2024-2025 La Nina

[michsnowfreak]

On 8/11/2024 at 10:30 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Look at my link. .its in there

Thanks! Excellent read. Its really interesting to me, maybe just not enough sample size, but the composites locally of a weak or strong La Nina yield above avg snow, while a moderate yields below avg (not terribly so, but still its far different than the very straightforward climo of Ninos with weak (good), moderate (ok), strong (bad)).

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thanks! Excellent read. Its really interesting to me, maybe just not enough sample size, but the composites locally of a weak or strong La Nina yield above avg snow, while a moderate yields below avg (not terribly so, but still its far different than the very straightforward climo of Ninos with weak (good), moderate (ok), strong (bad)).

I think that is it....the moderate composite also appears warmer than the strong because we have 2011-2012 in the modertate group and 2010-2011 in the strong.

[snowman19]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that is it....the moderate composite also appears warmer than the strong because we have 2011-2012 in the modertate group and 2010-2011 in the strong.

I think given the updated MEI, the twitter crowd can stop denying that the atmosphere is solidly into a La Niña state, there’s more to it than SSTs

[michsnowfreak]

On 8/12/2024 at 7:49 AM, mitchnick said:

I think Michsnowfreak will be putting all of us in tears this year. AN precip is a near guarantee for him with BN temps a better than even bet. 

Hopefully, I can scratch out at least 20", which would only be 2/3 of average. 20/21 was the last year time at or AN here.

Haha thank you for your confidence, but we all know how the weather works, no guarantees. The composite maps from CPC are actually too good right now, they would imply a storm track just to our east loading us up with lots of snow as the warmth stays east and the cold to our north and northwest is ample. But a composite map rarely will pan out.

What I like about this winter- A very strong early model signal for AN precip, and combine that with Nina climo and increasingly wetter/snowier winters the past several decades, I expect "average precip" to be the low bar. We also tend to have more wiggle room for an average snow season regardless of temps. After our mega snow blitz from 2007-15, we have been fairly average-ish in the snow department. The only standout winters since 2016 were 2017-18 (snowy at 61.0") and 2023-24 (low snow at 23.5"). Last winter was the first significantly below average snow season since 2011-12, and that low season was sandwiched in by heavy snow winters before and after. ENSO and all other factors aside, its very common for us to have a snowy winter after a sub-25" winter.

What I dont like about this winter- Definitely like more than I dont like, but one thing that always worries me is the usual Nina rollercoaster. They can be some of the most up and down winters we see, so I really dont expect a great snowpack season. In the unlikely event timing is always bad, we could waste a lot of storms on rain and bad tracks to our west, surviving mostly on wraparound, lake effect, and clippers. And of course the pacific worries of the past many years come to mind. We actually get treated to some good dynamic wet snowstorms/thundersnows in those patterns usually, but I can kiss a lot of snowcover goodbye.

Bottom line- If the anamalous cold to the north and warm to the south pans out, I fully expect some great winter storms somewhere in the midwest & Great Lakes, along with some arctic outbreaks flirting with record cold and some torches flirting with record warmth at some point during the season.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Composite of the ONI moderate la nina years (updated to include the 2020-23 triple la nina): 

[michsnowfreak]

18 hours ago, roardog said:

From here in the Great Lakes over to New England, there are generally two ways to get a very warm winter in a Nina. 
1. 22-23 style where you have arctic air coming into Canada but it’s dumping into the western half of the US because the pattern is so amplified. This gives us a lot of warm but dreary days since we are constantly getting warm and moist air masses coming from the southern US. 
2. 01-02/11-12 style where there’s a massive vortex around Alaska which doesn’t allow any Arctic air to move into the southern half of Canada therefore keeping the entire US outside of Alaska warm. This is generally a more pleasant winter warmth here as it usually has less moisture/stratus around. 
  I know studies have been done that show an active sun can lead to a lesser chance of high latitude blocking but I’m not totally convinced it was solely to blame for the massive Alaskan vortex in the 01-02 winter. I think it was used as a convenient excuse for blown forecasts that winter. 

Great analysis. Do you see either of those coming into play? 

We had some good storms in 01-02 & 22-23, but definitely not fun winters overall.

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Based on model/NHC progs and considering how warm the SSTs are way up above Bermuda, it is a reasonable possibility that Ernesto could bring 2024 season to date ACE to ~65 as of Aug 20th. If 2024 is at 65 then, it would still be in 6th place, just one back of the 5th place as of Aug 8th:

 As of Aug 8th, 2024 was at 41. That was in 5th behind only 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42).

