2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I remember reading something about recurves being the biggest variable, they were connecting it with the NAO. I think you need a really neutral climate for such a thing to occur. 

Yes, from the little I do remember, they were tying recurving hurricanes and tropical storms into -NAO development during the winter. It was all NAO related discussion. Here’s my question…..does high ACE from low latitude East-West tracking tropical systems have the same effect as recurves that gain latitude poleward into the far North Atlantic? I would think that recurves do a way better job of transporting latent and sensible tropical heat energy and momentum into the tropopause of the North Atlantic and subsequently pumping ridges than do low latitude East-West tracking tropical systems 

@40/70 Benchmark @GaWx @raindancewx @bluewave  Thoughts?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, from the little I do remember, they were tying recurving hurricanes and tropical storms into -NAO development during the winter. It was all NAO related discussion. Here’s my question…..does high ACE from low latitude East-West tracking tropical systems have the same effect as recurves that gain latitude poleward into the far North Atlantic? I would think that recurves do a way better job of transporting latent and sensible tropical heat energy and momentum into the tropopause of the North Atlantic and subsequently pumping ridges than do low latitude East-West tracking tropical systems 

@40/70 Benchmark @GaWx @raindancewx @bluewave  Thoughts?

Well, I think anytime you accumulate an ACE north of 200 there is going to be an inherently high number of recurves...we aren't going to get 30 landfalling systems.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Totally fair to be skeptical of 200+ ACE....don't blame anyone for that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't see why Beryl ACE 36 is going to effect the Winter.. It tracked very far south in July. The correlation is turning up N. Atlantic waters late Summer/early Fall, but even that is a very, very small thing. Usually it's the larger pattern producing X effects (cyclones) that has the weight/correlation, but +AMO/-PDO/La Nina, which is why it's likely going to be a high ACE year, is not really a cold Winter composite.  Humans can be a variable too though, I guess. I noticed changes in the weather pattern when Beryl was hitting..

I don't think anyone implied that the ACE from Bery in and of itself will in fact impact the winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this has 19-20, not 20-21... summer of 2020 was one of those high ACE years

Correct...my bad. I thought that looked more holstile than I was expecting.

Here is 2020-2021. Looks like the composite of the older high ACE seasons.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 95-96 record winter snowfall in NYC may have been related to the AMO warming which occurred that year. Boston had their snowiest winter in 15 with the brief shift to the +PDO. But the shift only lasted a few years before we entered the record -PDO regime of recent years. The famous 76-77 winter occurred as the PDO was changing from negative to positive. So we seem to get interesting winters around these change points. 

Another reason to expect a good winter around the turn of the decade, in addtion to solar min....

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The composite above for the ACE seasons is completely wrong. Some of the ESRL sites have winters tied to the final year of the monthly period, others have the winter tied to the start. This is the actual composite of the recent highest ACE years. The idea is much higher than normal pressure over the SW and West. Cold drains into the East.

Sorry about that.....sometimes I forget which is which. My mistake. I wish those were homeogeneous in that respect.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

would imagine if we even start to see a semblance of an average typhoon season we could start to show a nice cool tongue across the pacific as we get toward fall but there is a lot of work to be done. I do still find it weird we have this dual basin cold equator look that is not typical in El Nino or La Nina years (last year we also had a warm tongue through the Atlantic with a strong/super Nino). I would be curious if there is an ongoing study about this phenomena.

I think the upper ocean heat content is so high that hurricanes and typhoons won’t really shift the surface SSTs as much as they did in the past with lower upper ocean heat content. Remember several years ago how we had one of the most active typhoon seasons on record followed by one of the strongest marine heatwaves during the following winter. The reserve of deep warmth in the WPAC was so strong in the fall of 2019 into 2020 that the record IOD cooling near Indonesia was reversed to record warmth in under 2 months. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Correct...my bad. I thought that looked more holstile than I was expecting.

Here is 2020-2021. Looks like the composite of the older high ACE seasons.

