SnoSki14 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Yep, any chance of a hyperactive season is pretty much over. 7 days takes us to July 22, and despite Beryl, we've still only had 3 systems. We're not only well behind the pace of 2020 and 2021, we're even behind last year's pace as well. This is looking more like a 2007-type season than a hyperactive one. The atmosphere is strongly Nina coupled though so it won't be long before things get wild. Wind shear is very low throughout and ssts remains near record highs. Once SAL diminishes and MJO becomes more favorable it'll be off to the races 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its not the max you should be the most leery of, rather the 1-3 year stretch, thereafter....that is when the solar wind kicks up the geomagnetic energy, which bolsters the PV. Again, not to say we aren't more likely than not to have a strong PV anyway, but that post solar max even moreso. I always think back to 01/02 when the sun had an unexpected rise in activity. My grass was greener than the average summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I always think back to 01/02 when the sun had an unexpected rise in activity. My grass was greener than the average summer! I'm not saying solar max is great...all things equal, we want INVO solar min, but there is more to it than that....look at 1970 and 2000....great analogs near solar max (not calling for a repeat). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 14 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: How many winters have been below normal temps wise at Boston since 2000? Dec-Feb 14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not sure, maybe 2000-2001, 2002-2003 and 2014-2015? Only other possibility is maybe 2013-2014... Since 2000, these are the winters that finished below average temperatures, using whatever normals applied at the time (1971-00, 1981-10, 1991-20) for BOS, DTW, BUF BOSTON 2000-01 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2008-09 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15(using the current 1991-20 normals you can add 2009-10, 2017-18, 2020-21) DETROIT 2000-01 2002-03 2008-09 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15 2017-18 2021-22(using the current 1991-20 normals you can add 2003-04, 2004-05, 2007-08) BUFFALO 2000-01 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15 2017-18(no additional winters when using the current 1991-20 normals) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not saying solar max is great...all things equal, we want INVO solar min, but there is more to it than that....look at 1970 and 2000....great analogs near solar max (not calling for a repeat). The last estimated peak I saw back in May for this solar max was the tail end of this year/early next year. Based on what we are seeing right now, that appears to be a good estimate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 27 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Since 2000, these are the winters that finished below average temperatures, using whatever normals applied at the time (1971-00, 1981-10, 1991-20) for BOS, DTW, BUF BOSTON 2000-01 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2008-09 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15 2017-18(using the current 1991-20 normals you can add 2009-10, 2020-21) DETROIT 2000-01 2002-03 2008-09 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15 2017-18 2021-22(using the current 1991-20 normals you can add 2003-04, 2004-05, 2007-08) BUFFALO 2000-01 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15 2017-18(no additional winters when using the current 1991-20 normals) 2004-2005 was below average temps in Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2004-2005 was below average temps in Boston? The DJF temp in 2004-05 at BOS was 30.9F. The 1971-00 normals were 31.8F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2004-2005 was below average temps in Boston? Jaded weenie memory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Since 2000, these are the winters that finished below average temperatures, using whatever normals applied at the time (1971-00, 1981-10, 1991-20) for BOS, DTW, BUF BOSTON 2000-01 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2008-09 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15 2017-18(using the current 1991-20 normals you can add 2009-10, 2020-21) DETROIT 2000-01 2002-03 2008-09 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15 2017-18 2021-22(using the current 1991-20 normals you can add 2003-04, 2004-05, 2007-08) BUFFALO 2000-01 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15 2017-18(no additional winters when using the current 1991-20 normals) DJF 2017-2018 finished +0.7 in Boston at 32.5° vs the 1981-2010 mean of 31.8°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Jaded weenie memory? No, 2004-2005 was one of my favorite seasons...I had over 100", but I recalled it as near to