2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

I just posted this on the main Atlantic Tropical  thread fwiw:

 I still feel good about my 21/10/5 contest prediction. My latest analog based ACE prediction due to having the 5th highest ACE on record back to 1851 as of 8/8 is for another ~160 (total of ~200) with ~75% of that (another ~120) ACE W of 60W rest of the year. Ernesto looks to tack on significant W of 60W ACE. Along with that, I’m thinking another 3-4 CONUS H landfalls, bringing it up to 5-6 for the full season (record high is 6).

 Look out for the highest SOI since late 2022 near the weekend/early next week. A solidly +SOI tends to be somewhat of a leading indicator of activity/CONUS landfalls. So, if the very active early season along with continued near record warm SSTs isn’t enough, the upcoming strong +SOI may be a further harbinger of things to come late Aug-Sep.

 I’d love nothing more than my predictions ending up too high. So, I’m not wishcasting.

Yea, you are probably right, but from my perspective there is no need to rush anything out...makes no difference whether I do it in late August or late September/early October.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

20 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Anti-1976 looks OK for August at this point.

Oh gosh, I hope not, lol. That would mean well above average temps and wet weather for October-January. At PHL, November 1976 was the coldest/driest on record, and January 1977 was the coldest on record. After the last 5 years, I really don't want a record warm/wet November and a record warm January. On the flip side, this would mean a cold spring (March-May), with a dry March and April, which probably means no meaningful snow, unless February (which would be a close to average month, but still wet) provides an opening for some snow. Either way, a very depressing fall/winter/spring combination.

I'll rather have the anti-1986/87 analog. We may still get an above average temperature winter and a below average temperature spring, but at least the departure will be much closer to average. Plus, there's a better chance of snow potential sprinkled throughout the winter.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't really do any other seasons, but from what Check was saying it sounds like October and November maybe mild before a "cool" down in December.

Got ya. I’m fairly confident in a warmer than normal fall (SON) and possibly dry. The EURO-UK is showing a rather zonal, dry fall. If I had to guess right now, all 3 months are above average with November the most mild/dry

[George001]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh yea-I would take the over on normal temps here...which is why I said I would take that.

 The big question is are we looking at say +2 or +5 DJF. We can get away with +2, and have had some good winters in that temp range. +5 on the other hand is a death sentence, that’s 2022-2023, 2011-2012 etc territory.  

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, George001 said:

 The big question is are we looking at say +2 or +5 DJF. We can get away with +2, and have had some good winters in that temp range. +5 on the other hand is a death sentence, that’s 2022-2023, 2011-2012 etc territory.  

 I see +5+ as being most likely down here in the SE US as per Niña/strong -PDO climo due to a stronger than average SE ridge. The very warm WPAC, itself, also supports a stronger than avg SE ridge. Being as “cool” as the +2 to +4 range would be more likely in the NE US.

 I’m talking anomalies vs 1991-2020 base.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Got ya. I’m fairly confident in a warmer than normal fall (SON) and possibly dry. The EURO-UK is showing a rather zonal, dry fall. If I had to guess right now, all 3 months are above average with November the most mild/dry

I really like my analog years of 1998 and 2007. Those are the la nina years since 1949-50 that best fits a warm/dry temperature/precipitation profile. 1998 has all 3 months above average temperature and below average precipitation. 2007 works as well, except we had that mudstorm the last weekend of October that pushed the October precipation above average and November was below average.

1998: Sep (71.8F, +3F above average, 1.86 in); Oct (58.3F, +1.1F above average, 1.84 in); Nov (48.2 F, +1.1F above average, 1.18 in)

2007: Sep (72F, +3F above average, 0.58 in); Oct (64.5F, +7.3F above average, 4.66 in [2.83 from 10/23 to 10/27]); Nov (45.7F, -1.4F below average, 1.45 in)

Uses 1971-2000 averages

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

TBH, I am rooting on La Nina....the discrepany between RONI and ONI will ensure that the only path to a decent winter for most of the east coast is for the La Nina to beef up enough to excite an amplified MC MJO response during the fall, so that hopefully its more subdued come winter. Bit more margin for error from around the latitide of central Mass and points north, but I am talking for most.

