2024-2025 La Nina

[Terpeast]

46 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

This first part was just SST, but I am wanting to do atmospheric ones after I wrap up this up. I'll make sure to hit all of those!

Keep me posted, please!

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I believe we are witnessing the models with a synergistically ( wave harmonic) improved ridge event in this scenario. 

Not being over land is probably a blessing.  These are found in the vicinity of notable surface heat bursts that have been occurring with increased frequency dappled around the globe. 

They are atypical to normal summer positive anomaly behavior - though do preferentially occur during the spring and summer months.  Where they do, surface temperatures may soar well beyond guidance/machine based interpolations.

Yeah, we are lucky this isn’t as great of a seasonal 500mb height departure as 02-20-18 was. But these extreme 500 mb height anomalies have been becoming more frequent since around 2010. Members of the forum much more liked the numerous 500mb winter height records near Greenland in the 2009 to 2011 era. Also the winter 500 mb height records over the EPO and PNA NE Pacific regions during 2014 and 2015. The record 500mb ridge in the PAC NW and British Columbia areas during the summer of 2021 was associated with the all-time heat in those areas. But for monthly departures the December 2015 standing wave with gave us the 50° December +13.3° departures around NYC could actually be the most extreme right up there with March 2012 in the Great Lakes region. So this process can be expressed in new all-time daily 500 mb and temperature records or monthly averages. Plus we can’t forget the record 500 mb ridge parked over Canada for much of 2023. 
 

 

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be interested in seeing data concerning how rapidly winter time temp maxes are rising. I am sure that they are, believe me....but I do know that the rate of GW is being driven more so by higher mins. Again, I am SURE that maxes are also rising...believe me, but I am just interested in knowing just how fast because I know that its not as fast as daytime mins.

In recent years the warming nights in summer are by far the most noticeable factor locally. We still get the occasional cool summer night, but not nearly with frequency we used to. I attribute it to increasing humidity, as the extreme summer maxes are way down the past few decades save for a few years, despite overall hot summers.

The 30 year averages at Detroit show no clear cut trend re: max or min warming more than the other, esp with the 1960s-70s-80s cold dip.

WINTER

1881-1910: 32.3 / 20.0
1891-1920: 31.5 / 19.3
1901-1930: 32.1 / 19.6
1911-1940: 33.2 / 20.5
1921-1950: 34.0 / 21.2
1931-1960: 34.3 / 21.6
1941-1970: 33.6 / 20.8
1951-1980: 33.1 / 19.7
1961-1990: 32.8 / 18.6
1971-2000: 33.9 / 19.7
1981-2010: 34.5 / 20.9
1991-2020: 35.1 / 21.7

 

SUMMER

1881-1910: 78.9 / 61.0
1891-1920: 79.0 / 61.3
1901-1930: 78.9 / 61.3
1911-1940: 80.2 / 61.7
1921-1950: 80.9 / 61.7
1931-1960: 81.7 / 61.7
1941-1970: 81.3 / 61.1
1951-1980: 81.3 / 60.2
1961-1990: 81.2 / 59.8
1971-2000: 81.3 / 60.4
1981-2010: 81.4 / 61.6
1991-2020: 81.9 / 62.6
 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

That 604dm ridge is so impressive! We are still 2 weeks from the hottest point of the year, and the Atlantic broke it by 4dm! I'm saying.. the jet stream is really lifting north right now. I always thought that the standard deviation of blocks over Alaska, Greenland, and the Arctic would match the general warming that is happening, but over the last few years they have acted "capped". As long as we only max out near previous record in those locations, the mid-latitudes will torch. 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I found the plume from July 2007, a year that developed into a strong la nina: 

 

Needless to say, most of the models got this one wrong. Some of the models even predicted a weak el nino, lol.  

1. JMA/Euro/BoM did pretty well with this July of 07 prediction. They (especially BoM) were actually too cool in JAS (BoM before last year actually didn’t have a warm bias) but were near perfect for ASO/SON. But instead of more cooling like actually occurred, they then started warming.

