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2024-2025 La Nina


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56 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

When there is a distinct absence of an ENSO signal, then solar and extra tropical forcings play a much bigger role than they normally would (i.e. 01-02)

Most of 2013-15 didn't really have an ENSO signal. The full-fledged el nino really started to develop in early 2015. So why were those winters blockbusters? Was it the +PDO?

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30 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Most of 2013-15 didn't really have an ENSO signal. The full-fledged el nino really started to develop in early 2015. So why were those winters blockbusters? Was it the +PDO?

It was absolutely the PDO, especially 14-15, when it was off the charts positive. Even though the PDO was technically negative for 13-14, the configuration basically mirrored a +PDO. Bluewave pointed that out about a month ago. That winter was classic +TNH

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On 8/17/2024 at 7:00 AM, bluewave said:

My observation with the two storms in late December 2022 was that it was another two cases of the south based -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge right before the storm. So the primary lows cut west of Boston and NYC. In the older days when the Southeast ridge was much weaker this could have been one to perhaps two snow events from NYC to Boston. So the main effect of the near record -AO that month was to hold the departures closer to average in the Northeast. If we had a more +AO instead then it could have been closer to  a +6.5 winter departure nearly as strong as 2001-2002. But the -AO in December held the departure  closer to +5 in NYC. 
 


 

IMG_0843.gif.f9d2bf4e4a2e52d1e1d3a385b80c8ffd.gif

IMG_0844.gif.c14c8521a5a3b65a67659bf446f77fe2.gif

 

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6…..-AO kept the departure lower 

…………..+4.8

I could def. see this December playing out similarly. 

That could have easily worked out for my area with a cleaner transfer, but I agree with you that its much harder for areas further south in that pattern now vs in the past.

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5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Okay, so next time a 2022-23 pattern comes along, I just have to hope for -AO in September then. This would mean a very warm October and November, but at least we'll get a decent winter.

That said, I don't like 2022-23 as an analog for this winter. That one was a ready made la nina that peaked early, dissipated during the winter, and had a warm subsurface. We have the opposite of that here. If I was using an analog year from that triple la nina group, I'd use 2020-21 instead (and even that one isn't the best).

2020 was near solar min...and you are weighting ONI too heavily...the atmosphere is going to respond in a manner that is reflective of a healthy la Nina. It won't be quite as strong as 2022, but that year is a good analog.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2020 was near solar min...and you are weighting ONI too heavily...the atmosphere is going to respond in a manner that is reflective of a healthy la Nina. It won't be quite as strong as 2022, but that year is a good analog.

Other than the -PDO, I really don't see the similarities with 2022. I've settled on 1998 and 2007 being the best fit years, with maybe 2016 as the 3rd analog. This is an el nino -> la nina transitioning year, with a very cold subsurface. I just can't get passed how far apart the subsurface pictures of 2022 and 2024 (it's almost as if they're anti-logs off each other): 

 

ta-eq_color.gif.0ff366844b810138f33ed7953e2f3a06.gif

ta-eq_color.gif.70e1286c82bb954b8b31dd3523ce55a2.gif

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On 8/16/2024 at 8:29 PM, George001 said:

I stand corrected. The east coast got screwed by the low running inland but like you said there are weenies living in the Midwest who got buried. I’m pretty sure the low that rain inland late Dec bringing 60 degree temps and flooding rains to the east coast gave areas like Chicago a blizzard.

The December 2022 cold snap was a few days of arctic cold, blowing snow and howling winds centered right around Christmas. The blizzard that was initially forecast was extremely underwhelming in terms of snowfall amounts, about 2 inches of sugary sand fell here but it was essentially a ground blizzard all day causing lots of drifts. Wind chills were around -30° here. A much calmer snowfall blanked a fresh 2.5" over the drifty snow on Christmas morning for a postcard Christmas scene. But no one really got buried. I think that was the storm that originally had a thread a ways out for a massive east coast blizzard.

 

FB_IMG_1723916181975.jpg

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Mesoscale lake-effect. Synoptic scale, that winter was awful

The December 2001 lake effect event was definitely how that winter climbed so high onto Buffalos snowy list, but there were still some good synoptic winter storms. A massive winter storm hit much of the country from Jan 29-Feb 2 with a crippling combo of ice and snow. And there were other storms in Feb/Mar as well. Definitely not a winter I'd like to repeat overall but it had some fun times. 

