2024-2025 La Nina

[BuffaloWeather]

BUF:

• 1940s: 47.9F
• 1950s: 48.6F
• 1960s: 47.1F
• 1970s: 47.5F
• 1980s: 48.1F
• 1990s: 48.7F
• 2000s: 48.6F
• 2010s: 49.4F
• 2020s: 51.2F (so far)

[George001]

18 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The factors into the 17-18 winter were screaming that it was not going to be a dud….east-based La Niña, low solar and geomag, negative QBO, (favorable for SSWs), neutral PDO, no overpowering IOD, an MJO that wasn’t perpetually stuck in phases 4-6, non volcanic and it was before AGW, low arctic sea ice and the AMO went completely off the charts

AGW has absolutely progressed further since then, but 2017-2018 was NOT before AGW, not even close. That was the year we saw 80 in Feb. Also, wasnt the MJO being not stuck in phases 4-6 related to the east based Nina? I remember reading a while ago how Modoki Nina’s and East based ninos for reasons tend to support MJO development in the maritime regions. Isn’t that why the ENSO structure matters?

[snowman19]

19 minutes ago, George001 said:

AGW has absolutely progressed further since then, but 2017-2018 was NOT before AGW, not even close. That was the year we saw 80 in Feb. Also, wasnt the MJO being not stuck in phases 4-6 related to the east based Nina? I remember reading a while ago how Modoki Nina’s and East based ninos for reasons tend to support MJO development in the maritime regions. Isn’t that why the ENSO structure matters?

Did you bother to read my entire sentence? I’ll repeat it for you again. BEFORE THEY WENT COMPLETELY OFF THE CHARTS

[snowman19]

This is easily the most impressive high solar flux since 01-02. If the sunspot number goes over 300, this will be one of the strongest solar maxes on record

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The entire high ACE argument is based on it adding momentum, ridge pumping, as well as latent and sensible heat to the North Atlantic tropopause through recurves, possibly leading to -NAO. Here is my question, and you and I discussed this already….would the years that were high ACE/-NAO have been -NAO even without high ACE? In other words, would the ENSO/solar/geomag/QBO/(AMO in the case of ‘95), etc. have lead to the -NAO even if the ACE had been below normal? 

I don't think anyone can definiteively answer that....at least not the honest folks. In the absence of sufficient data, all we can so is observe relationships and make postulations that are tested as we go along.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

AGW has absolutely progressed further since then, but 2017-2018 was NOT before AGW, not even close. That was the year we saw 80 in Feb. Also, wasnt the MJO being not stuck in phases 4-6 related to the east based Nina? I remember reading a while ago how Modoki Nina’s and East based ninos for reasons tend to support MJO development in the maritime regions. Isn’t that why the ENSO structure matters?

2017-2018 had a lot going for it....I nailed that season and it was pretty clear why NOAA was going to be off during that fall.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/11/winter-2017-2018-year-of.html

Not the case here, which isn't to say that it can not, or definitively will not be good.....but odds are certianly more heavily skewed towards another dud than they were in 2017.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

That was the snowiest March on record for parts of Long Island. It was a great example of a snowy pattern before the SSW repeating after. But in recent years we didn’t have much snow before the SSWs so the period after greatly underperformed. In 17-18 we already had the record 950 mb benchmark blizzard in early January. So March picked up where the earlier portion the winter left off before the 80° warmth in February. 
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2018	31.9	0
2	1967	21.7	0
3	2015	19.7	0
4	2009	13.6	0
5	2005	13.3	0
-	1993	13.3	0
6	1984	13.0	0
7	1996	12.0	0
8	1969	11.0	0
9	1978	10.4	0
10	2001	10.3	0

 

Monthly Data for March 2018 for Suffolk County, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NESCONSET 1.4 SSW	CoCoRaHS	33.8
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	31.9
BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW	CoCoRaHS	30.5
FARMINGVILLE 0.5 W	CoCoRaHS	27.8
PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW	CoCoRaHS	25.0
LAKE GROVE 1.2 SSW	CoCoRaHS	25.0
COMMACK 0.8 SSW	CoCoRaHS	24.4
CENTERPORT	COOP	21.7
WADING RIVER 2.0 NW	CoCoRaHS	21.3
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	21.0
RONKONKOMA 1.4 WSW	CoCoRaHS	20.3

Yea, that is my snowiest March on record. I was very accurate with respect to my thoughts about that season, but I can honestly tell you that I feel like I have grown more as an amatuer forecaster these past couple of years, during which I have struggled greatly, than I did then.

