40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: I believe to have a significant climate effect it needs to be a tropical volcano that reaches the stratosphere with a VEI of “high-end” 5 or above. I defer to @Volcanic Winter Its too late to have an impact for the coming winter, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Even a very strong El Niño couldn’t flip the PDO, it actually got more strongly negative. With a La Niña developing, I very seriously doubt TC’s moving through are going to do anything but cause transient, temporary cooling then right back to the marine heatwave. We’ve seen this happen already. SSTs that anomalously warm aren’t just going away, it would take months of a constant assault. The North Pacific High just keeps rebuilding over and over, as long as that feedback cycle continues, the PDO is going to continue to be strongly negative. The PMM also failed to respond to the Nino, that was one of the reasons for the huge disconnect with the MEI last winter. We’ve also heard how many times now that the AMO is about to flip negative, when in fact it’s just gotten stronger positive. Kind of like how JB has been saying that arctic sea ice is going to increase lol It’s akin to the MJO….how many times in the last 5+ years have we seen failed attempt after failed attempt at phases 8-1-2? It just stays in phases 4-6….why? Because that’s where the warmest SSTs are. The 31C isotherm is right there. The atmosphere will always put the strongest convection/forcing where the warmest SSTs are despite what a climate model or even ENSO may say as we saw last winter. Now that the IOD is going negative along with a Niña, that just gives more support of the MJO in those phases On an unrelated note, I know you follow it, but it looks like the sunspot number for August is going to be over 230. Also appears that the QBO is going to see a rather large rise this month I think we may begin to see some chinks in the armor of the PAC cold phase following this La Nina, but I agree its not happening for this cold season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 So far the models are not showing any major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin from August 20th through September 1st. This isn’t a typical occurrence for heading into a La Niña winter. The only other years this happened since 1995 were in 2022 and 2000. While the sample size is very small to draw from, 2022 had a very active September with hurricanes Danielle and Earl reaching cat 1 and cat 2 status. The big stories that month were Fiona going Cat 4 and Ian Cat 5. La Niña years since 1995 major hurricanes August 20th September 1st 2022….none 2021….Ida….Cat 4…..Larry Cat 3 2020…Laura Cat 4 2017….Harvey Cat 4…Irma Cat 5 2016….Gaston Cat 3 2011….Irene Cat 3 2010…Danielle Cat 4….Earl Cat 4 2008….Gaston Cat 4 2007…..Dean….Cat 5 2005…..Katrina Cat 5 2000…..none 1999…..Brett Cat 4….Cindy Cat 4 1998…..Bonnie Cat 3 1995…..Louis Cat 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: Even a very strong El Niño couldn’t flip the PDO, it actually got more strongly negative. With a La Niña developing, I very seriously doubt TC’s moving through are going to do anything but cause transient, temporary cooling then right back to the marine heatwave. We’ve seen this happen already. SSTs that anomalously warm aren’t just going away, it would take months of a constant assault. The North Pacific High just keeps rebuilding over and over, as long as that feedback cycle continues, the PDO is going to continue to be strongly negative. The PMM also failed to respond to the Nino, that was one of the reasons for the huge disconnect with the MEI last winter. We’ve also heard how many times now that the AMO is about to flip negative, when in fact it’s just gotten stronger positive. Kind of like how JB has been saying that arctic sea ice is going to increase lol It’s akin to the MJO….how many times in the last 5+ years have we seen failed attempt after failed attempt at phases 8-1-2? It just stays in phases 4-6….why? Because that’s where the warmest SSTs are. The 31C isotherm is right there. The atmosphere will always put the strongest convection/forcing where the warmest SSTs are despite what a climate model or even ENSO may say as we saw last winter. Now that the IOD is going negative along with a Niña, that just gives more support of the MJO in those phases On an unrelated note, I know you follow it, but it looks like the sunspot number for August is going to be over 230. Also appears that the QBO is going to see a rather large rise this month Edit: @40/70 Benchmark I don’t think a volcanic eruption that far north would have an effect on the stratosphere even if it were June. Tropical volcanoes are the ones that do it That is in actually incorrect.....they can all have an impact, but said impact differs based upon size and location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: So far the models are not showing any major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin from August 20th through September 1st. This isn’t a typical occurrence for heading into a La Niña winter. The only other years this happened since 1995 were in 2022 and 2000. While the sample size is very small to draw from, 2022 had a very active September with hurricanes Danielle and Earl reaching cat 1 and cat 2 status. The big stories that month were Fiona going Cat 4 and Ian Cat 5. La