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2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The December 2001 lake effect event was definitely how that winter climbed so high onto Buffalos snowy list, but there were still some good synoptic winter storms. A massive winter storm hit much of the country from Jan 29-Feb 2 with a crippling combo of ice and snow. And there were other storms in Feb/Mar as well. Definitely not a winter I'd like to repeat overall but it had some fun times. 

Funnest time of that winter on the east coast was when it ended.

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12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Other than the -PDO, I really don't see the similarities with 2022. I've settled on 1998 and 2007 being the best fit years, with maybe 2016 as the 3rd analog. This is an el nino -> la nina transitioning year, with a very cold subsurface. I just can't get passed how far apart the subsurface pictures of 2022 and 2024 (it's almost as if they're anti-logs off each other): 

 

ta-eq_color.gif.0ff366844b810138f33ed7953e2f3a06.gif

ta-eq_color.gif.70e1286c82bb954b8b31dd3523ce55a2.gif

All you are basing that on is the ENSO subsurface....2022 is an ideal QBO analog, decent solar and very good extratropical Pacific analog.

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29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Your area is an exception bc of LES.

2013-2015 were easily my favorite back to back winters as well though, and lake effect was at a minimum with frozen lakes. 2013-14 defied the odds almost in its combination of persistent cold, snow & snowpack, easily earning the title of most severe winter on record. 2014-15 wasn't particularly snowy but it had the brutal cold and more deep snowpack.

 

I'd rank 2007-08 & 2008-09 as 2nd for favorite back to back winters.

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1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

2013-2015 were easily my favorite back to back winters as well though, and lake effect was at a minimum with frozen lakes. 2013-14 defied the odds almost in its combination of persistent cold, snow & snowpack, easily earning the title of most severe winter on record. 2014-15 wasn't particularly snowy but it had the brutal cold and more deep snowpack.

 

I'd rank 2007-08 & 2008-09 as 2nd for favorite back to back winters.

07-08 and 08-09 are my best back to back months of December.

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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Funnest time of that winter on the east coast was when it ended.

One memory I'll never forget was Jan 31, 2002. After 9.5" of snow followed by heavy freezing rain knocked out everyone's power (storm total precip around 3"), seeing the white landscape and crystal-draped trees against the night sky with zero light pollution. 

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On 8/12/2024 at 10:07 PM, raindancewx said:

The tropical Atlantic isn't really that warm right now, and seems to be cooling relative to averages. Waters by Indonesia aren't super warm either. Tropical Indian Ocean / Nino 4 are pretty warm - but I can't imagine the RONI thing will be of any use if the non-Nino global tropical oceans are moving toward neutral. Warmest oceans v. average temps right now are far North Atlantic, Med, and then by Japan. Beaches off NC are warmer than anywhere off West Africa by SSTs.

All the bullshit about this being some kind of incredible hot Summer for the entire country has magically vanished in recent days and weeks. I wonder why. Actually been pretty cool for a while in the middle third of the US. My guess is we're already seeing the dominant and recessive patterns for the winter. Pattern one is dominant heat West/East thirds of the continental US with cold waves of varying severity and duration in the middle third of the US. We've seen this in July/Aug at times. Pattern two is weaker cold in the Northern Plains and Northwest, with the rest of the US warm (see May/June). If September reverts to one of those two patterns, I think it's likely we continue to see those two patterns dominant in the cold season. CFS currently has average temps, perhaps implying weak cold, in the Northern Plains for September. A blend of the two gives a pretty conventional La Nina look, but the magic is figuring out if the cold in the Central US or the Northern Plains / NW is dominant. Actually think there is a decent case for highs off the NW / NE coasts to be stronger than normal, which would flood the Central US with frequent cold snaps in between warm rebounds, while the rest of the US is mostly warm all winter.

Screenshot-2024-08-12-8-58-03-PM

Starting to see signs of "pattern two" making a comeback in late August, for a time at least. Regardless, it's hard for me to imagine the Midwest having a cool fall this year, but we'll see.

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29 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

Starting to see signs of "pattern two" making a comeback in late August, for a time at least. Regardless, it's hard for me to imagine the Midwest having a cool fall this year, but we'll see.

I wouldn't imagine that either. But with nina, especially nino to nina climo, I was expecting a sweltering hot summer. But july and August have been very pleasant overall.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A decent chunk of geography get it though, you really can't predict winters in LES areas at all. Hard to predict snowfall in winter in any of the highlighted blue locations.

page-2-6.webp.742bdf6c2624c96cbc0daf2e3fc60993.webp

 

One of the great things about living in the Great Lakes is that whether it's a warm or cold winter snow, a good or a bad pattern, there's always the lakes to fall back on.

