2024-2025 La Nina

[PhiEaglesfan712]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark What are your thoughts for the fall? Just musing but based on everything right now synopitcally, I’m thinking warmer than normal for SON with November being the warmest and driest out of the 3 months and possibly drier than normal minus any tropical events of course in Sept and Oct. Not going into any winter thoughts until November….

I definitely disagree with November being the warmest of the 3 months, at least here at PHL. I think September and October are going to be well above average. In fact, if there is a below average month in the fall, I think it's November.

[raindancewx]

Anti-1976 looks OK for August at this point.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I definitely disagree with November being the warmest of the 3 months, at least here at PHL. I think September and October are going to be well above average. In fact, if there is a below average month in the fall, I think it's November.

We’ll see, I think SON all average above normal, however, I see November as the most above average month and most likely the driest. I think that 3 month period as a whole averages drier than normal with the caveat being any tropical systems in Sept and Oct

[BuffaloWeather]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark What are your thoughts for the fall? Just musing but based on everything right now synopitcally, I’m thinking warmer than normal for SON with November being the warmest and driest out of the 3 months and possibly drier than normal minus any tropical events of course in Sept and Oct. Not going into any winter thoughts until November….

Good bet that almost every month is warmer than average moving forward. I went back to look at the last 50 months at KBUF and only 11 out of 50 were below normal with 3 of them -0.1. You have over an 80% chance of guessing right if you guessed every month to be above normal moving forward.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Good bet that almost every month is warmer than average moving forward. I went back to look at the last 50 months at KBUF and only 11 out of 50 were below normal with 3 of them -0.1. You have over an 80% chance of guessing right if you guessed every month to be above normal moving forward.

Weather/seasons go in cycles though, even when the trend is warmer any month can be colder depending on the pattern. 

During the past 6 Falls at Detroit, only 1 of 6 Septembers and 2 of 6 Octobers were colder than average, but 4 of 6 Novembers were colder than avg. So based on that November has the best bet to go cold.

But a mild November wouldn't surprise me, as often in Ninas a mild November gives way to a cold December.

[BuffaloWeather]

24 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Weather/seasons go in cycles though, even when the trend is warmer any month can be colder depending on the pattern. 

During the past 6 Falls at Detroit, only 1 of 6 Septembers and 2 of 6 Octobers were colder than average, but 4 of 6 Novembers were colder than avg. So based on that November has the best bet to go cold.

But a mild November wouldn't surprise me, as often in Ninas a mild November gives way to a cold December.

Agree but for every 1 colder than normal month we get 3-4 warmer than average.

[rainsucks]

yeah, warmer than average seems like a good bet for this fall, with the core of the heat likely being centered somewhere over the Midwest (based on analogs and ENSO trends anyhow). Seems like Dec could be cold though, for a time at least.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/7/2024 at 11:05 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I did it before and published my work on easternuswx, but I don't have those filed saved anymore. Here is what you are looking at though, if you want to do an analysis yourself (it would take a few hours). 

The +SSTA area I give 1.00 weight to, and the -SSTA area I give 0.65 weight to. It looks something like this:

Because the northern area has more volatility. 

I made the total dataset, SSTs and NAO even, by multiplying the total historical absolute number of both, and dividing it by each other. 

Here is what 8-5-2024 looks like:

I found some of your old data looking in one of my seasonal outlooks in which I referenced it.

Utilizing North Atlantic SSTs During Summer as an NAO Predictor for Cold Season

Perhaps one of the most skilled forecasters on a forum replete with talented meteorologists

  and hobbyists alike, in americanwx.com, "StormchaserChuck", now known as 

"UniversesBelowNormal", devised a formula over a decade ago that predicts the mean

 aggregate state of the NAO for the ensuing winter using the SSTs in an area of the north

 Atlantic. This methodology is strongly endorsed as one of the more accurate predictors

 available for the mean state of the winter NAO. In fact, had Eastern Mass Weather

 considered it last season, the outlook would have been much more successful.

The following methodology is a wonderful illustration of the delayed feedback between sea

 and air that represents the very essence of the elaborate system of atmospheric oscillations

 that is so often referenced.