[George001]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Did you bother to read my entire sentence? I’ll repeat it for you again. BEFORE THEY WENT COMPLETELY OFF THE CHARTS

Again, it hit 80 fucking degrees in Feb. AGW was already off the charts. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, George001 said:

Again, it hit 80 fucking degrees in Feb. AGW was already off the charts. 

I think both of you are just using the ambiguity of semantics to stand one another's ground out of spite and stubborness. While 2018 was after the apparent tipping point of 2015, the planet has undoubtedly continued to warm at a rapid pace since then.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2017-2018 had a lot going for it....I nailed that season and it was pretty clear why NOAA was going to be off during that fall.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/11/winter-2017-2018-year-of.html

Not the case here, which isn't to say that it can not, or definitively will not be good.....but odds are certianly more heavily skewed towards another dud than they were in 2017.

17-18 starting showing its hand right around this time. The clues were everywhere. It was almost as obvious as 02-03, which was a slam dunk for a cold/snowy winter months before it even started and the signs just continued to increase in the fall. HM nailed the historic blocking for 10-11 a month before it even started. 14-15 was another example when the ++PDO showed up and you knew it was going to lead to the strong PAC side blocking. Some just tip their hand very early on….

[PhiEaglesfan712]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

17-18 starting showing its hand right around this time. The clues were everywhere. It was almost as obvious as 02-03, which was a slam dunk for a cold/snowy winter months before it even started and the signs just continued to increase in the fall. HM nailed the historic blocking for 10-11 a month before it even started. 14-15 was another example when the ++PDO showed up and you knew it was going to lead to the strong PAC side blocking. Some just tip their hand very early on….

I disagree about 17-18. We were coming off a near record warm October. 21-22 almost felt the same as 17-18 (both followed an extremely warm October with a normal November). Warm Octobers don't normally produce blockbuster winters. Funny how 17-18 got ended up getting the one warm month (February) that skewed the winter, while 21-22 ended up getting the one cool (and snowy in some locations) month (January) that skewed the winter.

I felt that 18-19 had a better set up for cold and snow than 17-18. We even got a snowstorm in mid-November 2018.

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I disagree about 17-18. We were coming off a near record warm October. 21-22 almost felt the same as 17-18 (both followed an extremely warm October with a normal November). Warm Octobers don't normally produce blockbuster winters. Funny how 17-18 got ended up getting the one warm month (February) that skewed the winter, while 21-22 ended up getting the one cool (and snowy in some locations) month (January) that skewed the winter.

I felt that 18-19 had a better set up for cold and snow than 17-18. We even got a snowstorm in mid-November 2018.

17-18 had the -QBO, low solar/low geomag, neutral PDO, east-based Niña, no record WPAC warm pool locking the MJO in 4-6, no overpowering +AMO/New Foundland warm pool. Those alone were huge clues going into that winter

[snowman19]

This is ridiculous:

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The entire high ACE argument is based on it adding momentum, ridge pumping, as well as latent and sensible heat to the North Atlantic tropopause through recurves, possibly leading to -NAO. Here is my question, and you and I discussed this already….would the years that were high ACE/-NAO have been -NAO even without high ACE? In other words, would the ENSO/solar/geomag/QBO/(AMO in the case of ‘95), etc. have lead to the -NAO even if the ACE had been below normal? 

It’s a very interesting question. The highest ACE season was 1933, this was followed by the legendary February 1934. The 2005-2006 La Niña was warm and snowy. 1995-1996 speaks for itself. Recent years with very high ACE featured the 20-21 La Niña which had the amplified MJO 5 in October and was weaker in December allowing other factors to drive the pattern. Another winter into spring was 17-18 which we have already discussed at length. But the 98-99 and 99-00 La Niña winter weren’t so great even though we did get the surprise late January 2000 Southeast and north snowstorm which all the models missed with the retrograding block. It would be interesting to see some papers done on the topic to see which aspects of the hurricane season were related to the winter blocking periods and snowier outcomes. It could also be that both patterns were linked through another underlying process which hasn’t been identified beyond the wave breaking. 
 
