2024-2025 La Nina

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

I had brought it up a while back, but the guy I work with and I were discussing the lack of typhoons and hurricanes over the last couple years. So there still has to be energy transfer that occurs but this seems to be occurring in ways with less overall activity and stronger storms. With overall activity down there seems to be a situation of how does the energy become used in the more northern latitudes and one way that seems to be popping up is more prolific rainfall events. I believe you have posted the increase in anomalous rainfall events over the past decade or so. Definitely something to continue to watch if these SST profiles continue on their path. That temp gradient is just not there right now as much as it use to but we can still spin off storms occasionally.

I know many are going for a hyper active season but ACE wise this could get there without needing 30 storms in a season.

I thought I saw some funkiness when looking at the 500mb world map view last night. Good to see it being confirmed 

I think we are talking about such enormous amounts of upper ocean heat that even the 4th most active WPAC typhoon season in 2015 by ACE at 462 ACE 26/20/09 couldn’t reduce the SST departures much over the WPAC. We did see some relative cooling east of the Philippines. But area in the key MJO 5 area warmed leading to the record warmth and MJO 5 in December 2015 for a super El Niño. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think you guys are overestimating hurricanes.. the thermocline is where real value is, for pattern effect. That lies 100-250meters below the surface, and hurricanes rarely reach that far in depth of spinning up the oceans. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nice catch with the Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere warming.. the QBO just turned positive last month, and the La Nina is still weak, so the strong correlation with both of those phases to 10mb is not really in effect yet.. obviously I can do roll forwards that will probably show a higher chance for northern Hemisphere Strat warming in the cold season, but with both of those indexes (QBO, ENSO) strengthening, it shifts things a bit. Still, it's nice to see somewhat of a positive factor for Winter cold, since everything N. Hemisphere has been warm ad nauseam. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Real nice subsurface cold.. -5c, approaching -6c on the TAO/Triton maps in the last day.. It's right where you want it in the central-subsurface region too, for highest effect.  Will be interesting to see if we can develop a cooling trend at the surface in the coming weeks. 

Obviously, the N. Hemisphere H5 is correlation with the subsurface

500mb doesn't care that the surface is still +Neutral

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think you guys are overestimating hurricanes.. the thermocline is where real value is, for pattern effect. That lies 100-250meters below the surface, and hurricanes rarely reach that far in depth of spinning up the oceans. 

It is well known that hurricanes affect only the upper maybe 20m of oceanic temp but repeated action over a particular area will actually cause changes in the thermocline over time. Speed and strength as well as overall size play into these factors. I do not believe it is enough to cause massive changes but a change in the pattern is a change in the pattern to which longwave can start to take over. Look at what happened west of Bermuda this past year one solid system in September (Franklin) started a rather decent chain reaction to a more consistent troughing pattern as we went into fall and winter over the region.

So it is not out of the realm of possibilities to note that this is an important factor. It is not perfect as we know many things in weather tend not to be so it doesn't always portend to a situation but it makes me think there is actually something to it.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The 3 years that stand out compared to their predecessors for Atlantic activity, 1995, 2005, and 2020 did have a Wintertime -NAO in the midst of a +NAO general time.. but I think give it like 20 examples over 200 years, the correlation would be less than 0.1. Still, this is interesting, I guess

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I’d love to get a 4” event as 3-4” tend to be ~once a generation event down here. I haven’t even had a T of wintry precip since Jan of 2018, which is the longest wintry precip drought on record.
 
 This area had 3-4” (or the liquid equiv (LE) in a mixed bag of wintry precip) in 12/1989, 2/1973, 2/1968, and 2/1934. The heaviest, which were from LE of 0.75”-1.25”+, included significant IP and/or ZR and occurred in 1/2018, 1/1922, and 2/1914. 1/1922 and 2/1914 had severe ZR. So, since 1900, this area has gotten the LE of 3-4”+ storms seven times or once every 18 years. The LE of 1”+ of snow has occurred ~16-20 times since 1900 or once every ~7 years. So, even just 1” is a pretty big deal down here.

