2024-2025 La Nina

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Well, I'm not so sure about your MJO 4-6 prediction. It's been stuck in the COD for a long stretch and the more reliable modeling has it visiting 4-6 briefly before hibernating back into the COD. It's early, I know, but this has been an uncharacteristically long stretch in the COD with more time in it to come, so nothing's locked in yet imho.

 June of 2024 having this low of an amp isn’t all that rare. However, the last one was 13 years ago. The Junes since 1975 with MJO about this low of an amplitude or lower were these 8: 2011, 2005, 2000, 1995, 1990, 1989, 1980, and 1976. So, about 1/6 of the time (uncommon but not that rare).

 But the only other year I could find back to 1975 with this low an amp for Apr-June was 2000! So, that puts Apr-June of 2024 in quite rarified territory.

 I’m going to analyze these 8 years to see whether or not I think there may be significant implications. I’ll start off by throwing out 1976 as a potential good analog since that was La Niña to El Niño. Assuming we’re really going to have La Niña, the best analogs of these would be 2011, 2005 (huge ACE, too), 2000, and 1995 (huge ACE, too).

 That leaves the ENSO neutral years of 1990, 1989, and 1980. I don’t like 1990 since it just missed El Niño later in the year. Also, I don’t think 1989 is all that good because it followed La Niña. But 1980 looks good since it not only followed El Niño but its June AND May MJOs were both of low amp, it went to cold neutral, and ACE was pretty high.

 Of the 4 La Niña analogs, I’d say 2005 and 1995 are the best because they both followed El Nino and had high ACE. I’d put 2000 as pretty good despite being Nina to Nina only because its Apr-June was the only other with as low amp MJO as 2024. 2011 doesn’t look that good because it was also Niña to Niña and didn’t have the low amp Apr-June.

 So, I’m left with:
-best June MJO analogs 2005/1995 (marked below w/**)
-good June MJO analogs 2000/1980 (marked below w/*)

 More later on whether or not I think these June MJO analogs are of much forecasting significance….maybe I’ll decide no but I need more time to analyze other factors.

——————————

Data:

2024: low amp Apr-Jun/Nino to Niña?/high ACE?

2011: low amp Jun/Nina to Nina

 

**2005: low amp Jun/Nino to Niña/huge ACE**

*2000: low amp Apr-Jun/Nina to Nina*

 

**1995: low amp Jun/Nino to Niña/huge ACE**

 

1990: low amp Jun/neutral to +neutral

 

1989: low amp Jun/Niña to neutral

 

*1980: low amp MJ/Nino to -neut/high ACE*

 

1976: low amp Apr & Jun/Niña to Nino

[so_whats_happening]

We are starting to see some changes in the far north pacific waters and this Aleutian ridging pattern will only help enhance it. Less Gulf of Alaska low action will allow warming into the NE Pacific over time. I think it is possible we start to actually tame down the -PDO as we head toward winter. Especially if the ridge persists much further east compared to around mainland China to Japan.

BTW this is the latest start to the EPAC hurricane season July 2nd was the latest if my numbers are correct.

 

[raindancewx]

I mentioned a while ago that the upper level high over Mexico had to move or get destroyed as a condition of the hurricane season ramping up. Check out May v. June 2024.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

We are starting to see some changes in the far north pacific waters and this Aleutian ridging pattern will only help enhance it. Less Gulf of Alaska low action will allow warming into the NE Pacific over time. I think it is possible we start to actually tame down the -PDO as we head toward winter. Especially if the ridge persists much further east compared to around mainland China to Japan.

BTW this is the latest start to the EPAC hurricane season July 2nd was the latest if my numbers are correct.

 

Wasn't the record set last year with Hurricane Adrian?

Anyways, this EPAC season is going to set some record low activity.

[so_whats_happening]

37 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Wasn't the record set last year with Hurricane Adrian?

Anyways, this EPAC season is going to set some record low activity.

That formed on June 27th

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-5c popping in the central ENSO-subsurface. It's made a nice drop the last few days. I still contest there is a direct no-time correlation between subsurface region and the N. Pacific pattern. LR models showing N. Pacific ridge and US-based ridge definitely looks like La Nina. 

