2024-2025 La Nina

[michsnowfreak]

19 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

This year while in many areas wasn't great at all, there was one spot that managed to do well. PA was the hot spot for average to above average snowfall this year and at that a rather localized area from about Scranton to Allentown and back to about Harrisburg/ State College area. We managed about 18-19" on the winter which is below average on our 26" yearly snowfall. This was not a bad winter for our neck of the woods but last winter was horrific (0.9" for the entire winter). 2020/21 was our last above average winter (~34") and that came with a nice storm in February and a nice event from the huge storm that pummeled BGM back in December 2020.

At this point im rooting for a neutral event, while one year I would love to have a revisit of 09-10 pop up im on the lets get to average train at this point.

I have been noticing though when we do get these marginal events things are just a bit too warm for us anymore when we used to be able to manage to stay slightly on the cooler side of things. I do wonder if the warm Atlantic is causing this issue. That hurts us immensely on those quick pickups of 2-4" that would help get to near average.

Yeah, I noticed a couple decent events in PA. I have a friend in Hollidaysburg, PA (not sure which CWA that is) & he has posted a few good snowstorms. Last year we only finished slightly below avg snowfall in SE MI but Im one of those that figures cold & snowcover into the mix for how good, or not good, a winter is lol. The current avg at Detroit is 45", the longterm avg 41". Last winter saw 37.1" and this winter so far 22.6" at DTW. During these warmer winters, we get a few real good bouts of blinding snow, thundersnow, and extreme low ratio snow (case in point- Jan 12th saw 4.6" of snow on 1.04" liquid, nearly all snow) but its short on the deep winter feels.

Weve not really suffered too badly at all in the snowfall dept outside of this winter, but snowcover has taken a hit. The past 9 winters (im including this winter, so could always add a bit), ever since the infamous strong Nino of 2015-16 shook everything up, the avg snowfall is 40.1" & avg days w/ 1"+ snowcover is 40. The previous 8 winters the avg snowfall was 58.3" & 1"+ snowcover days 61. The longterm avg would be about 41" snowfall, 50 snowcover days. So not bad on paper at all, but a sharp reduction from a super snowy stretch, with 5 of the 9 winters being very mild to boot.

Im all for neutral too. It could shake things up for everyone. No matter how "good" or "bad" the pattern is, youll have winners and losers, but it seems neutral is a more favorable pattern for more widespread winter conditions. 

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

1998-99 is one of the few milder winters I would NEVER say no to a repeat of lol.

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

List of strong and moderate la ninas since 1950 (based on Ensemble and NOAA):

Strong: 1955-56 (5 - considered Strong by Ensemble, Moderate by NOAA), 1973-74 (6), 1975-76 (5 - considered Strong by NOAA, Moderate by Ensemble), 1988-89 (6), 1998-99 (5 - considered Strong by NOAA, Moderate by Ensemble), 1999-2000 (6), 2007-08 (6), 2010-11 (6)

Moderate: 1949-50 (4), 1970-71 (4), 1984-85 (3 - considered Moderate by Ensemble, Weak by NOAA), 1995-96 (3 - considered Moderate by NOAA, Weak by Ensemble), 2011-12 (4), 2020-21 (4), 2021-22 (4), 2022-23 (3 - considered Moderate by Ensemble, Weak by NOAA)

Thanks for the list! What is the difference between Ensemble & NOAA? 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thanks for the list! What is the difference between Ensemble & NOAA? 

I assume NOAA is just the one US agency, ensemble is the average strength by other US private and international climate observation organizations plus NOAA.

 

I could be wrong, but it makes sense.

[chubbs]

From Kris Karnauskas twitter, tropical mean SST anomaly averaged on latitude bands. Shows the impact of long-term warming and enso on tropical and sub-tropical SST. Ninos warm the tropics and sub-tropics while La Nina cooling is more focused on the tropics with less impact on the sub-tropics.  The subtropics haven't been the same since the 15/16 nino. We'll see what the aftermath of this nino is.

edit: Added a plot showing trends for the east and west Pacific.  Of course the east Pacific has the biggest enso effects.

[so_whats_happening]

6 hours ago, chubbs said:

From Kris Karnauskas twitter, tropical mean SST anomaly averaged on latitude bands. Shows the impact of long-term warming and enso on tropical and sub-tropical SST. Ninos warm the tropics and sub-tropics while La Nina cooling is more focused on the tropics with less impact on the sub-tropics.  The subtropics haven't been the same since the 15/16 nino. We'll see what the aftermath of this nino is.

edit: Added a plot showing trends for the east and west Pacific.  Of course the east Pacific has the biggest enso effects.

Very cool. You can see from your first picture we took a step up in the early 2000s and something just went nuts around the 15/16 Nino. Is it possible that in order to keep as close to balance as it can be that we see a multi decadal -PDO state and potentially more La Ninas to try and 'revert' things? 

