2024-2025 La Nina

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Here is a comparison date to date 2024 and 1998. I only use TAO as it looks cleaner with displaying purposes versus this which you kind of have to do some extra steps to get a similar look. This site also uses monthly data versus 5 day, monthly, and quarterly that TAO uses. TAO has limitations in date range though as it only goes back to I think 1988.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html

This is not to say we are experiencing something completely different as the moving average is still very real, so 1998 would look colder on a warming average (1991-2020 as the current average).

I saw that current Tao map yesterday on the Stormsurf site linked below.

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

I assumed it was wrong because it's showing temps well above everything else i.e. Oisst and Coral Reefs. In fact, if you go to that Stormsurf link directly below the Tao map you posted, there is a different subsurface anomaly map from Godas that looks way more reasonable. 

That said, to your point, this year is still warmer than 1998.

[so_whats_happening]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I saw that current Tao map yesterday on the Stormsurf site linked below.

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

I assumed it was wrong because it's showing temps well above everything else i.e. Oisst and Coral Reefs. In fact, if you go to that Stormsurf link directly below the Tao map you posted, there is a different subsurface anomaly map from Godas that looks way more reasonable. 

That said, to your point, this year is still warmer than 1998.

Thanks for the site Ill keep that in my bookmarks.

The GODAS has only updated to the 17th so TAO around then was like this. You can see on GODAS it did warm a bit toward the end not as much as what TAO is showing but will be interested to see if it follows suit in the next update (should be later today or tomorrow). 

Another thing though is GODAS, im pretty certain goes 5N-5S whereas TAO is only 2N-2S so it is showing a fairly narrow band right around the equator versus a broader region which could in fact be cooler over all. Intricacies like this though don't mean much in the broader sense. I would expect TAO to cool in the coming updates as we close out June and July to be a little more inline with scope of GODAS.

Especially when seeing the hovmollers actually showing signs of a nice Easterly event through the first half of July. What I also did find interesting from that site is the CFS SST forecast for the western Caribbean, July it is just on fire but as we go through to October/November it cools quite a bit this tells me there is potentially quite the Caribbean hurricane season being projected from that model. Just something to watch going forward. 

[snowman19]

21 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Thanks for the site Ill keep that in my bookmarks.

The GODAS has only updated to the 17th so TAO around then was like this. You can see on GODAS it did warm a bit toward the end not as much as what TAO is showing but will be interested to see if it follows suit in the next update (should be later today or tomorrow). 

Another thing though is GODAS, im pretty certain goes 5N-5S whereas TAO is only 2N-2S so it is showing a fairly narrow band right around the equator versus a broader region which could in fact be cooler over all. Intricacies like this though don't mean much in the broader sense. I would expect TAO to cool in the coming updates as we close out June and July to be a little more inline with scope of GODAS.

Especially when seeing the hovmollers actually showing signs of a nice Easterly event through the first half of July. What I also did find interesting from that site is the CFS SST forecast for the western Caribbean, July it is just on fire but as we go through to October/November it cools quite a bit this tells me there is potentially quite the Caribbean hurricane season being projected from that model. Just something to watch going forward. 

July’s EWB is starting to look real impressive on the models, that’s almost certainly going to trigger an upwelling Kelvin wave and probably initiate big surface and subsurface cooling. Looks like we are in for a big SOI spike too with convection moving into the maritimes. Also noticed the IOD has taken on more of a negative signature, still technically neutral, but it’s getting very close to a classic -IOD configuration 

[so_whats_happening]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

July’s EWB is starting to look real impressive on the models, that’s almost certainly going to trigger an upwelling Kelvin wave and probably initiate big surface and subsurface cooling. Looks like we are in for a big SOI spike too with convection moving into the maritimes. Also noticed the IOD has taken on more of a negative signature, still technically neutral, but it’s getting very close to a classic -IOD configuration 

Definitely will see the surface cooling as for the subsurface that will certainly be interesting to watch setup. I wish I had hovmollers from back around spring/summer of 2020.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Thanks for the site Ill keep that in my bookmarks.

The GODAS has only updated to the 17th so TAO around then was like this. You can see on GODAS it did warm a bit toward the end not as much as what TAO is showing but will be interested to see if it follows suit in the next update (should be later today or tomorrow). 

Another thing though is GODAS, im pretty certain goes 5N-5S whereas TAO is only 2N-2S so it is showing a fairly narrow band right around the equator versus a broader region which could in fact be cooler over all. Intricacies like this though don't mean much in the broader sense. I would expect TAO to cool in the coming updates as we close out June and July to be a little more inline with scope of GODAS.

