2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, that pattern at the end of December could easily have produced a major storm. TPV just phased in over the Rockies… I would certainly roll the dice with that setup again

I know that Bluewave is going to come in and say it didn't work out because of the low heights out west due in part to the West Pac warm pool, but I think its a bit more nuanced than that....its more of an uphill battle than it was 50 years ago to be sure, but make no mistake about it....that still could have worked out and there was some bad luck involved, too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not my first choice, but I will roll the dice again with a set up similar to 2022-2023...especially where I am. Not so much significantly to my south...

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, that pattern at the end of December could easily have produced a major storm. TPV just phased in over the Rockies… I would certainly roll the dice with that setup again

Agreed. We were robbed there by something like the butterfly effect. I remember a few model runs showing foot-plus snows in the MA before we got rug pulled. 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is actually somewhat of a signal for late season SSW during La Nina/W QBO seasons...February and March.

I don’t disagree. My post you quoted lists 3 Niña W seasons with a major Feb-Mar SSW: 2/26/99, 3/20/00, and 2/16/23 vs 2 earlier in the winter (in Jan). So, this suggests there may be a modest lean toward late season vs earlier for Niña W. It also suggests there may be a slightly higher tendency to late major SSW during Niña W vs Nino W, which had only 2 of 5 during Feb-Mar.

 Nina E is similar to Niña W’s with 3 in Feb and 2 in Jan fwiw though none in March. The 3 in Feb were on 2/11, 2/12, and 2/24. So, Niña W’s late SSWs have averaged 2 weeks later than Niña E’s late ones fwiw.

 There have been 8 La Niña West winters during the period being analyzed. So, 3 of these 8 had a Feb or Mar major SSW, a respectable portion.

 Regardless of any tendency toward late vs earlier season major SSW during Niña W, Nino E has had more late. There have been 10 Nino E seasons during the analyzed period. Nino E has had 6 Feb-Mar major SSWs with two seasons having two: 

2/23/66, 2/29/80, 2/9/10, 3/24/10, 2/18/24, and 3/4/24

 So, if I’m ranking tendency toward a late season major SSW, I’d rank them this way from highest to lowest:

Nino E, Niña W, Niña E, Nino W

 

[FPizz]

Was 2010-11 a -pdo nina?  

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Was 2010-11 a -pdo nina?  

Yes (although not nearly as strong an -PDO as now) and it also had a +QBO like now, but it also had a very strong -AO/-NAO as well as low sunspots within 2 years after a solar min. Plus GW has been significant since.

[snowman19]

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Yes (although not nearly as strong an -PDO as now) and it also had a +QBO like now, but it also had a very strong -AO/-NAO as well as low sunspots within 2 years after a solar min. Plus GW has been significant since.

In addition, it was a weak +QBO and the AMO wasn’t ridiculously positive

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Started looking at the extra tropical pacific a bit today...everything considered, I really like 2022 as an analog....and as bad as that season was, it defenitely left something on the table for the east coast. December and March could have been significantly better.

The way the last week of April, and all of May and June were cold shows that the 2022-23 set-up can work. However, the pattern that came on in March needs to be in place 3-4 months earlier (in November or December) to work. The potential is there for snow with a cold January/February or February/March. We're not going to get snow with a cold May/June.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Look at how muted the PDO is here in this composite of Strong ENSO events, based around the region along the equator where the coldest waters usually are. 

Looking back, El Nino and -PDO was the easiest call ever last Winter (because they aren't necessarily that correlated).. the combo put the core ridge in N. America exactly where it happened. I think raindancewx has mentioned this in the past. 

PDO's will also feedback to more west-based events, historically. 

I have also seen some evidence that when subsurface ENSO waves don't translate to the surface, in +years time the PDO will match (-pdo to warm subsurface waves and +pdo to cold subsurface waves). That makes some sense, because the two things happen at matching longitudes. The data is also somewhat limited here. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thank you. But my apologies, I meant what does "minus" mean? They are still an analog just not as good of one? I used to think minus meant you wouldnt want to include it in a dataset lol.

Minus means "opposite". Since the satellite data goes back only 75 years, it gives more examples. You are basically looking at a core reading, and focusing also on the opposite reading over that area, and what it produced. Now averages may not always be perfect, so there is some lesser value in the method, but when you get both sides of a signal giving a strong roll forward, you know you have something with higher confidence than just the few matching examples. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Natural Gas is also really low right now.. lower even than last year.

Since 1995, these are the 5 matching years to what we have so far

The Winter H5 map is a really strong signal. 