 Like I’ve mentioned before, the JMA is one I pay extra attention to due to overall pretty good results along with no strong bias. This was one of the better years for the Euro for La Niña but it had company.

 UKMET was way down in Lala land with its -2.4. MeteoFrance was its typical way too warm self with a mere -0.1.

 CFS was too cool in JAS, perfect in ASO, and then warmed way too soon. Kind of similar to JMA/Euro/BoM.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

In recent years the warming nights in summer are by far the most noticeable factor locally. We still get the occasional cool summer night, but not nearly with frequency we used to. I attribute it to increasing humidity, as the extreme summer maxes are way down the past few decades save for a few years, despite overall hot summers.

The 30 year averages at Detroit show no clear cut trend re: max or min warming more than the other, esp with the 1960s-70s-80s cold dip.

WINTER

1881-1910: 32.3 / 20.0
1891-1920: 31.5 / 19.3
1901-1930: 32.1 / 19.6
1911-1940: 33.2 / 20.5
1921-1950: 34.0 / 21.2
1931-1960: 34.3 / 21.6
1941-1970: 33.6 / 20.8
1951-1980: 33.1 / 19.7
1961-1990: 32.8 / 18.6
1971-2000: 33.9 / 19.7
1981-2010: 34.5 / 20.9
1991-2020: 35.1 / 21.7

 

SUMMER

1881-1910: 78.9 / 61.0
1891-1920: 79.0 / 61.3
1901-1930: 78.9 / 61.3
1911-1940: 80.2 / 61.7
1921-1950: 80.9 / 61.7
1931-1960: 81.7 / 61.7
1941-1970: 81.3 / 61.1
1951-1980: 81.3 / 60.2
1961-1990: 81.2 / 59.8
1971-2000: 81.3 / 60.4
1981-2010: 81.4 / 61.6
1991-2020: 81.9 / 62.6
 

Yeah. I don’t think there’s much doubt that all the extra moisture around the planet is responsible for the warmer lows. It’s probably also why the Arctic is always well above average in the cold season but not so much during the warm season. If you add just a little moisture to a very cold airmass, it will warm significantly but it doesn’t have the same effect in the summer when it’s not nearly as cold.

[so_whats_happening]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think the upper ocean heat content is so high that hurricanes and typhoons won’t really shift the surface SSTs as much as they did in the past with lower upper ocean heat content. Remember several years ago how we had one of the most active typhoon seasons on record followed by one of the strongest marine heatwaves during the following winter. The reserve of deep warmth in the WPAC was so strong in the fall of 2019 into 2020 that the record IOD cooling near Indonesia was reversed to record warmth in under 2 months. 

 

 

It is possible that is the case it seems as though when these waters have cooled in the NW PAC and NW Atlantic the surface has been the only thing affected basically the first ~15-25m (I feel this is even being generous). It seems to have not had a dent into the thermocline which when the pattern bounces back it is able to quickly allow the warmth to rebuild. So that does make sense to me, I do not believe ocean heat depth is measured outside the tropics? Please correct me if I am wrong on that.

Here is a great example where last spring into summer along the east coast to NFL region actually was rather cool in surface based anomalies we rapidly changed that as we went into June and July fairly similar to this year. The feedback when the pattern came back roasting the oceans just kept building on itself into the NW Atlantic and NW Pacific in August and September. Even when we got Franklin last year it managed to make a solid below average stripe off the east coast but failed to actively stay strong into the NFL region to make a solid dent in the SST, though the 500mb did change up shortly after that occurred. So whether it was the hurricane or seasonality is always up for discussion.

I feel if we consistently are able to get strong storms in the area between Bermuda and east coast and have several large hurricanes recurve we could start to make dents but that has yet to be seen. One storm ain't gonna do it. Especially if we get landfalling hurricanes that may only fuel the ridge pattern over the Atlantic like Beryl seemingly is doing in the Atlantic right now. I feel Beryl was moving just way too fast to cause a large wake and actually was a rather tiny storm overall even though the impacts it had were intense to land. You will have to let me know which year you are referencing for the WPAC. Would love to check out the tracks that year in comparison to where the SST distribution set up.

