2024-2025 La Nina

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Warm top 100m layer is still hanging on: like a weak Niño (though neutral on relative basis) above solid La Niña:

The N. Pacific pattern will continue to correlate with the -200m subsurface. That will be the case until/unless the subsurface max moderates to ~-2c. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I watch the MJO and 850 wind anomaly forecasts on this site that are updated daily and watch how the stronger trade forecasts have gotten weaker and fractured as time progresses. It may change at some point, but it hasn't yet.

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

If we don't pick it up at the surface, I wonder if a warm pool will start to develop in the western subsurface region, below Nino 4, and the general subsurface "Moderate Nina" will start to moderate in the Fall.. Next years ENSO is pretty big for the direction we will be heading multi-year, and if we start to see the subsurface moderate in the Fall/Winter it would favor more +ENSO conditions next year. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would guess somewhat below normal snowfall here right now, though probably not as bad as last year...maybe like 40-50" or 45-55".

I would take the under on that. 

You would go with 50" with a La Nina/+NAO? +NAO's are wetter for you than warmer, but that really only makes a +snow difference right in the middle of Winter, mid to late January. 

You may be able to luck into a snowy pattern if the subsurface Nina moderates, and we go Neutral, then maybe -EPO, but it's still kind of far out to see if that will happen.. A lot of the roll forwards are like +3 to +5F for you. 

[George001]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I would take the under on that. 

You would go with 50" with a La Nina/+NAO? +NAO's are wetter for you than warmer, but that really only makes a +snow difference right in the middle of Winter, mid to late January. 

You may be able to luck into a snowy pattern if the subsurface Nina moderates, and we go Neutral, then maybe -EPO, but it's still kind of far out to see if that will happen.. A lot of the roll forwards are like +3 to +5F for you. 

In SNE, if operating in the +1 to +2F range with +++AN precip, that could be a fairly snowy winter (depending on how you reach those +1 to +2 anomalies). +3 you are likely looking at below average snow, but there is a narrow path to AN snow (2021-2022 and 2012-2013 are good examples. 2016-2017 was slightly AN snow for BOS I believe despite the winter being a torch) +5 is nearly always a ratter.

[George001]

I strongly agree that the biggest concern is temps, the current data is suggesting we should lean AN for both temps and precip. I am curious about what the snowfall distribution across the east would look like with well AN precip but +2 instead of the +5 anomalies we’ve been getting lately. 

[snowman19]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is due to the WPAC warm pool taking on the primary role in our La Niña background pattern. So we can get a very strong La Niña atmospheric response with only weekly cool ONIs. In the old days before the WPAC was so warm, weak La Ninas were cold and snowy like in 95-96, 00-01, and 08-09. Our weaker La Nina’s since then have been much warmer like in 11-12, 16-17, and 22-23. 

Completely agree. In this current climate, weak La Niña no longer = cold and snowy. I have no doubt that even if the ONI stays weak, this La Niña is going to atmospherically behave MUCH stronger. I know Ray agrees too

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If we don't pick it up at the surface, I wonder if a warm pool will start to develop in the western subsurface region, below Nino 4, and the general subsurface "Moderate Nina" will start to moderate in the Fall.. Next years ENSO is pretty big for the direction we will be heading multi-year, and if we start to see the subsurface moderate in the Fall/Winter it would favor more +ENSO conditions next year. 

I got to think the cold pocket eventually has to bubble up to the surface. Like in 2007-08. I'm almost certain 2024-25 and 2025-26 are going to be la nina seasons, with at least one being a strong la nina. After that, it's too early to tell what will come next. All options are open for 2026-27 (3rd year la nina, ENSO neutral, el nino).

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is due to the WPAC warm pool taking on the primary role in our La Niña background pattern. So we can get a very strong La Niña atmospheric response with only weekly cool ONIs. In the old days before the WPAC was so warm, weak La Ninas were cold and snowy like in 95-96, 00-01, and 08-09. Our weaker La Nina’s since then have been much warmer like in 11-12, 16-17, and 22-23. 

