the source, no worries - I can try to use publicly available data from NOAA.

[snowman19]

43 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This is really interesting… it seems for a solar max, we would prefer a westerly QBO based on that map. 

What was the source of this map, and what data did they use? I want to verify this myself. If you can’t get the source, no worries - I can try to use publicly available data from NOAA.

The source is Joe D’Aleo/Weatherbell. I have never heard this theory before. All the research I’ve ever seen points to La Niña/high solar/+QBO being hostile 

[Terpeast]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The source is Joe D’Aleo/Weatherbell. I have never heard this theory before. All the research I’ve ever seen points to La Niña/high solar/+QBO being hostile 

The qbo and solar connection to our weather has always looked very weak to me. Until I dive into the data and run my own analyses, I’m open to the possibility of it being not as clear cut as you make it out to be.

[George001]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Obviously the Pacific is more important, so it could still be very mild, regardless of the NAO.

That’s where I’m at, +NAO/la Nina combo isn’t ideal, but it’s not a death sentence. I’m more concerned about avoiding MJO 4-6 for at least half of the winter. Even a -NAO isn’t guaranteed snow if the pacific doesn’t cooperate. Can’t snow without sufficient cold air.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, roardog said:

What do you guys think about this post from Joe Daleo regarding QBO and solar max?

The QBO influences what that means in the winter for solar max and solar min years. At solar max the west QBO favors lower than normal heights in low latitudes and higher heights in higher latitudes - with STRATWARM events (bottom right).

 

If the La Nina persists we should expect the the opposite pattern (bottom right below). Does that imply wild swings?

If La Nina fades, the opposite bottom right in the 4 pattern image would be more favored/more dominant.

Wild swings with the final cumulative outcome being above avg precip/snow would be a pretty typical La Nina Michigan winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The source is Joe D’Aleo/Weatherbell. I have never heard this theory before. All the research I’ve ever seen points to La Niña/high solar/+QBO being hostile 

La Nina +QBO and active solar favors late blocking, which is why I predicted March 2023 well, despite it not working out for the coast.

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, roardog said:

What do you guys think about this post from Joe Daleo regarding QBO and solar max?

The QBO influences what that means in the winter for solar max and solar min years. At solar max the west QBO favors lower than normal heights in low latitudes and higher heights in higher latitudes - with STRATWARM events (bottom right).

 

If the La Nina persists we should expect the the opposite pattern (bottom right below). Does that imply wild swings?

If La Nina fades, the opposite bottom right in the 4 pattern image would be more favored/more dominant.

 

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The source is Joe D’Aleo/Weatherbell. I have never heard this theory before. All the research I’ve ever seen points to La Niña/high solar/+QBO being hostile 

 

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

The qbo and solar connection to our weather has always looked very weak to me. Until I dive into the data and run my own analyses, I’m open to the possibility of it being not as clear cut as you make it out to be.

 It’s crucial what years Joe is including. I see that his high solar/W map has a BN SE….hmm. Since 1948 there are only two Niña/W winters with high solar (though not necessarily right at max): 99-00 (Roni -1.7)(NN SE) and 22-3 (Roni -0.8)(warm SE). Also, both had strong -PDO. Thus, these are the 2 best analogs for QBO/solar. But Joe undoubtedly included others in his set because those two alone averaged mild in SE.

 The other high solar/W have these Roni’s/PDO:

57-8: +2.0/+  terrible analog/very cold SE

59-60: 0/+  poor/cool SE

78-9: +0.2/mod -   fair at best/cool SE

80-1: 0/+ poor/cool SE

90-1: +0.6/strong -   fair at best/warm SE

01-02: -0.2/strong -  pretty good/mild SE

13-14: -0.5/mod -  pretty good/cool SE

 So, best analogs: 1999-0, 2022-3

Next best analogs: 2001-2, 2013-4

 No telling what of these Joe included. He may have included ~all of these to come up with his high solar/W, which if so would imho be misleading for 2024-5 forecasting. With the cool El Ninoish look in the SE on his map, I’m suspecting he’s also including some or all of 57-8, 59-60, 78-9, and 13-4. The only of those I’d consider a decent analog is 13-4. 
 

