GaWx Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 6 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Just a quick update June and July TAO data and Hovmollers. You can see that the Easterlies did try to have an impact on the pattern but have since been replaced with weaker trades. Maybe we are shifting the forcing like Bluewave had mentioned in earlier posts as possibility going forward. The thing that continues to get my attention the most is the very stubborn moderate warm layer in the top 75-100 meters. It just won’t go away though it would have to (even though this is for only 2N to 2S) for this to end up La Niña per ONI. Actually, usually 2N to 2S has stronger anomalies than 5N to 5S in either El Niño or La Niña since the strongest anomalies in either tend to be nearest the equator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 1 hour ago, thunderbolt said: https://x.com/wxpatel/status/1816981513420124267?s=46&t=9oYN55kJQkQ18l6qbtT9mw Said it yesterday, if this is a cold-neutral Niña fail, 01-02 becomes an analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 19 minutes ago, GaWx said: The thing that continues to get my attention the most is the very stubborn moderate warm layer in the top 75-100 meters. It just won’t go away though it would have to (even though this is for only 2N to 2S) for this to end up La Niña per ONI. Actually, usually 2N to 2S has stronger anomalies than 5N to 5S in either El Niño or La Niña since the strongest anomalies in either tend to be nearest the equator. It’s interesting how strong the 500mb La Niña pattern is across North America is despite the official ONI lagging behind. This -EPO +PNA and strong WAR east of New England were associated which much cooler Nino 3.4 ONIs during the summers of 2018, 2021, and 2022. Those 3 so far are the best 500 mb matches this summer. So my guess is that the strong -PDO and WPAC warm pool are driving this robust La Niña background state at the present time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 16 minutes ago, GaWx said: The thing that continues to get my attention the most is the very stubborn moderate warm layer in the top 75-100 meters. It just won’t go away though it would have to (even though this is for only 2N to 2S) for this to end up La Niña per ONI. Actually, usually 2N to 2S has stronger anomalies than 5N to 5S in either El Niño or La Niña since the strongest anomalies in either tend to be nearest the equator. It is trying latest 100-180 subsurface reading shows we are closing in on levels we saw back in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 8 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: It is trying latest 100-180 subsurface reading shows we are closing in on levels we saw back in April. Why is this subsurface animation in top 75-100 meters (solid BN E of 140W) disagreeing so much with the subsurface animation you posted earlier (moderate AN E of 140W)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 22 minutes ago, GaWx said: Why is this subsurface animation in top 75-100 meters (solid BN E of 140W) disagreeing so much with the subsurface animation you posted earlier (moderate AN E of 140W)? The 1 is TAO/TRITON and the other is NOAA/CPC. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The 1 is TAO/TRITON and the other is NOAA/CPC. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml Thanks. But I’m still wondering despite them being from different sources why they’re not even close with one near +1C and the other several degrees below 0C! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 On 7/26/2024 at 1:49 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, you got the high precip correlation of +NAO, and severe cold of -EPO. Hasn't happened together like that too many times historically. Dec 1983 is one, although it was a near neutral NAO. Dec 1989 had +NAO, but precip is usually better in Jan and Feb. I could never explain why it was wall to wall so cold and snowy. With near record ice cover the lakes didn't do anything, it was just storm after storm and bitter cold. On the days it didn't snow the strong winds were drifting snow everywhere. Truly THE winter of a lifetime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 How about this for a two day drop of Nino 3.4 anomaly per OISST…it plunged 0.3 C to -0.125C! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 The PDO is falling back down along with it. It’s back down to -2.15 on WCS, which means the NOAA version is probably back to near -3 or below now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Why is this subsurface animation in top 75-100 meters (solid BN E of 140W) disagreeing so much with the subsurface animation you posted earlier (moderate AN E of 140W)? It could be many reasons. This version is 5N-5S, CPC maybe uses a different buoy source versus TAO, CPC may lag a bit to TAO display, etc. Unfortunately I do not have those answers other than TAO is sourced around 2N-2S versus CPC which is 5N-5S. Just showing all the updates available to us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 If a strong or super el nino is going to form, you'll be able to see it in the subsurface well in advance. I think we can all agree with the subsurface we have right now that there is pretty much no chance of a strong el nino happening in 2025-26. If a strong el nino were to form in 2026-27, you should see a warm pool (like the ones below) in the subsurface by the summer of 2025: The warm pools in the subsurface in June 2008 and June 2022 preceded the strong el ninos of 2009-10 and 2023-24, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted July 29 Author Share Posted July 29 7 hours ago, GaWx said: How about this for a two day drop of Nino 3.4 anomaly per OISST…it plunged 0.3 C to -0.125C! ENSO neutral isn’t going to happen. It will be a La Niña Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Latest CDC reanalysis SST map.. looks ugly, but we have had miracles like 2013 come from this: With the NAO prediction area coming in very +, I think that changes the formula from the last few years. Since 2013, +NAO's in Nov-March have been correlating with -EPO/+PNA.. but the La Nina and seasonal trends from the past 7 years should keep the PNA negative. But I am starting to think we will see a lot of -EPO. In the northern areas of the CONUS (interior NE and Great Lakes), that is a favorable pattern for snow.. +NAO being a high precip correlation and -EPO being neutral precip and colder than average. We also haven't had a true +NAO Winter since 19-20. Here's a composite from the last 4 Winters.. it's been mostly -AO and -PNA: This Winter I think we could even see a reversal from that map north of 45N, with the mean N. Pacific High Pressure being the only continuum.