2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

Funny how we almost need to hope La Nina goes nuts this fall to have a "lull" period in the hostile forcing during the winter....almost akin to timing the intensity cycles in the tropics in the hope that RI can lead to an ERC pre landfall.

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, I would love to see Bluewave try the seasonal thing...he would be great at that. The again, maybe I wouldn't because it would make fall so much more depressing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll joking aside, so far....this appears to the easiest winter outlook that I have done since 2014. Not much ambuguity overall IMO.

[snowman19]

@Gawx

[snowman19]

Textbook tropical instability waves. Beautiful. Also, this is NOT developing as an east-based event:
 

[George001]

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Textbook tropical instability waves. Beautiful. Also, this is NOT developing as an east-based event:
 

Yeah, it started later than the models initially thought, but the Nina is finally developing with the cold pool expanding west into the ENSO 3.4 and 4 regions. Although this is a later developing event, that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be weak, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if it becomes a moderate Nina by ONI (around -1.1 or so peak).

[michsnowfreak]

After the last few years of enso threads, it's apparent that the east tends to prefer Nino and the midwest/Lakes prefer Nina. But I would think that for those further south, say from NYC south, winter is much less dependent on sustainability and more on a possible huge storm or two. So just as a strong nino didn't produce as you expected doesn't necessarily mean all hope is lost with a nina either.

[roardog]

53 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

After the last few years of enso threads, it's apparent that the east tends to prefer Nino and the midwest/Lakes prefer Nina. But I would think that for those further south, say from NYC south, winter is much less dependent on sustainability and more on a possible huge storm or two. So just as a strong nino didn't produce as you expected doesn't necessarily mean all hope is lost with a nina either.

After the last couple of winters, I wouldn’t even mind a 02-03 style winter that gave the east coast lots of snow but gave us respectable cold even though it was fairly dry, especially west and north of SE Michigan. 

[michsnowfreak]

46 minutes ago, roardog said:

After the last couple of winters, I wouldn’t even mind a 02-03 style winter that gave the east coast lots of snow but gave us respectable cold even though it was fairly dry, especially west and north of SE Michigan. 

You wont hear me complain about another 2002-03. 69" here. Unusually huge difference between Detroit (61") and Chicago (29"). I'd have no problem ordering a cold clipper express and some thick lake ice while the east has fun, but obviously that type of pattern looks unlikely this coming Winter. The last 2 winters were frustrating, but not nearly as much as they were for parts of the east. It was the perfect example of how warm winters produce some real dynamic snow systems up here. 3 or 4 widespread thundersnow systems the last two years among other things. But the deep winter element was missing outside of a week here or there. I'm liking the looks for this winter snow-wise so far statewide, but many things can and will change before the first flakes fly.

[GaWx]

OISST based Nino 3.4 anomaly is still in a free fall. It just dropped another 0.1 and has now dropped a whopping 0.5C over the last 4 days to -0.33! That’s the fastest 4 day drop back to at least 2022! The equivalent RONI snapshot is quite possibly already approaching moderate Niña territory.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

After the last few years of enso threads, it's apparent that the east tends to prefer Nino and the midwest/Lakes prefer Nina. But I would think that for those further south, say from NYC south, winter is much less dependent on sustainability and more on a possible huge storm or two. So just as a strong nino didn't produce as you expected doesn't necessarily mean all hope is lost with a nina either.

“Nino” and “Nina” at least traditionally defined are becoming less relevant since about 5 years ago when we switched to this Western Pacific on fire regime, which keeps the elements of Nina in place during the winter regardless of the official regime, since Nina patterns are as much about the W Pacific condition as much as the E Pacific. It keeps a rampaging Pacific jet going and as a result either very brief or nonexistent cold coming far south from Canada, and favorable tracks for storms unable to get established-for a good nor’easter here that can snow you need the pattern to relax at least a bit and the SE Ridge (which has also been rampaging) to be present but muted enough to not force an inland track. 2020-21 did get the MJO out of the unfavorable phases enough to allow windows for more favorable outcomes here but it’s been the rarity since this new W PAC regime started.

N New England down to I-90 and the Midwest do just fine in these patterns that promote cutters and with a Nina once again developing officially I’d be excited/optimistic if I lived in Michigan too. Unfortunately here looks very much like another stinker. Our one hope is the high ACE and maybe the Nina can be more East based. I never thought though that NYC with a 30” snow average like we came close to with the new 91-20 averages was sustainable-we had to pay the piper sooner or later. Until the W PAC cools down so this ridiculous Pacific jet slows down we’re very likely screwed where I am and on south. And probably most near I-80 and south. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

ENSO subsurface is dropping again.. tomorrow we might pop a -6c max area on TAO/Triton maps. This is impressive, considering the SOI has never been above +4 monthly for the whole event so far..  I think the Atlantic hurricane season should start to get going when the MJO becomes favorable. We might see more big storms, vs # of storms this year, as such a thing is correlated to La Nina conditions in the subsurface. 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

ENSO subsurface is dropping again.. tomorrow we might pop a -6c max area on TAO/Triton maps. This is impressive, considering the SOI has never been above +4 monthly for the whole event so far..  I think the Atlantic hurricane season should start to get going when the MJO becomes favorable. We might see more big storms, vs # of storms this year, as such a thing is correlated to La Nina conditions in the subsurface. 

