Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 We had an expanded Hadley Cell/N. America SE ridge since late January: I've theorized that ENSO subsurface conditions have a stronger correlation to the N. Hemisphere pattern than the surface does at 0-time (not perfect, but more often than not, historically.. ). We had cold water move below the central-ENSO region during mid to late January... I made list of analogs matching this US Temp pattern, since the AMO went positive and PDO went negative ~1995. These transitioned from an east-based El Nino look in April, to a stronger La Nina by the following December.. (13 analogs): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, roardog said: The ‘22-‘23 winter was probably about the worst Nina pattern we can get for this area. The western trough/eastern ridge is expected in a Nina but it was amplified to the extreme. If it would have been even a little less amplified, it would have been much more interesting here. It was great for Minnesota though. Exactly. Although it was also a 3rd year Nina. Not sure how you did up there, but a snowy March definitely brought the season total into respectability range in the metro area. This winter of 2023-24 was in a league of its own that fortunately we rarely see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 2022-23 was a bit weird. Early on, it looked like it was going to dip into a strong la nina (like 1975-76), but it stayed a moderate la nina for the 3rd straight year, then dissipated quickly and transitioned into a strong el nino the following season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We had an expanded Hadley Cell/N. America SE ridge since late January: I've theorized that ENSO subsurface conditions have a stronger correlation to the N. Hemisphere pattern than the surface does at 0-time (not perfect, but more often than not, historically.. ). We had cold water move below the central-ENSO region during mid to late January... I made list of analogs matching this US Temp pattern, since the AMO went positive and PDO went negative ~1995. These transitioned from an east-based El Nino look in April, to a stronger La Nina by the following December.. (13 analogs): Strong Modoki La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 15 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: 2022-23 was a bit weird. Early on, it looked like it was going to dip into a strong la nina (like 1975-76), but it stayed a moderate la nina for the 3rd straight year, then dissipated quickly and transitioned into a strong el nino the following season. Shame the MEI is going away as even though ONI showed about -1 to -1.2, MEI saw this as a near strong/ borderline super Nina. In fact the second strongest in the last 40 or so years, 2010-11 being the strongest -MEI and 1989 coming in at a close third. While La Ninas aren't great for the east we can still manage something at least interior tends to get the brunt, last year was just a whole different situation. If we do indeed go full bore La Nina the winters following tend to not be terrible after following a strong Nino. So we shall see that is also based on the idea the PDO doesn't stay extremely negative but we are still not seeing much change in that department. Also welcome to the boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 On 3/5/2024 at 6:23 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said: If we were going to get a revisit of 09-10, it would have been this year with the strong el nino, but as they say "no two el ninos are alike". Our last true enso neutral season was 2013-14, a blockbuster snow season (although the year before, 2012-13, was another enso neutral season, but not a great snow season). However, it's unlikely that we're getting that in 2024-25. The most likely scenario is the strong la nina. Good news: The last strong la nina was 2010-11, which followed the strong el nino of 2009-10. We had an above average snow season in 2010-11, and the Atlantic was warm in 2010. 10-11 is one of the best analog years (along with 73-74) for 2024-25. It's not so much that all el ninos aren't alike (which is also true), but it's that enso is only like 20% of a component of our weather, regardless of how strong it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 On 3/4/2024 at 8:44 PM, so_whats_happening said: This year while in many areas wasn't great at all, there was one spot that managed to do well. PA was the hot spot for average to above average snowfall this year and at that a rather localized area from about Scranton to Allentown and back to about Harrisburg/ State College area. We managed about 18-19" on the winter which is below average on our 26" yearly snowfall. This was not a bad winter for our neck of the woods but last winter was horrific (0.9" for the entire winter). 