2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

I posted recent papers on this topic in these discussion threads. There has been a rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool since the early 80s. So forcing in those areas has been steadily increasing. More forcing there results in warmer winters for the Northeast. The period since 15-16 has been unprecedented for winter warmth in the recorded climate record. The next 5 winters will be important in determining what happens in the future. A 15 year period of observations can be helpful in determining if a new climate threshold has been crossed or not. The thing about climate thresholds is that you won’t know whether you crossed one until it’s pretty far back in the rear view mirror. We usually don’t know where they are ahead of time. So if these very warm winters are still occurring regularly by around 2030 then we may have already crossed the invisible threshold. I will continue to take one winter at a time and collect more data before making a determination one way or another.

My guess is that the WPAC warming faster than the EPAC is increasing the trades along the equator in the Central Pacific leading to more frequent La Ninas. 

And there is nothing to indicate that the record WPAC marine heatwave or the very strong, overwhelming MJO 4-6 forcing is going anywhere anytime soon

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

And there is nothing to indicate that the record WPAC marine heatwave or the very strong, overwhelming MJO 4-6 forcing is going anywhere anytime soon

All-time high temperatures in Japan with that record marine heatwave.

 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

And there is nothing to indicate that the record WPAC marine heatwave or the very strong, overwhelming MJO 4-6 forcing is going anywhere anytime soon

Was 2023-24 a MJO 4-6?

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Was 2023-24 a MJO 4-6?

It sure was. We have been stuck with that forcing for years now and it looks to continue

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Was the January 22-23, 2016 snowstorm in MJO 8 or MJO 1?

[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Was the January 22-23, 2016 snowstorm in MJO 8 or MJO 1?

Neither. It was practically in the center of the circle meaning MJO amplitude about as low as it can get (near 0). By the way low amp MJO in winter is partially correlated with cold in the E US, especially the SE:

[raindancewx]

The warm tongue east of Japan has actually weakened a lot over the past week or so. At the surface the eastern part of the La Nina has weakened too.

July has actually started very cold for a lot of the US. Not really surprising, a big portion of Western Canada was pretty cold in June. I basically agree with what the Canadian showed for Aug-Oct - a lot of powerful cold shots should come in for the next few months, for how early it is.

Also, the warmest area of the global oceans now is well north of the Equator. It's by the Philippines-SE China, rather than by Indonesia. I doubt we'll see the pronounced response to phases 4-5-6 if that area of the ocean remains so much warmer than the spots by the equator. You have areas of 30-32C SST warmth as far as like 30N in the Pacific, none of the waters by the equator are that warm by Indonesia.

[bluewave]

This is one of the strongest La Niña background patterns that we have ever seen in July. The models are all forecasting the strongest Western Atlantic ridge on record this week to 603 dam. A La Niña in July usually features a ridge just off the East Coast. But the extreme marine heatwave over the WPAC and the Atlantic are combining for a new record.

 

 

[snowman19]

Based on what is going on right now, I suspect the Euro is way too warm with its new ENSO plumes. The OHC is dropping quickly and this looks like it’s going to be quite the EWB and SOI spike. Also, as Chuck pointed out the other day we have -5C anomalies in the subsurface and strong convection in the Maritimes per VP. It appears we are going to see a healthy upwelling Kelvin wave 

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Based on what is going on right now, I suspect the Euro is way too warm with its new ENSO plumes. The OHC is dropping quickly and this looks like it’s going to be quite the EWB and SOI spike. Also, as Chuck pointed out the other day we have -5C anomalies in the subsurface and strong convection in the Maritimes per VP. It appears we are going to see a healthy upwelling Kelvin wave 

To say it's too warm is fine, but by how much is the real question. None of the models are going to be close to perfect this far out.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

To say it's too warm is fine, but by how much is the real question. None of the models are going to be close to perfect this far out.

There’s no way for anyone to know exactly how far off it is, but its La Nada projection is starting to look very unlikely 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

There’s no way for anyone to know exactly how far off it is, but its La Nada projection is starting to look very unlikely 

If we consider subsurface anomalies, we're already there (warmer than -.5C) per attached and the warming trend has not been interrupted. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I still think it's too early to rule out strong la nina. The AMJ 2024 NOAA ONI of 0.4 is still in line with the 1988 (-3 months) and 1998 analogs.

