2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

13 hours ago, roardog said:

From here in the Great Lakes over to New England, there are generally two ways to get a very warm winter in a Nina. 
1. 22-23 style where you have arctic air coming into Canada but it’s dumping into the western half of the US because the pattern is so amplified. This gives us a lot of warm but dreary days since we are constantly getting warm and moist air masses coming from the southern US. 
2. 01-02/11-12 style where there’s a massive vortex around Alaska which doesn’t allow any Arctic air to move into the southern half of Canada therefore keeping the entire US outside of Alaska warm. This is generally a more pleasant winter warmth here as it usually has less moisture/stratus around. 
  I know studies have been done that show an active sun can lead to a lesser chance of high latitude blocking but I’m not totally convinced it was solely to blame for the massive Alaskan vortex in the 01-02 winter. I think it was used as a convenient excuse for blown forecasts that winter. 

The background states contributed to 01-02 yes. But I think there is more than enough evidence to blame high solar flux as the main contributor for that winter. It’s no coincidence that blocky winters are low solar/low sunspots. Also, high geomag is known big factor in +NAO development 

[snowman19]

I think that what we are seeing is an over-active mid-latitude High pressure, giving us a lot of La Nina events, vs something that is "organic". That would explain the +WPO tendency too, and the Southern Hemisphere's version of it. 


A "true La Nina" should be east-based, like we saw with this Super Nino's of 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24. 
I think that because the PDO is so negative (probably around -3 right now), a lot of the seasonal climate models are pushing for more of a west-based La Nina, where I'm saying if it was an organic new event, and independent of the mid-latitude cell, it should stay east-based. Otherwise, your forecast for a -PDO is the same as this coming La Nina. 
 

The very strong -PDO and -PMM are definitely playing a role in this Niña. None of the models are showing an east-based event, nor were they ever. If you look at where this trade wind burst is projected to take place, a central-based La Niña definitely has support 

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I couldn't care less what the ONI does...La Nina will be moderate.

My concern is with temps. A pattern acting like a moderate Niña but without the cooler equatorial surface temps typical of a moderate Niña Oni-wise, may not give us the result we expect/want in a Roni moderate Niña. That is why I  said that I prefer they couple. I  haven't bothered to look to see if there's a different result when they are not coupled, but my hunch is that there may be. Plus, the law of "what can go wrong, will."

[Yanksfan]

My expectations this upcoming winter is at an all time low. Central based LaNina, -PDO, solar max, not to mention a warming climate. I’m calling it right now. Central Park will be shut out as far as snowfall is concerned.

[so_whats_happening]

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

They finally have updated MEI data. The charts are not updated but the values are.

@snowman19

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

My expectations this upcoming winter is at an all time low. Central based LaNina, -PDO, solar max, not to mention a warming climate. I’m calling it right now. Central Park will be shut out as far as snowfall is concerned.

After the pathetic showing by the Yankees with the worst team in baseball, I can understand your despair. But we don't know everything and even lousy pattern can yield snow.

P.s. I'm not rubbing in the Yankees loss...I'm a Yankees fan too! 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Minus Super El Nino's.. How come Strong La Nina's don't do this? It's because the strong equilateral winds in the Pacific ocean naturally cause more upwelling in the east than the west. Because of this, Strong La Nina's haven't historically gravitated toward east-based or been of the same deviated magnitude as these El Nino's, but if they did this is what it would look like. Just a lesson in ENSO climatology. 

How do you do these composites? I want to be able to do some of my own.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

My concern is with temps. A pattern acting like a moderate Niña but without the cooler equatorial surface temps typical of a moderate Niña Oni-wise, may not give us the result we expect/want in a Roni moderate Niña. That is why I  said that I prefer they couple. I  haven't bothered to look to see if there's a different result when they are not coupled, but my hunch is that there may be. Plus, the law of "what can go wrong, will."

You have it backwards.....it would produce a stronger cool ENSO Walker Cell relative to the ONI, as was the case in 2022-2023.

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

They finally have updated MEI data. The charts are not updated but the values are.

@snowman19

Already into weak La Nina range.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think that what we are seeing is an over-active mid-latitude High pressure, giving us a lot of La Nina events, vs something that is "organic". That would explain the +WPO tendency too, and the Southern Hemisphere's version of it. 

A "true La Nina" should be east-based, like we saw with this Super Nino's of 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24. 

I think that because the PDO is so negative (probably around -3 right now), a lot of the seasonal climate models are pushing for more of a west-based La Nina, where I'm saying if it was an organic new event, and independent of the mid-latitude cell, it should stay east-based. Otherwise, your forecast for a -PDO is the same as this coming La Nina. 

 

I don't agree with that....its reversed. A canonical El Nino is east based, as the WWB pile the warmest anomalies into the eastern zones, but in a mature La Nina, the easterly trades push them west.