 If 2024 has 65 as of Aug 20th, it appears it would then still be in 6th behind only 2005 (~85), 1933 (~80), 1899 (~77), 1886 (~75), and 1893 (67).

 One would think that keeping this in mind would stop any season cancel declarations.

Projected Aug 20 ACE W of 60W: 2024 could rank as high as 5th if total ACE gets to 65

1) 2005: 78 of 85 (92%)
2) 1886: 69 of 75 (92%)
3) 1899: 69 of 77 (90%)
4) 1933: 63 of 80 (79%)
5) 2024: 55 of 65 (85%)

1893 is way back with only 41 of 67 (61%) W of 60W

[michsnowfreak]

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

While the Northeast has had a record breaking 9 consecutive warmer to record warm winters since 15-16, we still haven’t had a departure yet rivaling the magnitude of 2001-2002 or 1931-1932. Those were the 2 most anomalous warm departure winters relative to their 30 year averages. So at least we haven’t had a winter since 15-16 with a departure over +7.0 yet. As the winters continue to warm so do the 30 year averages. If we ever got a repeat of 01-02 or 31-32 departures in this much warmer climate, then it would be the first winter in the Northeast to average above freezing. I used dense rank sorting for the top 10 warmest Northeast winters by temperature rankings below.

#1…..2023-2024…..31.3°……+5.5

#2….2001-2002…..31.2°…….+7.1

#3….2022-2023…..30.7°……+4.9

……..2015-2016……30.7°…….+5.8

#4….2011-2012……30.0°……..+5.9

#5…..1997-1998…..29.6°……..+6.8

#6…..2016-2017…..29.5°……..+4.6

………1931-1932……29.5°……..+7.4

#7…..2019-2020…..28.9°……..+4.0

#8…..1932-1933…..28.4°………+6.3

#9…..1998-1999……28.2°……..+5.4

……….1948-1949…..28.2°………+5.3

#10….1952-1953……28.1°………..+4.8

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/regional/time-series/101/tavg/3/2/1895-2024?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2000

1931-32 remains the warmest winter on record in many locations of the midwest and Ohio Valley. At Detroit it remains #2, behind 1881-82. So while 2023-24 was the warmest modern day winter, it ranks 4th overall, behind 1881-82, 1931-32, & 1889-90. The climate was colder in the 1800s but there were some wild warm winters thrown in. Then 1931-32 was kind of like the welcome to a three decade surge peppered in with many mild winters (tho none could come close to 31-32).

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Individual moderate la nina events.

1949-50 (Yes, this was east-based): 

1970-71 (possibly east based): 

1984-85 (possibly east based): 

1995-96: 

2011-12: 

2020-21: 

2021-22 (Yes, this is east based): 

2022-23: 

[GaWx]

 By the way, having 65 ACE as of 8/20 would be vs a 1991-2020 avg of only 18.9:

 

 If we get 24 ACE during 8/13-20, that would be vs a 1991-2020 avg of a mere 6! So, that would be 4 times the average of a very active era.

[roardog]

31 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Great analysis. Do you see either of those coming into play? 

We had some good storms in 01-02 & 22-23, but definitely not fun winters overall.

When you look at it, 22-23 wasn’t that far from being a good winter here. If the western trough/eastern ridge would have been just a little less amplified, the cold air would have certainly oozed into our region since it was available in Canada most of the winter and the storm tracks would have been more SE. I actually had a lot of snow on the ground at the end of that winter because late February brought a couple of big snows back to back. At least with that type of pattern there is hope with cold nearby. Those super/strong Nino patterns like last winter offer no hope since Canada is blow torched. 
   The 01-02 type winters that have the massive Alaskan vortex don’t seem to happen too often thankfully, at least not to that extent. 

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 By the way, having 65 ACE as of 8/20 would be vs a 1991-2020 avg of only 18.9:

 

 If we get 24 ACE during 8/13-20, that would be vs a 1991-2020 avg of a mere 6! So, that would be 4 times the average of a very active period.

I've never done any ACE research, but does a 1 or 2 storm skewing high make a difference than a lot of smaller/moderate storms, if you know?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I've never done any ACE research, but does a 1 or 2 storm skewing high make a difference than a lot of smaller/moderate storms, if you know?

Not really. Dean and Felix didn't prevent 2007 from being a very low ACE season total, despite that year doing close to the climatological normals numberwise (15/6/2).

