2024-2025 La Nina

[Stormchaserchuck1]

So.. we had a record N. American ridge December 2023 through August 3rd. 

I went through the entire dataset, and found 20 top analog, which matched the signal general:

Here's what they look like rolled-forward...

November:

December:

January:

February:
 

Nov-Feb Total:

The February map having +5-6F temps for 20 analogs (+ and -), 20/75 of the whole dataset is pretty strong. You can see the progression into a SE ridge historically. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 8/13/2024 at 7:24 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't agree with that....its reversed. A canonical El Nino is east based, as the WWB pile the warmest anomalies into the eastern zones, but in a mature La Nina, the easterly trades push them west.

Yeah, peak cold waters are at 125W to 100W.. so that's where I would say the target area would be. 

La Nina is a cold weather pattern.

-PDO is a warm weather pattern.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Fall 2024 temperature outlook:

Winter 2024-25 temperature outlook:

 

Spring 2025 temperature outlook:

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

So.. we had a record N. American ridge December 2023 through August 3rd. 

I went through the entire dataset, and found 20 top analog, which matched the signal general:

Here's what they look like rolled-forward...

November:

December:

January:

February:
 

Nov-Feb Total:

The February map having +5-6F temps for 20 analogs (+ and -), 20/75 of the whole dataset is pretty strong. You can see the progression into a SE ridge historically. 

That’s a very strong signal and it goes right into March too. Also, no semblance at all of “east-based” Niña forcing, not that this event was ever projected to be one anyway

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, peak cold waters are at 125W to 100W.. so that's where I would say the target area would be. 

La Nina is a cold weather pattern.

-PDO is a warm weather pattern.

The issue with using 1983-84 is that was a volcanic winter, very volcanic stratosphere. That said and this has been discussed here, does the cumulative VEI 5 Ruang eruptions we had back in April have any effects on the stratosphere? Those were traditional sulfate aerosol eruptions and they reached the stratosphere. Obviously they weren’t a Pinatubo or a 1983. My guess is that they have “some” effect and magnify the La Niña/+QBO/high solar effects on the stratosphere this winter 

Edit: 83-84 was also a +PDO winter. IMO should not be used as an analog 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

This is the absolute worst set of la ninas you can use for this upcoming winter, but if you ever have a +PDO la nina winter, here is the analog: 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Ernesto may come too close for comfort to New England/Atlantic Canada:

 

It really won't be very close and is not at all compelling.

[snowman19]

It really won't be very close and is not at all comelling.

Yea and I wonder if this throws a monkey wrench into the rest of this season:

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

So.. we had a record N. American ridge December 2023 through August 3rd. 

I went through the entire dataset, and found 20 top analog, which matched the signal general:

Here's what they look like rolled-forward...

November:

December:

January:

February:
 

Nov-Feb Total:

The February map having +5-6F temps for 20 analogs (+ and -), 20/75 of the whole dataset is pretty strong. You can see the progression into a SE ridge historically. 

Suprise, suprise, the composite rolled forward sucks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea and I wonder if this throws a monkey wrench into the rest of this season:

 

 

 

 

I can't stand when people try to chase pots of gold at the end of rainbow as tropical systems execute a parabolic recurve underneath SNE......the notion that it may not miss is the largest fraudulent illusion in all of meteorology in the absence of a mechanism to capture and pull it north.  I kind of liken i to weenies holding out hope that a bit more radiational cooling than forecast will buy them more snow as a major low cuts to their west the next day.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Interesting 1999 is on that list, as that is one of my top analogs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

At least we have this....pretty good winer composite right there.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At least we have this....pretty good winer composite right there.

1995 on that list ought to get Snowman boiling mad!

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

1995 on that list ought to get Snowman boiling mad!

Done getting accused of BS on this forum. Not posting here anymore. Not worth the headache or the accusations. I’m out

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Done getting accused of BS on this forum. Not posting here anymore. Not worth the headache or the accusations. I’m out

I'm pretty sure that was light-hearted, man....

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Done getting accused of BS on this forum. Not posting here anymore. Not worth the headache or the accusations. I’m out

You’ll be back. See you soon

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I just took a look at those seasons. 1966 perfectly fits the definition of a skew season. This is one where the strongest storm (Inez) and 2nd strongest (Faith) ate up all the ACE, lol.

1968 was a tame season. All 3 of the hurricanes were category 1's. Not to mention, we had a long lull from mid-June to mid-August with no storms, and there were no major hurricanes. Then again, this was a developing el nino season, one that reached moderate strength.

1995 and 2005 have been discussed ad nauseum. 2005 is the mother of all seasons. That one was already hyperactive at this point, as we were already on 'I' (with Irene). We're not going to reach any of those benchmarks this season, lol. (We could reach the 1995 marks, though.)

[mitchnick]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm pretty sure that was light-hearted, man....

I thought it was obvious with all his bashing of X posters using it as an analog. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I thought it was obvious with all his bashing of X posters using it as an analog. 

Must be having a bad day...maybe triggered by the relase of the Farmer's Almanac?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Winter peaking moderate vs. strong vs. super el nino composites.

Moderate el ninos (this seeems like the sweet spot, if you want a cold and snowy winter): 

Strong el ninos (hit or miss, for every 1957-58 and 2009-10, there's a 2023-24): 

Super el ninos (SOL, unless you get that big storm like 1983 and 2016): 

 

[rclab]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Done getting accused of BS on this forum. Not posting here anymore. Not worth the headache or the accusations. I’m out

Good morning S19. I’ve thought of you as a conscience that would often help keep our cold season optimism in check. And all you’ve done is use the facts of the atmosphere to temper our dreams with cautious reality. You are shoulder to shoulder with other well versed members and professionals in our forum. As such you may be a target. For those of us who benefit from the discourse, please, please stand firm above it and continue to post. Stay well and thank you for what you’ve contributed. As always …

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Moderate vs. Strong la nina composites.