East-based events are weaker on average.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Waters were almost neutral close to South America.. 2010-2011 was greatest anomaly in the western ENSO regions, which I'm saying is a different kind of event. 

The east-based Super events also seem disconnected from the PDO, so it may even be a function of the mid-latitude cells that you get trade winds over the western ENSO regions in a lot of these "varying Weak-Moderates"

2010-2011 was central based...it wasn't west.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The tropical Atlantic isn't really that warm right now, and seems to be cooling relative to averages. Waters by Indonesia aren't super warm either. Tropical Indian Ocean / Nino 4 are pretty warm - but I can't imagine the RONI thing will be of any use if the non-Nino global tropical oceans are moving toward neutral. Warmest oceans v. average temps right now are far North Atlantic, Med, and then by Japan. Beaches off NC are warmer than anywhere off West Africa by SSTs.

All the bullshit about this being some kind of incredible hot Summer for the entire country has magically vanished in recent days and weeks. I wonder why. Actually been pretty cool for a while in the middle third of the US. My guess is we're already seeing the dominant and recessive patterns for the winter. Pattern one is dominant heat West/East thirds of the continental US with cold waves of varying severity and duration in the middle third of the US. We've seen this in July/Aug at times. Pattern two is weaker cold in the Northern Plains and Northwest, with the rest of the US warm (see May/June). If September reverts to one of those two patterns, I think it's likely we continue to see those two patterns dominant in the cold season. CFS currently has average temps, perhaps implying weak cold, in the Northern Plains for September. A blend of the two gives a pretty conventional La Nina look, but the magic is figuring out if the cold in the Central US or the Northern Plains / NW is dominant. Actually think there is a decent case for highs off the NW / NE coasts to be stronger than normal, which would flood the Central US with frequent cold snaps in between warm rebounds, while the rest of the US is mostly warm all winter.

A warm DM for most of the east is a given......but I guess I would take the core of the "cold" being in the N plains vs the PNW, as perhaps we could get come front-ender table scraps here in central New England before systems transition to rain.

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Already into weak La Nina range.

The MEI is going to couple this year. We’ve been in a Niña background for months

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The MEI is going to couple this year. We’ve been in a Niña background for months

Right...all I meant in my replay to @mitchnick...which is why the hope would be for Bluewave's amplified MC MJO in October to salavge any kind of respectable winter in the east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This winter I got 99 problems, but a dud Nina ain't one.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2010-2011 was central based...it wasn't west.

What site did you use to get this? And how far does this go back? I want to see if I can create the other strong la nina years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

What site did you use to get this? And how far does this go back? I want to see if I can create the other strong la nina years.

Something is up with it lately, but here it is...

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is 1955-1956, as I have many of these saved.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Here is the composite of all the ONI strong la nina years: 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Here is the composite of all the ONI strong la nina years: 

Notice how is looks a lot more like the Modoki composite, rather than the east-based composite...this is what I was pointing out to Chuck.

[snowman19]

57 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right...all I meant in my replay to @mitchnick...which is why the hope would be for Bluewave's amplified MC MJO in October to salavge any kind of respectable winter in the east.

Pray the Aleutian ridge does something favorable because the more I look at it, the more I’m convinced this is going to be a strong +AO/+NAO winter. IMO if there’s any help that’s where it comes from and right now, I think poleward spikes are going to be transient and not dominant 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Pray the Aleutian ridge does something favorable because the more I look at it, the more I’m convinced this is going to be a strong +AO/+NAO winter. IMO if there’s any help that’s where it comes from and right now, I think poleward spikes are going to be transient and not dominant 

I don't think its going to be wall-to-wall +AO/NAO...maybe mid winter will be.

[BlizzardWx]

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The tropical Atlantic isn't really that warm right now, and seems to be cooling relative to averages. Waters by Indonesia aren't super warm either. Tropical Indian Ocean / Nino 4 are pretty warm - but I can't imagine the RONI thing will be of any use if the non-Nino global tropical oceans are moving toward neutral. Warmest oceans v. average temps right now are far North Atlantic, Med, and then by Japan. Beaches off NC are warmer than anywhere off West Africa by SSTs.

All the bullshit about this being some kind of incredible hot Summer for the entire country has magically vanished in recent days and weeks. I wonder why. Actually been pretty cool for a while in the middle third of the US. My guess is we're already seeing the dominant and recessive patterns for the winter. Pattern one is dominant heat West/East thirds of the continental US with cold waves of varying severity and duration in the middle third of the US. We've seen this in July/Aug at times. Pattern two is weaker cold in the Northern Plains and Northwest, with the rest of the US warm (see May/June). If September reverts to one of those two patterns, I think it's likely we continue to see those two patterns dominant in the cold season. CFS currently has average temps, perhaps implying weak cold, in the Northern Plains for September. A blend of the two gives a pretty conventional La Nina look, but the magic is figuring out if the cold in the Central US or the Northern Plains / NW is dominant. Actually think there is a decent case for highs off the NW / NE coasts to be stronger than normal, which would flood the Central US with frequent cold snaps in between warm rebounds, while the rest of the US is mostly warm all winter.