I wonder if this will render ENSO neutral more favorable than previously, as it assumre more of a weak ENSO flavor...

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder is this will render ENSO neutral more favorable than previously, as it assumre more of a weak ENSO flavor...

I suspect RONI or RONI-like offsets, in general, will force some of this anyway

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder is this will render ENSO neutral more favorable than previously, as it assumre more of a weak ENSO flavor...

The only ENSO neutral we have had since the 15-16 super El Niño was 19-20. That season got overpowered by the IOD with the strong IO forcing in the fall leading to the very strong SPV in the winter. It also allowed the WPAC warm pool to lead to the record MJO 4-6. So the weaker ENSO input permitted  other factors to dominate.

 

2016	2.5	2.1	1.6	0.9	0.4	-0.1	-0.4	-0.5	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6
2017	-0.3	-0.2	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	-0.1	-0.4	-0.7	-0.8	-1.0
2018	-0.9	-0.9	-0.7	-0.5	-0.2	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.9	0.8
2019	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.5
Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
2020	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-0.4	-0.6	-0.9	-1.2	-1.3	-1.2
2021	-1.0	-0.9	-0.8	-0.7	-0.5	-0.4	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	-0.8	-1.0	-1.0
2022	-1.0	-0.9	-1.0	-1.1	-1.0	-0.9	-0.8	-0.9	-1.0	-1.0	-0.9	-0.8
2023	-0.7	-0.4	-0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	1.1	1.3	1.6	1.8	1.9	2.0
2024	1.8	1.5	1.1	0.7	0.4

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only ENSO neutral we have had since the 15-16 super El Niño was 19-20. That season got overpowered by the IOD with the strong IO forcing in the fall leading to the very strong SPV in the winter. It also allowed the WPAC warm pool to lead to the record MJO 4-6. So the weaker ENSO input permitted  other factors to dominate.

 

2016	2.5	2.1	1.6	0.9	0.4	-0.1	-0.4	-0.5	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6
2017	-0.3	-0.2	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	-0.1	-0.4	-0.7	-0.8	-1.0
2018	-0.9	-0.9	-0.7	-0.5	-0.2	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.9	0.8
2019	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.5
Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
2020	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-0.4	-0.6	-0.9	-1.2	-1.3	-1.2
2021	-1.0	-0.9	-0.8	-0.7	-0.5	-0.4	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	-0.8	-1.0	-1.0
2022	-1.0	-0.9	-1.0	-1.1	-1.0	-0.9	-0.8	-0.9	-1.0	-1.0	-0.9	-0.8
2023	-0.7	-0.4	-0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	1.1	1.3	1.6	1.8	1.9	2.0
2024	1.8	1.5	1.1	0.7	0.4

And it really wasn't a true ENSO neutral season. One could argue it was a weak el nino, since we were at 0.5 for more than 3 trimonthlies. 2018-20 was more of a disjointed el nino like 1952-54. (Oddly enough, both were followed by a triple la nina [1954-57 and 2020-23] then a strong el nino [1957-58 and 2023-24].) FWIW, 1958-59 was a weak el nino, but I don't think we're getting that in 2024-25.

The last true ENSO neutral season was 2013-14, which was a blockbuster winter. However, ENSO neutrals are hit or miss. For every cold/snowy winter (2003-04 and 2013-14), there's a warm winter (2001-02 and 2012-13) that balances it out.

That said, the chances of an ENSO neutral season the next 2 years are very low. The subsurface is screaming la nina in 2024-25 and 2025-26. Maybe we'll get an ENSO neutral season in 2026-27.