slightly above normal, albeit very snowy in SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: DJF 2017-2018 finished +0.7 in Boston at 32.5° vs the 1981-2010 mean of 31.8°. I must have accidentally looked at 1991-20 normals. But also, I came up with 32.2F at boston for 2017-18. I always do the average by days, not calendar months, since Feb having less days will give it a bias depending on if Feb was cold or mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, 2004-2005 was one of my favorite seasons...I had over 100", but I recalled it as near to slightly above normal, albeit very snowy in SNE. Similar here. Very snowy winter, temps not too far off avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: I must have accidentally looked at 1991-20 normals. But also, I came up with 32.2F at boston for 2017-18. I always do the average by days, not calendar months, since Feb having less days will give it a bias depending on if Feb was cold or mild. The winter was actually cold going into February. But the record warmth in February shifted the whole winter average warm. It was the first time we had 80° warmth during the winter around the NYC area. Boston Dec 17….30.7…..avg….34.7…..-4.0 Jan 18….28.6…..avg….29.0…..-0.4 Feb 18….38.1……avg…..31.7…..+6.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 5 hours ago, snowman19 said: Sunspots are coming out even higher than expected, now over 230, this solar max has been unprecedented, continuing to overperform: Also, appears there’s even more to come. We won’t know when the peak occurs until months after it happens, however, it’s pretty obvious that we definitely haven’t reached the peak yet as the solar flux continues to increase: The current cycle (25) had initially been expected to max out ~July of 2025 at a max of only 115. However it has been much more active than expected. Thus, the predicted max date has been revised to be earlier. The earlier max goes hand in hand with the higher amplitude, since stronger cycles typically rise faster and peak sooner than weaker cycles. As the figure below shows the sunspot max is now predicted to be within the period July 2024 through Jan 2025, whose midpoint of Oct 2024 is 9 months earlier than the July 2025 initial max prediction. The F10.7cm radio flux max is now predicted to occur within the interval Jul-Nov 2024: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: The winter was actually cold going into February. But the record warmth in February shifted the whole winter average warm. It was the first time we had 80° warmth during the winter around the NYC area. Boston Dec 17….30.7…..avg….34.7…..-4.0 Jan 18….28.6…..avg….29.0…..-0.4 Feb 18….38.1……avg…..31.7…..+6.4 The factors into the 17-18 winter were screaming that it was not going to be a dud….east-based La Niña, low solar and geomag, negative QBO, (favorable for SSWs), neutral PDO, no overpowering IOD, an MJO that wasn’t perpetually stuck in phases 4-6, non volcanic and it was before AGW, low arctic sea ice and the AMO went completely off the charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: The current cycle (25) had initially been expected to max out ~July of 2025 at a max of only 115. However it has been much more active than expected. Thus, the predicted max date has been revised to be earlier. The earlier max goes hand in hand with the higher amplitude, since stronger cycles typically rise faster and peak sooner than weaker cycles. As the figure below shows the sunspot max is now predicted to be within the period July 2024 through Jan 2025, whose midpoint of Oct 2024 is 9 months earlier than the July 2025 initial max prediction. The F10.7cm radio flux max is now predicted to occur within the interval Jul-Nov 2024: So essentially solar max winter. What is the link to those graphics? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So essentially solar max winter. What is the link to those graphics? Yeah, just 3-4 months after most recent sunspot max midpoint prog of Oct 2024/solar flux midpoint prog of Sep 2024. I think this experimental product is updated ~monthly: https://testbed.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression-updated-prediction-experimental The current cycle started Dec 2019. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The factors into the 17-18 winter were screaming that it was not going to be a dud….east-based La Niña, low solar and geomag, negative QBO, (favorable for SSWs), neutral PDO, no overpowering IOD, an MJO that wasn’t perpetually stuck in phases 4-6, non volcanic and it was before AGW, low arctic sea ice and the AMO went completely off the charts The first clue was the near record MJO 5 for a La Niña October. It was able to weaken in December and allow the colder MJO 8-3 from after Christmas into early January. This was one of the best December 26th to January 8 periods for snow and cold on Long Island in the last 50 years. Then the record MJO 4-7 which began in mid to late January peaking in February