Highest Atlantic ACE seasons

1933	258.57	20	11	6	Extremely active
2005	245.3	28	15	7	Extremely active
1893	231.1475	12	10	5	Extremely active
1926	229.5575	11	8	6	Extremely active
1995	227.1025	19	11	5	Extremely active
2004	226.88	15	9	6	Extremely active
2017	224.8775	17	10	6	Extremely active
1950	211.2825	16	11	6	Extremely active
1961	188.9	12	8	5	Extremely active
1998	181.7675	14	10	3	Extremely active
1887	181.26	19	11	2	Extremely active
1878	180.85	12	10	2	Extremely active
2020	180.3725	30	14	7	Extremely active
2003	176.84	16	7	3	Extremely active
1999	176.5275	12	8	5	Extremely active

[snowman19]

Another crazy stat and it’s not even at the climatological lowest point of the year. My guess is this is related to the marine heat waves:
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s a very interesting question. The highest ACE season was 1933, this was followed by the legendary February 1934. The 2005-2006 La Niña was warm and snowy. 1995-1996 speaks for itself. Recent years with very high ACE featured the 20-21 La Niña which had the amplified MJO 5 in October and was weaker in December allowing other factors to drive the pattern. Another winter into spring was 17-18 which we have already discussed at length. But the 98-99 and 99-00 La Niña winter weren’t so great even though we did get the surprise late January 2000 Southeast and north snowstorm which all the models missed with the retrograding block. It would be interesting to see some papers done on the topic to see which aspects of the hurricane season were related to the winter blocking periods and snowier outcomes. It could also be that both patterns were linked through another underlying process which hasn’t been identified beyond the wave breaking. 
 
Highest Atlantic ACE seasons

1933	258.57	20	11	6	Extremely active
2005	245.3	28	15	7	Extremely active
1893	231.1475	12	10	5	Extremely active
1926	229.5575	11	8	6	Extremely active
1995	227.1025	19	11	5	Extremely active
2004	226.88	15	9	6	Extremely active
2017	224.8775	17	10	6	Extremely active
1950	211.2825	16	11	6	Extremely active
1961	188.9	12	8	5	Extremely active
1998	181.7675	14	10	3	Extremely active
1887	181.26	19	11	2	Extremely active
1878	180.85	12	10	2	Extremely active
2020	180.3725	30	14	7	Extremely active
2003	176.84	16	7	3	Extremely active
1999	176.5275	12	8	5	Extremely active

Chris, from which site do you get most of your articles?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I disagree about 17-18. We were coming off a near record warm October. 21-22 almost felt the same as 17-18 (both followed an extremely warm October with a normal November). Warm Octobers don't normally produce blockbuster winters. Funny how 17-18 got ended up getting the one warm month (February) that skewed the winter, while 21-22 ended up getting the one cool (and snowy in some locations) month (January) that skewed the winter.

I felt that 18-19 had a better set up for cold and snow than 17-18. We even got a snowstorm in mid-November 2018.

That sounds like anecdotal hogwash.

2017-2018 looked much more favorable pre-season for NE winter ethusiasts due to a myriad of reasonal already stated.

I will say that I also thought 2018-2019 was going to be a big winter, however, I probably wouldn't knowing what I know now about the state of the extra tropical Pacific and how it relates to ENSO. We saw an even more amplified version of this this past season.

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Chris, from which site do you get most of your articles?

I found the ACE on Wikipedia and clicked the top of the column to sort by ranking from highest to lowest.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I found the ACE on Wikipedia and clicked the top of the column to sort by ranking from highest to lowest.

 I know that...I mean generally speaking....you always seem to have a rolodex of peer reviewed articles at your disposal to produce at a moment's notice.

[George001]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think both of you are just using the ambiguity of semantics to stand one another's ground out of spite and stubborness. While 2018 was after the apparent tipping point of 2015, the planet has undoubtedly continued to warm at a rapid pace since then.

I’m gonna be honest, I misread his initial post, he didn’t actually say anything I disagree with. I was outside in the extreme heat all day yesterday and my brain is kind of fried. Before anyone asks, yes im blaming AGW for this entire argument taking place. 