Here is the correct composite for the older high ACE seasons...note that poleward Aleutian ridge.

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the upper ocean heat content is so high that hurricanes and typhoons won’t really shift the surface SSTs as much as they did in the past with lower upper ocean heat content. Remember several years ago how we had one of the most active typhoon seasons on record followed by one of the strongest marine heatwaves during the following winter. The reserve of deep warmth in the WPAC was so strong in the fall of 2019 into 2020 that the record IOD cooling near Indonesia was reversed to record warmth in under 2 months. 

 

 

Holy hell at that New Foundland warm pool 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Holy hell at that New Foundland warm pool 

It’s almost as impressive as it was last July.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/unprecedented-marine-heat-wave-canadian-atlantic-ocean-1.6986139

 

[Yanksfan]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Another reason to expect a good winter around the turn of the decade, in addtion to solar min....

So you’re saying that I have to put up with another five years of  warm snowless winters? No thanks. Time to sell the house honey and shuffle off to Buffalo!

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s almost as impressive as it was last July.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/unprecedented-marine-heat-wave-canadian-atlantic-ocean-1.6986139

 

WAR/SE ridge city

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

WAR/SE ridge city

Yeah, first 603-604 dam WAR on record next few days. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

So you’re saying that I have to put up with another five years of  warm snowless winters? No thanks. Time to sell the house honey and shuffle off to Buffalo!

Not what I said.

[Terpeast]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

WAR city

Well, that marine pool seemed to have shifted east as I compare the two maps. Maybe that has implications, or maybe it doesn’t. 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Well, that marine pool seemed to have shifted east as I compare the two maps. Maybe that has implications, or maybe it doesn’t. 

I believe Chuck @Stormchaserchuck1 said the warm pool in that region is an even stronger signal for +NAO

[40/70 Benchmark]

As we have seen over the course of the past several years, Pacific drives the bus for the most part....get a few periods of some poleward Aleutian ridging and we'll have some chances. I'm sure someone will beat me over the head with images of marine heat waves and piss in the cheerios to make a warm pool...but it is what it is. Things don't have to look orgasmic on a grander scale to catch a few stochastic breaks.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Another reason to expect a good winter around the turn of the decade, in addtion to solar min....

FWIW, 1976-77, 1995-96, and 2013-14 were 4th years following strong el ninos that produced cold and/or snowy winters, while 1977-78, 2002-03, and 2014-15 were 5th years following strong el ninos that produced cold and/or snowy winters. If there is a blockbuster winter coming up, 2027-28 and/or 2028-29 might be the sweet spot.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

FWIW, 1976-77, 1995-96, and 2013-14 were 4th years following strong el ninos that produced cold and/or snowy winters, while 1977-78, 2002-03, and 2014-15 were 5th years following strong el ninos that produced cold and/or snowy winters. If there is a blockbuster winter coming up, 2027-28 and/or 2028-29 might be the sweet spot.

I just think we need to be careful about developing a recent confirmation bias....its in vouge right now to offer up a few peer reviewed arcticles on warm pools and automoatically dismiss any wintery prospect and I understand why, but we saw the same thing happen in the other direction when things were going well. its important to try to maintain an objective view.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would be interested in seeing data concerning how rapidly winter time temp maxes are rising. I am sure that they are, believe me....but I do know that the rate of GW is being driven more so by higher mins. Again, I am SURE that maxes are also rising...believe me, but I am just interested in knowing just how fast because I know that its not as fast as daytime mins.

[Terpeast]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be interested in seeing data concerning how rapidly winter time temp maxes are rising. I am sure that they are, believe me....but I do know that the rate of GW is being driven more so by higher mins. Again, I am SURE that maxes are also rising...believe me, but I am just interested in knowing just how fast because I know that its not as fast as daytime mins.