2020/21 was our last above average winter (~34") and that came with a nice storm in February and a nice event from the huge storm that pummeled BGM back in December 2020. At this point im rooting for a neutral event, while one year I would love to have a revisit of 09-10 pop up im on the lets get to average train at this point. I have been noticing though when we do get these marginal events things are just a bit too warm for us anymore when we used to be able to manage to stay slightly on the cooler side of things. I do wonder if the warm Atlantic is causing this issue. That hurts us immensely on those quick pickups of 2-4" that would help get to near average. We had a 15" storm near and just south of Mt Pocono in early January and February was okay too. You wouldn't happen to have seasonal snowfall numbers from the area around Mt Pocono to Lake Harmony at about 2,000 feet elevation would you? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Shame the MEI is going away as even though ONI showed about -1 to -1.2, MEI saw this as a near strong/ borderline super Nina. In fact the second strongest in the last 40 or so years, 2010-11 being the strongest -MEI and 1989 coming in at a close third. While La Ninas aren't great for the east we can still manage something at least interior tends to get the brunt, last year was just a whole different situation. If we do indeed go full bore La Nina the winters following tend to not be terrible after following a strong Nino. So we shall see that is also based on the idea the PDO doesn't stay extremely negative but we are still not seeing much change in that department. Also welcome to the boards. weak la ninas can be great and sometimes even moderate ones are good-- we just need to get out of this rut of warm Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: weak la ninas can be great and sometimes even moderate ones are good-- we just need to get out of this rut of warm Decembers. No better time to start than a 1st year Nina. I know each ENSO strength has different effects between the Great Lakes & east coast, but the number of good Nina Decembers here is intriguing to me. Everything snaps at some point. We were having a historic run of snowy Februarys, then bam, 2 crap ones in a row. Likewise, a run of shitty Decembers can turn around at any point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: No better time to start than a 1st year Nina. I know each ENSO strength has different effects between the Great Lakes & east coast, but the number of good Nina Decembers here is intriguing to me. Everything snaps at some point. We were having a historic run of snowy Februarys, then bam, 2 crap ones in a row. Likewise, a run of shitty Decembers can turn around at any point. la ninas after el ninos are some of our snowiest seasons on record. It happened in both 95-96 and 10-11 I know some have been mediocre, but I like this combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: la ninas after el ninos are some of our snowiest seasons on record. It happened in both 95-96 and 10-11 I know some have been mediocre, but I like this combo. One of the things I like about La Nina’s is you know what you are going to get with the winter by mid-late December. The good Niña winters you get buried early. If it’s a Niña and Dec torches, there’s no “oh maybe it will turn around”, it means the winter is cooked. Where as with this winter, many of us spent 2 months chasing ghosts before it became clear we were starting down a ratter. With a Niña, that false hope doesn’t exist. On the other hand if we do get snow in December, it’s a lot more fun to track storms because you know more is coming at some point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 On 3/16/2024 at 12:24 AM, George001 said: One of the things I like about La Nina’s is you know what you are going to get with the winter by mid-late December. The good Niña winters you get buried early. If it’s a Niña and Dec torches, there’s no “oh maybe it will turn around”, it means the winter is cooked. Where as with this winter, many of us spent 2 months chasing ghosts before it became clear we were starting down a ratter. With a Niña, that false hope doesn’t exist. On the other hand if we do get snow in December, it’s a lot more fun to track storms because you know more is coming at some point. The usual suspects will state that a pattern change is coming.... Back in the early fall I pointed out to you the developing storm track and the strength of the El Nino. I mentioned those weren't good signs for winter 23-24.......easiest winter that I have ever experienced....grade F-...well below normal snowfall to go along with well above normal temps. ...a non winter. I'll take my chances with a El/La Nothing... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 On 3/15/2024 at 7:30 PM, LibertyBell said: la ninas after el ninos are some of our snowiest seasons on record. It happened in both 95-96 and 10-11 I know some have been mediocre, but I like this combo. I would take my chance with ANY Nina here, but particularly 1st year Ninas. Whats funny is that 1995-96 was a really crappy winter here in that it was very cold and dry. We missed snow to the N, S, E, & W. A 6" snowstorm on the 1st day of spring 1996 "rescued" the season, DTW finishing at 27.6". Its rare that NYC beats DTW in seasonal snow, and that year they annihalted us with 75.6". It was a great year for lake ice and what not, but one of the shittier Nina snow seasons. But 2010-11? Now you are talking (69.1" at DTW, 61.9" NYC). As long as you give us a storm track, mild and even warm winters can do fine with snowfall (but of course the warmer it is, the