Especially when seeing the hovmollers actually showing signs of a nice Easterly event through the first half of July. What I also did find interesting from that site is the CFS SST forecast for the western Caribbean, July it is just on fire but as we go through to October/November it cools quite a bit this tells me there is potentially quite the Caribbean hurricane season being projected from that model. Just something to watch going forward. 

Regarding the Caribbean hurricane season, Euro coincidentally has a decent amount of surface low pressure there for this year's hurricane season.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_mslp?area=GLOB&base_time=202406010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202407020000

[snowman19]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The GFS ensemble mean currently has a >+250dm Aleutian island ridge for July 5-6. That is the average of all ensembles, which is a ridiculous size ridge for the middle of Summer. If it verifies, it will be a continuation of the May -PNA state that was record breaking..

All these things roll forward to a warm Fall in the eastern 1/2 of the US, as the Fall is the season where the PDO has the strongest correlation with the N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern, and High pressure in the N. Pacific ocean during the Spring and Summer strengthens the -PDO leading up to that time.. 

The -PDO is feeding back and reenforcing itself. High pressure regime after high pressure regime in the North Pacific, -PNA and furnace SSTs off of Japan with no end in sight. Given the developing La Niña, I think we continue with this record negative PDO cycle

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The GFS ensemble mean currently has a >+250dm Aleutian island ridge for July 5-6. That is the average of all ensembles, which is a ridiculous size ridge for the middle of Summer. If it verifies, it will be a continuation of the May -PNA state that was record breaking..

All these things roll forward to a warm Fall in the eastern 1/2 of the US, as the Fall is the season where the PDO has the strongest correlation with the N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern, and High pressure in the N. Pacific ocean during the Spring and Summer strengthens the -PDO leading up to that time.. 

I think you can go ahead and brazenly take the leap of faith to extend that through the winter...gonna go wayyyy out on a limb.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This 25-year period from 1998 to 2024, and still ongoing.. is an interesting case study for the La Nina-global-pattern that has taken hold. 

The Hadley Cell reaction, both in the northern and southern hemisphere's is record breaking. Not a coincidence it's north and south of Nino 3.4, which is the strongest ENSO region for effect. 

I would guess it has something to do with the Sun and astronomy. I was thinking the Solar Minimum that we were going through 2000-2022 had something to do with it, but it seems to be continuing through recent sun spikes and Aura's making it far south. 

It is also possible that the 1997 El Nino event was so extreme, that an attempt to not have more extreme "global warming" events was made, and that could also explain why every Strong Nino is followed by 3+ years of La Nina's since the satellite era.. I don't know.. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you can go ahead and brazenly take the leap of faith to extend that through the winter...gonna go wayyyy out on a limb.

Nah, Joe Bastardi says the PDO is going positive, just like 1995 and 2014 lol

 

Analogs: 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15, 17-18 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you can go ahead and brazenly take the leap of faith to extend that through the winter...gonna go wayyyy out on a limb.

 

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Nah, Joe Bastardi says the PDO is going positive, just like 1995 and 2014 lol

 

Analogs: 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15, 17-18 

Another 85 year old lyric comes to mind.

Somewhere over the rainbow sky’s are blue 

And the dreams that you dare to dream do come true.

If happy little blue birds fly beyond the rainbow why oh why can’t I.

enjoy the dream Joe B. …….. Often that’s all it is.

as always …….

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, that is certainly a different take...first I have heard of La Nina/Solar Max/West QBO combination being favorable for SSWs.

@snowman19Don't shoot the messenger...just posting. Not my thoughts lol

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-data-weak-polar-vortex-usa-winter-2024-2025-fa/

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that is certainly a different take...first I have heard of La Nina/Solar Max/West QBO combination being favorable for SSWs.

@snowman19Don't shoot the messenger...just posting. Not my thoughts lol

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-data-weak-polar-vortex-usa-winter-2024-2025-fa/

If you look back at their forecasts over last 5 years, they’ve said the exact same thing every year. They always predict a weak SPV and SSWEs. +QBO/Nina/high solar absolutely does not support a very weak polar vortex and -AO/-NAO. In fact, it is the LEAST likely to produce a SSW. I have no clue what they’re looking at

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that is certainly a different take...first I have heard of La Nina/Solar Max/West QBO combination being favorable for SSWs.

@snowman19Don't shoot the messenger...just posting. Not my thoughts lol

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-data-weak-polar-vortex-usa-winter-2024-2025-fa/

 With an open mind due to curiosity, I did my own analysis of objective ENSO/Solar/QBO data back to 1958:

 1) First of all, is La Niña/W QBO really extra favorable for major SSWs?

