2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Mesoscale lake-effect. Synoptic scale, that winter was awful

Yea, LES is a cheat code.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Okay, so next time a 2022-23 pattern comes along, I just have to hope for -AO in September then. This would mean a very warm October and November, but at least we'll get a decent winter.

That said, I don't like 2022-23 as an analog for this winter. That one was a ready made la nina that peaked early, dissipated during the winter, and had a warm subsurface. We have the opposite of that here. If I was using an analog year from that triple la nina group, I'd use 2020-21 instead (and even that one isn't the best).

2020 was near solar min...and you are weighting ONI too heavily...the atmosphere is going to respond in a manner that is reflective of a healthy la Nina. It won't be quite as strong as 2022, but that year is a good analog.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2020 was near solar min...and you are weighting ONI too heavily...the atmosphere is going to respond in a manner that is reflective of a healthy la Nina. It won't be quite as strong as 2022, but that year is a good analog.

Other than the -PDO, I really don't see the similarities with 2022. I've settled on 1998 and 2007 being the best fit years, with maybe 2016 as the 3rd analog. This is an el nino -> la nina transitioning year, with a very cold subsurface. I just can't get passed how far apart the subsurface pictures of 2022 and 2024 (it's almost as if they're anti-logs off each other): 

 

[michsnowfreak]

On 8/16/2024 at 8:29 PM, George001 said:

I stand corrected. The east coast got screwed by the low running inland but like you said there are weenies living in the Midwest who got buried. I’m pretty sure the low that rain inland late Dec bringing 60 degree temps and flooding rains to the east coast gave areas like Chicago a blizzard.

The December 2022 cold snap was a few days of arctic cold, blowing snow and howling winds centered right around Christmas. The blizzard that was initially forecast was extremely underwhelming in terms of snowfall amounts, about 2 inches of sugary sand fell here but it was essentially a ground blizzard all day causing lots of drifts. Wind chills were around -30° here. A much calmer snowfall blanked a fresh 2.5" over the drifty snow on Christmas morning for a postcard Christmas scene. But no one really got buried. I think that was the storm that originally had a thread a ways out for a massive east coast blizzard.

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Mesoscale lake-effect. Synoptic scale, that winter was awful

The December 2001 lake effect event was definitely how that winter climbed so high onto Buffalos snowy list, but there were still some good synoptic winter storms. A massive winter storm hit much of the country from Jan 29-Feb 2 with a crippling combo of ice and snow. And there were other storms in Feb/Mar as well. Definitely not a winter I'd like to repeat overall but it had some fun times. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The December 2001 lake effect event was definitely how that winter climbed so high onto Buffalos snowy list, but there were still some good synoptic winter storms. A massive winter storm hit much of the country from Jan 29-Feb 2 with a crippling combo of ice and snow. And there were other storms in Feb/Mar as well. Definitely not a winter I'd like to repeat overall but it had some fun times. 

Funnest time of that winter on the east coast was when it ended.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Other than the -PDO, I really don't see the similarities with 2022. I've settled on 1998 and 2007 being the best fit years, with maybe 2016 as the 3rd analog. This is an el nino -> la nina transitioning year, with a very cold subsurface. I just can't get passed how far apart the subsurface pictures of 2022 and 2024 (it's almost as if they're anti-logs off each other): 

 

All you are basing that on is the ENSO subsurface....2022 is an ideal QBO analog, decent solar and very good extratropical Pacific analog.

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Your area is an exception bc of LES.

2013-2015 were easily my favorite back to back winters as well though, and lake effect was at a minimum with frozen lakes. 2013-14 defied the odds almost in its combination of persistent cold, snow & snowpack, easily earning the title of most severe winter on record. 2014-15 wasn't particularly snowy but it had the brutal cold and more deep snowpack.

 

I'd rank 2007-08 & 2008-09 as 2nd for favorite back to back winters.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

2013-2015 were easily my favorite back to back winters as well though, and lake effect was at a minimum with frozen lakes. 2013-14 defied the odds almost in its combination of persistent cold, snow & snowpack, easily earning the title of most severe winter on record. 2014-15 wasn't particularly snowy but it had the brutal cold and more deep snowpack.

 

I'd rank 2007-08 & 2008-09 as 2nd for favorite back to back winters.

07-08 and 08-09 are my best back to back months of December.

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Funnest time of that winter on the east coast was when it ended.