@40/70 Benchmark

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 

 

 It’s crucial what years Joe is including. I see that his high solar/W map has a BN SE….hmm. Since 1948 there are only two Niña/W winters with high solar (though not necessarily right at max): 99-00 (Roni -1.7)(NN SE) and 22-3 (Roni -0.8)(warm SE). Also, both had strong -PDO. Thus, these are the 2 best analogs for QBO/solar. But Joe undoubtedly included others in his set because those two alone averaged mild in SE.

 The other high solar/W have these Roni’s/PDO:

57-8: +2.0/+  terrible analog/very cold SE

59-60: 0/+  poor/cool SE

78-9: +0.2/mod -   fair at best/cool SE

80-1: 0/+ poor/cool SE

90-1: +0.6/strong -   fair at best/warm SE

01-02: -0.2/strong -  pretty good/mild SE

13-14: -0.5/mod -  pretty good/cool SE

 So, best analogs: 1999-0, 2022-3

Next best analogs: 2001-2, 2013-4

 No telling what of these Joe included. He may have included ~all of these to come up with his high solar/W, which if so would imho be misleading for 2024-5 forecasting. With the cool El Ninoish look in the SE on his map, I’m suspecting he’s also including some or all of 57-8, 59-60, 78-9, and 13-4. The only of those I’d consider a decent analog is 13-4. 
 

@40/70 Benchmark

1999 and 2022 are two of the best analogs IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I made it pretty clear here why solar max/W QBO/cool ENSO is a pretty good bet for late blocking.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-analysis-of-polar-domain.html

Again, that does NOT necessarily mean big snow and cold to the east coast..as we saw in March 2023.

This not the worst composite for blocking...descending solar is.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I made it pretty clear here why solar max/W QBO/cool ENSO is a pretty good bet for late blocking.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-analysis-of-polar-domain.html

Again, that does NOT necessarily mean big snow and cold to the east coast..as we saw in March 2023.

This not the worst composite for blocking...descending solar is.

The reason why it didn't work in 2023 is because the blocking pattern came way too late. It usually takes at least a month or two to see the full effects of it. Had the blocking been in place in November or December, then the full effects of the pattern would have happened in the heart of winter, and there would have been big snow and cold. As it was, we saw the full effects of the blocking in May and June, and of course, that was way too late for snow.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The reason why it didn't work in 2023 is because the blocking pattern came way too late. It usually takes at least a month or two to see the full effects of it. Had the blocking been in place in November or December, then the full effects of the pattern would have happened in the heart of winter, and there would have been big snow and cold. As it was, we saw the full effects of the blocking in May and June, and of course, that was way too late for snow.

 On what are you basing it taking at least 1-2 months for blocking pattern to come after a major SSW? Per @Stormchaserchuck1 it takes less time especially later in the season.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I made it pretty clear here why solar max/W QBO/cool ENSO is a pretty good bet for late blocking.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-analysis-of-polar-domain.html

Again, that does NOT necessarily mean big snow and cold to the east coast..as we saw in March 2023.

This not the worst composite for blocking...descending solar is.

Regarding high solar/W for all ENSO, there are 9 winters since 1948 as I listed earlier today. Of those nine, seven had at least one major SSW and two of those seven had two:

57-8: 1/31

59-60: 1/17

78-9: 2/22

80-1: 2/6 and 3/4

90-1: none listed

99-00: 3/20

01-02: 12/31 and 2/18

13-14: none listed

22-23: 2/16

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The reason why it didn't work in 2023 is because the blocking pattern came way too late. It usually takes at least a month or two to see the full effects of it. Had the blocking been in place in November or December, then the full effects of the pattern would have happened in the heart of winter, and there would have been big snow and cold. As it was, we saw the full effects of the blocking in May and June, and of course, that was way too late for snow.

It can take up to a month..certainly not 2.

It didn't come too late...it took place in early March. It didn't work out because of the huge RNA that occurred simultaneously. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It can take up to a month..certainly not 2.

It didn't come too late...it took place in early March. It didn't work out because of the huge RNA that occurred simultaneously. 

That is still too late for anything substantial to happen. If we were going to get a backloaded winter, January or early February at the latest is when the change needed to happen. A change in March is going to affect the spring into early summer, and that is exactly what happened. The cold finally came the last week of April, and didn't relent until late June.

But the summer was clearly tipping its hand at being on the cool end with that change in March and the transition to el nino. It was the coldest June since 1985 and summer (JJA) since 2009.