2.12.. Last year at this time it was 2.5, and last year even qualifies as a top 5 lowest. If you think it's going to be a cold Winter buy up those Natural Gas Futures!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here are the 7 highest Natural Gas years since 1995

We are currently (August) #2 lowest, since 1995, behind only 1998 [98-99] (2.1 vs 1.8). But the Crude Oil/NG spread (which takes out things like inflation) is the lowest right now for August all-time. 

[George001]

7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, that pattern at the end of December could easily have produced a major storm. TPV just phased in over the Rockies… I would certainly roll the dice with that setup again

While there was definitely bad luck that EVERYONE got screwed, I don’t like that setup for my area due to the + anomalies from the blocking extending into New England. South based blocks are bad news.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

32 minutes ago, George001 said:

While there was definitely bad luck that EVERYONE got screwed, I don’t like that setup for my area due to the + anomalies from the blocking extending into New England. South based blocks are bad news.

Not everyone got screwed. The midwest got a good November/December and March/April out of this. Timing is what screwed it up on the East coast. When you break 2022-23 down into 2-month blocks, it gets very interesting. If only May/June was January/February instead.

 

 

 

[George001]

7 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Not everyone got screwed. The midwest got a good November/December and March/April out of this. Timing is what screwed it up on the East coast. When you break 2022-23 down into 2-month blocks, it gets very interesting. If only May/June was January/February instead.

 

 

 

I stand corrected. The east coast got screwed by the low running inland but like you said there are weenies living in the Midwest who got buried. I’m pretty sure the low that rain inland late Dec bringing 60 degree temps and flooding rains to the east coast gave areas like Chicago a blizzard.

[raindancewx]

We're heading into a pretty severe heat wave locally for late August. I've never really found much predictive in local June data for the upcoming winter. Wet Junes can be active in Oct/Nov, which ties in well with my idea for the cold season. But June doesn't matter for Dec-Feb. July was a bit warm but fairly average for temps/precip. August has the least temperature variation in absolute terms over the past 100 years. So when it is unusually hot or cold for the month I pay attention.

Hottest La Nina Augusts (Mean High): 1938, 1973, 1983, 1995, 2011, 2020

Hottest Augusts, with similar July 2024 (93.5F): 1973, 1983, 1995, 2011, 2020

Hottest Augusts, with similar June 2024 (92.5F): 2011, 2020

Need to see how August/September plays out locally. But I suspect this will go down as both a pretty hot Summer locally, and a pretty wet Summer. Unusual to get both in one year. 2010 had a completely different distribution of heat, but it was wet/hot.

2011 and 2020 both had major cold shots in September. September 2020 was a major preview of the late winter cold shot that destroyed Texas. My highs/lows for Sept 2020 - average high for Sept 9 is 84 or so.

2020-09-07	96	66	81.0	7.8	0	16	0.00	0.0	0
2020-09-08	80	42	61.0	-11.9	4	0	0.19	0.0	0
2020-09-09	47	40	43.5	-29.1	21	0	0.37	0.0	0
2020-09-10	55	42	48.5	-23.8	16	0	T	0.0	0

The first repeat showed up again October 2020 with the MJO cycle repeating. The airport had 4.4" of snow, although most of the city away from the airport had 5-10". All fell during a period when average highs are ~65F, and following multiple days in the 70s/80s.

2020-10-22	80	47	63.5	7.6	1	0	0.00	0.0	0
2020-10-23	73	46	59.5	4.1	5	0	0.00	0.0	0
2020-10-24	77	40	58.5	3.5	6	0	0.00	0.0	0
2020-10-25	73	38	55.5	0.9	9	0	0.00	0.0	0
2020-10-26	39	19	29.0	-25.2	36	0	0.16	2.9	0
2020-10-27	34	19	26.5	-27.3	38	0	0.06	1.3	4
2020-10-28	46	27	36.5	-16.9	28	0	0.02	0.2	1

December 2011 was also extremely cold locally.

2011-12-06	30	9	19.5	-18.8	45	0	T	T	0
2011-12-05	27	14	20.5	-18.1	44	0	0.02	1.0	1
2011-12-07	38	17	27.5	-10.6	37	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-25	36	17	26.5	-9.3	38	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-24	38	18	28.0	-7.9	37	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-04	37	26	31.5	-7.4	33	0	T	0.2	T
2011-12-03	39	26	32.5	-6.7	32	0	0.10	0.7	1
2011-12-23	36	23	29.5	-6.4	35	0	T	0.1	1
2011-12-26	43	16	29.5	-6.3	35	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-11	42	20	31.0	-6.2	34	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-08	45	19	32.0	-5.9	33	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-10	42	22	32.0	-5.4	33	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-12	36	28	32.0	-5.0	33	0	0.24	T	0
2011-12-02	40	30	35.0	-4.5	30	0	0.03	0.2	0
2011-12-20	38	26	32.0	-4.0	33	0	0.00	0.0	1
2011-12-21	41	23	32.0	-4.0	33	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-22	41	24	32.5	-3.4	32	0	0.01	0.7	0
2011-12-09	45	24	34.5	-3.1	30	0	0.00	0.0	0

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is the problem with La Nina though

Maybe the enhanced trades models are predicting will deepen the subsurface again, but without the SOI really catching up, it's possible that the deeply negative subsurface we saw before will not able to sustain itself through the Fall and Winter. 

