2024-2025 La Nina

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2022 is high, high on my analog list.

Sweet  

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sweet  

Don't worry, 2022 is very low on my list. I have years like 1998 and 2007 very high up (and you can possibly talk me into 2016). Not the best for winter weather in the mid-Atlantic, but could be very good for the Midwest and New England. What we have here is a developing first year la nina with a very cold subsurface. 1998, 2007, and 2016 all have those characteristics. We don't have that in 2022. That was a dissipating la nina, which peaked moderate early in the season (and in fact, you could argue was a carry over from the previous season). [I mean, in hindsight, it was easy to see coming with the very warm subsurface in summer 2022.]

Now, here's the wrinkle: If the la nina peaks late into the season and turns more east based, then 2021-22 is going to look like a very good analog in hindsight. (I can see the late peak and carry over into 2025-26, but don't see an east based la nina right now.)

[Typhoon Tip]

y'all can simplify a lot of stuff going into this seasonal outlook hobby - at least on my desk.

summer and autumn solar demos a robust lag correlation to ao during ensuing winter. 

+solar = +ao

-solar = -ao

...to me, we are looking at a +ao winter when factoring in that no formal prediction source saw the highest solar active max in over 20 years, and in fact, thought the opposite prior to this rage.  heh.   that, together with preexisting ( decadal recency ) to observe + as the dominant mode, anyway, +ao seems academic in this case.  

+ao winters are not summarily ruled out in 1990 

securing d-drip doses in 2024? gets a bit 'shakier'   we're gonna have to lop this attribution shit ( which is unfortunately real shit) on top of the former statistic.

as to the lower and mid latitudes, it seems to me this la nina is either weaker in general , or made less effectual anyway, because like all ensos of the last 20 years ... they've been manifesting lesser responses ( i didn't say zero ).  again, i believe they are getting buried/overwhelmed.  it's been my own take on that for years. since, this roni business has emerged and well there you go. 

it's getting arithmetic for me.   la nada-relative  hemisphere pretty much leaves the dominating mode to the attribution stuff, which is a gradient rich, higher speed sheary shit show, taking place under a +ao.  

should all = a low scoring winter from winter enthusiast side of grading, to put it nicely

 

[michsnowfreak]

11 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Don't worry, 2022 is very low on my list. I have years like 1998 and 2007 very high up (and you can possibly talk me into 2016). Not the best for winter weather in the mid-Atlantic, but could be very good for the Midwest and New England. What we have here is a developing first year la nina with a very cold subsurface. 1998, 2007, and 2016 all have those characteristics. We don't have that in 2022. That was a dissipating la nina, which peaked moderate early in the season (and in fact, you could argue was a carry over from the previous season). [I mean, in hindsight, it was easy to see coming with the very warm subsurface in summer 2022.]

Now, here's the wrinkle: If the la nina peaks late into the season and turns more east based, then 2021-22 is going to look like a very good analog in hindsight. (I can see the late peak and carry over into 2025-26, but don't see an east based la nina right now.)

Ive seen 2007-08 thrown around quite a bit. Fantastic winter in the Great Lakes. Temps near avg overall (colder Dec/Feb, warmer Jan) and several snowpack crushing thaws, even a few winter torches (see early Jan 2008) but overall a nonstop parade of snowstorms. Snowfall that winter totaled: 71.7" in Detroit, 82.8" in Flint, 60.3" in Chicago, & 99.1" in Milwaukee. Also, I went up to Paradise, MI (on Lake Superior in the UP) the first week of March, and saw to this day what is the deepest snowpack of my lifetime.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

2007…..Dean….Cat 5

Didn't Felix (Cat 5) also develop in that window? I believe it was Aug 31.

[Typhoon Tip]

but i'd be willing to suggest an early winter event from late oct - mid dec, prior to the gradient lock down prison.

then again perhaps late when relaxation teams up with cold meanders in the spring.

 

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Didn't Felix (Cat 5) also develop in that window? I believe it was Aug 31.

It just missed being a MH during the window ending 9/1 by one day.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is in actually incorrect.....they can all have an impact, but said impact differs based upon size and location.

Don’t disagree that they can have *some* stratospheric impact, however if you want a classic “Pinatubo” stratosphere, with the biggest effect, you want a tropical volcanic eruption greater than a VEI 5

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

 If the GFS/Euro end up verifying well, there could be as many as 4 straight Tahiti SLPs of 1019+ during Aug 19-22. I’d be very surprised if there isn’t at least one. Keep in mind that higher Tahiti pressure is favored during developing La Niña. There hasn’t been even a single day of 1019+ since 2010!

Tahiti SLP 1019+ since 1991:

1019.55: 1994 (Aug)

1019.1, 1019.44: 1996 (June)

1019.3: 1998 (Aug)

1019.28: 1999 (Aug)

1019.24: 2010 (July)

1019.44, 1019.61, 1019.78, 1019.59, 1019.14: 2010 (Sep)

1019.05: 2010 (Sep)

 

 -So, there have been only 13 days of Tahiti SLP of 1019+ over the last 33 years with the record high being 1019.78 (Sep of 2010).