1988 (-3 months): JFM (0.5 NOAA, 0.3 ENS)

1998: AMJ (0.5 NOAA, 0.3 ENS)

FWIW, the next 3 months for each analog

1988: FMA (0.1 NOAA, 0 ENS), MAM (-0.3 NOAA, -0.5 ENS), AMJ (-0.9 NOAA, -1.0 ENS)

1998: MJJ (-0.1 NOAA, -0.4 ENS), JJA (-0.8 NOAA, -1.1 ENS), JAS (-1.1 NOAA, -1.2 ENS)

As you can see, those la ninas really got going over the next 3 months.

Note: This is assuming the ENS ONI numbers are in line with the NOAA. (Eric Webb hasn't updated since DJF 2023-24.) If the ENS numbers are warmer than what the NOAA is reporting, then we can bury the thought of 2024-25 being a strong la nina. If the ENS numbers are colder than what the NOAA is reporting, then I'm more confident 2024-25 will be a strong la nina.

[Terpeast]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

Neither. It was practically in the center of the circle meaning MJO amplitude about as low as it can get (near 0). By the way low amp MJO in winter is partially correlated with cold in the E US, especially the SE:

One could actually argue that the MJO was in 2/3 when the upstream conditions led to the storm. 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

Neither. It was practically in the center of the circle meaning MJO amplitude about as low as it can get (near 0). By the way low amp MJO in winter is partially correlated with cold in the E US, especially the SE:

The snowstorm effect can be lagged following MJO 8-2 passages by sometimes 6-10 days after. 
 

 

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

One could actually argue that the MJO was in 2/3 when the upstream conditions led to the storm. 

Also, per that chart, it was technically still in 2/3 but with very low amp during the storm.

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The snowstorm effect is lagged following MJO 8-1 passages. 
 

 

That’s a long lag (10-15 days)!

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

That’s a long lag (10-15 days)!

That’s par for the course with the MJO since the convection which initiates the Rossby wave train can take up to 5-15days to propagate around the world to our area. But sometimes the conditions are such that other teleconnections are already in place which can coincide with the favorable phase and the effect is quicker. So it’s the combination of factors which determine the timing.

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/25/3/jcli-d-11-00033.1.xml

The structure of the AO in the geopotential height and surface air temperature fields significantly varies based on the phase of the MJO; the AO index results in a preference for negative polarity in which the anomalously cold (warm) air is prevalent over the upper Midwest and New England (western United States) during the MJO phases 7–8 [convection over the Western Hemisphere; see L’Heureux and Higgins (2008)]. Lin et al. (2009) indicated that when MJO is detected in phases 6–8 (from the western Pacific to the Western Hemisphere), the NAO index is negative 5–15 days later, which can influence the weather in eastern North America and Europe.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/4/mwr-d-15-0434.1.xml

These results are broadly consistent with Barrett et al. (2015). They found an increase in March snow depth for the 7 days following phases 6–8, which would equate well with the findings of our study, given the approximate time lag of 7 days per one phase of the MJO. Their findings also found no air temperature response, indicating that the increase in snowfall was driven by increased storminess and not by a decrease in melt rates. Our results verify this relationship by showing the concomitant modulation of extratropical cyclone activity.

This study examined contemporaneous relationships between MJO phase and New England snowstorms. Thousands of kilometers separate these features, so we do not imply that the MJO’s effect is instantaneous. Rather, the MJO’s typical phase speed dictates that the MJO goes through one WH phase every 5–7 days, so some lag from the previous phase is implicit in our composites. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I still think it's too early to rule out strong la nina. The AMJ 2024 NOAA ONI of 0.4 is still in line with the 1988 (-3 months) and 1998 analogs.