Edit: Also wanted to add it is interesting to note that the La Nina SST anomaly seems to be not nearly as intense over time even with impacts still being almost as potent as they were 30-40 years ago. I wonder if this is due to the warming of the surrounding oceans having an impact on the overall SST anomaly yet when the background is still La Nina we still feel the episodes regardless of ONI values. Example being we hit barely moderate level on the third year La Nina yet the MEI would suggest we were near super Nina levels of impact. 2010-11 gave us near strong Nina levels via ONI and MEI but this was also before things changed with the 15/16 Nino.

[so_whats_happening]

Well MEI data will no longer be updated...

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

[Volcanic Winter]

That is absolutely remarkable, like the Pac let loose an enormous heat burst in 2016 that has persisted since. I guess the oceans taking up the majority of warming eventually have to release that latent heat, perhaps it doesn’t happen linearly. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

That escalated quickly.

[Terpeast]

6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Well MEI data will no longer be updated...

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

Wow, that is news. I guess I won't be using the MEI for future outlooks then. Might have to go with RONI or use my own custom dataset or something.

 

5 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

That escalated quickly.

Bring it on. 

I'm not expecting a winter next year imby, so might as well go ape with this nina and hopefully the strong trades push those cooler waters all the way into the maritime content / west pacific warm pool while we're at it.

 

[HailMan06]

19 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Wow, that is news. I guess I won't be using the MEI for future outlooks then. Might have to go with RONI or use my own custom dataset or something.

 

Bring it on. 

I'm not expecting a winter next year imby, so might as well go ape with this nina and hopefully the strong trades push those cooler waters all the way into the maritime content / west pacific warm pool while we're at it.

 

I’m probably going to Ecuador this August so likely looking at dry conditions over there when I go.

[raindancewx]

The El Nino finished at ~28.4C in Nino 3.4 for Dec-Feb. The years most similar to that were 1957-58, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2009-10. The roll forward is very much a Modoki La Nina look if you throw out 1958 and 1992 which are not La Ninas. 

1973-74, 1983-84, and 2010-11 are actually pretty interesting winters with pretty severe cold shots at times in places you wouldn't expect given the overall patterns. I believe 1983-84 and 2010-11 had TX power grid destroying cold shots / Blue Northers.

[Eskimo Joe]

On 2/14/2024 at 1:36 PM, Terpeast said:

Even if this La Nina stays weak-moderate, the surrounding warmth of the oceans and the West Pac will create a very strong La Nina state much like 2022-23. 

With a +QBO and solar cycle beginning to descend, we will likely have less blocking than even 2022-23. With all the cold air bottled up at the pole/Siberia or again dumping to the western NA, I'm thinking AN to much AN temps across the entire CONUS except maybe near normal over the Pac NW. East coast will likely be much AN+++ with 60s being commonplace, with strings of 70 degree days interspersed throughout even the deepest winter months. 

Warmest winter on record across the east? Even higher chance of that happening than this year and last year. 

Canceling winter before summer even hits. Classic Mid Atlantic.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

The El Nino finished at ~28.4C in Nino 3.4 for Dec-Feb. The years most similar to that were 1957-58, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2009-10. The roll forward is very much a Modoki La Nina look if you throw out 1958 and 1992 which are not La Ninas. 

1973-74, 1983-84, and 2010-11 are actually pretty interesting winters with pretty severe cold shots at times in places you wouldn't expect given the overall patterns. I believe 1983-84 and 2010-11 had TX power grid destroying cold shots / Blue Northers.

I would take any of those 3 in a heartbeat (73-74, 83-84, 10-11).

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The El Nino finished at ~28.4C in Nino 3.4 for Dec-Feb. The years most similar to that were 1957-58, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2009-10. The roll forward is very much a Modoki La Nina look if you throw out 1958 and 1992 which are not La Ninas. 

1973-74, 1983-84, and 2010-11 are actually pretty interesting winters with pretty severe cold shots at times in places you wouldn't expect given the overall patterns. I believe 1983-84 and 2010-11 had TX power grid destroying cold shots / Blue Northers.

This year was weird for a hard freeze (although it was brief, it did produce enough ice to cancel school HOU area), El Nino's are usually cooler, but the hard freezes seem to favor La Nina.  3 hard freezes IAH (below 20F) in 4 years is unusual. 

 

Also IMBY-ish, 2010 (only year of more active hurricane era) was quite active, although no mainland North America landfalls, although Igor (not counted, post-tropical) and Tomas (Caribbean) were retired after the season.  (I didn't memorize, I Googled).

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The El Nino finished at ~28.4C in Nino 3.4 for Dec-Feb. The years most similar to that were 1957-58, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2009-10. The roll forward is very much a Modoki La Nina look if you throw out 1958 and 1992 which are not La Ninas. 

1973-74, 1983-84, and 2010-11 are actually pretty interesting winters with pretty severe cold shots at times in places you wouldn't expect given the overall patterns. I believe 1983-84 and 2010-11 had TX power grid destroying cold shots / Blue Northers.

1973 and 1983 quiet ACE years and Modoki La Nina...2010 active ACE and basion-wide eastward lean La Nina.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here are the Modoki La Nina seasons that were preceded by active ACE years.