[snowman19]

That sounds like anecdotal hogwash.
2017-2018 looked much more favorable pre-season for NE winter ethusiasts due to a myriad of reasonal already stated.
I will say that I also thought 2018-2019 was going to be a big winter, however, I probably wouldn't knowing what I know now about the state of the extra tropical Pacific and how it relates to ENSO. We saw an even more amplified version of this this past season.

Your 17-18 winter forecast was one of the best I’ve ever seen. One thing is for sure, besides all the other factors we’ve mentioned, this La Niña is definitely not developing as an east-based event this time around like 2017 did. This current configuration is not even close to resembling an east-based event:

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 I know that...I mean generally speaking....you always seem to have a rolodex of peer reviewed articles at your disposal to produce at a moment's notice.

It usually starts by finding statistical changes to our weather patterns and then doing google and twitter searches for papers. Once a pattern becomes persistent enough papers usually start appearing. I like papers that are based on actual changes we have observed more than papers based on model forecasts. For a long time global climate models have been forecasting that the EPAC would warm faster than the WPAC and El Niños would become the more prevalent background state. But the opposite has been occurring since 1980 with the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool. So this tells me modeling still has a long way to go in describing fundamental changes to our weather patterns beyond the basic more CO2 equals warmer general temperatures. 

[michsnowfreak]

18 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Not as much as you might like to think. The normals were corrected for location and site exposure and not just averages of records from various locations.

From what I could glean from the Local Climatological Data publications, the normals for each site were as follows:

Detroit Metropolitan Wayne Airport

1931-1960 [1967 revision, after it became the official climate site in 1966]

1961-1990

 

So yeah, it was quite a bit colder during the winter, but there were seasonal variations. Spring was warmer in the 1961-1990 normals, and summer pretty similar. Fall was fairly similar but with some interesting ups [November] and downs [October].

I was specifically referring to winter. Keep in mind, any changes in climate over the course of decades will not be even. Winters of the 1930s-50s were easily our most tame on record here. Winters of the 1930s & 50s were warmer than the 2000s or 2010s. But moreso then temps you have the trend of meager snowfall during that timeframe. Add those two factors together, easily a period of winters one would like to forget. Summers were also hot during this timeframe, in fact the # of hot days the 1930s-50s saw werent even touched at Detroit til the 2010s, and we have already regressed a bit in the 2020s (tho only half over). Summer afternoons overall were hotter back then, but nights were cooler. Autumns were similar, springs much cooler.

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, George001 said:

Again, it hit 80 fucking degrees in Feb. AGW was already off the charts. 

The AGW talk in the 1990s was out of control. You can talk about the finer details and such, but any suggestion that its new is insane. It hit the mid-70s in parts of new england and parts of the Great Lakes in January 1950....cant blame any one event on AGW either.

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is ridiculous:
 

In that tweet Leon Simons said:

“Tomorrow will be the 500th day in a row of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures running above pre-2023 records. A year ago, many said this was just natural variability. They should come out and eat their shorts.”

 When considering the combination of El Niño and Hunga Tonga (both in the “natural” category), I think it might have been wise to not act so cocky and not act so high and mighty. Is he implying that he knows for sure that AGW/sulfate reduction alone, lead to this sudden jump? If so, how is it possible to be 100% sure?
 

 AGW has caused a much more gradual warming. Also, the reduction in sulfates has caused warming in recent years though nothing big suddenly happened just before 2023. Why would AGW/sulfate reduction suddenly cause this big jump and how could he be so sure that Hunga Tonga, which shot an enormous amount of greenhouse effect water vapor way up into the stratosphere, wasn’t a significant contributor in addition to El Niño? Also, it supposedly will take the rest of this decade before the bulk of that added water falls back to earth. The ongoing effects of Hunga Tonga are still being analyzed! I’m not saying HT has been a significant contributor and I’m not saying the opposite. It is unknown. His cockiness implying everything is already figured out is what bothers me here

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Your 17-18 winter forecast was one of the best I’ve ever seen. One thing is for sure, besides all the other factors we’ve mentioned, this La Niña is definitely not developing as an east-based event this time around like 2017 did. This current configuration is not even close to resembling an east-based event:

 

 

 

 

What I have come to realize is that you don't know a damn thing until you realize how little you actually know. I thought I had it all figured out back in 2018, then the PAC warm pool, @raindancewx and @bluewavestarted kicking my ass. I was far too focused on ENSO in the past, so eventually what happened is that I lost sight of the proverbial forest through the tress, so to speak. ENSO needs to be examined through a wholistic lens within the context of how it interacts with the surrounding hemisphere. You can have identical ENSO events in terms of structure and intensity, but if the surrounding hemispheric landscape is different, then you could have drastically different results in terms of the seasonal pattern. This is why examining sensible weather and not just teleconnections is so important, which is what raindaince does so well.