[GaWx]

29 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That is still too late for anything substantial to happen. If we were going to get a backloaded winter, January or early February at the latest is when the change needed to happen. A change in March is going to affect the spring into early summer, and that is exactly what happened. The cold finally came the last week of April, and didn't relent until late June.

But the summer was clearly tipping its hand at being on the cool end with that change in March and the transition to el nino. It was the coldest June since 1985 and summer (JJA) since 2009.

The SE had one notably cold week in early to mid-March largely attributed to the -NAO/-AO caused by the 2/16/23 major SSW. The -NAO started 2/26 and the -AO started 3/4. The cold took its sweet time to get here due to the stubborn RNA and was also shortlived. But it still got here within 3 weeks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That is still too late for anything substantial to happen. If we were going to get a backloaded winter, January or early February at the latest is when the change needed to happen. A change in March is going to affect the spring into early summer, and that is exactly what happened. The cold finally came the last week of April, and didn't relent until late June.

But the summer was clearly tipping its hand at being on the cool end with that change in March and the transition to el nino. It was the coldest June since 1985 and summer (JJA) since 2009.

Early March is absolutely not too late for the northeast.

[George001]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Early March is absolutely not too late for the northeast.

Yeah March is a winter month in New England, the blocking started in early March in 2018 too. In mid March we had a massive blizzard.

[snowman19]

@GaWx The strength of the +QBO is important too. DT has always argued that if a QBO gets strongly positive it directly strengthens and adds velocity to the PAC jet. We saw a few examples of this, most recently in the 16-17 winter when the PAC jet was roaring. DT warned that it was going to happen and he ended up being spot on 

DT: https://www.facebook.com/share/m9tFjr63aZJ2aebL/?mibextid=WC7FNe

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@GaWx The strength of the +QBO is important too. DT has always argued that if a QBO gets strongly positive it directly strengthens and adds velocity to the PAC jet. We saw a few examples of this, most recently in the 16-17 winter when the PAC jet was roaring. DT warned that it was going to happen and he ended up being spot on 

DT: https://www.facebook.com/share/m9tFjr63aZJ2aebL/?mibextid=WC7FNe

 Hey snowman, FYI, I couldn’t see what’s at your Facebook link. This may be because I don’t have a FB account. Are you able to copy and paste it?

[snowman19]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Hey snowman, FYI, I couldn’t see what’s at your Facebook link. This may be because I don’t have a FB account. Are you able to copy and paste it?

“The driving force behind  these severe weather outbreak is the enhanced or stronger than normal Pacific jet stream.  THAT  feature is being enhanced by the record setting extremely positive QBO.  As a result the jet stream velocities especially the mid and upper levels are enhanced.  As the Pacific jet drives these significant powerful weather systems into the West Coast...  They will move across the Plains the Midwest and towards  the East Coast over the next two weeks”

It’s looking likely that we see a strong +QBO this winter…

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Yeah March is a winter month in New England, the blocking started in early March in 2018 too. In mid March we had a massive blizzard.

The difference was the pattern favorable for cold was in place by November in 2017-18. This winter has been talked about ad nauseum in this forum. December and the first half of January had major cold, and I think there was a major snowstorm in early January, which especially impacted Atlantic City. (Actually, the first taste of major cold was on November 10.) February was the real outlier. March had 3-4 snowstorms here in the mid-Atlantic and the cold continued well into April, but it helped that the cold was there earlier in the season. We didn't really have any of that in 2023.

I wish the pattern was in place earlier. This map of May-August shows the potential that could have been there (if the blocking pattern was in November, imagine this in January-April instead - and much of the cold was in the first 2 months, which would have been January and February): 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The reason why it didn't work in 2023 is because the blocking pattern came way too late. It usually takes at least a month or two to see the full effects of it. Had the blocking been in place in November or December, then the full effects of the pattern would have happened in the heart of winter, and there would have been big snow and cold. As it was, we saw the full effects of the blocking in May and June, and of course, that was way too late for snow.