Niña years since 1995 major hurricanes August 20th September 1st 2022….none 2021….Ida….Cat 4…..Larry Cat 3 2020…Laura Cat 4 2017….Harvey Cat 4…Irma Cat 5 2016….Gaston Cat 3 2011….Irene Cat 3 2010…Danielle Cat 4….Earl Cat 4 2008….Gaston Cat 4 2007…..Dean….Cat 5 2005…..Katrina Cat 5 2000…..none 1999…..Brett Cat 4….Cindy Cat 4 1998…..Bonnie Cat 3 1995…..Louis Cat 4 2022 is high, high on my analog list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2022 is high, high on my analog list. Sweet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Sweet Don't worry, 2022 is very low on my list. I have years like 1998 and 2007 very high up (and you can possibly talk me into 2016). Not the best for winter weather in the mid-Atlantic, but could be very good for the Midwest and New England. What we have here is a developing first year la nina with a very cold subsurface. 1998, 2007, and 2016 all have those characteristics. We don't have that in 2022. That was a dissipating la nina, which peaked moderate early in the season (and in fact, you could argue was a carry over from the previous season). [I mean, in hindsight, it was easy to see coming with the very warm subsurface in summer 2022.] Now, here's the wrinkle: If the la nina peaks late into the season and turns more east based, then 2021-22 is going to look like a very good analog in hindsight. (I can see the late peak and carry over into 2025-26, but don't see an east based la nina right now.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 y'all can simplify a lot of stuff going into this seasonal outlook hobby - at least on my desk. summer and autumn solar demos a robust lag correlation to ao during ensuing winter. +solar = +ao -solar = -ao ...to me, we are looking at a +ao winter when factoring in that no formal prediction source saw the highest solar active max in over 20 years, and in fact, thought the opposite prior to this rage. heh. that, together with preexisting ( decadal recency ) to observe + as the dominant mode, anyway, +ao seems academic in this case. +ao winters are not summarily ruled out in 1990 securing d-drip doses in 2024? gets a bit 'shakier' we're gonna have to lop this attribution shit ( which is unfortunately real shit) on top of the former statistic. as to the lower and mid latitudes, it seems to me this la nina is either weaker in general , or made less effectual anyway, because like all ensos of the last 20 years ... they've been manifesting lesser responses ( i didn't say zero ). again, i believe they are getting buried/overwhelmed. it's been my own take on that for years. since, this roni business has emerged and well there you go. it's getting arithmetic for me. la nada-relative hemisphere pretty much leaves the dominating mode to the attribution stuff, which is a gradient rich, higher speed sheary shit show, taking place under a +ao. should all = a low scoring winter from winter enthusiast side of grading, to put it nicely 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 11 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Don't worry, 2022 is very low on my list. I have years like 1998 and 2007 very high up (and you can possibly talk me into 2016). Not the best for winter weather in the mid-Atlantic, but could be very good for the Midwest and New England. What we have here is a developing first year la nina with a very cold subsurface. 1998, 2007, and 2016 all have those characteristics. We don't have that in 2022. That was a dissipating la nina, which peaked moderate early in the season (and in fact, you could argue was a carry over from the previous season). [I mean, in hindsight, it was easy to see coming with the very warm subsurface in summer 2022.] Now, here's the wrinkle: If the la nina peaks late into the season and turns more east based, then 2021-22 is going to look like a very good analog in hindsight. (I can see the late peak and carry over into 2025-26, but don't see an east based la nina right now.) Ive seen 2007-08 thrown around quite a bit. Fantastic winter in the Great Lakes. Temps near avg overall (colder Dec/Feb, warmer Jan) and several snowpack crushing thaws, even a few winter torches (see early Jan 2008) but overall a nonstop parade of snowstorms. Snowfall that winter totaled: 71.7" in Detroit, 82.8" in Flint, 60.3" in Chicago, & 99.1" in Milwaukee. Also, I went up to Paradise, MI (on Lake Superior in the UP) the first week of March, and saw to this day what is the deepest snowpack of my lifetime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 1 hour ago, bluewave said: 2007…..Dean….Cat 5 Didn't Felix (Cat 5) also develop in that window? I believe it was Aug 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 but i'd be willing to suggest an early winter event from late oct - mid dec, prior to the gradient lock down prison. then again perhaps late when relaxation teams up with cold meanders in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Didn't Felix (Cat 5) also develop in that window? I believe it was Aug 31. It just missed being a MH during the window ending 9/1 by one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is in actually incorrect.....they can all have an impact, but said impact differs based upon size and location. Don’t disagree that they can have *some* stratospheric impact, however if you want a classic “Pinatubo” stratosphere, with the biggest effect, you want a tropical volcanic eruption