Maybe we will manage a bit more snowfall next year, assuming a high ACE (can it be less?), but should still be mild.

Possibly a bit cooler with the warmth centered to the south, as opposed to north...like this past year. But the winter will probably be better out west again.

[donsutherland1]

On 3/11/2024 at 4:03 PM, Terpeast said:

Wow, that is news. I guess I won't be using the MEI for future outlooks then. Might have to go with RONI or use my own custom dataset or something.

 

Bring it on. 

I'm not expecting a winter next year imby, so might as well go ape with this nina and hopefully the strong trades push those cooler waters all the way into the maritime content / west pacific warm pool while we're at it.

 

This development is disappointing. I'm not sure why the MEI can't be reconstructed using the JRA-3Q dataset (the successor of the discontinued JRA-55). Of course, if the new dataset excludes one or more variables used in the calculation, that's a different matter.

[roardog]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here are the Modoki La Nina seasons that were preceded by active ACE years.

Maybe we will manage a bit more snowfall next year, assuming a high ACE (can it be less?), but should still be mild.

Possibly a bit cooler with the warmth centered to the south, as opposed to north...like this past year. But the winter will probably be better out west again.

If we could end up with a +2 next winter, it would feel like living in the Arctic compared to these past two winters. 

[Terpeast]

43 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This development is disappointing. I'm not sure why the MEI can't be reconstructed using the JRA-3Q dataset (the successor of the discontinued JRA-55). Of course, if the new dataset excludes one or more variables used in the calculation, that's a different matter.

Yeah, I was disappointed as well. Even though I busted way too high on my snowfall outlook, looking back at how I based my CONUS temp and precip maps on the MEI, I think it actually proved an useful tool that led to fairly successful verification at least with the distribution of temp/precip anomalies. Enough to make me think that I can use it again in future outlooks... then they take it away.

[Snowstorms]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here are the Modoki La Nina seasons that were preceded by active ACE years.

Maybe we will manage a bit more snowfall next year, assuming a high ACE (can it be less?), but should still be mild.

Possibly a bit cooler with the warmth centered to the south, as opposed to north...like this past year. But the winter will probably be better out west again.

2008-09 and 2011-12 were second year La Nina's preceded by much stronger La Nina's the year before. So I don't know if that matters from an analog perspective. 2016-17 hardly lasted for more than 5 months and only bottomed out at -0.7. 2016-17 could be an analog depending on the strength but that's far out anyways. 

 

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

If we could end up with a +2 next winter, it would feel like living in the Arctic compared to these past two winters. 

Still a warm signal. Even if only +2 based on older analogs (pre 2016 super nino), one would need to adjust to today’s climate. Like +4 or something like that. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Latest CPC ENSO Probability: 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Latest CPC ENSO Probability: 

Quite the turnaround. >60% nino to >60% nina within 3 months. Has such a transition happened that quickly before?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

32 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Quite the turnaround. >60% nino to >60% nina within 3 months. Has such a transition happened that quickly before?

Yes, it's happened in 1973, 1988, 1998, and 2010 - the four years that transitioned from a strong or super el nino into a strong la nina.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yes, it's happened in 1973, 1988, 1998, and 2010 - the four years that transitioned from a strong or super el nino into a strong la nina.

Thanks, that gives me a clue to which analogs would make a good starting set and add others based on QBO and PDO (and of course, adjust each warmer by a couple degrees...)

 

[michsnowfreak]

On 3/13/2024 at 9:38 AM, roardog said:

If we could end up with a +2 next winter, it would feel like living in the Arctic compared to these past two winters. 

The more important takeaway for our region is in Ninas, the good snow seasons outnumber the bad handily. 

[michsnowfreak]

On 3/13/2024 at 1:07 PM, Terpeast said:

Still a warm signal. Even if only +2 based on older analogs (pre 2016 super nino), one would need to adjust to today’s climate. Like +4 or something like that. 

Adjusting +2 to +4 for "todays climate"? I would not consider the fact that 5 of the past 9 winters have been very mild up here enough to double a departure on a set of 4 analogs which include the cold winter of 2008-09, and the mild winter of 1998-98, especially since winters of the mid-late 1990s were far milder here than winters of the 2000s to mid-2010s. Yes, we have certainly made a turnaround with that strong Nino in 2015-16, but each winter has their own character. Historically the roller coaster pattern of a La Nina, while frustrating to us snowcover lovers, is what can aid in a banner snow season in MI (see 1998-98, 2007-08).

[so_whats_happening]

Gotta say it was pretty cool to see this happen. Im not sure if it is connected somehow but watch off Panama and then a few days later west of the Galapagos.

 

[roardog]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The more important takeaway for our region is in Ninas, the good snow seasons outnumber the bad handily. 

The ‘22-‘23 winter was probably about the worst Nina pattern we can get for this area. The western trough/eastern ridge is expected in a Nina but it was amplified to the extreme. If it would have been even a little less amplified, it would have been much more interesting here. It was great for Minnesota though.