2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I figured. In any event it will be interesting to see how the season does unfold. it will also be interesting to see how la nina develops. Certainly early signs are encouraging here for a MUCH better winter next year, but a lllllong way to go.

I don't see how it can be much worse anywhere east of the Mississippi and north of about 40* latitude. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Top 10 ACE years/snowfall following cold season

1933 DTW: 42.6"

2005 DTW: 36.3"

1893 DTW: 45.5"

1926 DTW: 46.3"

1995 DTW: 27.6"

2004 DTW: 63.8"

2017 DTW: 61.0"

1950 DTW: 42.2"

1961 DTW: 28.1"

1998 DTW: 49.5"

AVG DTW: 44.3” vs 41.1” mean (8% above mean) all years since 1874; 2 MAN, 3 AN, 2 NN, 2 BN, 1 MBN; 7 out of 10 above median.

 

I also note that for Modoki La Ninas snowfall is also above avg:

1973-74: 49.2"

1975-76: 55.9"

1983-84: 51.8"

1988-89: 25.1"

1998-99: 49.5"

2000-01: 39.0"

2008-09: 65.7"

2010-11: 69.1"

2016-17: 37.9"

Avg: 49.2 vs 41.1” mean (20% above mean) all years since 1874.

 

Question though and I apologize if I missed it. Are we just assuming this years ACE will be high? Or is it a foregone conclusion?

On what planet was 2010-2011 a Modoki La Nina?

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see how it can be much worse anywhere east of the Mississippi and north of about 40* latitude. 

No arguments from me there. 

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

On what planet was 2010-2011 a Modoki La Nina?

My ENSO knowledge is quite limited, so I go with what I read online lol. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation#:~:text=Recent years when La Niña,2011%2C and 2016–2017.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

No arguments from me there. 

It's pretty horrifying to see all these wildfires all over the middle of the country.

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

On what planet was 2010-2011 a Modoki La Nina?

I thought he meant Moderate* La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

My ENSO knowledge is quite limited, so I go with what I read online lol. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation#:~:text=Recent years when La Niña,2011%2C and 2016–2017.

It's not a Modoki at all.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought he meant Moderate* La Nina

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not a Modoki at all.

Wikipedia was wrong. Imagine that .

 

Can you confirm the other years were correct? Or do you have a list of modoki years?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

Wikipedia was wrong. Imagine that .

 

Can you confirm the other years were correct? Or do you have a list of modoki years?

My list since 1950 is:

1973-1974, 1983-1984, 1988-1989, 1998-1999, 2000-2001, 2008-2009, 2011-2012, 2016-2017 and 2022-2023

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's pretty horrifying to see all these wildfires all over the middle of the country.

It's definitely unlike any winter I can recall. The good part is that it's unfathomable that next winter or any winter in the near future will be like this in this region. The winter has basically been non-existent (by midwest/Great Lakes standards) outside of that 2 week stretch in January. It was a pretty good stretch of deep winter, so had it not been as potent as it was, the winter would look even worse.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The key to having a shot in Modoki is remaining weak and/or having a very high ACE.

[michsnowfreak]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My list since 1950 is:

1973-1974, 1983-1984, 1988-1989, 1998-1999, 2000-2001, 2008-2009, 2011-2012, 2016-2017 and 2022-2023

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The key to having a shot in Modoki is remaining weak and/or having a very high ACE.

Thanks! Hard pass on '88-89 & '11-12. But one good thing here is that for whatever reason, strength of the Nina doesn't matter (unlike Nino). All strengths of Nina have good/bad seasons but lean towards the good ones. Strong Ninas actually are the snowiest strength.

 

Nino to Nina transition years and high ACE are also things I like. And of course, the age old "law of average" that after a highly anamolous winter the next one is the opposite type.

 

As the tropical season and Nina develops throughout the year, this should continue to be an informative thread.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My list since 1950 is:

1973-1974, 1983-1984, 1988-1989, 1998-1999, 2000-2001, 2008-2009, 2011-2012, 2016-2017 and 2022-2023

the results are of course mixed, but some of those winters were truly godawful lol.

[George001]

47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the results are of course mixed, but some of those winters were truly godawful lol.

Yeah there were a couple good ones in there (00-01 and 08-09), but most of those winters were bad. The Niña doesn’t need to be weak, but I would like to avoid a modoki at all costs. I actually care about that more than the raw strength. I’d rather take my chances with a strong basin wide Niña than a weak modoki. 

[michsnowfreak]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

the results are of course mixed, but some of those winters were truly godawful lol.

 

14 hours ago, George001 said:

Yeah there were a couple good ones in there (00-01 and 08-09), but most of those winters were bad. The Niña doesn’t need to be weak, but I would like to avoid a modoki at all costs. I actually care about that more than the raw strength. I’d rather take my chances with a strong basin wide Niña than a weak modoki. 