[raindancewx]

One thing I've never seen on here is what is the response if the subsurface is completely neutral? Does everything just go more chaotic? Or maybe the PDO takes over? Or momentum from the prior pattern continues? I think the subsurface could be pretty dead-on neutral by mid-winter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Things like the PDO and NAO will probably be on top of the list of known drivers. 

The interesting thing is, the roll-forwards I have been doing never showed a La Nina map, except for maybe February, with the warmest Winter temp anomalies always being in the Midwest and Great Lakes. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The interesting thing is that the WPO does have a tendency to reverse to a slight -EPO signal. This is the wild card variable to a warmer Winter in the NE/Great Lakes. 

Dec-Jul 2023-24 was among the most +WPO times on record. 

This is 8 months before (notice the slight -epo)

And this is 8 months after

Before again-

So there is a little bit of a tendency for the +WPO to reverse for the cold season. This also goes along with with the slight -epo/+nao correlation that has been occurring since 2013. 

-EPO patterns last 7-12 days, so it's very possible that we will get some cold shots in the midst of a warmer Winter. 

[qg_omega]

Warmest winter ever looks increasingly likely 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

40 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

One thing I've never seen on here is what is the response if the subsurface is completely neutral? Does everything just go more chaotic? Or maybe the PDO takes over? Or momentum from the prior pattern continues? I think the subsurface could be pretty dead-on neutral by mid-winter.

It depends on the context, but the one thing you can rule out is the emergence of a strong/super el nino (these will only form if the subsurface has been warm for several years). If the prior pattern is a la nina, I'd think almost certainly the momentum from that pattern would continue into the following year. There are even some la ninas that continue when the subsurface turns warm. Although if an el nino somehow came from this, I'd think it would be weak because there is no warm water in the subsurface to support a full-fledged el nino.

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know that Bluewave is going to come in and say it didn't work out because of the low heights out west due in part to the West Pac warm pool, but I think its a bit more nuanced than that....its more of an uphill battle than it was 50 years ago to be sure, but make no mistake about it....that still could have worked out and there was some bad luck involved, too.

My observation with the two storms in late December 2022 was that it was another two cases of the south based -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge right before the storm. So the primary lows cut west of Boston and NYC. In the older days when the Southeast ridge was much weaker this could have been one to perhaps two snow events from NYC to Boston. So the main effect of the near record -AO that month was to hold the departures closer to average in the Northeast. If we had a more +AO instead then it could have been closer to  a +6.5 winter departure nearly as strong as 2001-2002. But the -AO in December held the departure  closer to +5 in NYC. 
 

 

 

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6…..-AO kept the departure lower 

…………..+4.8

[snowman19]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

We're heading into a pretty severe heat wave locally for late August. I've never really found much predictive in local June data for the upcoming winter. Wet Junes can be active in Oct/Nov, which ties in well with my idea for the cold season. But June doesn't matter for Dec-Feb. July was a bit warm but fairly average for temps/precip. August has the least temperature variation in absolute terms over the past 100 years. So when it is unusually hot or cold for the month I pay attention.

Hottest La Nina Augusts (Mean High): 1938, 1973, 1983, 1995, 2011, 2020

Hottest Augusts, with similar July 2024 (93.5F): 1973, 1983, 1995, 2011, 2020

Hottest Augusts, with similar June 2024 (92.5F): 2011, 2020

Need to see how August/September plays out locally. But I suspect this will go down as both a pretty hot Summer locally, and a pretty wet Summer. Unusual to get both in one year. 2010 had a completely different distribution of heat, but it was wet/hot.

2011 and 2020 both had major cold shots in September. September 2020 was a major preview of the late winter cold shot that destroyed Texas. My highs/lows for Sept 2020 - average high for Sept 9 is 84 or so.

2020-09-07	96	66	81.0	7.8	0	16	0.00	0.0	0
2020-09-08	80	42	61.0	-11.9	4	0	0.19	0.0	0
2020-09-09	47	40	43.5	-29.1	21	0	0.37	0.0	0
2020-09-10	55	42	48.5	-23.8	16	0	T	0.0	0

The first repeat showed up again October 2020 with the MJO cycle repeating. The airport had 4.4" of snow, although most of the city away from the airport had 5-10". All fell during a period when average highs are ~65F, and following multiple days in the 70s/80s.