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Looks like a steady rise in the QBO this month. It officially just went positive (westerly) in June:https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo_phase_plot.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: But I am starting to think we will see a lot of -EPO. In the northern areas of the CONUS (interior NE and Great Lakes), that is a favorable pattern for snow.. Depends on the MJO. Frequent MJO 4-7s will get you -EPO/- PNAs at times when the Aleutian ridge becomes more poleward. A -EPO/-PNA is a warm pattern with a La Niña in the Northeast. This is when we hit 80° back in February 2018. In order to get it cold in the Northeast we need a -EPO +PNA like we got from December 2017 into early January 2018. But that required a MJO 8 pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Latest CDC reanalysis SST map.. looks ugly, but we have had miracles like 2013 come from this: With the NAO prediction area coming in very +, I think that changes the formula from the last few years. Since 2013, +NAO's in Nov-March have been correlating with -EPO/+PNA.. but the La Nina and seasonal trends from the past 7 years should keep the PNA negative. But I am starting to think we will see a lot of -EPO. In the northern areas of the CONUS (interior NE and Great Lakes), that is a favorable pattern for snow.. +NAO being a high precip correlation and -EPO being neutral precip and colder than average. We also haven't had a true +NAO Winter since 19-20. Here's a composite from the last 4 Winters.. it's been mostly -AO and -PNA: This Winter I think we could even see a reversal from that map north of 45N, with the mean N. Pacific High Pressure being the only continuum.. How do you figure? The vast majority of DM seasons have been averaging positive, including last season...unless you mean exceedingly positive... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Don't look now, but just about all modeling gets MJO forcing into 8/1 for at least a few days. Probably halts Enso cooling for a bit. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We also haven't had a true +NAO Winter since 19-20. 2021 12 0.2885 2022 1 1.0778 2022 2 1.6830 2022 3 0.7677 2023 12 1.9365 2024 1 0.2060 2024 2 1.0894 2024 3 -0.2141 So, 2021-2 DM NAO averaged +1.0. So, 2023-4 DM NAO averaged +0.8 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: 2021 12 0.2885 2022 1 1.0778 2022 2 1.6830 2022 3 0.7677 2023 12 1.9365 2024 1 0.2060 2024 2 1.0894 2024 3 -0.2141 So, 2021-2 DM NAO averaged +1.0. So, 2023-4 DM NAO averaged +0.8 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii Its like saying we're due for some MC continent forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 CDAS has a cold bias but it has recently been trending cooler, consistent with OISST. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 41 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Don't look now, but just about all modeling gets MJO forcing into 8/1 for at least a few days. Probably halts Enso cooling for a bit. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Yep. Cold-neutral coming. 01-02 analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep. Cold-neutral coming. 01-02 analog Well, with the RONI it would still be weak Nina even if ONI remained neutral, which I doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep. Cold-neutral coming. 01-02 analog I said it halts it for a bit. EDIT: I should have added that although I haven't looked, I'd be surprised if Enso 4 was as warm as it is now, and that would have an effect on sensible weam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 57 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, with the RONI it would still be weak Nina even if ONI remained neutral, which I doubt. I was kind of joking lol I’m still confident we see a La Niña. However, if it fails and we really do go cold-neutral/La Nada, then my analog becomes 01-02. That part wasn’t a joke 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: I was kind of joking lol I’m still confident we see a La Niña. However, if it fails and we really do go cold-neutral/La Nada, then my analog becomes 01-02. That part wasn’t a joke I think we would need the ONI on the positive side of neutral given the base state of the extra tropical Pacific....either way, I agree it doesn't look great for NE winter. "Best case" in terms of ENSO maybe a cold-neutral ONI.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 23 hours ago, GaWx said: The PDO is falling back down along with it. It’s back down to -2.15 on WCS, which means the NOAA version is probably back to near -3 or below now. Yeah, it’s being driven by the continuing record marine heatwave near Japan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 5 hours ago, GaWx said: 2021 12 0.2885 2022 1 1.0778 2022 2 1.6830 2022 3 0.7677 2023 12 1.9365 2024 1 0.2060 2024 2 1.0894 2024 3 -0.2141 So, 2021-2 DM NAO averaged +1.0. So, 2023-4 DM NAO averaged +0.8 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii I also consider 2022-23 a +NAO winter overall: 2022 12 -0.1456 2023 1 1.2503 2023 2 0.9227 2023 3 -1.1088 Yes, the average is only +0.23 which may have some believe it a neutral NAO winter. But the -NAO episodes, while strong, happened on the shoulder months when, in terms of snowfall, may have helped a lot more had they occurred during mid-winter months Jan or Feb or both. In other words, if we’re looking at yet another +NAO/-ENSO winter, give me just one -NAO month and don’t wait until mid March to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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