"In 2006 on a site called easternuswx, elaborate research was done with North Atlantic SSTs,

 showing high lagging predictive value for following Winter's NAO/AO. The correlation factor

 was higher than 0.4, and there was advantage over decadal cycles. Meaning, it would

 predict years that reversed the decadal trend. The index was very accurate in predicting

 the +NAO for the 2006-2007 Winter, and got much attention after a topic called "This

 will be the warmest Winter on record for the US" (It was the 7th warmest).  Since then

 the index has performed wonderfully after the fact:

 

2018-19: +NAO signal/+NAO winter....Verified

2017-18: Strong -NAO signal/+NAO Winter....Failure to Verify

2016-17: Strong - NAO signal/ Weak -NAO Winter  .. Verified

2015-16: +NAO signal/ +NAO Winter ... Verified

2014-15: Strong - NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Failure to Verify

2013-14: Strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Verified
2012-13: slight -NAO signal / strong -NAO Winter ... Verified
2011-2012 neutral NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Null
2010-2011: Strong -NAO signal/ Strong -NAO Winter ... Verified

2009-2010: Strong -NAO signal / Strong - NAO Winter ... Verified

2008-2009: weak -NAO signal / weak -NAO Winter ... Verified

2007-2008: -NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Failure to Verify

2006-2007: +NAO signal / weak +NAO Winter ... Verified

2005-2006: strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Verified

[michsnowfreak]

19 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

yeah, warmer than average seems like a good bet for this fall, with the core of the heat likely being centered somewhere over the Midwest (based on analogs and ENSO trends anyhow). Seems like Dec could be cold though, for a time at least.

This will interesting to see because as you said, it is often the case as shown in enso analogs (mild nina Falls) but this summer has been a very unexpectedly pleasant summer in the midwest surrounded by the heat to the west, south, and east.

[George001]

The warm risk in Ninas is sometimes the MJO gets stuck in phases 4-6. If that happens we are likely looking at a +6 AN month, possibly even warmer. Phases 4-6 are a DEATH SENTENCE for winter enthusiasts in the east. It’s a tough call, this isn’t developing as an east based event like 2017-2018, but it’s not developing as a modoki like 2011-2012 or 2022-2023. Sometimes the structure of an ENSO event can shift rapidly, like 2022-2023 went from basin wide to a modoki in early Jan, then the MJO camped out in phases 4-6 and that was it. What do you guys look alongside model projections as potential indicators for ENSO structure throughout the winter?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is my preliminary work on the polar domain, which lines up exceedingly and uncannily well with Chuck's NAO formula currently, which was gratifying given its past success.

NOTE: THIS IS NOT A WINTER FORECAST COMPOSITE....it's just for the polar domain, so no need to point out years like 2016, which featured a +PDO....that will not be viewed as an extra tropical Pacific analog. The focus for this is the AO/NAO domain.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-analysis-of-polar-domain.html

[michsnowfreak]

32 minutes ago, George001 said:

The warm risk in Ninas is sometimes the MJO gets stuck in phases 4-6. If that happens we are likely looking at a +6 AN month, possibly even warmer. Phases 4-6 are a DEATH SENTENCE for winter enthusiasts in the east. It’s a tough call, this isn’t developing as an east based event like 2017-2018, but it’s not developing as a modoki like 2011-2012 or 2022-2023. Sometimes the structure of an ENSO event can shift rapidly, like 2022-2023 went from basin wide to a modoki in early Jan, then the MJO camped out in phases 4-6 and that was it. What do you guys look alongside model projections as potential indicators for ENSO structure throughout the winter?

It's my understanding that MJO phases are difficult to predict far in advance. 

[michsnowfreak]

Does anyone have a breakdown list of what ninas were central based, east based, etc?

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Does anyone have a breakdown list of what ninas were central based, east based, etc?

One option is that you can go here and compare the 4 regions for each winter to get a general idea. It wouldn’t take that long:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Does anyone have a breakdown list of what ninas were central based, east based, etc?

Look at my link. .its in there

[Stormchaserchuck1]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is my preliminary work on the polar domain, which lines up exceedingly and uncannily well with Chuck's NAO formula currently, which was gratifying given its past success.

NOTE: THIS IS NOT A WINTER FORECAST COMPOSITE....it's just for the polar domain, so no need to point out years like 2016, which featured a +PDO....that will not be viewed as an extra tropical Pacific analog. The focus for this is the AO/NAO domain.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-analysis-of-polar-domain.html

Nice write up.. something I found lately is they were doing an analysis of sea-level rises from 2011 to 2022, and it looks so +NAO! Like +0.7 correlation in the south, and -0.5 correlation in the north. I wonder if the CPC's calculation (which has been disconnected from 500mb pattern the last few Winters) factors in stuff like that. It would explain the super positive consecutive streak they have, where since 2013, 16/16 Winter monthly NAO's > 1.11 have all been positive! While I think in reality, we have seen a split between + and - Winter monthly NAO's. The problem too is a super -PNA pattern may pop ridging in the south part of their NAO measurement, making it seem +nao. I like to look at the independence of the region, because that has effects coming from a specific point of happening. This may be a super +NAO Winter per CPC's calculations, but we may get some Greenland ridging at times.. 