 

[snowman19]

  As already posted, the most recent Euro autumn ONI warmed ~0.2 (from -0.3 to -0.1) while the BoM cooled ~0.3 (from +0.1 to -0.2). The UKMET cooled ~0.1 from ~-0.9 to ~-1.0. So, those three averaged ~0.1 cooler. Just as a reminder, the UKMET did great last year (about the best)
 But the new JMA (which also did well last year) and MeteoFrance runs cooled substantially JMA by ~0.3 and France by ~0.4:
1. JMA
June run: SON ~-0.5
 
July run: SON ~-0.8

2. MeteoFrance:
June run: SON ~+0.1

 
July run: SON ~-0.4

 
Summary of latest SON ONI forecasts (subtract ~0.5 to estimate RONI):
Euro: warmed 0.2 to ~-0.1 (has a longterm warm bias/slightly too warm last year but warm bias stronger when non-Nino)
BoM: cooled 0.3 to ~-0.2 (huge warm bias last year)
MeteoFrance: cooled 0.5 to ~-0.4 (strong warm bias)
JMA: cooled 0.3 to ~-0.8 (no known significant bias/did well last year)
UKMET: cooled 0.1 to ~-1.0 (did best last year/no known significant bias)
CFS: warmed 0.1 to ~-1.1 (overall limited accuracy; I think it has cool bias)
 So, with the significantly cooler JMA/MeteoFrance, I’m thinking the chances for a solid weak La Niña per ONI are increasing again (vs cold neutral). This also means the chances for a moderate La Niña per RONI are increasing again (vs weak).

The expected July strengthening period looks like a go:

CPC:

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

It is possible that is the case it seems as though when these waters have cooled in the NW PAC and NW Atlantic the surface has been the only thing affected basically the first ~15-25m (I feel this is even being generous). It seems to have not had a dent into the thermocline which when the pattern bounces back it is able to quickly allow the warmth to rebuild.

Yeah, on top of that there has been a near record low number of typhoons so subsidence continues to warm this seas.
 

 

[snowman19]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, on top of that there has been a near record low number of typhoons so subsidence continues to warm this seas.
 

 

Anomalous high pressure over the North Pacific = continued record strong -PDO

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Anomalous high pressure over the North Pacific = continued record strong -PDO

Parts of Australia have been the only region of the Pacific basin to have experienced colder temperatures recently and now they are getting a rare SSW over Antarctica.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Anomalous high pressure over the North Pacific = continued record strong -PDO

I don't think I have seen any opposition anywhere to another strong -PDO this winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, on top of that there has been a near record low number of typhoons so subsidence continues to warm this seas.
 

 

1959 and 1975 both featured near normal snowfall for this area the ensuing winter. Sign me up if I could lock that in.

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think I have seen any opposition anywhere to anothet strong -PDO this winter.

No, JB has been incessantly hyping and wishcasting that the PDO is somehow magically going to turn raging positive. That’s why he’s using the asinine analog of 14-15

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1959 and 1975 both featured near normal snowfall for this area the ensuing winter. Sign me up if I could lock that in.

I think we are going to need a mismatch along the lines of Jan 22 in order to avoid our first 3 consecutive +4 to +5 winters around NYC.

NYC

Feb 24…+4.2

Jan 24..+3.3

Dec 23..+5.5

…………..+4.3

 

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.8

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

No, JB has been incessantly hyping and wishcasting that the PDO is somehow magically going to turn raging positive. That’s why he’s using the asinine analog of 14-15

Is he really? Jesus....opposite ENSO signal and complete opposite extra tropical Pacific regime....I would have that season as one of @raindancewx's "antilogs" TBH.

I still say he knows better than this and is clearly selling out for clicks....either that, or JB stands for Joe Biden.

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is he really? Jesus....opposite ENSO signal and complete opposite extra tropical Pacific regime....I would have that season as one of @raindancewx's "antilogs" TBH.

I still say he knows better than this and is clearly selling out for clicks....either that, or JB stands for Joe Biden.