Moderate la nina: 

Moderates without 84-85 and 95-96 (could be a good analog for this upcoming winter):

Strong la nina:

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I just took a look at those seasons. 1966 perfectly fits the definition of a skew season. This is one where the strongest storm (Inez) and 2nd strongest (Faith) ate up all the ACE, lol.

1968 was a tame season. All 3 of the hurricanes were category 1's. Not to mention, we had a long lull from mid-June to mid-August with no storms, and there were no major hurricanes. Then again, this was a developing el nino season, one that reached moderate strength.

1995 and 2005 have been discussed ad nauseum. 2005 is the mother of all seasons. That one was already hyperactive at this point, as we were already on 'I' (with Irene). We're not going to reach any of those benchmarks this season, lol. (We could reach the 1995 marks, though.)

1. Yes, 1966 was one of the most skewed of active (ACE of 140+) FULL seasons with ~61% of the 15 storm ACE from just Inez and Faith. However, we don’t yet know how skewed, if at all, 2024 will turn out since the vast majority of the season is still ahead of us ACE climowise (85%). If 2024 ends up near 200, Beryl and Ernesto combined would have no more than 25-30%. And what would the significance of skewed even mean, if anything, if it were to occur?

2. I agree that 1968 can’t reasonably be used as an analog.

3. Yeah, I agree that 2024 is not headed for being another 2005.

4. 1995-6 isn’t a good analog at all due to it having had a +PDO vs the projected strong -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave, it being near solar min vs 2024-25 near max, the strong early winter -AO/-NAO of 1995-6 vs +AO/+NAO expected for 2024-5, and the significant amount of GW since 1995-6.

edit: 1995-6 QBO was slightly E vs projected W of 2024-5.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. Yes, 1966 was one of the most skewed of active (ACE of 140+) FULL seasons with ~61% of the 15 storm ACE from just Inez and Faith. However, we don’t yet know how skewed, if at all, 2024 will turn out since the vast majority of the season is still ahead of us ACE climowise (85%). If 2024 ends up near 200, Beryl and Debby combined would have no more than 25-30%. And what would be the significance of skewed mean, if anything, if it were to occur?

2. I agree that 1968 can’t reasonably be used as an analog.

3. Yeah, I agree that 2024 is not headed for being another 2005.

4. 1995-6 isn’t a good analog at all due to it having had a +PDO vs the projected strong -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave, it being near solar min vs 2024-25 near max, the strong early winter -AO/-NAO of 1995-6 vs +AO/+NAO expected for 2024-5, and the significant amount of GW since 1995-6.

edit: 5. 1995-6 QBO was slightly E vs projected W of 2024-5.

I really wasn't suggesting that they were viable winter analogs....just an anecdotal, "hey btw"...that said, I think its more difficult to predict a bottom-feeder snowfall season if that ACE gets over about 200 or so.

[michsnowfreak]

17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

So.. we had a record N. American ridge December 2023 through August 3rd. 

I went through the entire dataset, and found 20 top analog, which matched the signal general:

Here's what they look like rolled-forward...

November:

December:

January:

February:
 

Nov-Feb Total:

The February map having +5-6F temps for 20 analogs (+ and -), 20/75 of the whole dataset is pretty strong. You can see the progression into a SE ridge historically. 

What are the minus analogs?

[michsnowfreak]

On 8/14/2024 at 12:08 PM, bluewave said:

Yeah, your area has had more to work with from the La Ninas in general since 16-17. The record breaking Aleutian ridge has prevented the UL from parking over Alaska like it did in 11-12 and 01-02. So the trough setting up over Western North America gives you more leeway. But it’s much more challenging for the Northeast especially near the immediate coast. 
 

Even in 01-02 we had some good storms. 11-12 was definitely the dud, but still had multiple snowfalls.

Ninas in general are favorable here. They dont all work out great, but youd want a Nina over Nino any day in this area.

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Even in 01-02 we had some good storms. 11-12 was definitely the dud, but still had multiple snowfalls.

Ninas in general are favorable here. They dont all work out great, but youd want a Nina over Nino any day in this area.

I prefer Ninas here too. SE ridge and big blocking leads to the massive LES events we get here.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

What are the minus analogs?

1959 (59-60)

1963 (63-64)

1965 (65-66)

1978 (78-79)

1994 (94-95)

1996 (96-97)

2003 (03-04)

2004 (04-05)

2009 (09-10)

2014 (14-15)

[George001]

I hope Snowman comes back. Say what you want about him, but the guy knows his shit and backs up all his claims. Despite being a big snow weenie myself I can appreciate a logically sound argument in favor of a mild winter. Frankly it’s bullshit that he ever was post limited to begin with. That should be restricted to low IQ posters who spout unscientific bullshit. 

[roardog]

34 minutes ago, George001 said:

I hope Snowman comes back. Say what you want about him, but the guy knows his shit and backs up all his claims. Despite being a big snow weenie myself I can appreciate a logically sound argument in favor of a mild winter. Frankly it’s bullshit that he ever was post limited to begin with. That should be restricted to low IQ posters who spout unscientific bullshit. 

He’s actually banned from the mid Atlantic forum. It is too bad he has the post limit. I also hope he keeps posting here. He seems like a good guy but I can see how he could be annoying in the lead up to a storm. That’s probably how he ended up with the post limit and ban from the mid Atlantic forum.