Another thing too, is with a strong 10mb vortex, the effect isn't always a pure +AO. Sometimes that strong Stratosphere vortex, like a tornado, will hit the lower atmosphere and actually flex the meeting point between the mid-latitude cell and Polar cell. This could amplify High pressure that is RNA, or even sometimes south-based -NAO, like your maps of +qbo's shows. This has especially happened since 2008.  

[snowman19]

One option is that you can go here and compare the 4 regions for each winter to get a general idea. It wouldn’t take that long:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

Good link. The new runs of the NMME and EURO-UK are showing a region 3.4 centered event, so “central-based”? I guess we can call it.

This is pretty crazy, despite La Niña, -PDO, IOD changes (models now going for a -IOD this fall), global temps/AGW refuse to drop

[roardog]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Good link. The new runs of the NMME and EURO-UK are showing a region 3.4 centered event, so “central-based”? I guess we can call it.

This is pretty crazy, despite La Niña, -PDO, IOD changes (models now going for a -IOD this fall), global temps/AGW refuse to drop

 

 

 

 

The seasonal models are useless for 2M temp anomalies. They just default to warm everywhere. There aren’t many guarantees in weather but one thing I can guarantee is that even though the planet is warm, there will be negative anomalies on land somewhere on earth unlike what that map shows. 

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, roardog said:

The seasonal models are useless for 2M temp anomalies. They just default to warm everywhere. There aren’t many guarantees in weather but one thing I can guarantee is that even though the planet is warm, there will be negative anomalies on land somewhere on earth unlike what that map shows. 

 Agreed. My initial best guess for where negative temperature anomalies MIGHT be this winter in our continent would be on or near where the following canonical La Niña based map has them. Of course it likely won’t work out all that similarly due to unpredictability, differing other factors/indices, every winter is different, etc:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

These are analogs I came up with if we have a +NAO, and -PNA, and run that N. Pacific ridge north into Alaska, making it a negative or neutral EPO/WPO (unlike the last 5/6 Winters).  

Plus

49-50, 56-57, 71-72, 72-73, 73-74, 81-82, 84-85, 88-89, 08-09, 16-17, 17-18, 21-22

Minus

57-58, 69-70, 76-77, 79-80, 86-87, 97-98, 03-04, 09-10

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

These are analogs I came up with if we have a +NAO, and -PNA, and run that N. Pacific ridge north into Alaska, making it a negative or neutral EPO/WPO (unlike the last 5/6 Winters).  

Plus

49-50, 56-57, 71-72, 72-73, 73-74, 81-82, 84-85, 88-89, 08-09, 16-17, 17-18, 21-22

Minus

57-58, 69-70, 76-77, 79-80, 86-87, 97-98, 03-04, 09-10

I would take that....my spot would probably do okay. If you run the temp departures for my polar analog composite, it looks a lot like that.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would take that....my spot would probably do okay. If you run the temp departures for my polar analog composite, it looks a lot like that.

I have a feeling that we are in the same pattern though, and that the Northeast and Great Lakes are too cold in that composite.. If these +NAO's continue, that is what we will likely see unless the La Nina goes Moderate+ and overpowers the +nao/-epo correlation that I have noticed. I'm counting on that at least a minor pattern change has taken place with 7 +nao bouts so far this year (possibly related to the Solar Max).. but I can easily visualize another Winter where we are breaking 50s to near 60 a lot down here. Last years "bursts" were pretty strong including hitting 80 on the coldest day of the year.. hard to not run that forward, or think it may take a few years to change the pattern.. but I'm being a little riskier with those analogs/forecast, and those thoughts are me going colder.. It may just go back and forth a lot, with us usually being on the east side of storm systems.. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I have a feeling that we are in the same pattern though, and that the Northeast and Great Lakes are too cold in that composite.. If these +NAO's continue, that is what we will likely see unless the La Nina goes Moderate+ and overpowers the +nao/-epo correlation that I have noticed. I'm counting on that at least a minor pattern change has taken place with 7 +nao bouts so far this year (possibly related to the Solar Max).. but I can easily visualize another Winter where we are breaking 50s to near 60 a lot down here. Last years "bursts" were pretty strong including hitting 80 on the coldest day of the year.. hard to not run that forward, or think it may take a few years to change the pattern.. but I'm being a little riskier with those analogs/forecast, and that's going colder.. 

Oh yea-I would take the over on normal temps here...which is why I said I would take that.

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I have a feeling that we are in the same pattern though, and that the Northeast and Great Lakes are too cold in that composite.. If these +NAO's continue, that is what we will likely see unless the La Nina goes Moderate+ and overpowers the +nao/-epo correlation that I have noticed. I'm counting on that at least a minor pattern change has taken place with 7 +nao bouts so far this year (possibly related to the Solar Max).. but I can easily visualize another Winter where we are breaking 50s to near 60 a lot down here. Last years "bursts" were pretty strong including hitting 80 on the coldest day of the year.. hard to not run that forward, or think it may take a few years to change the pattern.. but I'm being a little riskier with those analogs/forecast, and those thoughts are me going colder.. It may just go back and forth a lot, with us usually being on the east side of storm systems.. 