2020-10-22	80	47	63.5	7.6	1	0	0.00	0.0	0
2020-10-23	73	46	59.5	4.1	5	0	0.00	0.0	0
2020-10-24	77	40	58.5	3.5	6	0	0.00	0.0	0
2020-10-25	73	38	55.5	0.9	9	0	0.00	0.0	0
2020-10-26	39	19	29.0	-25.2	36	0	0.16	2.9	0
2020-10-27	34	19	26.5	-27.3	38	0	0.06	1.3	4
2020-10-28	46	27	36.5	-16.9	28	0	0.02	0.2	1

December 2011 was also extremely cold locally.

2011-12-06	30	9	19.5	-18.8	45	0	T	T	0
2011-12-05	27	14	20.5	-18.1	44	0	0.02	1.0	1
2011-12-07	38	17	27.5	-10.6	37	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-25	36	17	26.5	-9.3	38	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-24	38	18	28.0	-7.9	37	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-04	37	26	31.5	-7.4	33	0	T	0.2	T
2011-12-03	39	26	32.5	-6.7	32	0	0.10	0.7	1
2011-12-23	36	23	29.5	-6.4	35	0	T	0.1	1
2011-12-26	43	16	29.5	-6.3	35	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-11	42	20	31.0	-6.2	34	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-08	45	19	32.0	-5.9	33	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-10	42	22	32.0	-5.4	33	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-12	36	28	32.0	-5.0	33	0	0.24	T	0
2011-12-02	40	30	35.0	-4.5	30	0	0.03	0.2	0
2011-12-20	38	26	32.0	-4.0	33	0	0.00	0.0	1
2011-12-21	41	23	32.0	-4.0	33	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-22	41	24	32.5	-3.4	32	0	0.01	0.7	0
2011-12-09	45	24	34.5	-3.1	30	0	0.00	0.0	0

I’m seeing 1983-84 popping up as an analog on twitter and I get why…people want the very cold December. There are major problems with it though, first and foremost it was +PDO, second, it was volcanic. I guess you can make the argument that we had the major eruptions back in April, however, this year is not on the level of a 1983 or a Pinatubo volcanic stratosphere 

[snowman19]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

One thing I've never seen on here is what is the response if the subsurface is completely neutral? Does everything just go more chaotic? Or maybe the PDO takes over? Or momentum from the prior pattern continues? I think the subsurface could be pretty dead-on neutral by mid-winter.

If this winter does go cold-neutral ENSO, then we are at the mercy of a very high solar flux/geomag, strong -PDO, -PMM, a relentless MJO in phases 4-6, -IOD, ++AMO/New Foundland warm pool, +QBO, low arctic sea ice, etc. I don’t see how that would end well….

[PhiEaglesfan712]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My observation with the two storms in late December 2022 was that it was another two cases of the south based -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge right before the storm. So the primary lows cut west of Boston and NYC. In the older days when the Southeast ridge was much weaker this could have been one to perhaps two snow events from NYC to Boston. So the main effect of the near record -AO that month was to hold the departures closer to average in the Northeast. If we had a more +AO instead then it could have been closer to  a +6.5 winter departure nearly as strong as 2001-2002. But the -AO in December held the departure  closer to +5 in NYC. 
 

 

 

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6…..-AO kept the departure lower 

…………..+4.8

Okay, so next time a 2022-23 pattern comes along, I just have to hope for -AO in September then. This would mean a very warm October and November, but at least we'll get a decent winter.

That said, I don't like 2022-23 as an analog for this winter. That one was a ready made la nina that peaked early, dissipated during the winter, and had a warm subsurface. We have the opposite of that here. If I was using an analog year from that triple la nina group, I'd use 2020-21 instead (and even that one isn't the best).

[BuffaloWeather]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If this winter does go cold-neutral ENSO, then we are at the mercy of a very high solar flux/geomag, strong -PDO, -PMM, a relentless MJO in phases 4-6, -IOD, ++AMO/New Foundland warm pool, +QBO, low arctic sea ice, etc. I don’t see how that would end well….

How much of an impact does the solar cycle have on actual weather here? 2013-2015 were the best back to back winters in my lifetime here and in the middle of a peak solar cycle.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

How much of an impact does the solar cycle have on actual weather here? 2013-2015 were the best back to back winters in my lifetime here and in the middle of a peak solar cycle.

When there is a distinct absence of an ENSO signal, then solar and extra tropical forcings play a much bigger role than they normally would (i.e. 01-02)

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

When there is a distinct absence of an ENSO signal, then solar and extra tropical forcings play a much bigger role than they normally would (i.e. 01-02)

01-02 was Buffalos 7th snowiest winter on record.