One memory I'll never forget was Jan 31, 2002. After 9.5" of snow followed by heavy freezing rain knocked out everyone's power (storm total precip around 3"), seeing the white landscape and crystal-draped trees against the night sky with zero light pollution. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2008-09 was essentially 2022-23 if it had panned out: 

[rainsucks]

On 8/12/2024 at 10:07 PM, raindancewx said:

The tropical Atlantic isn't really that warm right now, and seems to be cooling relative to averages. Waters by Indonesia aren't super warm either. Tropical Indian Ocean / Nino 4 are pretty warm - but I can't imagine the RONI thing will be of any use if the non-Nino global tropical oceans are moving toward neutral. Warmest oceans v. average temps right now are far North Atlantic, Med, and then by Japan. Beaches off NC are warmer than anywhere off West Africa by SSTs.

All the bullshit about this being some kind of incredible hot Summer for the entire country has magically vanished in recent days and weeks. I wonder why. Actually been pretty cool for a while in the middle third of the US. My guess is we're already seeing the dominant and recessive patterns for the winter. Pattern one is dominant heat West/East thirds of the continental US with cold waves of varying severity and duration in the middle third of the US. We've seen this in July/Aug at times. Pattern two is weaker cold in the Northern Plains and Northwest, with the rest of the US warm (see May/June). If September reverts to one of those two patterns, I think it's likely we continue to see those two patterns dominant in the cold season. CFS currently has average temps, perhaps implying weak cold, in the Northern Plains for September. A blend of the two gives a pretty conventional La Nina look, but the magic is figuring out if the cold in the Central US or the Northern Plains / NW is dominant. Actually think there is a decent case for highs off the NW / NE coasts to be stronger than normal, which would flood the Central US with frequent cold snaps in between warm rebounds, while the rest of the US is mostly warm all winter.

Starting to see signs of "pattern two" making a comeback in late August, for a time at least. Regardless, it's hard for me to imagine the Midwest having a cool fall this year, but we'll see.

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

Starting to see signs of "pattern two" making a comeback in late August, for a time at least. Regardless, it's hard for me to imagine the Midwest having a cool fall this year, but we'll see.

I wouldn't imagine that either. But with nina, especially nino to nina climo, I was expecting a sweltering hot summer. But july and August have been very pleasant overall.

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Your area is an exception bc of LES.

A decent chunk of geography get it though, you really can't predict winters in LES areas at all. Hard to predict snowfall in winter in any of the highlighted blue locations.

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A decent chunk of geography get it though, you really can't predict winters in LES areas at all. Hard to predict snowfall in winter in any of the highlighted blue locations.

 

One of the great things about living in the Great Lakes is that whether it's a warm or cold winter snow, a good or a bad pattern, there's always the lakes to fall back on.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A decent chunk of geography get it though, you really can't predict winters in LES areas at all. Hard to predict snowfall in winter in any of the highlighted blue locations.

 

22-23 was another case of Buffalo and Marquette having a top 5 snowiest season with a top 10 warmest winter. You guys pulled off the same feat in 01-02. Tough for stations away from the LES to have one of their snowiest winters when it is so warm relative to the means. Forecasting an overlap like that is outside the reach of seasonal forecasts. 
 

Time Series Summary for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1976-1977	199.4	0
2	2000-2001	158.7	0
3	1977-1978	154.3	0
4	1995-1996	141.4	11
5	2022-2023	133.6	0
6	1983-1984	132.5	0
7	2001-2002	132.4	0
8	2013-2014	130.3	0
9	1909-1910	126.4	0
10	1957-1958	124.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1931-1932	34.6	0
2	2023-2024	34.5	0
3	1889-1890	33.7	17
4	2015-2016	32.9	0
-	2001-2002	32.9	0
5	2011-2012	32.5	0
6	2022-2023	32.3	0
-	2016-2017	32.3	0
-	1997-1998	32.3	0
7	1879-1880	32.2	2
8	2019-2020	31.9	0
9	1948-1949	31.8	0
-	1881-1882	31.8	0
10	1952-1953	31.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for Marquette County Area, MI (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2001-2002	319.8	0
2	1996-1997	272.2	0
3	2000-2001	268.0	0
4	2022-2023	265.1	0
5	2008-2009	246.0	0
6	1995-1996	235.9	1
7	1989-1990	234.9	0
8	1981-1982	233.8	1
9	2006-2007	230.5	0
10	1984-1985	229.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for Marquette County Area, MI (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2023-2024	25.2	0
2	1997-1998	23.6	0
3	2001-2002	23.0	0
4	2011-2012	21.7	0
5	2015-2016	21.5	0
6	1982-1983	21.0	0
7	1986-1987	20.7	0
8	2022-2023	20.5	0
9	1994-1995	20.0	0
10	2016-2017	19.7	0

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Look at this +NAO (again)!