[mitchnick]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 June of 2024 having this low of an amp isn’t all that rare. However, the last one was 13 years ago. The Junes since 1975 with MJO about this low of an amplitude or lower were these 8: 2011, 2005, 2000, 1995, 1990, 1989, 1980, and 1976. So, about 1/6 of the time (uncommon but not that rare).

 But the only other year I could find back to 1975 with this low an amp for Apr-June was 2000! So, that puts Apr-June of 2024 in quite rarified territory.

 I’m going to analyze these 8 years to see whether or not I think there may be significant implications. I’ll start off by throwing out 1976 as a potential good analog since that was La Niña to El Niño. Assuming we’re really going to have La Niña, the best analogs of these would be 2011, 2005 (huge ACE, too), 2000, and 1995 (huge ACE, too).

 That leaves the ENSO neutral years of 1990, 1989, and 1980. I don’t like 1990 since it just missed El Niño later in the year. Also, I don’t think 1989 is all that good because it followed La Niña. But 1980 looks good since it not only followed El Niño but its June AND May MJOs were both of low amp, it went to cold neutral, and ACE was pretty high.

 Of the 4 La Niña analogs, I’d say 2005 and 1995 are the best because they both followed El Nino and had high ACE. I’d put 2000 as pretty good despite being Nina to Nina only because its Apr-June was the only other with as low amp MJO as 2024. 2011 doesn’t look that good because it was also Niña to Niña and didn’t have the low amp Apr-June.

 So, I’m left with:
-best June MJO analogs 2005/1995 (marked below w/**)
-good June MJO analogs 2000/1980 (marked below w/*)

 More later on whether or not I think these June MJO analogs are of much forecasting significance….maybe I’ll decide no but I need more time to analyze other factors.

——————————

Data:

2024: low amp Apr-Jun/Nino to Niña?/high ACE?

2011: low amp Jun/Nina to Nina

 

**2005: low amp Jun/Nino to Niña/huge ACE**

*2000: low amp Apr-Jun/Nina to Nina*

 

**1995: low amp Jun/Nino to Niña/huge ACE**

 

1990: low amp Jun/neutral to +neutral

 

1989: low amp Jun/Niña to neutral

 

*1980: low amp MJ/Nino to -neut/high ACE*

 

1976: low amp Apr & Jun/Niña to Nino

Thanks Larry! But looking at the MJO progs this morning, you may want to wait because continued hibernation in the COD looks favored for most of July too.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Thanks Larry! But looking at the MJO progs this morning, you may want to wait because continued hibernation in the COD looks favored for most of July too.

Those are just the RMM plots which are usually less amplified this time of year. But the main forcing as per the VP anomalies since June 20th has been MJO 3-6. It’s forecast to continue into July as the convection slowly travels east. So we are getting a very strong La Niña atmospheric response based on the ongoing marine heatwaves west of the Dateline in the tropics and east of Japan. 
 

 

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-5c popping in the central ENSO-subsurface. It's made a nice drop the last few days. I still contest there is a direct no-time correlation between subsurface region and the N. Pacific pattern. LR models showing N. Pacific ridge and US-based ridge definitely looks like La Nina. 

Classic La Niña longwave pattern and forcing. It looks like a decent upwelling Kelvin wave with the subsurface drop and I suspect with the EWB/enhanced trades the surface drops rather substantially by the end of this month and we see a large SOI spike

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Those are just the RMM plots which are usually less amplified this time of year. But the main forcing as per the VP anomalies since June 20th has been MJO 3-6. It’s forecast to continue into July as the convection slowly travels east. So we are getting a very strong La Niña atmospheric response based on the ongoing marine heatwaves west of the Dateline in the tropics and east of Japan. 
 

 

No doubt the atmosphere is in a Nina state, but the MJO forcing is weak as reflected in the RMM plot COD. But despite the Nina state, the ssta haven't responded as of yet as most modeling predicted. So the question in my mind is "why not?" My wag is the lack of a strong, coherent MJO to support it. With modeling weakening the strength of the Nina vs. earlier runs, that suggests to me MJO forcing remains weak through the fall into winter. If that's the case, how does that change the picture, if at all, for winter in the east?  The rest of all this Niña, PDO, etc. talk means nothing to me if it has nothing to do with winter! That's as far as my scientific curiosity goes to be honest. Lol