greater than a VEI 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 21 hours ago, GaWx said: If the GFS/Euro end up verifying well, there could be as many as 4 straight Tahiti SLPs of 1019+ during Aug 19-22. I’d be very surprised if there isn’t at least one. Keep in mind that higher Tahiti pressure is favored during developing La Niña. There hasn’t been even a single day of 1019+ since 2010! Tahiti SLP 1019+ since 1991: 1019.55: 1994 (Aug) 1019.1, 1019.44: 1996 (June) 1019.3: 1998 (Aug) 1019.28: 1999 (Aug) 1019.24: 2010 (July) 1019.44, 1019.61, 1019.78, 1019.59, 1019.14: 2010 (Sep) 1019.05: 2010 (Sep) -So, there have been only 13 days of Tahiti SLP of 1019+ over the last 33 years with the record high being 1019.78 (Sep of 2010). - This shows there’s been only one time when there were more than two days in a row of that (Sep of 2010). That was during the longest streak on record, 5 days. - This shows that all were during June-Sep with a mean date of Aug. That makes sense because that’s during their winter, when sfc cold high pressures are at their highest SLP of the year. - There is a decent correlation between high Tahiti SLP periods and an active Atlantic tropics mainly 1-3 weeks afterward. That jibes well with the idea of an active Atlantic sometime between very late this month and mid Sep. Well, Tahiti had 1019.15 yesterday, the highest daily SLP there since Sep of 2010 and only the 14th day of 1019+ since 1991. There look to be 3 more chances for a 1019+ through Aug 22. Then it will drop, but there are hints of another strong high passing to the S of Tahiti early next week that could easily raise them back above 1018 for a couple of days. These high Tahiti SLPs favor further development of La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: y'all can simplify a lot of stuff going into this seasonal outlook hobby - at least on my desk. summer and autumn solar demos a robust lag correlation to ao during ensuing winter. +solar = +ao -solar = -ao ...to me, we are looking at a +ao winter when factoring in that no formal prediction source saw the highest solar active max in over 20 years, and in fact, thought the opposite prior to this rage. heh. that, together with preexisting ( decadal recency ) to observe + as the dominant mode, anyway, +ao seems academic in this case. +ao winters are not summarily ruled out in 1990 securing d-drip doses in 2024? gets a bit 'shakier' we're gonna have to lop this attribution shit ( which is unfortunately real shit) on top of the former statistic. as to the lower and mid latitudes, it seems to me this la nina is either weaker in general , or made less effectual anyway, because like all ensos of the last 20 years ... they've been manifesting lesser responses ( i didn't say zero ). again, i believe they are getting buried/overwhelmed. it's been my own take on that for years. since, this roni business has emerged and well there you go. it's getting arithmetic for me. la nada-relative hemisphere pretty much leaves the dominating mode to the attribution stuff, which is a gradient rich, higher speed sheary shit show, taking place under a +ao. should all = a low scoring winter from winter enthusiast side of grading, to put it nicely I think you are obfuscating the trend towards a weaker peak ONI of La Nina and the tendency for CC to partially negate ENSO....I think the latter issue was more prevalent last season when we had an El Nino. If anything, the opposite is the case this season....and RONI reflects that. A giant west PAC warm pool will accentuate cool ENSO and attenuate warm ENSO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 i suspect the enso will be too weak to matter against the din of these overwhelming other aspects. not much else. the ao being preponderantly positive is a bigger issue for me, as well. if so ( and it is robustly correlated to be ... ) it would be in a constructive interference with other mitigating stuff, muting enso forcing even more. i said the -enso may turn out weaker - i meant so on its own. but that's also hurting it's case as an exerting influence, granted - i'm not obfuscating anything - i'm just not considering any of that noise as factoring enough over the louder indicators. the hemisphere's destined to be velocity soaked and stressing telecon correlations - this is also being papered. I don't have a problem with those publications because matter of fact ...i've been railing about this since 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: i suspect the enso will be too weak to matter against the din of these overwhelming other aspects. not much else. the ao being preponderantly positive is a bigger issue for me, as well. if so ( and it is robustly correlated to be ... ) it would be in a constructive interference with other mitigating stuff, muting enso forcing even more. i said the -enso may turn out weaker - i meant so on its own. but that's also hurting it's case as an exerting influence, granted - i'm not obfuscating anything - i'm just not considering any of that noise as factoring enough over the louder indicators. the hemisphere's destined to be velocity soaked and stressing telecon correlations - this is also being papered. I don't have a problem with those publications because matter of fact ...i've been railing about this since 2010 Well, regardless of whether you want to attribute it to ENSO or the west Pacific, the hemispohere will be cool