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A decent chunk of geography get it though, you really can't predict winters in LES areas at all. Hard to predict snowfall in winter in any of the highlighted blue locations.

page-2-6.webp.742bdf6c2624c96cbc0daf2e3fc60993.webp

 

22-23 was another case of Buffalo and Marquette having a top 5 snowiest season with a top 10 warmest winter. You guys pulled off the same feat in 01-02. Tough for stations away from the LES to have one of their snowiest winters when it is so warm relative to the means. Forecasting an overlap like that is outside the reach of seasonal forecasts. 
 

Time Series Summary for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1976-1977 199.4 0
2 2000-2001 158.7 0
3 1977-1978 154.3 0
4 1995-1996 141.4 11
5 2022-2023 133.6 0
6 1983-1984 132.5 0
7 2001-2002 132.4 0
8 2013-2014 130.3 0
9 1909-1910 126.4 0
10 1957-1958 124.7 0


 

Time Series Summary for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1931-1932 34.6 0
2 2023-2024 34.5 0
3 1889-1890 33.7 17
4 2015-2016 32.9 0
- 2001-2002 32.9 0
5 2011-2012 32.5 0
6 2022-2023 32.3 0
- 2016-2017 32.3 0
- 1997-1998 32.3 0
7 1879-1880 32.2 2
8 2019-2020 31.9 0
9 1948-1949 31.8 0
- 1881-1882 31.8 0
10 1952-1953 31.7 0


 

Time Series Summary for Marquette County Area, MI (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2001-2002 319.8 0
2 1996-1997 272.2 0
3 2000-2001 268.0 0
4 2022-2023 265.1 0
5 2008-2009 246.0 0
6 1995-1996 235.9 1
7 1989-1990 234.9 0
8 1981-1982 233.8 1
9 2006-2007 230.5 0
10 1984-1985 229.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for Marquette County Area, MI (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2023-2024 25.2 0
2 1997-1998 23.6 0
3 2001-2002 23.0 0
4 2011-2012 21.7 0
5 2015-2016 21.5 0
6 1982-1983 21.0 0
7 1986-1987 20.7 0
8 2022-2023 20.5 0
9 1994-1995 20.0 0
10 2016-2017 19.7 0
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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

22-23 was another case of Buffalo and Marquette having a top 5 snowiest season with a top 10 warmest winter. You guys pulled off the same feat in 01-02. Tough for stations away from the LES to have one of their snowiest winters when it is so warm relative to the means. Forecasting an overlap like that is outside the reach of seasonal forecasts. 
 

Time Series Summary for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1976-1977 199.4 0
2 2000-2001 158.7 0
3 1977-1978 154.3 0
4 1995-1996 141.4 11
5 2022-2023 133.6 0
6 1983-1984 132.5 0
7 2001-2002 132.4 0
8 2013-2014 130.3 0
9 1909-1910 126.4 0
10 1957-1958 124.7 0


 

Time Series Summary for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1931-1932 34.6 0
2 2023-2024 34.5 0
3 1889-1890 33.7 17
4 2015-2016 32.9 0
- 2001-2002 32.9 0
5 2011-2012 32.5 0
6 2022-2023 32.3 0
- 2016-2017 32.3 0
- 1997-1998 32.3 0
7 1879-1880 32.2 2
8 2019-2020 31.9 0
9 1948-1949 31.8 0
- 1881-1882 31.8 0
10 1952-1953 31.7 0


 

Time Series Summary for Marquette County Area, MI (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2001-2002 319.8 0
2 1996-1997 272.2 0
3 2000-2001 268.0 0
4 2022-2023 265.1 0
5 2008-2009 246.0 0
6 1995-1996 235.9 1
7 1989-1990 234.9 0
8 1981-1982 233.8 1
9 2006-2007 230.5 0
10 1984-1985 229.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for Marquette County Area, MI (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2023-2024 25.2 0
2 1997-1998 23.6 0
3 2001-2002 23.0 0
4 2011-2012 21.7 0
5 2015-2016 21.5 0
6 1982-1983 21.0 0
7 1986-1987 20.7 0
8 2022-2023 20.5 0
9 1994-1995 20.0 0
10 2016-2017 19.7 0

Speaking of 2001-02. Check out that snowfall total at Marquette.

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

22-23 was another case of Buffalo and Marquette having a top 5 snowiest season with a top 10 warmest winter. You guys pulled off the same feat in 01-02. Tough for stations away from the LES to have one of their snowiest winters when it is so warm relative to the means. Forecasting an overlap like that is outside the reach of seasonal forecasts. 
 