Interesting question… I can run that analysis for KIAD as a spot check for my region. Will update later today…

[snowman19]

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be interested in seeing data concerning how rapidly winter time temp maxes are rising. I am sure that they are, believe me....but I do know that the rate of GW is being driven more so by higher mins. Again, I am SURE that maxes are also rising...believe me, but I am just interested in knowing just how fast because I know that its not as fast as daytime mins.

Based on KIAD data, both max and min are increasing... and the mins seem to be increasing just a little bit faster (steeper) than the maxes, but not by much. Maybe by a degree, or a degree and a half tops. 

 

 

[BlizzardWx]

I'm working on a project to calculate a bunch of daily index values like the world climate service does for pdo, amo, etc. I'm curious what you all would find useful and any comments on how you'd like to see it presented. 

[GaWx]

  As already posted, the most recent Euro autumn ONI warmed ~0.2 (from -0.3 to -0.1) while the BoM cooled ~0.3 (from +0.1 to -0.2). The UKMET cooled ~0.1 from ~-0.9 to ~-1.0. So, those three averaged ~0.1 cooler. Just as a reminder, the UKMET did great last year (about the best)

 But the new JMA (which also did well last year) and MeteoFrance runs cooled substantially JMA by ~0.3 and France by ~0.4:

1. JMA

June run: SON ~-0.5

 

July run: SON ~-0.8

2. MeteoFrance:

June run: SON ~+0.1

 

July run: SON ~-0.4

 

Summary of latest SON ONI forecasts (subtract ~0.5 to estimate RONI):

Euro: warmed 0.2 to ~-0.1 (has a longterm warm bias/slightly too warm last year but warm bias stronger when non-Nino)

BoM: cooled 0.3 to ~-0.2 (huge warm bias last year)

MeteoFrance: cooled 0.5 to ~-0.4 (strong warm bias)

JMA: cooled 0.3 to ~-0.8 (no known significant bias/did well last year)

UKMET: cooled 0.1 to ~-1.0 (did best last year/no known significant bias)

CFS: warmed 0.1 to ~-1.1 (overall limited accuracy; I think it has cool bias)

 So, with the significantly cooler JMA/MeteoFrance, I’m thinking the chances for a solid weak La Niña per ONI are increasing again (vs cold neutral). This also means the chances for a moderate La Niña per RONI are increasing again (vs weak).

[Terpeast]

40 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

I'm working on a project to calculate a bunch of daily index values like the world climate service does for pdo, amo, etc. I'm curious what you all would find useful and any comments on how you'd like to see it presented. 

I would indeed find the daily data useful because then I can join these indices with my own daily time series data… and do so many things with it. I prefer it in raw/tabular format so I can do my own visualizations.

Including putting it through my own AI / machine learning model to find the most important relationships and make predictions based on that. 

[BlizzardWx]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I would indeed find the daily data useful because then I can join these indices with my own daily time series data… and do so many things with it.

Including putting it through my own AI / machine learning model to find the most important relationships and make predictions based on that. 

Do you mean like a downloadable csv? So for I've got the pdo, amo, npm, nino regions, and roni worked out. I'll do IO next but beyond that I was hoping for input on what you all would find most helpful to have. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, BlizzardWx said:

Do you mean like a downloadable csv? So for I've got the pdo, amo, npm, nino regions, and roni worked out. I'll do IO next but beyond that I was hoping for input on what you all would find most helpful to have. 

Downloadable csv would be fine, but it’s your call and I can figure out how to scrape the data from whichever source you prefer. 

How about nao, ao, pna, wpo, and epo? Or are you focusing on ssts only? 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, first 603-604 dam WAR on record next few days. 

 

I believe we are witnessing the models with a synergistically ( wave harmonic) improved ridge event in this scenario. 

Not being over land is probably a blessing.  These are found in the vicinity of notable surface heat bursts that have been occurring with increased frequency dappled around the globe. 

They are atypical to normal summer positive anomaly behavior - though do preferentially occur during the spring and summer months.  Where they do, surface temperatures may soar well beyond guidance/machine based interpolations.