Moderate el ninos (76-77, 77-78, and 02-03, for example) seem to be more favorable for snow than ENSO neutrals. We haven't had one since 02-03, which is now over 20 years ago, so we're overdue.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only ENSO neutral we have had since the 15-16 super El Niño was 19-20. That season got overpowered by the IOD with the strong IO forcing in the fall leading to the very strong SPV in the winter. It also allowed the WPAC warm pool to lead to the record MJO 4-6. So the weaker ENSO input permitted  other factors to dominate.

 

2016	2.5	2.1	1.6	0.9	0.4	-0.1	-0.4	-0.5	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6
2017	-0.3	-0.2	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	-0.1	-0.4	-0.7	-0.8	-1.0
2018	-0.9	-0.9	-0.7	-0.5	-0.2	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.9	0.8
2019	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.5
Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
2020	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-0.4	-0.6	-0.9	-1.2	-1.3	-1.2
2021	-1.0	-0.9	-0.8	-0.7	-0.5	-0.4	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	-0.8	-1.0	-1.0
2022	-1.0	-0.9	-1.0	-1.1	-1.0	-0.9	-0.8	-0.9	-1.0	-1.0	-0.9	-0.8
2023	-0.7	-0.4	-0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	1.1	1.3	1.6	1.8	1.9	2.0
2024	1.8	1.5	1.1	0.7	0.4

Yea, the thing with neutral ENSO is that other factors have more proxy, so an overwhelming signal like that would be lights out. 

[brooklynwx99]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Completely agree. In this current climate, weak La Niña no longer = cold and snowy. I have no doubt that even if the ONI stays weak, this La Niña is going to atmospherically behave MUCH stronger. I know Ray agrees too

i don't think it's quite as air tight as this... I agree that it will be more difficult to see cold and snowy winters with -ENSO given the propensity for forcing to plant itself in the MC, though there is always variability

2020-21 was a central based moderate Nina with a RONI slightly more negative than ONI (OND RONI was -1.56 compared to ONI of -1.3). one would think that the year would be a catastrophe, especially given the -PDO, but it was a big time year. the WPAC warm pool was also in place by then

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don't think it's quite as air tight as this... I agree that it will be more difficult to see cold and snowy winters with -ENSO given the propensity for forcing to plant itself in the MC, though there is always variability

2020-21 was a central based moderate Nina with a RONI slightly more negative than ONI (OND RONI was -1.56 compared to ONI of -1.3). one would think that the year would be a catastrophe, especially given the -PDO, but it was a big time year. the WPAC warm pool was also in place by then

 

That is an example of Chris' big 4-6 MJO spike in October that lead to the lower frequency during the winter, which allows for more variance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I did well that winter....correctly called those - NAO periods.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is an example of Chris' big 4-6 MJO spike in October that lead to the lower frequency during the winter, which allows for more variance.

The interesting thing is that the fall to winter MJO relationship only seems to apply with La Niña winters since 10-11.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

The interesting thing is that the fall to winter MJO relationship only seems to apply with La Niña winter since 10-11.

Yea, I think its due that MC forcing groiwng more prevalent since then....not that variance is ever more crucial.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The upside is still there and probably greater than ever before, but it just takes a more specific and unique set of cricumstances to elicit said potential.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The upside is still there and probably greater than ever before, but it just takes a more specific and unique set of cricumstances to elicit said potential.

yeah, there will be a winter at some point that's just a parade of juiced cutoff lows exiting the OH Valley, just a matter of when. in the meantime, a lot of BS will have to be endured. I think that's pretty safe to say. we've seen the West get periods of continuous anomalous troughs over the last few years

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, there will be a winter at some point that's just a parade of juiced cutoff lows exiting the OH Valley, just a matter of when. in the meantime, a lot of BS will have to be endured. I think that's pretty safe to say. we've seen the West get periods of continuous anomalous troughs over the last few years

Yea, @ORH_wxmanhas been saying that.

Personally, I will take this.....foster a greter proclivity towards delayed meteorological gratification to be satiated by a big pay day every so often. Makes the hobby more enjoyable IMHO.