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

No doubt the atmosphere is in a Nina state, but the MJO forcing is weak as reflected in the RMM plot COD. But despite the Nina state, the ssta haven't responded as of yet as most modeling predicted. So the question in my mind is "why not?" My wag is the lack of a strong, coherent MJO to support it. With modeling weakening the strength of the Nina vs. earlier runs, that suggests to me MJO forcing remains weak through the fall into winter. If that's the case, how does that change the picture, if at all, for winter in the east?  The rest of all this Niña, PDO, etc. talk means nothing to me if it has nothing to do with winter! That's as far as my scientific curiosity goes to be honest. Lol

I am guessing that the weaker Nino 3.4 and stronger -PDO are related to the current global record SSTs. We are just coming off a borderline super El Niño event so it naturally takes longer for Nino 3.4 to cool. This is what happened during the 16-17 La Niña following the 15-16 super El Niño.  It took until the following season in 17-18 for the La Niña SSTs and ONI to drop lower. So the Euro rushed the cooling of Nino 3.4 from the forecasts issued back in the spring. The same way it tried to weaken the current marine heatwave east of Japan and south of the Aleutians. So both SST areas are now warmer in the recent forecast issued about an hour ago. The current record -PDO is allowing a much stronger La Niña atmospheric response than expected from just using the official ONI SSTs. As per the MJO details, we usually have to wait until at least October to get some hints as it’s usually less amplified during the warm season. 

New Euro run stronger marine heatwave south of Aleutians and east of Japan continuing to drive the stronger -PDO heading into fall

Older run weaker marine heatwave south of Aleutians and -PDO and stronger La Niña cooling in Nino 3.4

 

 

[snowman19]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am guessing that the weaker Nino 3.4 and stronger -PDO are related to the current global record SSTs. We are just coming off a borderline super El Niño event so it naturally takes longer for Nino 3.4 to cool. This is what happened during the 16-17 La Niña following the 15-16 super El Niño.  It took until the following season in 17-18 for the La Niña SSTs and ONI to drop lower. So the Euro rushed the cooling of Nino 3.4 from the forecasts issued back in the spring. The same way it tried to weaken the current marine heatwave east of Japan and south of the Aleutians. So both SST areas are now warmer in the recent forecast issued about an hour ago. The current record -PDO is allowing a much stronger La Niña atmospheric response than expected from just using the official ONI SSTs. As per the MJO details, we usually have to wait until at least October to get some hints as it’s usually less amplified during the warm season. 

New Euro run stronger marine heatwave south of Aleutians and east of Japan continuing to drive the stronger -PDO heading into fall

Older run weaker marine heatwave south of Aleutians and -PDO and stronger La Niña cooling in Nino 3.4

 

 

Verbatim, the new run is also showing a central-based La Niña now and a continued blazing AMO

[mitchnick]

56 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Verbatim, the new run is also showing a central-based La Niña now and a continued blazing AMO

What are you looking at to reach that conclusion? The new plumes look closer to a La Nada.

 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

What are you looking at to reach that conclusion? The new plumes look closer to a La Nada.

 

The new run Bluewave posted is clearly showing a central-based, region 3.4 event. Further, the Euro has had a very strong warm bias in its ENSO forecasts for quite awhile now. @GaWx research showed this

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Thanks Larry! But looking at the MJO progs this morning, you may want to wait because continued hibernation in the COD looks favored for most of July too.

Indeed it does. So, I’ll now look at which of those 8 low amp June MJO years remained weak through July: 

-2011: no but was already a poor analog 

-2005: remained fairly weak in Jul (and even into Aug) keeping this a top June/July low amp MJO analog

-2000: not at all and thus knocking it out as a good analog

-1995: not at all and thus knocking it out as a top analog or even a good analog

-1990: no but was already a poor analog

-1989: no but was already a poor analog

-1980: yes, very weak in July; was already a good low amp June MJO analog but this raises it further to a top weak MJO June/July analog

-1976: yes, very weak in July but Niña to Nino already made this a poor analog

 So, by incorporating a weak July MJO, I’m left with only 2005 and 1980 as noteworthy analogs. They both followed El Niño, headed to either Niña or cold neutral, and had high ACE.

 But as Chris said, these are only based on RMM plots and are downplaying the VP anomalies, which show the main forcing to be the equivalent of robust forcing in 3-6 due to the very warm WPAC water. Related to this, the PDO in both 2005 and 1980 was so much higher than 2024, which is probably enough to disqualify 2005 and 1980 as useful analogs with the current strong -PDO not expected to go away anytime soon.

 Any other opinions?

 

 

[Terpeast]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Indeed it does. So, I’ll now look at which of those 8 low amp June MJO years remained weak through July: 

-2011: no but was already a poor analog 

-2005: remained fairly weak in Jul (and even into Aug) keeping this a top June/July low amp MJO analog

-2000: not at all and thus knocking it out as a good analog

-1995: not at all and thus knocking it out as a top analog or even a good analog

-1990: no but was already a poor analog

-1989: no but was already a poor analog

-1980: yes, very weak in July; was already a good low amp June MJO analog but this raises it further to a top weak MJO June/July analog

-1976: yes, very weak in July but Niña to Nino already made this a poor analog

 So, by incorporating a weak July MJO, I’m left with only 2005 and 1980 as noteworthy analogs. They both followed El Niño, headed to either Niña or cold neutral, and had high ACE.

 But as Chris said, these are only based on RMM plots and are downplaying the VP anomalies, which show the main forcing to be the equivalent of robust forcing in 3-6 due to the very warm WPAC water. Related to this, the PDO in both 2005 and 1980 was so much higher than 2024, which is probably enough to disqualify 2005 and 1980 as useful analogs with the current strong -PDO not expected to go away anytime soon.

 Any other opinions?

 

 

Without any decent analogs in the running, and in a warming world with off the charts marine heat waves off Japan, I’m thinking that maybe the analog strategy isn’t the most ideal one to apply for this coming year. 

Maybe raindance is onto something with his alternative strategy. I’m just not familiar how to apply this in practice. 

[mitchnick]

47 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new run Bluewave posted is clearly showing a central-based, region 3.4 event. Further, the Euro has had a very strong warm bias in its ENSO forecasts for quite awhile now. @GaWx research showed this

That map would constitute a La Nada with BN ssta only at -.2 to -.5, and it's not even Enso 3.4.

That said, it's a fall map, so that's why I used the plumes that go into 2025.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Without any decent analogs in the running, and in a warming world with off the charts marine heat waves off Japan, I’m thinking that maybe the analog strategy isn’t the most ideal one to apply for this coming year. 

Maybe raindance is onto something with his alternative strategy. I’m just not familiar how to apply this in practice. 

If the -PDO and marine heatwaves in those areas continue to be this strong going into the fall and winter, then it would probably mean a highly amplified Aleutian ridge. You can see the last frame of the Euro showing this. The recent CANSIPS was also moving toward this look in its recent update. So a very strong La Niña background state even if the ONI is only in La Nada to weak La Niña territory. 
 

 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the -PDO and marine heatwaves in those areas continue to be this strong going into the fall and winter, then it would probably mean a highly amplified Aleutian ridge. You can see the last frame of the Euro showing this. The recent CANSIPS was also moving toward this look in its recent update. So a very strong La Niña background state even if the ONI is only in La Nada to weak La Niña territory. 
 

 

 Those are ugly maps if you don’t want a mild E US winter. I’d already seen the ugly CANSIPS maps. Would you please post the new Euro 2m temp anomaly maps? TIA

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the -PDO and marine heatwaves in those areas continue to be this strong going into the fall and winter, then it would probably mean a highly amplified Aleutian ridge. You can see the last frame of the Euro showing this. The recent CANSIPS was also moving toward this look in its recent update. So a very strong La Niña background state even if the ONI is only in La Nada to weak La Niña territory. 
 

 

That still looks like a much better pattern than last year to me. Canada looks much colder and the PV is elongated towards the NE US.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think people are conditioned to perceive another virtually snowless winter if guidance doesn't have "1995-1996" in neon lights on the stamp.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

If the -PDO and marine heatwaves in those areas continue to be this strong going into the fall and winter, then it would probably mean a highly amplified Aleutian ridge. You can see the last frame of the Euro showing this. The recent CANSIPS was also moving toward this look in its recent update. So a very strong La Niña background state even if the ONI is only in La Nada to weak La Niña territory. 
 

 Chris, after looking at this Euro map more closely, I see that >95% of the N Hem has H5 forecasted for NDJ to be >1 DM above the 1993-2016 based normal with 0% >1 DM BN. I usually think of 1 DM as the equivalent of ~1 F. So, this is suggesting 95% of the NH is forecasted to be 1+ F AN in NDJ. I guess that’s realistic considering how rapidly the globe has been warming since 1993 thus suggesting true up to date normals are probably a whopping ~2F warmer than 1993-2016. Does that seem right? Do you think it has warmed that rapidly?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That still looks like a much better pattern than last year to me. Canada looks much colder and the PV is elongated towards the NE US.

 I can see it easily being significantly colder than last winter’s very mild winter in the NE, especially NNE. That shouldn’t be difficult to do. But these maps, everything else I’ve seen, and most indicators suggest the SE US will be much warmer than last winter’s only slightly AN as well as much drier.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think people are conditioned to perceive another virtually snowless winter if guidance doesn't have "1995-1996" in neon lights on the stamp.

Only a complete fool (or someone that follows Joe Bastardi) would be expecting a 95-96 or 10-11 redux since absolutely nothing even remotely supports that. Same story with 13-14, 14-15, 17-18….

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Only a complete fool (or someone that follows Joe Bastardi) would be expecting a 95-96 or 10-11 redux since absolutely nothing even remotely supports that. Same story with 13-14, 14-15, 17-18….

Yea, there was some sarcasm implied....

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I can see it easily being significantly colder than last winter’s very mild winter in the NE, especially NNE. That shouldn’t be difficult to do. But these maps, everything else I’ve seen, and most indicators suggest the SE US will be much warmer than last winter’s only slightly AN as well as much drier.

This I agree with....just saying, my money is on a better winter than last season for a lot of NE (especially SNE), even if still somewhat subpar.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I don't think we are going to so easily be better than last Winter, although when you have almost nothing it's difficult to do better.. We had some good -AO periods last Winter, and when the NAO went + in late January, Washington DC easily warmed up to 80 degrees, making it the first time that ever happened late Nov - late February.

Now with the N. Atlantic SSTs warming rapidly over the lagged NAO predictor area, and QBO turning positive, it's looking like there is much higher likelihood this will be +NAO Winter. The recent heat wave in the northeast, US that happened a week ago spiked when the NAO briefly went positive, and I am seeing this on MR models again.. so +NAO periods have been going very warm since the start of 2024. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't think we are going to so easily be better than last Winter, although when you have almost nothing it's difficult to do better.. We had some good -AO periods last Winter, and when the NAO went + in late January, Washington DC easily warmed up to 80 degrees, making it the first time that ever happened late Nov - late February.

Now with the N. Atlantic SSTs warming rapidly over the lagged NAO predictor area, and QBO turning positive, it's looking like there is much higher likelihood this will be +NAO Winter. The recent heat wave in the northeast, US that happened a week ago spiked when the NAO briefly went positive, and I am seeing this on MR models again.. so +NAO periods have been going very warm since the start of 2024. 

Of course the NAO will be positive, I told you that back in May when you were doubting it...all I'm saying is that the January chart that I commented on is an example of how to salvage a decent winter in NE with a +NAO and healthy la Nina. Hindsight outlook 2007 and let me know how that looked for winter in New England..save for the QBO, but ACE will likely be higher this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

What did Boston get, 9" last year? I'll bet anyone right now $100 that we beat that.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Of course the NAO will be positive, I told you that back in May when you were doubting it...all I'm saying is that the January chart that I commented on is an example of how to salvage a decent winter in NE with a +NAO and healthy la Nina. Hindsight outlook 2007 and let me know how that looked for winter in New England..save for the QBO, but ACE will likely be higher this year.

I don't think a small cyclone near South America will change the N. American Winter that much. The correlation is colder waters from upwelling in the N. Atlantic, especially in Sept. But 2005 is starting to be a good analog.. remember when I went for the warmest Winter lol. We had 28 storms that year. It was the 7th warmest Winter. There was a huge N. Atlantic SST +NAO signal that Summer season. 

We've had some cold bursts lately.. remember when Kansas City hit -35F wind chill for Chiefs home playoff game. 

-EPO can still do it.. but for that I think you need a Weaker or nonexistent La Nina. I use the subsurface, and it's in Moderate La Nina range.