1988 (-3 months): JFM (0.5 NOAA, 0.3 ENS)

1998: AMJ (0.5 NOAA, 0.3 ENS)

FWIW, the next 3 months for each analog

1988: FMA (0.1 NOAA, 0 ENS), MAM (-0.3 NOAA, -0.5 ENS), AMJ (-0.9 NOAA, -1.0 ENS)

1998: MJJ (-0.1 NOAA, -0.4 ENS), JJA (-0.8 NOAA, -1.1 ENS), JAS (-1.1 NOAA, -1.2 ENS)

As you can see, those la ninas really got going over the next 3 months.

Note: This is assuming the ENS ONI numbers are in line with the NOAA. (Eric Webb hasn't updated since DJF 2023-24.) If the ENS numbers are warmer than what the NOAA is reporting, then we can bury the thought of 2024-25 being a strong la nina. If the ENS numbers are colder than what the NOAA is reporting, then I'm more confident 2024-25 will be a strong la nina.

Not sure about a strong La Niña, however, IMO, La Nada (i.e. the Euro prediction) is quickly becoming very unlikely

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Not sure about a strong La Niña, however, IMO, La Nada (i.e. the Euro prediction) is quickly becoming very unlikely

What are you seeing to say a La Nada is "quickly becoming very unlikely?"

New weekly Enso numbers show all areas have warmed over the past 4 weeks except for area 4 which has dropped only .3C

05JUN2024     23.1-0.5     26.5-0.3     27.9 0.1     29.6 0.8
 12JUN2024     22.7-0.6     26.5-0.2     27.7 0.0     29.5 0.6
 19JUN2024     22.1-0.9     26.4-0.1     27.9 0.3     29.4 0.5
 26JUN2024     22.1-0.6     26.2-0.1     27.9 0.4     29.5 0.7
 03JUL2024     22.4-0.0     26.1-0.1     27.8 0.3     29.3 0.5

[GaWx]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

What are you seeing to say a La Nada is "quickly becoming very unlikely?"

New weekly Enso numbers show all areas have warmed over the past 4 weeks except for area 4 which has dropped only .3C

05JUN2024     23.1-0.5     26.5-0.3     27.9 0.1     29.6 0.8
 12JUN2024     22.7-0.6     26.5-0.2     27.7 0.0     29.5 0.6
 19JUN2024     22.1-0.9     26.4-0.1     27.9 0.3     29.4 0.5
 26JUN2024     22.1-0.6     26.2-0.1     27.9 0.4     29.5 0.7
 03JUL2024     22.4-0.0     26.1-0.1     27.8 0.3     29.3 0.5

  The cooling of the weeklies has been unexpectedly mainly nonexistent since late May! The June -5 SOI had a say in that. There has been a lingering shallow warm layer per ocean depth maps shown by  @Stormchaserchuck1and
@so_whats_happening(down to 75-100 meters) that has been stubborn due to overall warmth. I earlier thought RONI had a good shot at a dip to moderate to strong La Nina by autumn but as of now it is looking like moderate at the strongest with weak increasing in probability.

[snowman19]

47 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

What are you seeing to say a La Nada is "quickly becoming very unlikely?"
New weekly Enso numbers show all areas have warmed over the past 4 weeks except for area 4 which has dropped only .3C

05JUN2024     23.1-0.5     26.5-0.3     27.9 0.1     29.6 0.812JUN2024     22.7-0.6     26.5-0.2     27.7 0.0     29.5 0.619JUN2024     22.1-0.9     26.4-0.1     27.9 0.3     29.4 0.526JUN2024     22.1-0.6     26.2-0.1     27.9 0.4     29.5 0.703JUL2024     22.4-0.0     26.1-0.1     27.8 0.3     29.3 0.5

 

This month is becoming increasingly favorable for strengthening for several reasons as I outlined in my post this morning. We made this same mistake last year at this time with the El Niño, when people were saying it wasn’t strengthening and was likely to never get any stronger than moderate. The brand new NMME run is still showing a robust Niña event: 

 

 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

On 7/5/2024 at 8:12 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

Do we get cold winters anymore? I mean when was the last negative departure for a Dec-Feb? 2013-2014 I think here for Buf.

Last colder than avg winter for Buffalo was 2017-18. However, it was the only 1 of the previous 9 winters that was colder than average (1 other winter, 2018-19, was very close to avg). However, 8 of the 13 winters prior to that were colder than average.