I haven't seen him mention 2014-5 in recent weeks. But prior to that when he was showing random Weather Bell versions of CFS for next winter, he was referring to 2014-5 among other winters because a good number of the Weather Bell CFS runs were literally showing a 2014-5 like solid +PDO due to a combo of a 1000 mile wide 4000 mile long solid area of BN SST anomalies from E of Japan to just N of Hawaii along with the warmest anomalies in practically the entire Pacific just off of Western North America. But the odd thing is that the Trop Tidbits versions, which I trust way more, never showed anything of the sort as  they showed a continued strong -PDO.

 There appear to be problems with the WxBell algos related to their CFS maps. I don't think JB even realizes it as I doubt he looks at TT maps. I have posted about this several times.

[FPizz]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I haven't seen him mention 2014-5 in recent weeks. But prior to that when he was showing random Weather Bell versions of CFS for next winter, he was referring to 2014-5 among other winters because a good number of the Weather Bell CFS runs were literally showing a 2014-5 like solid +PDO due to a combo of a 1000 mile wide 4000 mile long solid area of BN SST anomalies from E of Japan to just N of Hawaii along with the warmest anomalies in practically the entire Pacific just off of Western North America. But the odd thing is that the Trop Tidbits versions, which I trust way more, never showed anything of the sort as  they showed a continued strong -PDO.

 There appear to be problems with the WxBell algos related to their CFS maps. I don't think JB even realizes it as I doubt he looks at TT maps. I have posted about this several times.

I only follow him on X and haven't heard him speak much about this upcoming winter at all so far.  Mostly just the tropics he's been talking about when he actually talks about weather.

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I only follow him on X and haven't heard him speak much about this upcoming winter at all so far.  Mostly just the tropics he's been talking about when he actually talks about weather.

He stopped talking about it on X about a month ago because he knows he’s going to get ripped apart. He’s been hyping on the paid site to get subscription money from the weenies

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

He stopped talking about it on X about a month ago because he knows he’s going to get ripped apart. He’s been hyping on the paid site to get subscription money from the weenies

That "DirectWeather" on youtube or facebook is another weenie site....guys hypes everything and is usually wrong. Every winter looks severe over the NE.

[FPizz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That "DirectWeather" on youtube or facebook is another weenie site....guys hypes everything and is usually wrong. Every winter looks severe over the NE.

Yeah, the NE is what pays the bills for winter   

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, the NE is what pays the bills for winter   

Shame.......it used to be the correct forecast that paid the bills.

[FPizz]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Shame.......it used to be the correct forecast that paid the bills.

Yup agreed.

[michsnowfreak]

17 hours ago, roardog said:

Yeah. I don’t think there’s much doubt that all the extra moisture around the planet is responsible for the warmer lows. It’s probably also why the Arctic is always well above average in the cold season but not so much during the warm season. If you add just a little moisture to a very cold airmass, it will warm significantly but it doesn’t have the same effect in the summer when it’s not nearly as cold.

More moisture is definitely a good thing for the Great Lakes region. Snowfall continues to do fine even in warm winters (yes last winter sucked snow wise, I'm talking overall)

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

More moisture is definitely a good thing for the Great Lakes region. Snowfall continues to do fine even in warm winters (yes last winter sucked snow wise, I'm talking overall)

I'll take the trade off for a greater frequency of larger storms, even if my the mean snowfall continues to decrease. Take last year of instance.....just over 34", but that one 19" event in January was awesome. What I couldn't stand is a winter comprised of several advisory events and maybe one low-end warning. I am fine with sacraficing a few 4" events if it nets me more big fish.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take the trade off for a greater frequency of larger storms, even if my the mean snowfall continues to decrease. Take last year of instance.....just over 34", but that one 19" event in January was awesome. What I couldn't stand is a winter comprised of several advisory events and maybe one low-end warning. I am fine with sacraficing a few 4" events if it nets me more big fish.