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I've never done any ACE research, but does a 1 or 2 storm skewing high make a difference than a lot of smaller/moderate storms, if you know?

Good question. I have no idea. Here’s the level of early season skew vs that for the other very active early seasons:

2024 projected ACE thru 8/20: very skewed with 59 of 65 (91%) of ACE from 2 of 5 storms

2005: Dennis ~15; Emily ~29; so, 44 ACE between those 2 out of 85 ACE from first 9 storms; that’s not that skewed early

1933: not skewed early

1899: 60 of 69 ACE (87%) from 1 of 3; only of these seasons with a comparable early season skew to 2024

1886: not skewed early

1893: not skewed early

 So, 1899 is the only other highly skewed early on of the early very active seasons. But we don’t know how 2024 will end up skew-wise. I’m expecting still ~135 more ACE after Ernesto. If that’s well spread out, the season as a whole wouldn’t end up that skewed.

 By the way, 1899 for the season as a whole ended up highly skewed with ~106 (70%) of its entire season’s ACE of 151 from just 2 storms out of 10 total!

 

 

[GaWx]

On 8/13/2024 at 11:46 AM, mitchnick said:

I've never done any ACE research, but does a 1 or 2 storm skewing high make a difference than a lot of smaller/moderate storms, if you know?

Here are the 5 most skewed I could find for the full season of the active seasons (140+ ACE):

2021’s full season 146 ACE: ~59% of that (~86) from just 2 of the 21 storms!

2003’s full season 176 ACE: ~60% of that (~105) from just 2 of the 16 storms!

1966’s full season 145 ACE: ~61% of that (~88) from just 2 of the 15 storms

1899’s full season 151 ACE: ~70% of that (106) from just 2 of the 10 storms

1980’s full season 149 ACE: ~58% of that (~87) from just 2 of the 11 storms

2016’s full season 141 ACE: ~64% of that (~90) from just 3 of the 15 storms

 

Edit: If Ernesto ends up with 24, that would mean 59 from just 2. But if 2024 ends up with ~200 ACE, the ACE from those two would be only ~30% of the total.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

When you look at it, 22-23 wasn’t that far from being a good winter here. If the western trough/eastern ridge would have been just a little less amplified, the cold air would have certainly oozed into our region since it was available in Canada most of the winter and the storm tracks would have been more SE. I actually had a lot of snow on the ground at the end of that winter because late February brought a couple of big snows back to back. At least with that type of pattern there is hope with cold nearby. Those super/strong Nino patterns like last winter offer no hope since Canada is blow torched. 
   The 01-02 type winters that have the massive Alaskan vortex don’t seem to happen too often thankfully, at least not to that extent. 

I feel like 22-23 would have been more cold and snowy in the East Coast if the set-up was in place a few months earlier. We got the cold, but it was in late April through June. Imagine if the pattern was 3 months earlier.

This is the late April rainstorm we got. Imagine if it was in late January, the heart of winter:

2023-04-26	64	43	53.5	-4.9	11	0	0.06
2023-04-27	61	49	55.0	-3.7	10	0	0.05
2023-04-28	56	49	52.5	-6.5	12	0	1.33
2023-04-29	61	49	55.0	-4.4	10	0	0.63
2023-04-30	63	52	57.5	-2.2	7	0	1.51

Or if this happened in March, instead of June:

2023-06-14	77	63	70.0	-3.2	0	5	0.17
2023-06-15	79	59	69.0	-4.6	0	4	0.00
2023-06-16	73	61	67.0	-6.9	0	2	1.04

 

Of if the record cold summer soltice happened on the vernal equinox instead:

2023-06-21	66	59	62.5	-12.9	2	0	0.18
2023-06-22	68	59	63.5	-12.1	1	0	T
2023-06-23	73	63	68.0	-7.9	0	3	0.56
2023-06-24	82	69	75.5	-0.7	0	11	0.02
2023-06-25	87	68	77.5	1.1	0	13	0.09
2023-06-26	87	67	77.0	0.4	0	12	0.51
2023-06-27	84	66	75.0	-1.9	0	10	1.07

 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that is it....the moderate composite also appears warmer than the strong because we have 2011-2012 in the modertate group and 2010-2011 in the strong.