Yeah. We haven't seen a 7-day drop like this so far this year.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

AAO is literally falling off the charts after recent Stratosphere warming. 

It's important to note the time lag. The 10mb warming occurred July 6-19, making this +10-25 days to +20-35 days. 10mb warmings don't have the strongest correlated impact with the surface immediately, but with +time (how much time depends on when in the year it happens, closer to early Winter more +time, closer to late Winter less +time). I found the sweet spot for early to mid July in the Southern Hemisphere to be +20-25 days. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

You guys might find this interesting.. there is a +correlation. What are the odds the very north pole has the strongest lagged anomaly?

Hitting +0.5, which is 3 out of every 4 times. v Displaced in Dec, but you get the point

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 7/31/2024 at 3:59 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You guys might find this interesting.. there is a +correlation. What are the odds the very north pole has the strongest lagged anomaly?

Hitting +0.5, which is 3 out of every 4 times. v Displaced in Dec, but you get the point

Maybe some support for a -AO this winter, not that I think the east would benefit from it much with the state of the Pacific....

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

AAO is literally falling off the charts after recent Stratosphere warming.

The last time the AAO dropped this low in late July and early August during a La Niña was in 2011.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.aao.cdas.z700.19790101_current.csv

 

2011	7	28	-4.1244120597839355
2011	7	29	-4.727965831756592
2011	7	30	-4.49726676940918
2011	7	31	-4.067351818084717
2011	8	1	-4.2525835037231445
2011	8	2	-4.324845314025879

 

 

[snowman19]

18 hours ago, George001 said:

Yeah, it started later than the models initially thought, but the Nina is finally developing with the cold pool expanding west into the ENSO 3.4 and 4 regions. Although this is a later developing event, that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be weak, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if it becomes a moderate Nina by ONI (around -1.1 or so peak).

If you take a look at the animation, you can see the tropical instability waves (cooling) diffuse throughout region 3.4, pushing into region 4. That is not indicative of an east-based event. If you look at how a true east-based Niña develops (i.e. 2017), it was strictly confined to regions 1+2, 3 and the far eastern portion of 3.4. This one however, clearly is not…..

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The last time the AAO dropped this low in late July and early August during a La Niña was in 2011.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.aao.cdas.z700.19790101_current.csv

 

2011	7	28	-4.1244120597839355
2011	7	29	-4.727965831756592
2011	7	30	-4.49726676940918
2011	7	31	-4.067351818084717
2011	8	1	-4.2525835037231445
2011	8	2	-4.324845314025879

 

 

Of the recent Nina’s, over the last 30 years, where a similar scenario happened, you only had one translate into a really favorable AO winter (1995), the rest (2001, 2011, 2007), not so much…..

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I'm not sure if this has been done before, but can someone do a blend map for Dec-Feb 1998-99 and 2007-08, as well as a spring (Feb-April or March-May) 1999 and 2008 blend.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Of the recent Nina’s, over the last 30 years, where a similar scenario happened, you only had one translate into a really favorable AO winter (1995), the rest (2001, 2011, 2007), not so much…..

I have been saying 2007 is a decent analog and that yieleded a respectable winter for most of NE.

[snowman19]

[rainsucks]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm not sure if this has been done before, but can someone do a blend map for Dec-Feb 1998-99 and 2007-08, as well as a spring (Feb-April or March-May) 1999 and 2008 blend.

That would be a pretty ugly spring for many us. Really hope nothing like that happens

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have been saying 2007 is a decent analog and that yieleded a respectable winter for most of NE.

BTW, this just shows that there is an avenue for a decent season to the north....didn't mean to imply that one should be expected.

[brooklynwx99]

still thinking we're getting a weak to perhaps moderate Nina, but the higher-end moderate to strong event per ONI looks quite unlikely at this point

however, even if we get something along the lines of a -0.5 trimonthly ONI, we could still get a RONI reading that's in the -0.9 to -1.1 range

[GaWx]

Finally a bounce of OISST 3.4 (may just be dead-cat):

[Spartman]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Finally a bounce of OISST 3.4 (may just be dead-cat):

La Niña cancel

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

The last time the AAO dropped this low in late July and early August during a La Niña was in 2011.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.aao.cdas.z700.19790101_current.csv

 

2011	7	28	-4.1244120597839355
2011	7	29	-4.727965831756592
2011	7	30	-4.49726676940918
2011	7	31	-4.067351818084717
2011	8	1	-4.2525835037231445
2011	8	2	-4.324845314025879

 

I'm surprised there is another -5 reading at the same time of year, not too long ago.. I guess with less topography, Antarctica does it more easily. 

Is 1100 hPa an all time record? 

Edit: 

Quote

The highest sea-level air pressure ever recorded was 1083.8 mb (32.01 in. Hg) in Agata, Siberia on December 31, 1968

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe some support for a -AO this winter, not I think the east would benefit from it much wwith the state of the Pacific....

I think the point is negative AAO and AO is a decadal state. This makes the reversal forecast interesting this Winter, with 3 of the last 4 Winters having +H5 anomalies over Greenland (-AO), and the one that was not was neutral. 

But we are in this pattern where -AO is heavily correlating with --PNA.. If the NAO does go negative this Winter, or the there are -NAO periods, I would bet the N. Pacific High flexes at the same time.