ENSO like this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, regardless of whether you want to attribute it to ENSO or the west Pacific, the hemispohere will be cool ENSO like this season. okay... i guess i'm describing more so a pathway to winter sucking giant donkey balls, and why ? i'm not in any kind of argument over whether the hemsiphere resembles whatever wrt to enso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: okay... i guess i'm describing more so a pathway to winter sucking giant donkey balls, and why ? i'm not in any kind of argument over whether the hemsiphere resembles whatever wrt to enso. I agree that winter looks bleak...just saying, not sure this season will be the most glimmering illustration of how ENSO is losing relevence...at least not ostensibly, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree that winter looks bleak...just saying, not sure this season will be the most glimmering illustration of how ENSO is losing relevence...at least not ostensibly, anyway. okay, at risk of being sucked in - which i won't let myself... i'll just say, if it ends up within .5 of neutral anyway, logic dictates lowering relevancy when in that n/s range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 @Stormchaserchuck1Do you have any sort of data to back up your +NAO/+PNA link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 again, an early winter showing wouldn't surprise me though... lol if november 14 through dec 10's or something is the best winter expression 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: okay, at risk of being sucked in - which i won't let myself... i'll just say, if it ends up within .5 of neutral anyway, logic dictates lowering relevancy when in that n/s range... I don't think I agree with that in terms of La Nina, as the west Pac warm pool, which is augmenting the impact of cool ENSO, appears at least somethwhat attributable to CC....this is why RONI is about .5 more robust than ONI. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @Stormchaserchuck1Do you have any sort of data to back up your +NAO/+PNA link? I've observed by looking at models every day for the last 5 years. You can see it on daily climate composites, but you'll have to look at it day-by-day, the correlation picked up in Winter 2018-19 and after. It's about a 0.40 correlation since 2019 (+pna/-epo during or around +nao, and -pna/+epo at or around -nao), and 0.25 to 0.30 since 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 -PDO's strongly correlate to a warm Fall, so I would be surprised if we saw "an early Winter". But for years like 13-14 and 02-03, the Pacific pattern really changed in the preceding Sept/Oct, so you'll have to look for that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think I agree with that in terms of La Nina, as the west Pac warm pool, which is augmenting the impact of cool ENSO, appears at least somethwhat attributable to CC....this is why RONI is about .5 more robust than ONI. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt where's that coming from ? i've not seen any refereed material on that aspect. speculation: that is there as a cumulative effect of sea-surface stressing coming from the surrounding hemispheric mode(s) over the last 5-7 years. could be a chicken and egg thing, but i think of it as a 'barometer' ( ha ) of the times, more so than a driver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: where's that coming from ? i've not seen any refereed material on that aspect. speculation: that is there as a cumulative effect of sea-surface stressing coming from the surrounding hemispheric mode(s) over the last 5-7 years. could be a chicken and egg thing, but i think of it more as a 'barometer' ( ha ) of the times, more so than a driver. Its enhacing convection over the MC, which is congruent with cool ENSO forcing. This is why 2022-2023 featured one of the most powerful cool ENSO Walker Cells on record, despte only registering -1.0 ONI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: -PDO's strongly correlate to a warm Fall, so I would be surprised if we saw "an early Winter". But for years like 13-14 and 02-03, the Pacific pattern really changed in the preceding Sept/Oct, so you'll have to look for that.. For 13-14, the pattern changed long before Sept/Oct. I think it changed some time in mid-July. I've never seen a summer all of a sudden turn from hot to cold in the middle like that one. But that was a very wet summer from start to finish. Of course, that was a sign of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: -PDO's strongly correlate to a warm Fall, so I would be surprised if we saw "an early Winter". But for years like 13-14 and 02-03, the Pacific pattern really changed in the preceding Sept/Oct, so you'll have to look for that.. although we've been observing cryo supporting and/or snow achieving air masses in half of the octobers since 2010, despite the -pdo. not sure these have extended down into the m/a.. but there's clearly been a shift toward buckling the patterns and sending cold anomalies under roll-over/ higher latitude u/a warm nodes and causing new england cold bursts earlier. interesting. thing is, they're not like persistent. they're in and out in 7 days, the month sometimes still end up above normal by a tick or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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