I know you don’t think it is, but I think solar and geomag alone completely eliminate 10-11 as an analog. And as far as the usual clowns on twitter trying to say 95-96 is an analog, that’s even more laughable, solar, QBO, PDO, PMM, AGW, etc, etc., and on and on, don’t match at all but let’s wishcast it as an analog anyway 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

RONI got a shout out from Noll haha

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I know you don’t think it is, but I think solar and geomag alone completely eliminate 10-11 as an analog. And as far as the usual clowns on twitter trying to say 95-96 is an analog, that’s even more laughable, solar, QBO, PDO, PMM, AGW, etc, etc., and on and on, don’t match at all but let’s wishcast it as an analog anyway 

2010 did not even make the cut for me as a polar analog. 

[snowman19]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2010 did not even make the cut for me as a polar analog. 

Agree and another issue with 95-96 was the IOD. That was an extremely unusual +IOD/Nina. It altered the normal Nina MJO progression and lead to it going phases 8-1-2 largely avoiding 4-6

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agree and another issue with 95-96 was the IOD. That was an extremely unusual +IOD/Nina. It altered the normal Nina MJO progression and lead to it going phases 8-1-2 largely avoiding 4-6

It was La Nina that acted like El Nino....inverse of last season.

2010 I will at least entertain the conversation because of the magnitude of the ENSO, however, I won't even acknowledge 1995. Just a complete opposite hemispheric pattern in every respect with the exception of La Niina.

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was La Nina that acted like El Nino....inverse of last season.

2010 I will at least entertain the conversation because of the magnitude of the ENSO, however, I won't even acknowledge 1995. Just a complete opposite hemispheric pattern in ever respect with the exception of La Niina.

Correct and Bluewave mentioned how it was also the very 1st year of the start of the +AMO cycle

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Correct and Bluewave mentioned how it was also the very 1st year of the start of the +AMO cycle

Combo of +IOD La Nina coming out of an El Nino with the onset of the +AMO near solar min was a perfect storm. 

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Combo of +IOD La Nina coming out of an El Nino with the onset of the +AMO near solar min was a perfect storm. 

+PDO, -QBO too. Everything about that winter was perfect

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

+PDO, -QBO too. Everything about that winter was perfect

Yea, I think that was related to the +IOD and El Nino hangover.

[michsnowfreak]

22 hours ago, roardog said:

When you look at it, 22-23 wasn’t that far from being a good winter here. If the western trough/eastern ridge would have been just a little less amplified, the cold air would have certainly oozed into our region since it was available in Canada most of the winter and the storm tracks would have been more SE. I actually had a lot of snow on the ground at the end of that winter because late February brought a couple of big snows back to back. At least with that type of pattern there is hope with cold nearby. Those super/strong Nino patterns like last winter offer no hope since Canada is blow torched. 
   The 01-02 type winters that have the massive Alaskan vortex don’t seem to happen too often thankfully, at least not to that extent. 

There was ONE unique thing about 2022-23, one thing I couldnt recall any other time, and that was the surplus of....snowmen! Back to back PACKING wet snowfalls on Jan 22nd (3.4") and Jan 25th (6.5") led to snowmen everywhere, which froze in place for the next few weeks. Usually you see a handful of snow forts or snowmen peppered in suburbia, but the unusual amount of wet snow in mid-winter (followed by colder temps) was making them show up everywhere. It was a nice scene for sure. March had a good snow blitz too. Detroit ended up with 37.1", so while a below avg season, nothing striking about it at all...and in fact, quite a large amount of precip was wasted on unusual 5-6:1 ratio snow, so had temps been a few degrees colder during a few snowfalls, it would have easily been an avg snow season. The blinding thundersnowstorm of March 3rd saw 6.2" on 1.11" precip.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Ernesto may come too close for comfort to New England/Atlantic Canada:

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 8/13/2024 at 6:53 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

How do you do these composites? I want to be able to do some of my own.

These are the good ones I like to use. 

Monthly climate composites: https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

Daily climate composites: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

Correlation composites (correlate any index and any time period): https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/

US climate division data: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/

Put a (-) in front of years to do an opposite map. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 8/13/2024 at 5:18 AM, snowman19 said:

The very strong -PDO and -PMM are definitely playing a role in this Niña. None of the models are showing an east-based event, nor were they ever. If you look at where this trade wind burst is projected to take place, a central-based La Niña definitely has support 

 

 

Yeah, PDO is about -3 right now. A short time ago, it went to the lowest monthly reading since 1954. I've found the PDO has the strongest yearly correlation with the Fall pattern (Sept-Nov), holding a >0.6 correlation in NW Canada! (That's usually a warm US composite).