Nothing, including ENSO is an independent variable operating in a vacuum and this is becoming ever clearer as our climate continues to change.

[George001]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The AGW talk in the 1990s was out of control. You can talk about the finer details and such, but any suggestion that it’s new is insane. It hit the mid-70s in parts of new england and parts of the Great Lakes in January 1950....cant blame any one event on AGW either.

The thing is it’s been happening more often. It seems like every other year it hits 70 in Feb or Mar, I don’t remember that being normal even 10 years ago.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

In that tweet Leon Simons said:

“Tomorrow will be the 500th day in a row of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures running above pre-2023 records. A year ago, many said this was just natural variability. They should come out and eat their shorts.”

 When considering the combination of El Niño and Hunga Tonga (both in the “natural” category), I think it might have been wise to not act so cocky and not act so high and mighty. Is he implying that he knows for sure that AGW/sulfate reduction alone, lead to this sudden jump? If so, how is it possible to be 100% sure?
 

 AGW has caused a much more gradual warming. Also, the reduction in sulfates has caused warming in recent years though nothing big suddenly happened just before 2023. Why would AGW/sulfate reduction suddenly cause this big jump and how could he be so sure that Hunga Tonga, which shot an enormous amount of greenhouse effect water vapor way up into the stratosphere, wasn’t a significant contributor in addition to El Niño? Also, it supposedly will take the rest of this decade before the bulk of that added water falls back to earth. The ongoing effects of Hunga Tonga are still being analyzed! I’m not saying HT has been a significant contributor and I’m not saying the opposite. It is unknown. His cockiness implying everything is already figured out is what bothers me here

Great point about gradual warming. An unusual warm temp at any time of the year is always media fodder for a CC post regardless of what caused said warm temp. There are so many patterns and natural variables in the climate. It's why the average annual temp rise is slow. You will still get plenty of cold days and such, it's just they are being outnumbered by warm.

[michsnowfreak]

13 minutes ago, George001 said:

The thing is it’s been happening more often. It seems like every other year it hits 70 in Feb or Mar, I don’t remember that being normal even 10 years ago.

"I don't remember" is a dangerous word to use in weather haha . Looking up the actual data can really surprise you. Not an encyclopedia of weather knowledge for Boston as I am for Detroit...and I do know east coast winters have warmed a bit more than here (I've found that fall/winter warming is much slower than spring/summer here)....but when you actually look at data you might be surprised. Using just our memories is how the tales "when I was a kid" start. Since the beginning of climate record there have been eye popping warm months, out-of-season warm temps at any time of year, and multi-year cycles of unusually warm weather. They just happened less frequently back then (how much less depends on location). 

[George001]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Your 17-18 winter forecast was one of the best I’ve ever seen. One thing is for sure, besides all the other factors we’ve mentioned, this La Niña is definitely not developing as an east-based event this time around like 2017 did. This current configuration is not even close to resembling an east-based event:

 

 

 

 

Current anomalies:

Nino 4: +0.7

Nino 3.4: +0.3

Nino 3: -0.1

nino 1.2: -0.2.

Looking at the subsurface, there is a lot of cold near the surface in the ENSO 3 region. The developing subsurface cold pool is centralized in the ENSO 3.4 region. Am I missing something here? The subsurface + surface configuration appears at first glance to support future cooling in the ENSO 3.4, 3 and 1.2 regions with less cooling in the ENSO 4 region. That said, I do agree that when it actually maters (in the winter), the Nina will be less east based that 2017-2018 was. Regardless, it appears that the debate is between an east based and a basin wide event, there isn’t any signs of this turning into a modoki anytime soon.