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I really like my analog years of 1998 and 2007. Those are the la nina years since 1949-50 that best fits a warm/dry temperature/precipitation profile. 1998 has all 3 months above average temperature and below average precipitation. 2007 works as well, except we had that mudstorm the last weekend of October that pushed the October precipation above average and November was below average.

1998: Sep (71.8F, +3F above average, 1.86 in); Oct (58.3F, +1.1F above average, 1.84 in); Nov (48.2 F, +1.1F above average, 1.18 in)

2007: Sep (72F, +3F above average, 0.58 in); Oct (64.5F, +7.3F above average, 4.66 in [2.83 from 10/23 to 10/27]); Nov (45.7F, -1.4F below average, 1.45 in)

Uses 1971-2000 averages

I prefer 1999 and 2007...1999 is a better solar, QBO and ENSO match than 1998.

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, George001 said:

 The big question is are we looking at say +2 or +5 DJF. We can get away with +2, and have had some good winters in that temp range. +5 on the other hand is a death sentence, that’s 2022-2023, 2011-2012 etc territory.  

I would honestly act like we have hit the lottery with a +2 winter.

[George001]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would honestly act like we have hit the lottery with a +2 winter.

For me it depends on how we get to it. If Dec and Mar torch while Jan and Feb are BN temp + AN precip, that would be great. If we lose Jan and Feb and get the cold in Dec and Mar, that would suck. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, George001 said:

For me it depends on how we get to it. If Dec and Mar torch while Jan and Feb are BN temp + AN precip, that would be great. If we lose Jan and Feb and get the cold in Dec and Mar, that would suck. 

I would love a cold December...I disagree. 

[snowman19]

[roardog]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

From here in the Great Lakes over to New England, there are generally two ways to get a very warm winter in a Nina. 
1. 22-23 style where you have arctic air coming into Canada but it’s dumping into the western half of the US because the pattern is so amplified. This gives us a lot of warm but dreary days since we are constantly getting warm and moist air masses coming from the southern US. 
2. 01-02/11-12 style where there’s a massive vortex around Alaska which doesn’t allow any Arctic air to move into the southern half of Canada therefore keeping the entire US outside of Alaska warm. This is generally a more pleasant winter warmth here as it usually has less moisture/stratus around. 
  I know studies have been done that show an active sun can lead to a lesser chance of high latitude blocking but I’m not totally convinced it was solely to blame for the massive Alaskan vortex in the 01-02 winter. I think it was used as a convenient excuse for blown forecasts that winter. 

[George001]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would love a cold December...I disagree. 

That’s fair, we haven’t had a cold and snowy December for a while. The main reason I would rather punt Dec and Mar than Jan and Feb is that is punting Dec and Mar while we get BN temps during peak climo would likely lead to a better outcome snowfall and retention wise. Of course, there is more to winter than just raw snowfall totals and retention, that’s just what I value the most. 

[bluewave]

While the Northeast has had a record breaking 9 consecutive warmer to record warm winters since 15-16, we still haven’t had a departure yet rivaling the magnitude of 2001-2002 or 1931-1932. Those were the 2 most anomalous warm departure winters relative to their 30 year averages. So at least we haven’t had a winter since 15-16 with a departure over +7.0 yet. As the winters continue to warm so do the 30 year averages. If we ever got a repeat of 01-02 or 31-32 departures in this much warmer climate, then it would be the first winter in the Northeast to average above freezing. I used dense rank sorting for the top 10 warmest Northeast winters by temperature rankings below.

#1…..2023-2024…..31.3°……+5.5

#2….2001-2002…..31.2°…….+7.1

#3….2022-2023…..30.7°……+4.9

……..2015-2016……30.7°…….+5.8

#4….2011-2012……30.0°……..+5.9

#5…..1997-1998…..29.6°……..+6.8

#6…..2016-2017…..29.5°……..+4.6

………1931-1932……29.5°……..+7.4

#7…..2019-2020…..28.9°……..+4.0

#8…..1932-1933…..28.4°………+6.3

#9…..1998-1999……28.2°……..+5.4

……….1948-1949…..28.2°………+5.3

#10….1952-1953……28.1°………..+4.8

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/regional/time-series/101/tavg/3/2/1895-2024?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2000

[mitchnick]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, I am rooting on La Nina....the discrepany between RONI and ONI will ensure that the only path to a decent winter for most of the east coast is for the La Nina to beef up enough to excite an amplified MC MJO response during the fall, so that hopefully its more subdued come winter. Bit more margin for error from around the latitide of central Mass and points north, but I am talking for most.