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don't think it's quite as air tight as this... I agree that it will be more difficult to see cold and snowy winters with -ENSO given the propensity for forcing to plant itself in the MC, though there is always variability

2020-21 was a central based moderate Nina with a RONI slightly more negative than ONI (OND RONI was -1.56 compared to ONI of -1.3). one would think that the year would be a catastrophe, especially given the -PDO, but it was a big time year. the WPAC warm pool was also in place by then

 

That winter had only a moderate -PDO, the weakest -PDO since 2019-20. Also, it was during a quiet solar flux/sunspot period. In addition, it was easily the most -NAO winter since 2010-1.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

That winter had only a moderate -PDO, the weakest -PDO since 2019-20. Also, it was during a quiet solar flux/sunspot period. In addition, it was easily the most -NAO winter since 2010-1.

I agree that those things are true. my point was that there are other variables that impact winters. saying that weak Ninas just aren't cold and snowy in this climate is a bit reductive

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

That winter had only a moderate -PDO, the weakest -PDO since 2019-20. Also, it was during a quiet solar flux/sunspot period. In addition, it was easily the most -NAO winter since 2010-1.

More than one way to skin a weenie.... if we get that MJO amplitude in October, then we can probably get some nice polward Aleutian ridging episodes and pv elongation.

[snowman19]

51 minutes ago, GaWx said:

That winter had only a moderate -PDO, the weakest -PDO since 2019-20. Also, it was during a quiet solar flux/sunspot period. In addition, it was easily the most -NAO winter since 2010-1.

You beat me to it lol yea, that winter had the weaker -PDO and low solar, it also did not have the inferno New Foundland warm pool to go along with the +AMO. I believe it may have been -QBO too?, don’t have the time to look it up right now though

[PhiEaglesfan712]

47 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don't think it's quite as air tight as this... I agree that it will be more difficult to see cold and snowy winters with -ENSO given the propensity for forcing to plant itself in the MC, though there is always variability

2020-21 was a central based moderate Nina with a RONI slightly more negative than ONI (OND RONI was -1.56 compared to ONI of -1.3). one would think that the year would be a catastrophe, especially given the -PDO, but it was a big time year. the WPAC warm pool was also in place by then

 

2020-21 was more a one-month winter (February), and even then it was hit or miss. If you really think about it, it was a reversal of 2017-18 (which had that outlier warm February). Those north and west of Philly really got hammered, but it was a non-existent winter south and east, especially in places like ACY. In fact, ACY got hammered worse in 2021-22 (another one-month winter, January) than in 2020-21.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My area got screwed in 2020-2021, as I missed out on some of the heavier snows just south of me..kind of caught in between, which is why I have now endured six consecutive below average snowfall seasons. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I would take the under on that. 

You would go with 50" with a La Nina/+NAO? +NAO's are wetter for you than warmer, but that really only makes a +snow difference right in the middle of Winter, mid to late January. 

You may be able to luck into a snowy pattern if the subsurface Nina moderates, and we go Neutral, then maybe -EPO, but it's still kind of far out to see if that will happen.. A lot of the roll forwards are like +3 to +5F for you. 

Why are you focusing on the upper portion of that range? Hell, I had 42" in 1998-1999....and that was whiffing on a blizzard that skirted the cape.

[snowman19]

You beat me to it lol yea, that winter had the weaker -PDO and low solar, it also did not have the inferno New Foundland warm pool to go along with the +AMO. I believe it may have been -QBO too?, don’t have the time to look it up right now though

I stand corrected, it was Nina/+QBO/low solar, so the 3rd most likely to produce a SSW and or blocking….Nino/-QBO/low solar being the most likely and Nina/+QBO/high solar being the least likely

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

Follow up, which explains the very strong La Niña atmospheric response we are seeing, which @bluewave has been discussing. @40/70 Benchmark RONI: