PhiEaglesfan712 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 11 hours ago, mitchnick said: I see only 2 La Nada ONI winters after a strong or super Niño....66/67 & 92/93. Give me either of those winters imby. I actually remember snows in 2/67 too...yes, I'm old. Larry, feel free to check my work as I should just defer to you in the first place. Lol https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Yes, you are correct. In fact, we even had an el nino continue in 1958-59 (following the 1957-58 strong el nino). Years after strong/super el nino 1958-59: Weak el nino (followed by 4 years of ENSO neutral) 1966-67: ENSO neutral 1973-74: Strong la nina 1983-84: Weak la nina 1988-89: Strong la nina 1992-93: ENSO neutral 1998-99: Strong la nina 2010-11: Strong la nina 2016-17: Weak la nina It looks like every strong/super el nino since 1973 has transitioned into a la nina (4 of them strong), with the exception of 1992 (and that was likely altered by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo). So, if we go ENSO neutral, it would buck a 50+ year trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 15 hours ago, mitchnick said: Yeah, but my job is to look for silver linings! Seriously, the warmer the Niña ONI the better imho as a warmer equatorial Pacific will always increase chances for STJ interaction despite a Niña background state, and that can't be a bad thing over the winter as a whole. At least, that's the way I see it. Not sure we see an active STJ due to the PMM being strongly negative. -PMM corresponds to a weak STJ. The reason why the 95-96 Niña had the very atypical -ENSO strong STJ, besides the +PDO, was the fact that it also featured a +PMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The forecast from the ECMWF for La Nada during NDJ is identical to this point in 2016 after that super El Niño. Remember the ECMWF runs warm with its forecast plumes. The forecast was for -0.2 in NDJ and -0.7 verified. The actual ONI weakened to La Nada -0.3 in DJF. It matched the other weaker La Niña to La Nada winters which had the very strong La Niña background state. So it will be interesting to see how this one ends up and whether we follow the recent pattern of the La Nada and weak La Niña running warmer than the stronger La Ninas. We probably have to wait until we get more clues in the fall. But every La Niña regardless of strength since 11-12 has been warmer than average in the Northeast. The stronger ones finished with a smaller warm departure than the weaker ones. Snowfall was more variable with the stronger events snowier than the weaker ones. This usually followed the October early MJO indicator. Plus we have had 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row following the new and warmer global temperature baseline following the 15-16 super El Niño. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2016-July-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table ECMWF model -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 There have been so many upgrades/changes to the Euro suite, especially the addition of AI over the past year, I'm just not sure we can simply expect it to be too warm. And it's clearly a different model than it was in 2016. Whether it's better than before with recent upgrades, we'll soon find out. But I agree that a Niña background state with a La Nada ONI is a twist that will "possibly" take this out of a "cookie cutter" Niña winter forecast territory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: There have been so many upgrades/changes to the Euro suite, especially the addition of AI over the past year, I'm just not sure we can simply expect it to be too warm. And it's clearly a different model than it was in 2016. Whether it's better than before with recent upgrades, we'll soon find out. But I agree that a Niña background state with a La Nada ONI is a twist that will "possibly" take this out of a "cookie cutter" Niña winter forecast territory. I’m looking for the study right now, hopefully I can find it. It’s a few years old, but it found that there is no difference in the atmospheric response between cold-neutral/cold-La Nada and weak La Niña. Same story with warm-neutral and weak El Niño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 35 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m looking for the study right now, hopefully I can find it. It’s a few years old, but it found that there is no difference in the atmospheric response between cold-neutral/cold-La Nada and weak La Niña. Same story with warm-neutral and weak El Niño Be interesting to see what they found exactly and how old it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: I’m looking for the study right now, hopefully I can find it. It’s a few years old, but it found that there is no difference in the atmospheric response between cold-neutral/cold-La Nada and weak La Niña. Same story with warm-neutral and weak El Niño The current Nino 3.4 is +0.4. But due to the record WPAC warmth driving the record -PDO we have been getting a very robust La Niña atmospheric response. The 100° heat in June and record breaking Beryl deepening so early is like an even more amped up La Niña response than usual with the record Atlantic SST boost. So my guess is that the happenings over the Western Pacific will continue to be more influential than what the official ONI readings are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 59 minutes ago, bluewave said: The current Nino 3.4 is +0.4. But due to the record WPAC warmth driving the record -PDO we have been getting a very robust La Niña atmospheric response. The 100° heat in June and record breaking Beryl deepening so early is like an even more amped up La Niña response than usual with the record Atlantic SST boost. So my guess is that the happenings over the Western Pacific will continue to be more influential than what the official ONI readings are. So one possible scenario to consider is a warm western equatorial Pacific, east based or leaning east La Nada or weak Niña ONI, and -PDO. Almost too scared to look for analogs to that. Though warmers waters out west are usually good for east coast winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 18 minutes ago, mitchnick said: So one possible scenario to consider is a warm western equatorial Pacific, east based or leaning east La Nada or weak Niña ONI, and -PDO. Almost too scared to look for analogs to that. Though warmers waters out west are usually good for east coast winters. Unfortunately I can’t find that article but I’ll look again a bit later, if I find it I’ll post it. The problem Bluewave is mentioning is in regard to where the very warm waters are and have been for years now in the WPAC. They are allowing the MJO 4-5-6 waves to really amplify in those phases over the super warm waters. The forcing is so strong and overwhelming there that even the very warm ENSO region 4 last winter made no difference, the waters west of there were even warmer. When you have SSTs that are anomalously that warm, it alters the global heat budget. The atmosphere is always going to put the strongest convection/forcing where the warmest waters are, it’s akin to a magnet for convection, which is why we have been stuck in MJO 4-6. It completely trumped the +ENSO signal last winter, as did the very strong -PDO in the North Pacific 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: I’m looking for the study right now, hopefully I can find it. It’s a few years old, but it found that there is no difference in the atmospheric response between cold-neutral/cold-La Nada and weak La Niña. Same story with warm-neutral and weak El Niño I don't totally buy that. There definitely seems to be a bit more STJ infusion into N stream systems during a weak eEl Nino than there is during ENSO neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 24 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Unfortunately I can’t find that article but I’ll look again a bit later, if I find it I’ll post it. The problem Bluewave is mentioning is in regard to where the very warm waters are and have been for years now in the WPAC. They are allowing the MJO 4-5-6 waves to really amplify in those phases over the super warm waters. The forcing is so strong and overwhelming there that even the very warm ENSO region 4 last winter made no difference, the waters west of there were even warmer. When you have SSTs that are anomalously that warm, it alters the global heat budget. The atmosphere is always going to put the strongest convection/forcing where the warmest waters are, it’s akin to a magnet for convection, which is why we have been stuck in MJO 4-6. It completely trumped the +ENSO signal last winter, as did the very strong -PDO in the North Pacific I agree with this, but I think an east-based La Niña over the eastern Pacific could be more advantageous in terms of some favorable windows for wintry weather, even if the season is still mild in the aggregate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 35 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Unfortunately I can’t find that article but I’ll look again a bit later, if I find it I’ll post it. The problem Bluewave is mentioning is in regard to where the very warm waters are and have been for years now in the WPAC. They are allowing the MJO 4-5-6 waves to really amplify in those phases over the super warm waters. The forcing is so strong and overwhelming there that even the very warm ENSO region 4 last winter made no difference, the waters west of there were even warmer. When you have SSTs that are anomalously that warm, it alters the global heat budget. The atmosphere is always going to put the strongest convection/forcing where the warmest waters are, it’s akin to a magnet for convection, which is why we have been stuck in MJO 4-6. It completely trumped the +ENSO signal last winter, as did the very strong -PDO in the North Pacific One of the biggest examples of this was the warm neutral ONI to weak modoki El Niño in 19-20. It behaved more like a robust La Niña due to the record WPAC warm pool and marine heatwave east of Japan really amping up the Aleutian ridge and Southeast ridge. So the La Niña background state prevailed even with the SSTs approaching weak modoki status. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree with this, but I think an east-based La Niña over the eastern Pacific could be more advantageous in terms of some favorable windows for wintry weather, even if the season is still mild in the aggregate. Possibly, but the issue is, this is not being shown on any model as an east-based La Niña (i.e.: 95-96, 10-11, 17-18) those years were true east-based Niña events or started out as true east-based Niña events. 13-14 was cold-neutral/Nada, with a cold region 1+2, so “east-based cold Nada”, if you want to call it that? At no time were the models depicting this one an east-based event and they’re still not. Maybe @GaWx can chime in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 44 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Unfortunately I can’t find that article but I’ll look again a bit later, if I find it I’ll post it. The problem Bluewave is mentioning is in regard to where the very warm waters are and have been for years now in the WPAC. They are allowing the MJO 4-5-6 waves to really amplify in those phases over the super warm waters. The forcing is so strong and overwhelming there that even the very warm ENSO region 4 last winter made no difference, the waters west of there were even warmer. When you have SSTs that are anomalously that warm, it alters the global heat budget. The atmosphere is always going to put the strongest convection/forcing where the warmest waters are, it’s akin to a magnet for convection, which is why we have been stuck in MJO 4-6. It completely trumped the +ENSO signal last winter, as did the very strong -PDO in the North Pacific I am not convinced it will play out like this yet. Models are trending with the Nina strength and location and MJO has been asleep for the past month with only minor signs of life in July. Where it ends up focusing remains undetermined thanks to holding its cards close to the vest so far. Sure, warmer western Pac seems favored at this point, but we don't yet see signs of conviction with it. Time will tell with it...maybe. I'm just going to keep an open mind for now since I'm not concerned about being first with a forecast nobody cares I'm making. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Possibly, but the issue is, this is not being shown on any model as an east-based La Niña (i.e.: 95-96, 10-11, 17-18) those years were true east-based Niña events or started out as true east-based Niña events. 13-14 was cold-neutral/Nada, with a cold region 1+2, so “east-based cold Nada”, if you want to call it that? At no time were the models depicting this one an east-based event and they’re still not. Maybe @GaWx can chime in here? Wrt the east based, i was more referring to a hybrid where it is cooler in the easter Pac vs. western Pac (Enso 4.) My wag/hope is that could yield a similar result to the decent winters that had the more textbook east based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 38 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Possibly, but the issue is, this is not being shown on any model as an east-based La Niña (i.e.: 95-96, 10-11, 17-18) those years were true east-based Niña events or started out as true east-based Niña events. 13-14 was cold-neutral/Nada, with a cold region 1+2, so “east-based cold Nada”, if you want to call it that? At no time were the models depicting this one an east-based event and they’re still not. Maybe @GaWx can chime in here? Most recent progs I've seen are favoring something in-between E and W based with 3 and 3.4 about the same and warmer than 1+2 and 4. ....so neither. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 56 minutes ago, bluewave said: One of the biggest examples of this was the warm neutral ONI to weak modoki El Niño in 19-20. It behaved more like a robust La Niña due to the record WPAC warm pool and marine heatwave east of Japan really amping up the Aleutian ridge and Southeast ridge. So the La Niña background state prevailed even with the SSTs approaching weak modoki status. Also, RONI of 19-20 peaked at a mere +0.24 vs +0.55 ONI. So, not all that close to weak Nino on that basis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 The atmospheric response is because the subsurface is La Nina. I can't stress this enough. The discovery is an amazing leap forward! 95-96 was a +PNA Winter. +PNA is not a function of La Nina. But the subsurface for 95-96 was not La Nina, it was ENSO Neutral: 00-01 was another +PNA Winter. Subsurface this year was also Neutral in the central ENSO region, not La Nina: You can look it all up here. https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/ I made an index once of subsurface vs surface and found 25% higher correlation to the N. Pacific pattern, going back to 1979. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 23 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Hard to believe the surface is going to stay Neutral with this in the subsurface.. Although the global warming of oceans skew is so high right now.. it's hard imagine a -1c occurring at the surface anywhere.. We are also "sitting" in the same global patterns as the last 26-29 years Chuck, What's the deal with the lingering warmth in the top 75-100m right above the strong Nina in 100-250m corridor? I can't ever recall seeing something similar. Doesn't that cold water need to reach the sfc for it to impart a Nina-like reaction? It almost looks like a battle of the very warm oceans vs the forming Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 56 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Possibly, but the issue is, this is not being shown on any model as an east-based La Niña (i.e.: 95-96, 10-11, 17-18) those years were true east-based Niña events or started out as true east-based Niña events. 13-14 was cold-neutral/Nada, with a cold region 1+2, so “east-based cold Nada”, if you want to call it that? At no time were the models depicting this one an east-based event and they’re still not. Maybe @GaWx can chime in here? I was speaking in a hypothetical sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 49 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Wrt the east based, i was more referring to a hybrid where it is cooler in the easter Pac vs. western Pac (Enso 4.) My wag/hope is that could yield a similar result to the decent winters that had the more textbook east based. This is what 2010 was (not claiming it's an analog)...hybrid with an eastward lean. That said, I understand there are other key differences from that season, such as solar, QBO, West PAC, etc... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 33 minutes ago, GaWx said: Chuck, What's the deal with the lingering warmth in the top 75-100m right above the strong Nina in 100-250m corridor? I can't ever recall seeing something similar. Doesn't that cold water need to reach the sfc for it to impart a Nina-like reaction? It almost looks like a battle of the very warm oceans vs the forming Nina. Nino 4 functions as a continuum. It moves up or down over several years, vs the east region which are more in flux year-to-year. The major warming last year is taking a long time to change, and the global oceans are record warm, and the SOI hasn't topped +3 monthly since Apr 2023. So surface factors are holding onto warm anomalies. I found the greatest correlation to ENSO effects is about 100-220m below the surface. Last year the El Nino started east-based and took a while to shift to west-based closer to the Winter. The actual pattern acted like it was an east-based El Nino through the entire event so take that for what it's worth.. the near-surface holding onto warm anomalies is more for the western surface ENSO region vs eastern regions.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The atmospheric response is because the subsurface is La Nina. I can't stress this enough. The discovery is an amazing leap forward! 95-96 was a +PNA Winter. +PNA is not a function of La Nina. But the subsurface for 95-96 was not La Nina, it was ENSO Neutral: 00-01 was another +PNA Winter. Subsurface this year was also Neutral in the central ENSO region, not La Nina: You can look it all up here. https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/ I made an index once of subsurface vs surface and found 25% higher correlation to the N. Pacific pattern, going back to 1979. Usually RONI and MEI are more reflective of the subsurface than ONI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 19 minutes ago, GaWx said: Also, RONI of 19-20 peaked at a mere +0.24 vs +0.55 ONI. So, not all that close to weak Nino on that basis. Not much difference between +0.24 and +0.55 ONI as either in our older climate would have been more El Niño modoki-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Usually RONI and MEI are more reflective of the subsurface than ONI. Yeah, but the MEI uses OLR, 850mb winds, 200mb winds.. I've compared them all and still find subsurface temps pure have the greatest effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, but the MEI uses OLR, 850mb winds, 200mb winds.. I've compared them all and still find subsurface temps pure have the greatest effect. I like RONI better than the ONI TBH..last year was a great example of the limitations of the MEI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like RONI better than the ONI TBH..last year was a great example of the limitations of the MEI. Subsurface was also nowhere near the surface last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Subsurface was also nowhere near the surface last year. Makes sense given the hemisphere still had great cool ENSO tendencies that belied the rather robust warm ENSO interval. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Makes sense given the hemisphere still had great cool ENSO tendencies that belied the rather robust warm ENSO interval. -PNA Winter of 72-73 had a cold subsurface too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 34 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The atmospheric response is because the subsurface is La Nina. I can't stress this enough. The discovery is an amazing leap forward! But it’s not the subsurface east of the Dateline driving the pattern. This pattern also has a warmer surface component west of the Dateline. That warm pool at the surface over the WPAC is what has been producing the perma-La Niña background state since the 15-16 super El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: But it’s not the subsurface east of the equator driving the pattern. This pattern also has a warmer surface component west of the Dateline. That warm pool at the surface is what has been producing the perma-La Niña background state since the 15-16 super El Niño. I just know that there is a PNA correlation. CDC correlation composites show that the PDO is higher correlated than Nino 4, 3.4, 3, 1.2, but if you compare it to subsurface conditions, ENSO correlates higher than the PDO in the N. Pacific. Perma-La Nina state has been ongoing since 1998: I'm not really sure what you mean by east of the equator.. can you clarify? Do you mean east of the dateline? I disagree. The warming in the region you are referring is actually very +AMO-related, and is more an after-effect of things happening globally https://ibb.co/C8kZdkV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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