I was all in on the near super Niña the Cansips was advertising in the Spring to hopefully negate some of the heat in the western Pacific, but then everything started stepping back from that, except for the Euro that never bought into it. 

I agree that a moderate Niña, at least, would likely result in a better winter for most on the east coast. Unfortunately, the Ventrice 850 wind anomaly plot is the GFS, and it's hard to have a lot of faith in the GFS...ever. Time will tell, but even if that 2 week prog turns out pretty good, and I  hope it does, we need to maintain those 850 anomalies for months to come if we want to reach a legit tri-monthly moderate Niña. I'd feel a whole lot better if the Euro was on board because this month's update was not too encouraging for a moderate Niña. Additionally, I feel we need the ONI and RONI to couple better if we want a moderate Niña to deliver this winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Minus Super El Nino's.. How come Strong La Nina's don't do this? It's because the strong equilateral winds in the Pacific ocean naturally cause more upwelling in the east than the west. Because of this, Strong La Nina's haven't historically gravitated toward east-based or been of the same deviated magnitude as these El Nino's, but if they did this is what it would look like. Just a lesson in ENSO climatology. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

Stay safe.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I was all in on the near super Niña the Cansips was advertising in the Spring to hopefully negate some of the heat in the western Pacific, but then everything started stepping back from that, except for the Euro that never bought into it. 

I agree that a moderate Niña, at least, would likely result in a better winter for most on the east coast. Unfortunately, the Ventrice 850 wind anomaly plot is the GFS, and it's hard to have a lot of faith in the GFS...ever. Time will tell, but even if that 2 week prog turns out pretty good, and I  hope it does, we need to maintain those 850 anomalies for months to come if we want to reach a legit tri-monthly moderate Niña. I'd feel a whole lot better if the Euro was on board because this month's update was not too encouraging for a moderate Niña. Additionally, I feel we need the ONI and RONI to couple better if we want a moderate Niña to deliver this winter. 

I couldn't care less what the ONI does...La Nina will be moderate.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Minus Super El Nino's.. How come Strong La Nina's don't do this? It's because the strong equilateral winds in the Pacific ocean naturally cause more upwelling in the east than the west. Because of this, Strong La Nina's haven't historically gravitated toward east-based or been of the same deviated magnitude as these El Nino's, but if they did this is what it would look like. Just a lesson in ENSO climatology. 

The easterly trades tend to push the max anomalies west, so stronger trades generally equal a stronger, more west based La Nina.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The easterly trades tend to push the max anomalies west, so stronger trades generally equal a stronger, more west based La Nina.

Yeah, you have to think the mean is skewed though if El Nino's are pushing on the trades much stronger than La Nina's. Neutral is probably some kind of Weak La Nina, because you still have all that upwelling and cold water temps running along the equator to Peru. The normalization of those water temps to match the northern and southern Hemisphere's should not be a +5-6c El Nino, while the greatest La Nina ever is -2c. You would have to think over a long enough climo period, you would have matching max deviations on both sides.. The top maps match what a cold weather pattern should produce here in N. America. I just don't think you are going to get 17c mean water temps along the coast of South America anytime soon. 

[George001]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I couldn't care less what the ONI does...La Nina will be moderate.

Agreed, if anything if we actually do get a moderate ONI Nina we might even get a strong Nina response. 

[George001]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Minus Super El Nino's.. How come Strong La Nina's don't do this? It's because the strong equilateral winds in the Pacific ocean naturally cause more upwelling in the east than the west. Because of this, Strong La Nina's haven't historically gravitated toward east-based or been of the same deviated magnitude as these El Nino's, but if they did this is what it would look like. Just a lesson in ENSO climatology. 