Time Series Summary for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1976-1977 199.4 0
2 2000-2001 158.7 0
3 1977-1978 154.3 0
4 1995-1996 141.4 11
5 2022-2023 133.6 0
6 1983-1984 132.5 0
7 2001-2002 132.4 0
8 2013-2014 130.3 0
9 1909-1910 126.4 0
10 1957-1958 124.7 0


 

Time Series Summary for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1931-1932 34.6 0
2 2023-2024 34.5 0
3 1889-1890 33.7 17
4 2015-2016 32.9 0
- 2001-2002 32.9 0
5 2011-2012 32.5 0
6 2022-2023 32.3 0
- 2016-2017 32.3 0
- 1997-1998 32.3 0
7 1879-1880 32.2 2
8 2019-2020 31.9 0
9 1948-1949 31.8 0
- 1881-1882 31.8 0
10 1952-1953 31.7 0


 

Time Series Summary for Marquette County Area, MI (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2001-2002 319.8 0
2 1996-1997 272.2 0
3 2000-2001 268.0 0
4 2022-2023 265.1 0
5 2008-2009 246.0 0
6 1995-1996 235.9 1
7 1989-1990 234.9 0
8 1981-1982 233.8 1
9 2006-2007 230.5 0
10 1984-1985 229.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for Marquette County Area, MI (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2023-2024 25.2 0
2 1997-1998 23.6 0
3 2001-2002 23.0 0
4 2011-2012 21.7 0
5 2015-2016 21.5 0
6 1982-1983 21.0 0
7 1986-1987 20.7 0
8 2022-2023 20.5 0
9 1994-1995 20.0 0
10 2016-2017 19.7 0

 The 4.6” snow of early Jan of 2002 was the heaviest single snowstorm at Atlanta since the 5.0” of Jan of 1992. Moreover, there hasn’t been one as heavy since!

 The Mar 1993 Storm of the Century was much heavier on the northside, however. I got ~7” then and areas further N in the burbs got much more.

 Although not as much snow, I’m pretty sure that the total 4.4” of Jan of 2011 was from heavier liquid equivalent because the tail end of that 4.4” was from sleet.

 There was heavier snow in mainly some N suburbs in Dec of 2018.

 Regardless, 2001-2 was a “snowy” year in Atlanta and in some other portions of the SE due to this one snow (if often takes only one due to our relatively low annual averages).

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9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Look at this +NAO (again)!

1C-9.gif

2024 has been the year of +NAO's. I think this is our 8th bout, after having a total of 3 in the last 4 years. 

The KB block was so strong in July that the +NAO vortex got pushed further SE than usual into NW Europe. It may also be related to the increased SAL over the tropical Atlantic this summer. 

IMG_0848.png.a9ee6b10667cd5cb3d0776d5b70464ec.png
 

IMG_0849.gif.16192661174e48c75bdab2d44a9e8d1e.gif

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12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

So why did 2008-09 work out and produce a decent winter, but not 2022-23? Was it a timing issue  or is there something more to it?

 At Atlanta, 2008-9 had no measurable snow til the heavy wet snow of March 1st that measured 4.2”. This put ATL at 200% of normal and was the heaviest snowstorm since the aforementioned Jan of 2002 4.4” snow. (Temperatures for that winter averaged near normal.)

 They had only 0.1” in 22-23 with a much warmer winter than 2008-9. ATL has had only 0.6” of snow since Jan of 2018!

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The KB block was so strong in July that the +NAO vortex got pushed further SE than usual into NW Europe. It may also be related to the increased SAL over the tropical Atlantic this summer. 

Another instance where typical climo of the past doesn't apply in a rapidly changing climate. 

Now I'm starting to doubt a hyperactive hurricane season. Ensembles are rather quiet rest of August 

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51 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Another instance where typical climo of the past doesn't apply in a rapidly changing climate. 

Now I'm starting to doubt a hyperactive hurricane season. Ensembles are rather quiet rest of August 

We’ll see what happens down the road. But in the meantime, 2024’s ACE of 51 as of Aug 17th is >triple the normal ACE for the active era for that date of 16 and is 3rd highest since 1951 behind only 2005 and 1980! Aug 17th ACE of 16 averages only 13% of total season mean ACE of 122 for 1991-2020. So, 2024 is well on its way to a potential 200ish hyperactive season. It may not make it and it looks to be quiet for at least a week once Ernesto goes extratropical but it sure has a good head start toward it. Quiet periods even near peak aren’t uncommon in active seasons.

https://cyclonicwx.com/climatology/

 

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