worse snowcover is), so I guess in hindsight, 1995-96 was the MUCH rarer opposite problem- plenty of cold, missing all the storms (except clippers), no help from the frozen lakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 On 3/16/2024 at 12:24 AM, George001 said: One of the things I like about La Nina’s is you know what you are going to get with the winter by mid-late December. The good Niña winters you get buried early. If it’s a Niña and Dec torches, there’s no “oh maybe it will turn around”, it means the winter is cooked. Where as with this winter, many of us spent 2 months chasing ghosts before it became clear we were starting down a ratter. With a Niña, that false hope doesn’t exist. On the other hand if we do get snow in December, it’s a lot more fun to track storms because you know more is coming at some point. Interesting. I would not say "you know what youre getting" about Ninas here. I wonder if @40/70 Benchmark would agree for your area? Many Ninas here are front loaded, some backloaded, but usually theres a notably harsh portion of the winter and a notably meh portion (not always - see 2007-08 or 2010-11, wall to wall fun). I specifically remember that the 2000-01 winter was all midwest Nov/Dec then all northeast Jan-Mar, though I cant recall if that was an exception or the rule. Im really anxious to see if we can get one of those good, snowy Decembers because thats what we are due most for (and its also one of the snowiest months in Nina winters here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 8 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: The usual suspects will state that a pattern change is coming.... Back in the early fall I pointed out to you the developing storm track and the strength of the El Nino. I mentioned those weren't good signs for winter 23-24.......easiest winter that I have ever experienced....grade F-...well below normal snowfall to go along with well above normal temps. ...a non winter. I'll take my chances with a El/La Nothing... Not me....I was out over a month ago. My overall outlook was a fail, but I was never in on a big ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Interesting. I would not say "you know what youre getting" about Ninas here. I wonder if @40/70 Benchmark would agree for your area? Many Ninas here are front loaded, some backloaded, but usually theres a notably harsh portion of the winter and a notably meh portion (not always - see 2007-08 or 2010-11, wall to wall fun). I specifically remember that the 2000-01 winter was all midwest Nov/Dec then all northeast Jan-Mar, though I cant recall if that was an exception or the rule. Im really anxious to see if we can get one of those good, snowy Decembers because thats what we are due most for (and its also one of the snowiest months in Nina winters here). For the most part, a very mild and snowless December in La Niña is a very bad sign. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 10 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: The usual suspects will state that a pattern change is coming.... Back in the early fall I pointed out to you the developing storm track and the strength of the El Nino. I mentioned those weren't good signs for winter 23-24.......easiest winter that I have ever experienced....grade F-...well below normal snowfall to go along with well above normal temps. ...a non winter. I'll take my chances with a El/La Nothing... Yeah you nailed it with that, the early signs were bad. I never liked this winter, which is why I forecasted 20-30 inches of snow in Boston with well above normal temps back in November. Turns out I was way too snowy, Boston will end up with half of what my low end was. Next year is likely to be a 2010-2011 strength la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Anyone want to bet that Joe Bastardi won’t go 3+ F warmer than normal for the bulk of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England for his FINAL winter forecast for 2024-5? I’m not talking about any preliminary forecasts. I actually hope I’m wrong because I’d like to see him do it for a change for his final. I can’t tell you how long it has been since he did just that. One at the very least has to go back to 2013-4 for the final one to possibly be that warm. I actually don’t know what he had for 2013-4 or earlier because I can’t find them. WxBell started ~2010. His preliminary winter forecast for 2020-1 was ~+3 to +4 for the bulk of the Mid-Atlantic and much of the Ohio Valley (New England was +2 to +3): But then he cooled it way down for the final to mainly +0.5 to +1: that’s why I say wait until the final is released Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Anyone want to bet that Joe Bastardi won’t go 3+ F warmer than normal for the bulk of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England for his FINAL winter forecast for 2024-5? I’m not talking about any preliminary forecasts. I actually hope I’m wrong because I’d like to see him do it for a change for his final. I can’t tell you how long it has been since he did just that. One at the very least has to go back to 2013-4 for the final one to be that warm. His preliminary winter forecast for 2020-1 was ~+3 to +4 for the bulk of the Mid-Atlantic