Do you ever travel to see snow?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Dec 1989 was a historically cold month in the East, then all of a sudden the pattern changed. The rest of the winter was well above average temperaturewise. At PHL, Jan 1990 was 15 degrees warmer than Dec 1989. That's one of the strangest temperature oddities ever. It was another one of the unicorn winters (like 2019-20 and 1978-79), which was a very weak la nina (really a carry over from the previous year's strong la nina) in the fall that dissipated to an ENSO neutral as we went to winter.

Now, watch how the pattern flips in January 1990: 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Dec 1989 was a historically cold month in the East, then all of a sudden the pattern changed. The rest of the winter was well above average temperaturewise. At PHL, Jan 1990 was 15 degrees warmer than Dec 1989. That's one of the strangest temperature oddities ever. It was another one of the unicorn winters (like 2019-20 and 1978-79), which was a very weak la nina (really a carry over from the previous year's strong la nina) in the fall that dissipated to an ENSO neutral as we went to winter.

ONI was +0.1 for DJF 89-90. The La Nina died in May 1989, and kept warming through the year.. per ONI, definitely not a Weak La Nina

But I remember in 05-06, we were using 89-90 as an analog for the Winter, because of the strong -QBO, rising, and maybe neg Neutral ENSO conditions. It worked out pretty good. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I’d love to get a 4” event as 3-4” tend to be ~once a generation event down here. I haven’t even had a T of wintry precip since Jan of 2018, which is the longest wintry precip drought on record.
 
 This area had 3-4” (or the liquid equiv (LE) in a mixed bag of wintry precip) in 12/1989, 2/1973, 2/1968, and 2/1934. The heaviest, which were from LE of 0.75”-1.25”+, included significant IP and/or ZR and occurred in 1/2018, 1/1922, and 2/1914. 1/1922 and 2/1914 had severe ZR. So, since 1900, this area has gotten the LE of 3-4”+ storms seven times or once every 18 years. The LE of 1”+ of snow has occurred ~16-20 times since 1900 or once every ~7 years. So, even just 1” is a pretty big deal down here.

It's probably a 20 hour drive to Buffalo, NY. You should do it.  I was driving through the south recently, and can't really believe how short term this current climate cycle is regarding the trees and wildlife.. I imagined it could be very cold and snowy in the south at times, but it's just so sensitive to every little mile these days. 

[George001]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Shame.......it used to be the correct forecast that paid the bills.

Even if it does end up being a big winter, im not giving JB and DT credit if they are right for the wrong reasons. Given that the current PDO is strongly negative and that is consistent with the projected ENSO state for the winter, there isn’t a good reason to question the strongly -PDO forecasts. Also, DT straight up calling for ENSO neutral is laughable. The latest NOAA update yesterday gave an 80% chance of La Niña conditions being present during the winter. There is a stronger case for a moderate La Niña than ENSO neutral. 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Do you ever travel to see snow?

 I’ve done it but not recently.

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I’ve done it but not recently.

Cool. Put the Great Lakes on your bucket list. Even in the worst, warmest winters it snows plenty of times. In the good winters, it can snow near daily.

[snowman19]

Absolutely no sign of this solar max cycle peaking yet. We are most likely several months away from the actual peak….solar activity/sunspots/flares/geomag are still increasing and extremely impressive. @GaWx Sunspots look to go over 200:
 

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

ONI was +0.1 for DJF 89-90. The La Nina died in May 1989, and kept warming through the year.. per ONI, definitely not a Weak La Nina

But I remember in 05-06, we were using 89-90 as an analog for the Winter, because of the strong -QBO, rising, and maybe neg Neutral ENSO conditions. It worked out pretty good. 