Could 2010-2011 fall in this category? Strong Nina ONI, MEI peaked at -2.4, and was still -1.8 by Dec-Jan. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, George001 said:

Could 2010-2011 fall in this category? Strong Nina ONI, MEI peaked at -2.4, and was still -1.8 by Dec-Jan. 

Waters were almost neutral close to South America.. 2010-2011 was greatest anomaly in the western ENSO regions, which I'm saying is a different kind of event. 

The east-based Super events also seem disconnected from the PDO, so it may even be a function of the mid-latitude cells that you get trade winds over the western ENSO regions in a lot of these "varying Weak-Moderates"

[raindancewx]

The tropical Atlantic isn't really that warm right now, and seems to be cooling relative to averages. Waters by Indonesia aren't super warm either. Tropical Indian Ocean / Nino 4 are pretty warm - but I can't imagine the RONI thing will be of any use if the non-Nino global tropical oceans are moving toward neutral. Warmest oceans v. average temps right now are far North Atlantic, Med, and then by Japan. Beaches off NC are warmer than anywhere off West Africa by SSTs.

All the bullshit about this being some kind of incredible hot Summer for the entire country has magically vanished in recent days and weeks. I wonder why. Actually been pretty cool for a while in the middle third of the US. My guess is we're already seeing the dominant and recessive patterns for the winter. Pattern one is dominant heat West/East thirds of the continental US with cold waves of varying severity and duration in the middle third of the US. We've seen this in July/Aug at times. Pattern two is weaker cold in the Northern Plains and Northwest, with the rest of the US warm (see May/June). If September reverts to one of those two patterns, I think it's likely we continue to see those two patterns dominant in the cold season. CFS currently has average temps, perhaps implying weak cold, in the Northern Plains for September. A blend of the two gives a pretty conventional La Nina look, but the magic is figuring out if the cold in the Central US or the Northern Plains / NW is dominant. Actually think there is a decent case for highs off the NW / NE coasts to be stronger than normal, which would flood the Central US with frequent cold snaps in between warm rebounds, while the rest of the US is mostly warm all winter.

[George001]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Waters were almost neutral close to South America.. 2010-2011 was greatest anomaly in the western ENSO regions, which I'm saying is a different kind of event. 

The east-based Super events also seem disconnected from the PDO

That makes sense. For the anti super Nino composite to work we would essentially need a super east based Nina…. Which doesn’t exist due to the mechanics of how ninas develop. 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

While we're at it, can someone run the composite of the 8 ONI strong la ninas: 1955-56, 1973-74, 1975-76, 1988-89, 1998-99, 1999-2000, 2007-08, and 2010-11?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think that what we are seeing is an over-active mid-latitude High pressure, giving us a lot of La Nina events, vs something that is "organic". That would explain the +WPO tendency too, and the Southern Hemisphere's version of it. 

A "true La Nina" should be east-based, like we saw with this Super Nino's of 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24. 

I think that because the PDO is so negative (probably around -3 right now), a lot of the seasonal climate models are pushing for more of a west-based La Nina, where I'm saying if it was an organic new event, and independent of the mid-latitude cell, it should stay east-based. Otherwise, your forecast for a -PDO is the same as this coming La Nina. 

 

[GaWx]

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, you are probably right, but from my perspective there is no need to rush anything out...makes no difference whether I do it in late August or late September/early October.

 I’m not at all trying to rush you. But since ACE is an important component from your perspective, I thought you might find this interesting (I just posted this in the main tropical thread):

 Based on model/NHC progs and considering how warm the SSTs are way up above Bermuda, it is a reasonable possibility that Ernesto could bring 2024 season to date ACE to ~65 as of Aug 20th. If 2024 is at 65 then, it would still be in 6th place, just one back of the 5th place as of Aug 8th:

 As of Aug 8th, 2024 was at 41. That was in 5th behind only 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42).

 If 2024 has 65 as of Aug 20th, it appears it would then still be in 6th behind only 2005 (~85), 1933 (~80), 1899 (~77), 1886 (~75), and 1893 (67).

 One would think that keeping this in mind would stop any season cancel declarations.