La Niña/W: 5 major SSWs (2/26/99, 3/20/00, 1/24/09, 1/5/21, 2/16/23)

La Niña/E: 5 major SSWs (1/20/71, 2/24/84, 2/11/01, 1/21/06, 2/12/18)

El Nino/W: 5 major SSWs (1/30/58, 12/8/87, 3/14/88, 2/24/07, 1/2/19)

El Nino/E: 12 major SSWs (11/30/58, 12/16/65, 2/23/66, 11/29/68, 1/9/77, 2/29/80, 1/23/87, 2/9/10, 3/24/10, 1/16/24, 2/18/24, 3/4/24)

 Thus, I see no evidence that La Niña/W QBO is extra favorable for major SSWs. The only one of the four combos analyzed that clearly is extra favorable for major SSWs is El Niño/E QBO, like we had last winter and hopefully will again during the winter of 2025-6.

 
2) Secondly, were the five La Niña/W major SSWs mainly near solar max?

-Feb 1999: sunspots 98 and ~halfway between min and max. This, I consider this neutral solar.

-Mar 2000: sunspots 218/1 yr pre solar max

-Jan 2009: sunspots 1/solar min

-Jan 2021: sunspots 10/1.5 yr post solar min

-Feb 2023: sunspots 111/2 yrs pre solar max

 So, there was a mix and the avg sunspots of the 5 was 88, which is near longterm mean. Thus, I see no evidence of increased chance of major SSWs when La Niña/W is near solar max.

 To be clear, this analysis isn’t suggesting having a major SSW this winter is unlikely. Rather, it suggests it isn’t likely either and is instead only about a coin flip even with solar max. There have been 8 La Niña West winters since 1957-8: 1971-2, 1975-6, 1999-00, 2008-9, 2010-1, 2016-7, 2020-1, and 2022-3. So, 4 of these 8 (50%) La Niña/W winters had a major SSW.
 
  Out of curiosity, I decided to calculate the % of El Niño/E winters with at least one major SSW. These are the El Niño/E winters since 1957-8: 1958-9, 1965-6, 1968-9, 1976-7, 1979-80, 1986-7, 1991-2, 2009-10, 2014-5, and 2023-4. So, of these 10 El Niño/E winters, a whopping 8 (80%) had at least one major SSW! And the ratio of 12 majors during these 10 winters is even more impressive thanks to 3 of the 10 winters having 2+ of them! Thus, that’s even more reason to hope for El Niño next winter.

——————————————
 Edit: What % of La Niña/E winters had at least one major SSW? These were the 10 La Niña/E winters since 1957-8: 1970-1, 1974-5, 1983-4, 1995-6, 2000-1, 2005-6,  2007-8, 2011-2, 2017-8, and 2021-2. So, like for La Niña/W, half (5 of 10) of those had an SSW.

 What % of El Niño/W winters had 1+ SSWs? These were the 9 El Niño/W winters: 1957-8, 1963-4, 1977-8, 1982-3, 1987-8, 1994-5, 2006-7, 2015-6, and 2018-9. Out of the 9, 4 (44%) had at least one major SSW.

———————-

Data sources:  

ENSO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Solar (monthly sunspots): https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

QBO (30 mb): https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

Major SSW events (plus I added 2023 and 2024 events) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

@snowman19

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 With an open mind due to curiosity, I did my own analysis of objective ENSO/Solar/QBO data back to 1958:

 1) First of all, is La Niña/W QBO really extra favorable for major SSWs?

La Niña/W: 5 major SSWs (2/26/99, 3/20/00, 1/24/09, 1/5/21, 2/16/23)

La Niña/E: 5 major SSWs (1/20/71, 2/24/84, 2/11/01, 1/21/06, 2/12/18)

El Nino/W: 5 major SSWs (1/30/58, 12/8/87, 3/14/88, 2/24/07, 1/2/19)

El Nino/E: 12 major SSWs (11/30/58, 12/16/65, 2/23/66, 11/29/68, 1/9/77, 2/29/80, 1/23/87, 2/9/10, 3/24/10, 1/16/24, 2/18/24, 3/4/24)

 Thus, I see no evidence that La Niña/W QBO is extra favorable for major SSWs. The only one of the four combos analyzed that clearly is extra favorable for major SSWs is El Niño/E QBO, like we had last winter and hopefully again during the winter of 2025-6.

 
2) Secondly, were the five La Niña/W major SSWs mainly near solar max?

-Feb 1999: sunspots 98 and ~halfway between min and max. This, I consider this neutral solar.

-Mar 2000: sunspots 218/1 yr pre solar max

-Jan 2009: sunspots 1/solar min

-Jan 2021: sunspots 10/1.5 yr post solar min

-Feb 2023: sunspots 111/2 yrs pre solar max

 So, there was a mix and the avg sunspots of the 5 was 88, which is near longterm mean. Thus, I see no evidence of increased chance of major SSWs when La Niña/W is near solar max.