I'm fine with strong. Strong ninas are actually the snowiest here. Modoki have such wildly different outcomes in snow & temps, makes you wonder how much of a player the modoki part is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, George001 said:

Yeah there were a couple good ones in there (00-01 and 08-09), but most of those winters were bad. The Niña doesn’t need to be weak, but I would like to avoid a modoki at all costs. I actually care about that more than the raw strength. I’d rather take my chances with a strong basin wide Niña than a weak modoki. 

I don't agree. I would take a weak event, regardless of orientation ....the reason you have good events that were weaker Modoki, like 2000-2001 and 2008-2009 is because other, extratropical elements take on more importance with respect to the predominate forcing.  1983-1984 was decent, too....even 2016-2017.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't agree. I would take a weak event, regardless of orientation ....the reason you have good events that were weaker Modoki, like 2000-2001 and 2008-2009 is because other, extratropical elements take on more importance with respect to the predominate forcing.  1983-1984 was decent, too....even 2016-2017.

Of the 25 la nina winters since 1950, 15 of them I would gladly take a repeat, and only 3 are a big hell no.

 

After multiple record snow years spoiled weenies rotten circa 2005-2015, a lot vocally had that mindset that an average winter or even a slightly better than average winter was just not acceptable. Sounds so ridiculous now.

[George001]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Of the 25 la nina winters since 1950, 15 of them I would gladly take a repeat, and only 3 are a big hell no.

 

After multiple record snow years spoiled weenies rotten circa 2005-2015, a lot vocally had that mindset that an average winter or even a slightly better than average winter was just not acceptable. Sounds so ridiculous now.

Yeah Im not asking for an incredible winter at this point. Give me normal temps + normal snow and I’ll be happy. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Yeah Im not asking for an incredible winter at this point. Give me normal temps + normal snow and I’ll be happy. 

Me too! We are only on our 2nd subpar winter here, and that's MORE than enough for me. Last year wasn't too bad snowfall wise, but way too mild. This year absolutely sucked. This is my 29th winter of measuring snow in my backyard. My lowest snow season was 25.5" (2011-12) & highest 96.2" (2013-14). I have only received 20.6" to date this season.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Of the 25 la nina winters since 1950, 15 of them I would gladly take a repeat, and only 3 are a big hell no.

 

After multiple record snow years spoiled weenies rotten circa 2005-2015, a lot vocally had that mindset that an average winter or even a slightly better than average winter was just not acceptable. Sounds so ridiculous now.

People would kill even for 20 inches of snow here (which is much less than our 30 inch average.)

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looking at some stuff, I think the next 3 seasons will be an uphill climb....try to get near climo snowfall and if you are lucky enough to do so, then take it and run. However, I think the late 2020's will have a pretty epic flip.

These are my thoughts on the next few years.....not too optimistic, but there is an end to this east coast horror show in sight, AFAIC.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

These are my thoughts on the next few years.....not too optimistic, but there is an end to this east coast horror show in sight, AFAIC.

Regardless, Id have to imagine this year is rock bottom for the east.

 

We havent been doing as widespread poorly in the midwest/Lakes for the most part, but this winter has to be rock bottom for the upper midwest especially. Even though they have had good snow years recently (just last year in fact), this winter is so unlike anything Ive ever seen for those places. To unseat the historic warm winter of 1877-78 (also a strong Nino) as many did is crazy. And I have NEVER seen a winter with near bare ground in northern MI in Feb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Regardless, Id have to imagine this year is rock bottom for the east.

 

We havent been doing as widespread poorly in the midwest/Lakes for the most part, but this winter has to be rock bottom for the upper midwest especially. Even though they have had good snow years recently (just last year in fact), this winter is so unlike anything Ive ever seen for those places. To unseat the historic warm winter of 1877-78 (also a strong Nino) as many did is crazy. And I have NEVER seen a winter with near bare ground in northern MI in Feb.

As warm as the lakes have remained, not even enough cold could be mustered to avail of that via LES....the cold was all in Eurasia. 

[michsnowfreak]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As warm as the lakes have remained, not even enough cold could be mustered to avail of that via LES....the cold was all in Eurasia. 

Yup. The arctic blast in Jan definitely got the Lakes moving, but theres only so much you can get in a 10-12 day period. Friend of mine who does plowing/salting had a 100-hour week in mid-late Jan and the rest of the season just isolated saltings and maybe 2 other plows.

 

I follow this group on facebook "view from my window" where people all around the world post pics of the view out their window, and seeing lots of people in Eurasia posting and "complaining" about too much snow. Lots of them saying things like "I like snow, but this is too much". Needless to say, snow lovers from the northern US from Minnesota to Maine did not appreciate the bragging 

[so_whats_happening]

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Regardless, Id have to imagine this year is rock bottom for the east.

 

We havent been doing as widespread poorly in the midwest/Lakes for the most part, but this winter has to be rock bottom for the upper midwest especially. Even though they have had good snow years recently (just last year in fact), this winter is so unlike anything Ive ever seen for those places. To unseat the historic warm winter of 1877-78 (also a strong Nino) as many did is crazy. And I have NEVER seen a winter with near bare ground in northern MI in Feb.