completely reversed the pattern. There were also several papers which linked the amplitude of the MJO in those phases to SSW and historic March snowfall on Long Island. One of the wildest winters for extremes we have ever experienced lasting into March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 The extremely warm February really skewed the winter of 17-18. The months surrounding it (December, January, March, and April) were all well below average temperaturewise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Here is what I have been working on for a sea surface temperature anomaly + (ssta based) index plot. It's possible some of the values are not correct yet and if you think so, let me know. But the idea will be that this is hosted and updates daily within a moth. I'll also do the atmospheric indices like I said. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Yep, any chance of a hyperactive season is pretty much over. 7 days takes us to July 22, and despite Beryl, we've still only had 3 systems. We're not only well behind the pace of 2020 and 2021, we're even behind last year's pace as well. This is looking more like a 2007-type season than a hyperactive one. If your definition of hyperactive is # of NS, you may have a point although having 3 through July 22nd is actually above avg vs the mean. So, 2024 may very well not reach a near record # of storms like 2005/20. However, in terms of ACE so far, it is a far different story due to Beryl. In 2020, despite having 7 NS by ~7/22, the first hurricane wasn’t til after July 23. More later when I get time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 4 hours ago, GaWx said: If your definition of hyperactive is # of NS, you may have a point although having 3 through July 22nd is actually above avg vs the mean. So, 2024 may very well not reach a near record # of storms like 2005/20. However, in terms of ACE so far, it is a far different story due to Beryl. In 2020, despite having 7 NS by ~7/22, the first hurricane wasn’t til after July 23. More later when I get time. The entire high ACE argument is based on it adding momentum, ridge pumping, as well as latent and sensible heat to the North Atlantic tropopause through recurves, possibly leading to -NAO. Here is my question, and you and I discussed this already….would the years that were high ACE/-NAO have been -NAO even without high ACE? In other words, would the ENSO/solar/geomag/QBO/(AMO in the case of ‘95), etc. have lead to the -NAO even if the ACE had been below normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 5 hours ago, bluewave said: The winter was actually cold going into February. But the record warmth in February shifted the whole winter average warm. It was the first time we had 80° warmth during the winter around the NYC area. Boston Dec 17….30.7…..avg….34.7…..-4.0 Jan 18….28.6…..avg….29.0…..-0.4 Feb 18….38.1……avg…..31.7…..+6.4 I actually referenced this winter earlier in this thread. 2017-18 here was an excellent winter snow-wise, snowcover wise, and also saw the longest sub-20F stretch on record for Detroit. Every month from Nov 2017 thru Apr 2018 was colder than avg except Feb. And even, Feb was memorable for its frequent and deep snow, and was running below avg temp wise through the 18th…then a monster warm spell happened the last 9 days of the month. The 9 days, which averaged around +14F above avg, completely erased Febs temp departure and made it a +3F month, which made the winter as a whole finish only around a degree below avg, whereas winter thru Feb 13th was running a solid 3.5F colder than avg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 30 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I actually referenced this winter earlier in this thread. 2017-18 here was an excellent winter snow-wise, snowcover wise, and also saw the longest sub-20F stretch on record for Detroit. Every month from Nov 2017 thru Apr 2018 was colder than avg except Feb. And even, Feb was memorable for its frequent and deep snow, and was running below avg temp wise through the 18th…then a monster warm spell happened the last 9 days of the month. The 9 days, which averaged around +14F above avg, completely erased Febs temp departure and made it a +3F month, which made the winter as a whole finish only around a degree below avg, whereas winter thru Feb 13th was running a solid 3.5F colder than avg That was the snowiest March on record for parts of Long Island. It was a great example of a snowy pattern before the SSW repeating after. But in recent years we didn’t have much snow before the SSWs so the period after greatly underperformed. In 17-18 we already had the record 950 mb benchmark blizzard in early January. So March picked up where the earlier portion the winter left off before the 80° warmth in February. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of MarClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2018 31.9 0 2 1967 21.7 0 3 2015 19.7 0 4 2009 13.6 0 5 2005 13.3 0 - 1993 13.3 0 6 1984 13.0 0 7 1996 12.0 0 8 1969 11.0 0 9 1978 10.4 0 10 2001 10.3 0 Monthly Data for March 2018 for Suffolk County, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 33.8 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 31.9 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 30.5 FARMINGVILLE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 27.8 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 25.0 LAKE GROVE 1.2 SSW CoCoRaHS 25.0 COMMACK 0.8 SSW CoCoRaHS 24.4 CENTERPORT COOP 21.7 WADING RIVER 2.0 NW CoCoRaHS 21.3 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 21.0 RONKONKOMA 1.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 20.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Since 2000, these are the winters that finished below average temperatures, using whatever normals applied at the time (1971-00, 1981-10, 1991-20) for BOS, DTW, BUF BOSTON 2000-01 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2008-09 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15(using the current 1991-20 normals you can add 2009-10, 2017-18, 2020-21) DETROIT 2000-01 2002-03 2008-09 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15 2017-18 2021-22(using the current 1991-20 normals you can add 2003-04, 2004-05, 2007-08) BUFFALO 2000-01 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15 2017-18(no additional winters when using the current 1991-20 normals) And how many of these winters would be cooler than the 1961-90 normals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: And how many of these winters would be cooler than the 1961-90 normals? For NYC there were 9 winters with cold departures relative to the 1961-90 normals since then. Official NCDC departures for NYC DJF relative to 1961-1990 climate normals 14-15….-2.6 13-14…..-1.1 10-11……-1.2 09-10….-0.2 03-04….-1.6 02-03…..-2.8 00-01…..-0.5 95-96….-1.8 93-94…..-2.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: And how many of these winters would be cooler than the 1961-90 normals? I did not run the numbers against the coldest 30-year normals, aka 1961-90. If I have time I'll run them for Detroit against the cold 1961-90 normals and the mild 1931-60 normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 3 hours ago, bluewave said: That was the snowiest March on record for parts of Long Island. It was a great example of a snowy pattern before the SSW repeating after. But in recent years we didn’t have much snow before the SSWs so the period after greatly underperformed. In 17-18 we already had the record 950 mb benchmark blizzard in early January. So March picked up where the earlier portion the winter left off before the 80° warmth in February. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of MarClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2018 31.9 0 2 1967 21.7 0 3 2015 19.7 0 4 2009 13.6 0 5 2005 13.3 0 - 1993 13.3 0 6 1984 13.0 0 7 1996 12.0 0 8 1969 11.0 0 9 1978 10.4 0 10 2001 10.3 0 Monthly Data for March 2018 for Suffolk County, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 33.8 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 31.9 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 30.5 FARMINGVILLE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 27.8 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 25.0 LAKE GROVE 1.2 SSW CoCoRaHS 25.0 COMMACK 0.8 SSW CoCoRaHS 24.4 CENTERPORT COOP 21.7 WADING RIVER 2.0 NW CoCoRaHS 21.3 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 21.0 RONKONKOMA 1.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 20.3 March was cold but dry here after a snowstorm on the 1st, but Dec-Feb was snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I did not run the numbers against the coldest 30-year normals, aka 1961-90. If I have time I'll run them for Detroit against the cold 1961-90 normals and the mild 1931-60 normals. Not as much as you might like to think. The normals were corrected for location and site exposure and not just averages of records from various locations. From what I could glean from the Local Climatological Data publications, the normals for each site were as follows: Detroit Metropolitan Wayne Airport 1931-1960 [1967 revision, after it became the official climate site in 1966] 1961-1990 So yeah, it was quite a bit colder during the winter, but there were seasonal variations. Spring was warmer in the 1961-1990 normals, and summer pretty similar. Fall was fairly similar but with some interesting ups [November] and downs [October]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Normals for Boston Logan Airport 1931-1960 on the left, 1961-1990 on the right And for Buffalo Niagara Airport: As you can see, at Boston, winters were only slightly cooler in the 1961-1990 normals versus the 1931-1960 normals. At Buffalo, the winters were actually warmer in the 1961-1990 normals versus the 1931-1960 normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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