In a way, more moisture would benefit both regions in different ways. Your area would continue to get those whopper storms with increasing frequency, even if you sacrifice smaller storms. It seems many northeast locations have their biggest storm on record in the past 2 decades, and I see no reason why that doesnt continue. My area would continue to chug along w/ light to moderate snowfalls that get enhanced by the Great Lakes. Some people get so bent out of shape over "how much has this placed warmed or that place warmed" they forget that cold winter climates are still cold winter climates. Below average snow seasons will happen. How can they not? Average is not average if its always above (as it was starting to seem like by 2015). Warmer winters will suck for snowpack but it also seems to increase the frequency of storms with blinding wet snow & thundersnow (as we experienced several times during the last 2 warm winters). As an all-around winter weather weenie, I rarely go into a winter truly worried about snowfall. Its more about how the patterns will cooperate and how much or little cold/ice-covered lakes/snowcovered landscape will I get to enjoy.  

[so_whats_happening]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, on top of that there has been a near record low number of typhoons so subsidence continues to warm this seas.
 

 

I had brought it up a while back, but the guy I work with and I were discussing the lack of typhoons and hurricanes over the last couple years. So there still has to be energy transfer that occurs but this seems to be occurring in ways with less overall activity and stronger storms. With overall activity down there seems to be a situation of how does the energy become used in the more northern latitudes and one way that seems to be popping up is more prolific rainfall events. I believe you have posted the increase in anomalous rainfall events over the past decade or so. Definitely something to continue to watch if these SST profiles continue on their path. That temp gradient is just not there right now as much as it use to but we can still spin off storms occasionally.

I know many are going for a hyper active season but ACE wise this could get there without needing 30 storms in a season.

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Parts of Australia have been the only region of the Pacific basin to have experienced colder temperatures recently and now they are getting a rare SSW over Antarctica.

 

 

 

I thought I saw some funkiness when looking at the 500mb world map view last night. Good to see it being confirmed 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take the trade off for a greater frequency of larger storms, even if my the mean snowfall continues to decrease. Take last year of instance.....just over 34", but that one 19" event in January was awesome. What I couldn't stand is a winter comprised of several advisory events and maybe one low-end warning. I am fine with sacraficing a few 4" events if it nets me more big fish.

 I’d love to get a 4” event as 3-4” tend to be ~once a generation event down here. I haven’t even had a T of wintry precip since Jan of 2018, which is the longest wintry precip drought on record.
 
 This area had 3-4” (or the liquid equiv (LE) in a mixed bag of wintry precip) in 12/1989, 2/1973, 2/1968, and 2/1934. The heaviest, which were from LE of 0.75”-1.25”+, included significant IP and/or ZR and occurred in 1/2018, 1/1922, and 2/1914. 1/1922 and 2/1914 had severe ZR. So, since 1900, this area has gotten the LE of 3-4”+ storms seven times or once every 18 years. The LE of 1”+ of snow has occurred ~16-20 times since 1900 or once every ~7 years. So, even just 1” is a pretty big deal down here.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

I had brought it up a while back, but the guy I work with and I were discussing the lack of typhoons and hurricanes over the last couple years. So there still has to be energy transfer that occurs but this seems to be occurring in ways with less overall activity and stronger storms. With overall activity down there seems to be a situation of how does the energy become used in the more northern latitudes and one way that seems to be popping up is more prolific rainfall events. I believe you have posted the increase in anomalous rainfall events over the past decade or so. Definitely something to continue to watch if these SST profiles continue on their path. That temp gradient is just not there right now as much as it use to but we can still spin off storms occasionally.

I know many are going for a hyper active season but ACE wise this could get there without needing 30 storms in a season.

I thought I saw some funkiness when looking at the 500mb world map view last night. Good to see it being confirmed 

I think we are talking about such enormous amounts of upper ocean heat that even the 4th most active WPAC typhoon season in 2015 by ACE at 462 ACE 26/20/09 couldn’t reduce the SST departures much over the WPAC. We did see some relative cooling east of the Philippines. But area in the key MJO 5 area warmed leading to the record warmth and MJO 5 in December 2015 for a super El Niño. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think you guys are overestimating hurricanes.. the thermocline is where real value is, for pattern effect. That lies 100-250meters below the surface, and hurricanes rarely reach that far in depth of spinning up the oceans.