The reason the blocking in December 22 and March 23 didn’t work was due to it linking up with the Southeast Ridge. In the 50s to early 70s when we had much cooler SSTs along the East Coast a deep -PNA trough out West also had a trough near the East instead of Southeast Ridge. These days we need to establish a +PNA first to keep the Southeast Ridge in check for -NAO -AO intervals. Remember the strong +PNA in December into January 20-21 worked in concert with the -AO keeping the trough near the East Coast. But even the +PNA -AO allowed a more south based blocking than usual with the record SSTs east of New England so BGM got the 40” record snowfall instead of NYC to Boston. The low was too tucked in near ACY for the coast to jackpot. But due to the early season +PNA trough lingering near the East Coast when the PNA turned negative in late January, it was the only time in the 2020s that the coast had over 12” around NYC with a -PNA. The snowy January 2022 was all on the -EPO+PNA MJO 8 pattern even though the AO was more positive. But this favored the coast on Long Island over areas just west of NYC which didn’t do as well.

[raindancewx]

The subsurface data for 100-180W at 0-300m below the surface looks like it will be about the same or a touch warmer than July. A lot of the late developing La Ninas are still pretty weak in that zone but they are typically trending steadily down by now. The -0.80 reading for Apr/May doesn't seem like it is coming back anytime soon. We're likely around -0.5 again for the subsurface. April-May were consistently below -0.75.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

The subsurface data for 100-180W at 0-300m below the surface looks like it will be about the same or a touch warmer than July. A lot of the late developing La Ninas are still pretty weak in that zone but they are typically trending steadily down by now. The -0.80 reading for Apr/May doesn't seem like it is coming back anytime soon. We're likely around -0.5 again for the subsurface. April-May were consistently below -0.75.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

I noticed that this morning too. The upwelling has not been as impressive as I thought it would given the tropical instability waves we were seeing. Once we get into next week, it’s really “put up or shut up” time for this Niña. I’m starting to think this ends up either as a central-based cold-neutral or a borderline very weak Niña (barely). Either way, a cold-neutral winter is a certainty, but I’m starting to doubt a trimonthly weak Niña event. That said, the strong atmospheric Niña background state/MJO/-PDO isn’t going anywhere and the -IOD is only going to enhance that 

[snowman19]

@GaWx It’s starting to look like a good chance that this solar cycle ends up stronger than the 01-02 solar max of Cycle 23….
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I noticed that this morning too. The upwelling has not been as impressive as I thought it would given the tropical instability waves we were seeing. Once we get into next week, it’s really “put up or shut up” time for this Niña. I’m starting to think this ends up either as a central-based cold-neutral or a borderline very weak Niña (barely). Either way, a cold-neutral winter is a certainty, but I’m starting to doubt a trimonthly weak Niña event. That said, the strong atmospheric Niña background state/MJO/-PDO isn’t going anywhere and the -IOD is only going to enhance that 

I highly doubt it doesn't reach weak Nina status, but we'll see...guidance has been trending that way. Good news is that the cool ENSO Walker Cell should not be as potent as it was during the 2022-2023 season, so if we get a similar set up, the east coast could cash in a bit more.

 

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I highly doubt it doesn't reach weak Nina status, but we'll see...guidance has been trending that way. Good news is that the cool ENSO Walker Cell should not be as potent as it was during the 2022-2023 season, so if we get a similar set up, the east coast could cash in a bit more.

 

Yea, we’ll see, but I think a weaker cold-neutral Walker cell will allow solar to have even more of an influence (01-02). Just posted about it, but there’s a decent chance that this solar max may end up even stronger than that one was

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

 On what are you basing it taking at least 1-2 months for blocking pattern to come after a major SSW? Per @Stormchaserchuck1 it takes less time especially later in the season.

Nov 1-15: +45 days

Nov 15-30: +40 days

Dec 1-15: +35 days

Dec 15-30: +30 days

Jan 1-15: +25 days

Jan 15-30: +25 days

Feb 1-15: +20 days

Feb 15-28: +20 days

March 1-15: +15 days

March 15-30: +15 days

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, we’ll see, but I think a weaker cold-neutral Walker cell will allow solar to have even more of an influence (01-02). Just posted about it, but there’s a decent chance that this solar max may end up even stronger than that one was

I think there was more to the meager 2001 season than just the high solar...1970 was also high solar, so it's not an automatic "game over ". A vortex stationed over AK in the seasonal mean is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think 2013 was high solar, as well...obviously the Pacific was much different, but underscores the point that you can't become over reliant on any one indicator with respect to seasonal forecasting.