- This shows there’s been only one time when there were more than two days in a row of that (Sep of 2010). That was during the longest streak on record, 5 days.

- This shows that all were during June-Sep with a mean date of Aug. That makes sense because that’s during their winter, when sfc cold high pressures are at their highest SLP of the year.

- There is a decent correlation between high Tahiti SLP periods and an active Atlantic tropics mainly 1-3 weeks afterward. That jibes well with the idea of an active Atlantic sometime between very late this month and mid Sep.

 Well, Tahiti had 1019.15 yesterday, the highest daily SLP there since Sep of 2010 and only the 14th day of 1019+ since 1991. There look to be 3 more chances for a 1019+ through Aug 22. Then it will drop, but there are hints of another strong high passing to the S of Tahiti early next week that could easily raise them back above 1018 for a couple of days. These high Tahiti SLPs favor further development of La Niña.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

y'all can simplify a lot of stuff going into this seasonal outlook hobby - at least on my desk.

summer and autumn solar demos a robust lag correlation to ao during ensuing winter. 

+solar = +ao

-solar = -ao

...to me, we are looking at a +ao winter when factoring in that no formal prediction source saw the highest solar active max in over 20 years, and in fact, thought the opposite prior to this rage.  heh.   that, together with preexisting ( decadal recency ) to observe + as the dominant mode, anyway, +ao seems academic in this case.  

+ao winters are not summarily ruled out in 1990 

securing d-drip doses in 2024? gets a bit 'shakier'   we're gonna have to lop this attribution shit ( which is unfortunately real shit) on top of the former statistic.

as to the lower and mid latitudes, it seems to me this la nina is either weaker in general , or made less effectual anyway, because like all ensos of the last 20 years ... they've been manifesting lesser responses ( i didn't say zero ).  again, i believe they are getting buried/overwhelmed.  it's been my own take on that for years. since, this roni business has emerged and well there you go. 

it's getting arithmetic for me.   la nada-relative  hemisphere pretty much leaves the dominating mode to the attribution stuff, which is a gradient rich, higher speed sheary shit show, taking place under a +ao.  

should all = a low scoring winter from winter enthusiast side of grading, to put it nicely

 

I think you are obfuscating the trend towards a weaker peak ONI of La Nina and the tendency for CC to partially negate ENSO....I think the latter issue was more prevalent last season when we had an El Nino. If anything, the opposite is the case this season....and RONI reflects that. A giant west PAC warm pool will accentuate cool ENSO and attenuate warm ENSO.

[Typhoon Tip]

i suspect the enso will be too weak to matter against the din of these overwhelming other aspects.   not much else.

the ao being preponderantly positive is a bigger issue for me, as well.  if so ( and it is robustly correlated to be ... ) it would be in a constructive interference with other mitigating stuff, muting enso forcing even more.   i said the -enso may turn out weaker - i meant so on its own. but that's also hurting it's case as an exerting influence, granted -

i'm not obfuscating anything - i'm just not considering any of that noise as factoring enough over the louder indicators.   

the hemisphere's destined to be velocity soaked and stressing telecon correlations - this is also being papered.   I don't have a problem with those publications because matter of fact ...i've been railing about this since 2010

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i suspect the enso will be too weak to matter against the din of these overwhelming other aspects.   not much else.

the ao being preponderantly positive is a bigger issue for me, as well.  if so ( and it is robustly correlated to be ... ) it would be in a constructive interference with other mitigating stuff, muting enso forcing even more.   i said the -enso may turn out weaker - i meant so on its own. but that's also hurting it's case as an exerting influence, granted -

i'm not obfuscating anything - i'm just not considering any of that noise as factoring enough over the louder indicators.   

the hemisphere's destined to be velocity soaked and stressing telecon correlations - this is also being papered.   I don't have a problem with those publications because matter of fact ...i've been railing about this since 2010

Well, regardless of whether you want to attribute it to ENSO or the west Pacific, the hemispohere will be cool ENSO like this season.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, regardless of whether you want to attribute it to ENSO or the west Pacific, the hemispohere will be cool ENSO like this season.

okay... 

i guess i'm describing more so a pathway to winter sucking giant donkey balls, and why ?

i'm not in any kind of argument over whether the hemsiphere resembles whatever wrt to enso.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

okay... 

i guess i'm describing more so a pathway to winter sucking giant donkey balls, and why ?

i'm not in any kind of argument over whether the hemsiphere resembles whatever wrt to enso.

I agree that winter looks bleak...just saying, not sure this season will be the most glimmering illustration of how ENSO is losing relevence...at least not ostensibly, anyway.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree that winter looks bleak...just saying, not sure this season will be the most glimmering illustration of how ENSO is losing relevence...at least not ostensibly, anyway.

okay, at risk of being sucked in - which i won't let myself...  i'll just say, if it ends up within .5 of neutral anyway, logic dictates lowering relevancy when in that n/s range...   

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

@Stormchaserchuck1Do you have any sort of data to back up your +NAO/+PNA link?