 

In Detroit we only have to go back to 2021-22 to find a colder than avg winter. Only 2 of our past 9 winters were colder than average (and another 2 were very close to average) but 9 of the 13 winters prior to that were colder than average.

 

Im feeling good about the upcoming winter here, esp snow-wise. El Nino to La Nina transition is normally just what the snow lover ordered in the Great Lakes.  It usually comes with some rainstorms and aggravating snowpack-depleting thaws, but Ninas are rarely boring winters.

[TheClimateChanger]

43 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Last colder than avg winter for Buffalo was 2017-18. However, it was the only 1 of the previous 9 winters that was colder than average (1 other winter, 2018-19, was very close to avg). However, 8 of the 13 winters prior to that were colder than average.

 

In Detroit we only have to go back to 2021-22 to find a colder than avg winter. Only 2 of our past 9 winters were colder than average (and another 2 were very close to average) but 9 of the 13 winters prior to that were colder than average.

 

Im feeling good about the upcoming winter here, esp snow-wise. El Nino to La Nina transition is normally just what the snow lover ordered in the Great Lakes.  It usually comes with some rainstorms and aggravating snowpack-depleting thaws, but Ninas are rarely boring winters.

Technically 2017-2018 was 0.1F above the 1981-2010 normal then in effect, by my calculation. The so-called "normal" keeps being raised.

[GaWx]

New BoM forecast for ASO ONI: a bit cooler 

New run: -0.2

Old run: 0.0

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This month is becoming increasingly favorable for strengthening for several reasons as I outlined in my post this morning. We made this same mistake last year at this time with the El Niño, when people were saying it wasn’t strengthening and was likely to never get any stronger than moderate. The brand new NMME run is still showing a robust Niña event: 

 

 

 

 

Well, I  wouldn't say "we (or l) are making any mistakes at this point. I'm just looking at actual data, comparing it to model progs, and asking questions.

The fact is, everyone relies on modeling for their Enso forecasts, so it's not unreasonable to see how well their forecasts from a few months ago did compared to reality, along with their trends. If you don't, one runs the risk of being hit by a big bag of wtf down the road.

[GaWx]

Forecasted Jan 2025 H5 height anomalies from July Euro: most of US 2.4-3.5 dm above climo

[George001]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This month is becoming increasingly favorable for strengthening for several reasons as I outlined in my post this morning. We made this same mistake last year at this time with the El Niño, when people were saying it wasn’t strengthening and was likely to never get any stronger than moderate. The brand new NMME run is still showing a robust Niña event: 

 

 

 

 

Agreed on the Nina, I buy that a moderate nina is more likely than ENSO neutral. I disagree with Ben that the pattern is hostile for east coast snow, a basin wide east tilted Nina until Jan, then it moves west. That isn’t bad at all.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Technically 2017-2018 was 0.1F above the 1981-2010 normal then in effect, by my calculation. The so-called "normal" keeps being raised.

The 2017-18 winter avg temp at Buffalo was 27.0F, which is 0.9F colder than avg using 1991-20 normals, and 0.4F colder than average using the 1981-10 normals. 

******

Side note about 2017-18 here. It was an excellent winter snow-wise, snowcover wise, and also saw the longest sub-20F stretch on record for Detroit. Every month from Nov 2017 thru Apr 2018 was colder than avg except Feb. And even, Feb was memorable for its frequent and deep snow, and was running below avg temp wise through the 18th…then a monster warm spell happened the last 9 days of the month. The 9 days, which averaged around +14F above avg, completely erased Febs temp departure and made it a +3F month, which made the winter as a whole finish only around a degree below avg, whereas winter thru Feb 13th was running a solid 3.5F colder than avg
 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Forecasted Jan 2025 H5 height anomalies from July Euro: most of US 2.4-3.5 dm above climo

Thanks Larry.

I  got thinking that the EPS didn't do so hot with last winter's forecast. Although I  couldn't find a site that had the 1/24 EPS 5H forecast from July 2023, I  did find one from September 2023 for 1/24-3/24. so keep a stiff upper lip! Lol