Take it with a grain of salt obviously, but the new EURO-UKMET super blend seasonal run is suggesting a very flat Aleutian ridge as opposed to a poleward one. Is it right? Flip a coin. And to your point on the high solar flux possibly affecting the NAO, I’d have to agree. Sunspots and geomag are off the charts right now

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Take it with a grain of salt obviously, but the new EURO-UKMET super blend seasonal run is suggesting a very flat Aleutian ridge as opposed to a poleward one. Is it right? Flip a coin. And to your point on the high solar flux possibly affecting the NAO, I’d have to agree. Sunspots and geomag are off the charts right now

 

 

 

 

I agree with your assessment.....basin-wide La Nina is normally a coin-flip with respect to poleward ridging....some act as east-based, some as Modoki with flat ridges. But I will say that we are increasingly "due" for something....anything to break "right".

This would be my seventh consecutrive below average snowfall season....have to go back to 2017-2018 for a solidly above average season or even anything approaching normal.

[mitchnick]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree with your assessment.....basin-wide La Nina is normally a coin-flip with respet to poleward ridging....some act as east-based, some as Modoki with flat ridges. But I will say that we are increasingly "due" for something....anything to break "right".

This would be my seventh consecutrive below average snowfall season....have to go back to 2017-2018 for a solidly above average season or even anything approaching normal.

I think Michsnowfreak will be putting all of us in tears this year. AN precip is a near guarantee for him with BN temps a better than even bet. 

Hopefully, I can scratch out at least 20", which would only be 2/3 of average. 20/21 was the last year time at or AN here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I think Michsnowfreak will be putting all of us in tears this year. AN precip is a near guarantee for him with BN temps a better than even bet. 

Hopefully, I can scratch out at least 20", which would only be 2/3 of average. 20/21 was the last year time at or AN here.

I think I'm going to hold off on doing the extra tropical Pacific until latter Septmeber or early October. I was going to do it next week, but I want to get a better idea of where the ACE is headed because that may really inform how much poleward Aleutian ridging we get.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark What are your thoughts for the fall? Just musing but based on everything right now synopitcally, I’m thinking warmer than normal for SON with November being the warmest and driest out of the 3 months and possibly drier than normal minus any tropical events of course in Sept and Oct. Not going into any winter thoughts until November….

I don't really do any other seasons, but from what Chuck was saying it sounds like October and November maybe mild before a "cool" down in December.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Good bet that almost every month is warmer than average moving forward. I went back to look at the last 50 months at KBUF and only 11 out of 50 were below normal with 3 of them -0.1. You have over an 80% chance of guessing right if you guessed every month to be above normal moving forward.

Its like groundhog day....every season is the same, regardless of ENSO, solar, underwear or no underwear....we have a bloodbath off of Japan, a -3.56546 PDO, Raindance assembling an antilog list that includes any respectable east coast snowfall season that ends up being lethally accurate, and Bluewave responding to an alarm over his bedside that alerts of him of any expressed optimism pertaining to east coast winter, so that he can come in and promptly assinate spirits with a reminder about the warm pool and some god awful charts referencing the Pacific over the past 9 seasons. We also have snowman chiming in about some esoteric index from the middle east that supports the continued development of La Nina and is hostile for eastern snow and cold.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I'm going to hold off on doing the extra tropical Pacific until latter Septmeber or early October. I was going to do it next week, but I want to get a better idea of where the ACE is headed because that may really inform how much poleward Aleutian ridging we get.

I just posted this on the main Atlantic Tropical  thread fwiw:

 I still feel good about my 21/10/5 contest prediction. My latest analog based ACE prediction due to having the 5th highest ACE on record back to 1851 as of 8/8 is for another ~160 (total of ~200) with ~75% of that (another ~120) ACE W of 60W rest of the year. Ernesto looks to tack on significant W of 60W ACE. Along with that, I’m thinking another 3-4 CONUS H landfalls, bringing it up to 5-6 for the full season (record high is 6).

 Look out for the highest SOI since late 2022 near the weekend/early next week. A solidly +SOI tends to be somewhat of a leading indicator of activity/CONUS landfalls. So, if the very active early season along with continued near record warm SSTs isn’t enough, the upcoming strong +SOI may be a further harbinger of things to come late Aug-Sep.

 I’d love nothing more than my predictions ending up too high. So, I’m not wishcasting.