Classic case of the MJO 8-2 in December going into 4-6 in January effectively ending the winter on January 1st.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Absolutely no sign of this solar max cycle peaking yet. We are most likely several months away from the actual peak….solar activity/sunspots/flares/geomag are still increasing and extremely impressive. @GaWx Sunspots look to go over 200:
 

Looks like we're at the top with a double peak per smoothed numbers near the bottom of the page.

https://solen.info/solar/index.html

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Real nice subsurface cold.. -5c, approaching -6c on the TAO/Triton maps in the last day.. It's right where you want it in the central-subsurface region too, for highest effect.  Will be interesting to see if we can develop a cooling trend at the surface in the coming weeks. 

Obviously, the N. Hemisphere H5 is correlation with the subsurface

500mb doesn't care that the surface is still +Neutral

Very impressive subsurface cold (approaching -6C) now in region 3.4. Courtesy of an upwelling Kelvin wave. Extremely likely some of this makes it to the surface with the enhanced easterly trades. Also, very pronounced tropical instability waves showing up on the new SST charts in the ENSO regions….an indication of rather healthy La Niña development 

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looks like we're at the top with a double peak per smoothed numbers near the bottom of the page.

https://solen.info/solar/index.html

The solar experts have estimated that the peak should occur at the tail end of this year/early next year. We won’t know for sure that the peak occurred until after it has already happened 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The solar experts have estimated that the peak should occur at the tail end of this year/early next year. We won’t know for sure that the peak occurred until after it has already happened 

Apparently the "expert" at that link says the peak was in May per the "Monthly solar cycle data."

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Apparently the "expert" at that link says the peak was in May per the "Monthly solar cycle data."

Given what is going on right now, that assessment would obviously be wrong. Sunspots don’t continue to increase after a peak

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Given what is going on right now, that assessment would obviously be wrong. Sunspots don’t continue to increase after a peak

I don't know if that's the only criteria they use. If you look at the graph at the top of the page, it includes sunspot numbers as well as solar flux and 3 other measures. I never looked into it nor really care for that matter. We're at or near the top now and should be headed down come winter is all I need to know.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Very impressive subsurface cold (approaching -6C) now in region 3.4. Courtesy of an upwelling Kelvin wave. Extremely likely some of this makes it to the surface with the enhanced easterly trades. Also, very pronounced tropical instability waves showing up on the new SST charts in the ENSO regions….an indication of rather healthy La Niña development 

I'm just impressed with how the ENSO subsurface connects with what is happening globally. 

SOI has been negative the last 4 days:

13 Jul 2024	1011.20	1010.70	-2.77
12 Jul 2024	1009.77	1012.40	-22.04
11 Jul 2024	1010.29	1014.45	-31.46
10 Jul 2024	1012.55	1014.15	-15.70

 

In 95-96, the Winter that went +PNA during a La Nina, the central-subsurface was Neutral-Positive throughout the Winter. There are many such examples of the surface and subsurface diverging, and the H5 pattern, or things like hurricanes, matching the subsurface

 

Technically, an upwelling wave is a Rossby wave. Kelvin waves have to do more with a lowering of the thermocline and developing subsurface warmth.

[George001]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Very impressive subsurface cold (approaching -6C) now in region 3.4. Courtesy of an upwelling Kelvin wave. Extremely likely some of this makes it to the surface with the enhanced easterly trades. Also, very pronounced tropical instability waves showing up on the new SST charts in the ENSO regions….an indication of rather healthy La Niña development 

More reason to NOT buy the Euro and its ENSO Neutral prediction. 