[Typhoon Tip]

again, an early winter showing wouldn't surprise me though...

lol if november 14 through dec 10's or something is the best winter expression

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

okay, at risk of being sucked in - which i won't let myself...  i'll just say, if it ends up within .5 of neutral anyway, logic dictates lowering relevancy when in that n/s range...   

 

I don't think I agree with that in terms of La Nina, as the west Pac warm pool, which is augmenting the impact of cool ENSO, appears at least somethwhat attributable to CC....this is why RONI is about .5 more robust than ONI. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Stormchaserchuck1Do you have any sort of data to back up your +NAO/+PNA link?

I've observed by looking at models every day for the last 5 years. You can see it on daily climate composites, but you'll have to look at it day-by-day, the correlation picked up in Winter 2018-19 and after. It's about a 0.40 correlation since 2019 (+pna/-epo during or around +nao, and -pna/+epo at or around -nao), and 0.25 to 0.30 since 2013. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-PDO's strongly correlate to a warm Fall, so I would be surprised if we saw "an early Winter". But for years like 13-14 and 02-03, the Pacific pattern really changed in the preceding Sept/Oct, so you'll have to look for that.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think I agree with that in terms of La Nina, as the west Pac warm pool, which is augmenting the impact of cool ENSO, appears at least somethwhat attributable to CC....this is why RONI is about .5 more robust than ONI. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

where's that coming from ?    i've not seen any refereed material on that aspect.   

speculation:  that is there as a cumulative effect of sea-surface stressing coming from the surrounding hemispheric mode(s) over the last 5-7 years.  could be a chicken and egg thing, but i think of it as a 'barometer' ( ha ) of the times, more so than a driver. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

where's that coming from ?    i've not seen any refereed material on that aspect.   

speculation:  that is there as a cumulative effect of sea-surface stressing coming from the surrounding hemispheric mode(s) over the last 5-7 years.  could be a chicken and egg thing, but i think of it more as a 'barometer' ( ha ) of the times, more so than a driver. 

Its enhacing convection over the MC, which is congruent with cool ENSO forcing. This is why 2022-2023 featured one of the most powerful cool ENSO Walker Cells on record, despte only registering -1.0 ONI.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-PDO's strongly correlate to a warm Fall, so I would be surprised if we saw "an early Winter". But for years like 13-14 and 02-03, the Pacific pattern really changed in the preceding Sept/Oct, so you'll have to look for that.. 

For 13-14, the pattern changed long before Sept/Oct. I think it changed some time in mid-July. I've never seen a summer all of a sudden turn from hot to cold in the middle like that one. But that was a very wet summer from start to finish. Of course, that was a sign of things to come.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-PDO's strongly correlate to a warm Fall, so I would be surprised if we saw "an early Winter". But for years like 13-14 and 02-03, the Pacific pattern really changed in the preceding Sept/Oct, so you'll have to look for that.. 

although we've been observing cryo supporting and/or snow achieving air masses in half of the octobers since 2010, despite the -pdo.   not sure these have extended down into the m/a.. but there's clearly been a shift toward buckling the patterns and sending cold anomalies under roll-over/ higher latitude u/a warm nodes and causing new england cold bursts earlier.   interesting. 

thing is, they're not like persistent.   they're in and out in 7 days, the month sometimes still end up above normal by a tick or two.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its enhacing convection over the MC, which is congruent with cool ENSO forcing. This is why 2022-2023 featured one of the most powerful cool ENSO Walker Cells on record, despte only registering -1.0 ONI.

it's not driving the walker cells.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

You'll find that October is the only month of the year that has an opposite correlation to the Winter's NAO state.. so it may be a backwards way of doing things, but if we are expecting a +nao Winter, I would look for a -NAO October. And because of what's been correlating globally, I would say watch out for a -PNA and maybe +EPO pattern in October too. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's not driving the walker cells.  

I didn't say "drive".....it enhanced it.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

For 13-14, the pattern changed long before Sept/Oct. I think it changed some time in mid-July. I've never seen a summer all of a sudden turn from hot to cold in the middle like that one. But that was a very wet summer from start to finish. Of course, that was a sign of things to come.

We still had a very -PDO pattern in Sept 2013.. that's what I'm referring to. But when the pattern doesn't change in the Fall's of those -PDO's, it usually carries into the Winter.. SSTs are more secondary to the atmospheric pattern though. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

although we've been observing cryo supporting and/or snow achieving air masses in half of the octobers since 2010, despite the -pdo.   not sure these have extended down into the m/a.. but there's clearly been a shift toward buckling the patterns and sending cold anomalies under roll-over/ higher latitude u/a warm nodes and causing new england cold bursts earlier.   interesting. 

thing is, they're not like persistent.   they're in and out in 7 days, the month sometimes still end up above normal by a tick or two.

 

Interesting.. I mean in good Winter's, the pattern just goes crazy cold in the preceding Fall's. I think this was the case in 95-96, too.. Big time +PNA or -EPO. 

People have also done research making December a hot month for the following Winter.. this is more common sense stuff though, cold begets cold, warm begets warm. It seems to be intensified for the last 30 years though.