This year while in many areas wasn't great at all, there was one spot that managed to do well. PA was the hot spot for average to above average snowfall this year and at that a rather localized area from about Scranton to Allentown and back to about Harrisburg/ State College area. We managed about 18-19" on the winter which is below average on our 26" yearly snowfall. This was not a bad winter for our neck of the woods but last winter was horrific (0.9" for the entire winter). 2020/21 was our last above average winter (~34") and that came with a nice storm in February and a nice event from the huge storm that pummeled BGM back in December 2020.

At this point im rooting for a neutral event, while one year I would love to have a revisit of 09-10 pop up im on the lets get to average train at this point.

I have been noticing though when we do get these marginal events things are just a bit too warm for us anymore when we used to be able to manage to stay slightly on the cooler side of things. I do wonder if the warm Atlantic is causing this issue. That hurts us immensely on those quick pickups of 2-4" that would help get to near average.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

This year while in many areas wasn't great at all, there was one spot that managed to do well. PA was the hot spot for average to above average snowfall this year and at that a rather localized area from about Scranton to Allentown and back to about Harrisburg/ State College area. We managed about 18-19" on the winter which is below average on our 26" yearly snowfall. This was not a bad winter for our neck of the woods but last winter was horrific (0.9" for the entire winter). 2020/21 was our last above average winter (~34") and that came with a nice storm in February and a nice event from the huge storm that pummeled BGM back in December 2020.

At this point im rooting for a neutral event, while one year I would love to have a revisit of 09-10 pop up im on the lets get to average train at this point.

I have been noticing though when we do get these marginal events things are just a bit too warm for us anymore when we used to be able to manage to stay slightly on the cooler side of things. I do wonder if the warm Atlantic is causing this issue. That hurts us immensely on those quick pickups of 2-4" that would help get to near average.

If we were going to get a revisit of 09-10, it would have been this year with the strong el nino, but as they say "no two el ninos are alike". Our last true enso neutral season was 2013-14, a blockbuster snow season (although the year before, 2012-13, was another enso neutral season, but not a great snow season). However, it's unlikely that we're getting that in 2024-25. The most likely scenario is the strong la nina. Good news: The last strong la nina was 2010-11, which followed the strong el nino of 2009-10. We had an above average snow season in 2010-11, and the Atlantic was warm in 2010. 10-11 is one of the best analog years (along with 73-74) for 2024-25.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Early lead candidate for me is 1998-1999, which woud actually be a notable improvement over this past monstrosity.

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

High Ace/+QBO strong La Nina rebounding off of a very strong El Nino in the midst over an overall hostile, +WPO predominate Pacific regime.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we were going to get a revisit of 09-10, it would have been this year with the strong el nino, but as they say "no two el ninos are alike". Our last true enso neutral season was 2013-14, a blockbuster snow season (although the year before, 2012-13, was another enso neutral season, but not a great snow season). However, it's unlikely that we're getting that in 2024-25. The most likely scenario is the strong la nina. Good news: The last strong la nina was 2010-11, which followed the strong el nino of 2009-10. We had an above average snow season in 2010-11, and the Atlantic was warm in 2010. 10-11 is one of the best analog years (along with 73-74) for 2024-25.

The western Pacific is what nixed that...it was like polar opposite. That season was a very strong -WPO, while this year was ++WPO.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

List of strong and moderate la ninas since 1950 (based on Ensemble and NOAA):

Strong: 1955-56 (5 - considered Strong by Ensemble, Moderate by NOAA), 1973-74 (6), 1975-76 (5 - considered Strong by NOAA, Moderate by Ensemble), 1988-89 (6), 1998-99 (5 - considered Strong by NOAA, Moderate by Ensemble), 1999-2000 (6), 2007-08 (6), 2010-11 (6)

Moderate: 1949-50 (4), 1970-71 (4), 1984-85 (3 - considered Moderate by Ensemble, Weak by NOAA), 1995-96 (3 - considered Moderate by NOAA, Weak by Ensemble), 2011-12 (4), 2020-21 (4), 2021-22 (4), 2022-23 (3 - considered Moderate by Ensemble, Weak by NOAA)

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

List of strong and moderate la ninas since 1950 (based on Ensemble and NOAA):

Strong: 1955-56 (5 - considered Strong by Ensemble, Moderate by NOAA), 1973-74 (6), 1975-76 (5 - considered Strong by NOAA, Moderate by Ensemble), 1988-89 (6), 1998-99 (5 - considered Strong by NOAA, Moderate by Ensemble), 1999-2000 (6), 2007-08 (6), 2010-11 (6)

Moderate: 1949-50 (4), 1970-71 (4), 1984-85 (3 - considered Moderate by Ensemble, Weak by NOAA), 1995-96 (3 - considered Moderate by NOAA, Weak by Ensemble), 2011-12 (4), 2020-21 (4), 2021-22 (4), 2022-23 (3 - considered Moderate by Ensemble, Weak by NOAA)

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