[raindancewx]

CPC has the US pretty cold in the 6-10 and 8-14 period. It's already been pretty cold in the interior of the continent. We're close to trending behind the very late La Nina development of 2017-18 at this point. My guess is we'll eventually see SSTs at the surface drop off like a rock for a brief period, and then a flat lining and reversal will start shortly thereafter. We'll hit the La Nina SST thresholds for several months, but not the duration for an official La Nina - that's my guess. All the bitching I see in the news lately has been about how hot it has been. But it really seems like a strange month to complain about it in the US. At best parts of the US will be very warm and parts will be very cold. La Nina typically coincides with the Atlantic acting like it is an El Nino (a big warm stripe by the equator). We have a big cold stripe in the Atlantic at the equator. So I'm still fairly skeptical of a huge season. A relatively low number of storms that are very powerful, and a normal number of weak short-lived storms is at least as likely as a hyperactive season (that would see many powerful and weak storms).

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Apparently the "expert" at that link says the peak was in May per the "Monthly solar cycle data."

Its rough to tell...it gets calculated as we move forward in time and it won't always be apparent for several months when exactly the peak was. It's a fluid situation. 

[roardog]

I know I’ve brought up Joe Daleo a lot in this thread but it’s because I’ve read a lot of relevant stuff from him about this topic over the years. Another interesting tidbit he talks about is how we tend to only have weak enso events when the solar cycle is descending. He says it’s usually Nino, sometimes strong around max then weak enso events during the descending period. If we have peaked, maybe weak(ONI) is favored. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

CPC has the US pretty cold in the 6-10 and 8-14 period. It's already been pretty cold in the interior of the continent. We're close to trending behind the very late La Nina development of 2017-18 at this point. My guess is we'll eventually see SSTs at the surface drop off like a rock for a brief period, and then a flat lining and reversal will start shortly thereafter. We'll hit the La Nina SST thresholds for several months, but not the duration for an official La Nina - that's my guess. All the bitching I see in the news lately has been about how hot it has been. But it really seems like a strange month to complain about it in the US. At best parts of the US will be very warm and parts will be very cold. La Nina typically coincides with the Atlantic acting like it is an El Nino (a big warm stripe by the equator). We have a big cold stripe in the Atlantic at the equator. So I'm still fairly skeptical of a huge season. A relatively low number of storms that are very powerful, and a normal number of weak short-lived storms is at least as likely as a hyperactive season (that would see many powerful and weak storms).

Cfs2 new extended forecast out today for Jan-Mar is looking a lot like the Cansips' July run.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

34 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Cfs2 new extended forecast out today for Jan-Mar is looking a lot like the Cansips' July run.

I certainly wouldn't go cold in the Great Lakes and Northeast with a cold anomaly over Alaska and Greenland. I think they are latching onto what has happened in July, with a +EPO and cold in the center of the country, which is opposite of what usually happens in +EPO:

^correlation map is reverse

I was going to respond to raindancewx this, how odd the cooler weather is there with a +EPO this month. ^two 0.5 correlations disconnecting, pretty rare. 

These global models initialize what is happening recently and run it out alot. 

Even more the interesting correlation with ENSO subsurface which is dominating everything right now for forecasting value

[Stormchaserchuck1]

20 hours ago, George001 said:

Even if it does end up being a big winter, im not giving JB and DT credit if they are right for the wrong reasons. Given that the current PDO is strongly negative and that is consistent with the projected ENSO state for the winter, there isn’t a good reason to question the strongly -PDO forecasts. Also, DT straight up calling for ENSO neutral is laughable. The latest NOAA update yesterday gave an 80% chance of La Niña conditions being present during the winter. There is a stronger case for a moderate La Niña than ENSO neutral. 

DT mentions a lot the cooler scenarios to internet audience, but when he makes forecasts to his paid clients, he usually goes warmer. 

I agree with you that the La Nina still looks healthy in developing. 

[snowman19]

New research (November, 2023) on the QBO and ENSO, both Niñas and Niños. It confirms the older research and shows a strong connection between an easterly (or -QBO)/La Niña and a weak stratospheric polar vortex/-AO and a westerly (or +QBO)/La Niña and a strong SPV/+AO. @Stormchaserchuck1

Link: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-023-07040-x