Good observations, and I've noticed the same things. I could live with that down here as we'd at least get some periodically interesting weather. The last two years have each had a high end cold wave in OK, but little to show for it in terms of snow. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

For the individual ones, it looks like 1975-76 is the closest to an east-based la nina.

1973-74: 

1975-76: 

1988-89: 

1998-99: 

1999-2000: 

2007-08: 

The year with the closest to the east-based la nina is the one with the warmest RONI (peaked at only -1.14). All the other years at least got down to the -1.5 mark. I guess to get an east-based la nina, we may need a cold ONI and a warmer RONI, which of course, we're not getting this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

For the individual ones, it looks like 1975-76 is the closest to an east-based la nina.

1973-74: 

1975-76: 

1988-89: 

1998-99: 

1999-2000: 

2007-08: 

The year with the closest to the east-based la nina is the one with the warmest RONI (peaked at only -1.14). All the other years at least got down to the -1.5 mark. I guess to get an east-based la nina, we may need a cold ONI and a warmer RONI, which of course, we're not getting this year.

Which makes sense because if La Nina remains east-based, it is likley due to some competing force that prevented the event from fully maturing, which would be reflected by the RONI.

What I love about that site is the ability use other climo periods, but that feature isn't working right now, so we're relegated to using 1991-2020, which of coruse skews anomalies colder. When I made the charts, I used the appropriate climo perios...for instance, 1941-1970 for 1974-1975.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Hypothetical summer 2025 strong la nina peak: 

[michsnowfreak]

On 8/11/2024 at 10:30 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Look at my link. .its in there

Thanks! Excellent read. Its really interesting to me, maybe just not enough sample size, but the composites locally of a weak or strong La Nina yield above avg snow, while a moderate yields below avg (not terribly so, but still its far different than the very straightforward climo of Ninos with weak (good), moderate (ok), strong (bad)).

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thanks! Excellent read. Its really interesting to me, maybe just not enough sample size, but the composites locally of a weak or strong La Nina yield above avg snow, while a moderate yields below avg (not terribly so, but still its far different than the very straightforward climo of Ninos with weak (good), moderate (ok), strong (bad)).

I think that is it....the moderate composite also appears warmer than the strong because we have 2011-2012 in the modertate group and 2010-2011 in the strong.

[snowman19]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that is it....the moderate composite also appears warmer than the strong because we have 2011-2012 in the modertate group and 2010-2011 in the strong.

I think given the updated MEI, the twitter crowd can stop denying that the atmosphere is solidly into a La Niña state, there’s more to it than SSTs

[michsnowfreak]

On 8/12/2024 at 7:49 AM, mitchnick said:

I think Michsnowfreak will be putting all of us in tears this year. AN precip is a near guarantee for him with BN temps a better than even bet. 

Hopefully, I can scratch out at least 20", which would only be 2/3 of average. 20/21 was the last year time at or AN here.

Haha thank you for your confidence, but we all know how the weather works, no guarantees. The composite maps from CPC are actually too good right now, they would imply a storm track just to our east loading us up with lots of snow as the warmth stays east and the cold to our north and northwest is ample. But a composite map rarely will pan out.

What I like about this winter- A very strong early model signal for AN precip, and combine that with Nina climo and increasingly wetter/snowier winters the past several decades, I expect "average precip" to be the low bar. We also tend to have more wiggle room for an average snow season regardless of temps. After our mega snow blitz from 2007-15, we have been fairly average-ish in the snow department. The only standout winters since 2016 were 2017-18 (snowy at 61.0") and 2023-24 (low snow at 23.5"). Last winter was the first significantly below average snow season since 2011-12, and that low season was sandwiched in by heavy snow winters before and after. ENSO and all other factors aside, its very common for us to have a snowy winter after a sub-25" winter.

What I dont like about this winter- Definitely like more than I dont like, but one thing that always worries me is the usual Nina rollercoaster. They can be some of the most up and down winters we see, so I really dont expect a great snowpack season. In the unlikely event timing is always bad, we could waste a lot of storms on rain and bad tracks to our west, surviving mostly on wraparound, lake effect, and clippers. And of course the pacific worries of the past many years come to mind. We actually get treated to some good dynamic wet snowstorms/thundersnows in those patterns usually, but I can kiss a lot of snowcover goodbye.

Bottom line- If the anamalous cold to the north and warm to the south pans out, I fully expect some great winter storms somewhere in the midwest & Great Lakes, along with some arctic outbreaks flirting with record cold and some torches flirting with record warmth at some point during the season.