2024 has been the year of +NAO's. I think this is our 8th bout, after having a total of 3 in the last 4 years. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

22-23 was another case of Buffalo and Marquette having a top 5 snowiest season with a top 10 warmest winter. You guys pulled off the same feat in 01-02. Tough for stations away from the LES to have one of their snowiest winters when it is so warm relative to the means. Forecasting an overlap like that is outside the reach of seasonal forecasts. 
 

Time Series Summary for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1976-1977	199.4	0
2	2000-2001	158.7	0
3	1977-1978	154.3	0
4	1995-1996	141.4	11
5	2022-2023	133.6	0
6	1983-1984	132.5	0
7	2001-2002	132.4	0
8	2013-2014	130.3	0
9	1909-1910	126.4	0
10	1957-1958	124.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1931-1932	34.6	0
2	2023-2024	34.5	0
3	1889-1890	33.7	17
4	2015-2016	32.9	0
-	2001-2002	32.9	0
5	2011-2012	32.5	0
6	2022-2023	32.3	0
-	2016-2017	32.3	0
-	1997-1998	32.3	0
7	1879-1880	32.2	2
8	2019-2020	31.9	0
9	1948-1949	31.8	0
-	1881-1882	31.8	0
10	1952-1953	31.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for Marquette County Area, MI (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2001-2002	319.8	0
2	1996-1997	272.2	0
3	2000-2001	268.0	0
4	2022-2023	265.1	0
5	2008-2009	246.0	0
6	1995-1996	235.9	1
7	1989-1990	234.9	0
8	1981-1982	233.8	1
9	2006-2007	230.5	0
10	1984-1985	229.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for Marquette County Area, MI (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2023-2024	25.2	0
2	1997-1998	23.6	0
3	2001-2002	23.0	0
4	2011-2012	21.7	0
5	2015-2016	21.5	0
6	1982-1983	21.0	0
7	1986-1987	20.7	0
8	2022-2023	20.5	0
9	1994-1995	20.0	0
10	2016-2017	19.7	0

Speaking of 2001-02. Check out that snowfall total at Marquette.

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

22-23 was another case of Buffalo and Marquette having a top 5 snowiest season with a top 10 warmest winter. You guys pulled off the same feat in 01-02. Tough for stations away from the LES to have one of their snowiest winters when it is so warm relative to the means. Forecasting an overlap like that is outside the reach of seasonal forecasts. 
 

Time Series Summary for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1976-1977	199.4	0
2	2000-2001	158.7	0
3	1977-1978	154.3	0
4	1995-1996	141.4	11
5	2022-2023	133.6	0
6	1983-1984	132.5	0
7	2001-2002	132.4	0
8	2013-2014	130.3	0
9	1909-1910	126.4	0
10	1957-1958	124.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1931-1932	34.6	0
2	2023-2024	34.5	0
3	1889-1890	33.7	17
4	2015-2016	32.9	0
-	2001-2002	32.9	0
5	2011-2012	32.5	0
6	2022-2023	32.3	0
-	2016-2017	32.3	0
-	1997-1998	32.3	0
7	1879-1880	32.2	2
8	2019-2020	31.9	0
9	1948-1949	31.8	0
-	1881-1882	31.8	0
10	1952-1953	31.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for Marquette County Area, MI (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2001-2002	319.8	0
2	1996-1997	272.2	0
3	2000-2001	268.0	0
4	2022-2023	265.1	0
5	2008-2009	246.0	0
6	1995-1996	235.9	1
7	1989-1990	234.9	0
8	1981-1982	233.8	1
9	2006-2007	230.5	0
10	1984-1985	229.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for Marquette County Area, MI (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2023-2024	25.2	0
2	1997-1998	23.6	0
3	2001-2002	23.0	0
4	2011-2012	21.7	0
5	2015-2016	21.5	0
6	1982-1983	21.0	0
7	1986-1987	20.7	0
8	2022-2023	20.5	0
9	1994-1995	20.0	0
10	2016-2017	19.7	0

 The 4.6” snow of early Jan of 2002 was the heaviest single snowstorm at Atlanta since the 5.0” of Jan of 1992. Moreover, there hasn’t been one as heavy since!

 The Mar 1993 Storm of the Century was much heavier on the northside, however. I got ~7” then and areas further N in the burbs got much more.