and much of the Ohio Valley (New England was +2 to +3): But then he cooled it way down for the final to mainly +0.5 to +1: that’s why I say wait until the final is released Assuming that's a typo on the bottom graph (meaning it should be 2020-21) I'd have to say his forecast was dead on here. The "normal" line runs through Detroit and DTW finished the winter +0.1°. Also, am I reading correctly? Did he actually forecast 2013-14 to be a warm winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 24 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Assuming that's a typo on the bottom graph (meaning it should be 2020-21) I'd have to say his forecast was dead on here. The "normal" line runs through Detroit and DTW finished the winter +0.1°. Also, am I reading correctly? Did he actually forecast 2013-14 to be a warm winter 1. Yes, that’s a typo on the bottom graph. 2. He actually did well with his cooler revision for 2020-1. My point in showing that though was to show that he’s not held onto a mild forecast for that region since at least 2013-4 due I assume to having a cold bias/warm winter forecasts are bad for business. There are companies that are more objective and will not be afraid to go warm giving them much more credibility. 3. My bad due to poor wording. I don’t know what he forecasted for 2013-4. The only reason I referred to it is that the furthest back ones I can find only go back to 2014-5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 20 Author Share Posted March 20 7 hours ago, GaWx said: Anyone want to bet that Joe Bastardi won’t go 3+ F warmer than normal for the bulk of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England for his FINAL winter forecast for 2024-5? I’m not talking about any preliminary forecasts. I actually hope I’m wrong because I’d like to see him do it for a change for his final. I can’t tell you how long it has been since he did just that. One at the very least has to go back to 2013-4 for the final one to possibly be that warm. I actually don’t know what he had for 2013-4 or earlier because I can’t find them. WxBell started ~2010. His preliminary winter forecast for 2020-1 was ~+3 to +4 for the bulk of the Mid-Atlantic and much of the Ohio Valley (New England was +2 to +3): But then he cooled it way down for the final to mainly +0.5 to +1: that’s why I say wait until the final is released I hope he doesn’t, because if Joe Bastardi is calling for +3-4 AN, it’s gonna be +10 AN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 20 Author Share Posted March 20 There are already signs that La Niña is developing, the subsurface is currently -0.6 C and ENSO regions 1.2 and 3 are plummeting. Does the Niña developing this early give us some information about the likely strength next winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 1 hour ago, George001 said: There are already signs that La Niña is developing, the subsurface is currently -0.6 C and ENSO regions 1.2 and 3 are plummeting. Does the Niña developing this early give us some information about the likely strength next winter? Early peak and decay may give us a modoki nina, worst case scenario for the east if you like cold and snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 20 Author Share Posted March 20 21 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Early peak and decay may give us a modoki nina, worst case scenario for the east if you like cold and snow. Yeah that is definitely a concern. I don’t think it will stay east based, so I’m hoping for a basin wide solution rather than a modoki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 8 hours ago, Terpeast said: Early peak and decay may give us a modoki nina, worst case scenario for the east if you like cold and snow. Typical ENSO states don't apply People need to take that into consideration. Our old climate analogs no longer work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 The central-subsurface is cooling rapidly. https://ibb.co/SfXksss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 18 hours ago, George001 said: There are already signs that La Niña is developing, the subsurface is currently -0.6 C and ENSO regions 1.2 and 3 are plummeting. Does the Niña developing this early give us some information about the likely strength next winter? Coming from a strong el nino, this almost certainly means this upcoming winter is going to be a strong la nina. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 6 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Coming from a strong el nino, this almost certainly means this upcoming winter is going to be a strong la nina. I would think 1973-74 is the best early analog in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Just to give some visuals for down the road. I do find it interesting the central Pac seems to be still holding on to the warmth. It never really cooled down during the El Nino stretching back to just NE of Australia. Lets say it got to about average in some of the areas west of the dateline while directly NE of Australia dipped briefly to some negative values. Edit: may have to refresh page to get to go in motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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