 Although not as much snow, I’m pretty sure that the total 4.4” of Jan of 2011 was from heavier liquid equivalent because the tail end of that 4.4” was from sleet.

 There was heavier snow in mainly some N suburbs in Dec of 2018.

 Regardless, 2001-2 was a “snowy” year in Atlanta and in some other portions of the SE due to this one snow (if often takes only one due to our relatively low annual averages).

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Look at this +NAO (again)!

2024 has been the year of +NAO's. I think this is our 8th bout, after having a total of 3 in the last 4 years. 

The KB block was so strong in July that the +NAO vortex got pushed further SE than usual into NW Europe. It may also be related to the increased SAL over the tropical Atlantic this summer. 

 

[snowman19]

@Raindancewx Even if the ONI does in fact stay cold-neutral this winter, the atmosphere wants to be in La Niña mode. The MEI, OLR, AAM, tropical forcing/MJO are all solidly in Niña territory
 

 

 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

So why did 2008-09 work out and produce a decent winter, but not 2022-23? Was it a timing issue  or is there something more to it?

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

So why did 2008-09 work out and produce a decent winter, but not 2022-23? Was it a timing issue  or is there something more to it?

 At Atlanta, 2008-9 had no measurable snow til the heavy wet snow of March 1st that measured 4.2”. This put ATL at 200% of normal and was the heaviest snowstorm since the aforementioned Jan of 2002 4.4” snow. (Temperatures for that winter averaged near normal.)

 They had only 0.1” in 22-23 with a much warmer winter than 2008-9. ATL has had only 0.6” of snow since Jan of 2018!

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The KB block was so strong in July that the +NAO vortex got pushed further SE than usual into NW Europe. It may also be related to the increased SAL over the tropical Atlantic this summer. 

Another instance where typical climo of the past doesn't apply in a rapidly changing climate. 

Now I'm starting to doubt a hyperactive hurricane season. Ensembles are rather quiet rest of August 

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Another instance where typical climo of the past doesn't apply in a rapidly changing climate. 

Now I'm starting to doubt a hyperactive hurricane season. Ensembles are rather quiet rest of August 

We’ll see what happens down the road. But in the meantime, 2024’s ACE of 51 as of Aug 17th is >triple the normal ACE for the active era for that date of 16 and is 3rd highest since 1951 behind only 2005 and 1980! Aug 17th ACE of 16 averages only 13% of total season mean ACE of 122 for 1991-2020. So, 2024 is well on its way to a potential 200ish hyperactive season. It may not make it and it looks to be quiet for at least a week once Ernesto goes extratropical but it sure has a good head start toward it. Quiet periods even near peak aren’t uncommon in active seasons.

https://cyclonicwx.com/climatology/

 

[Terpeast]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see how things go once we reach the peak in September. With the slowdown after Ernesto the ACE should be less above average.  The average ACE by September 1st is 50. The 200+ ACE seasons since 1988 were usually around 100 by the start of September. But with hurricanes it only takes one hitting a populated area to have a big season. 
 

https://kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/index.html

 

All ensembles want to bring a wave of higher PWAT anomalies across the keys and northern Caribbean around Aug 23-24. Question is whether it organizes into a tropical low. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Raindancewx Even if the ONI does in fact stay cold-neutral this winter, the atmosphere wants to be in La Niña mode. The MEI, OLR, AAM, tropical forcing/MJO are all solidly in Niña territory
 

 

 

 

 

I wonder if the MEI has a cold bias since 2021-22.  It shows 2023-24 (a consensus strong el nino) with about the same strength as 2006-07 (a weak el nino). Also, 2021-22 and 2022-23 are shown as super la ninas, even though they were only moderate la ninas in the ONI.

But if we use the MEI, then 2007-08 is a perfect analog, lol.

[qg_omega]

No reason to not go warmest winter ever, Nina + -PDO = 4+5+6 all winter

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I wonder if the MEI has a cold bias since 2021-22.  It shows 2023-24 (a consensus strong el nino) with about the same strength as 2006-07 (a weak el nino). Also, 2021-22 and 2022-23 are shown as super la ninas, even though they were only moderate la ninas in the ONI.

But if we use the MEI, then 2007-08 is a perfect analog, lol.

The MEI shows how well the atmosphere is coupled to ENSO. Given the new data, I’m more confident than ever that even if we end up with a cold-neutral/La Nada ONI, the synoptic pattern won’t reflect that 

[snowman19]

*Take note*