 To be clear, this analysis isn’t suggesting having a major SSW this winter is unlikely. Rather, it suggests it isn’t likely either and is instead only about a coin flip even with solar max. There have been 8 La Niña West winters (DJF averaged out): 1971-2, 1975-6, 1999-00, 2008-9, 2010-1, 2016-7, 2020-1, and 2022-3. So, 4 of these 8 (50%) La Niña/W winters had a major SSW.
 
  Out of curiosity, I decided to calculate the % of El Niño/E winters with at least one major SSW. These are the El Niño/E winters: 1958-9, 1965-6, 1968-9, 1976-7, 1979-80, 1986-7, 1991-2, 2009-10, 2014-5, and 2023-4. So, of these 10 El Niño/E winters, a whopping 8 (80%) had at least one major SSW! And the ratio of 12 majors during these 10 winters is even more impressive! Thus, that’s even more reason to hope for El Niño next winter.

Data sources:  

ENSO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Solar (monthly sunspots): https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

QBO (30 mb): https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

Major SSW events (plus I added 2023-4): https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

@snowman19

100%. The author of that write up either has no clue what they’re talking about or is wishcasting. There is zero evidence to support their claim that La Niña/high solar/+QBO is extremely favorable for SSWEs and a very weak stratospheric polar vortex

[PhiEaglesfan712]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 With an open mind due to curiosity, I did my own analysis of objective ENSO/Solar/QBO data back to 1958:

 1) First of all, is La Niña/W QBO really extra favorable for major SSWs?

La Niña/W: 5 major SSWs (2/26/99, 3/20/00, 1/24/09, 1/5/21, 2/16/23)

La Niña/E: 5 major SSWs (1/20/71, 2/24/84, 2/11/01, 1/21/06, 2/12/18)

El Nino/W: 5 major SSWs (1/30/58, 12/8/87, 3/14/88, 2/24/07, 1/2/19)

El Nino/E: 12 major SSWs (11/30/58, 12/16/65, 2/23/66, 11/29/68, 1/9/77, 2/29/80, 1/23/87, 2/9/10, 3/24/10, 1/16/24, 2/18/24, 3/4/24)

 Thus, I see no evidence that La Niña/W QBO is extra favorable for major SSWs. The only one of the four combos analyzed that clearly is extra favorable for major SSWs is El Niño/E QBO, like we had last winter and hopefully will again during the winter of 2025-6.

 
2) Secondly, were the five La Niña/W major SSWs mainly near solar max?

-Feb 1999: sunspots 98 and ~halfway between min and max. This, I consider this neutral solar.

-Mar 2000: sunspots 218/1 yr pre solar max

-Jan 2009: sunspots 1/solar min

-Jan 2021: sunspots 10/1.5 yr post solar min

-Feb 2023: sunspots 111/2 yrs pre solar max

 So, there was a mix and the avg sunspots of the 5 was 88, which is near longterm mean. Thus, I see no evidence of increased chance of major SSWs when La Niña/W is near solar max.

 To be clear, this analysis isn’t suggesting having a major SSW this winter is unlikely. Rather, it suggests it isn’t likely either and is instead only about a coin flip even with solar max. There have been 8 La Niña West winters since 1957-8: 1971-2, 1975-6, 1999-00, 2008-9, 2010-1, 2016-7, 2020-1, and 2022-3. So, 4 of these 8 (50%) La Niña/W winters had a major SSW.
 
  Out of curiosity, I decided to calculate the % of El Niño/E winters with at least one major SSW. These are the El Niño/E winters since 1957-8: 1958-9, 1965-6, 1968-9, 1976-7, 1979-80, 1986-7, 1991-2, 2009-10, 2014-5, and 2023-4. So, of these 10 El Niño/E winters, a whopping 8 (80%) had at least one major SSW! And the ratio of 12 majors during these 10 winters is even more impressive thanks to 3 of the 10 winters having 2+ of them! Thus, that’s even more reason to hope for El Niño next winter.

——————————————
 Edit: What % of La Niña/E winters had at least one major SSW? These were the 10 La Niña/E winters since 1957-8: 1970-1, 1974-5, 1983-4, 1995-6, 2000-1, 2005-6,  2007-8, 2011-2, 2017-8, and 2021-2. So, like for La Niña/W, half (5 of 10) of those had an SSW.

 What % of El Niño/W winters had 1+ SSWs? These were the 9 El Niño/W winters: 1957-8, 1963-4, 1977-8, 1982-3, 1987-8, 1994-5, 2006-7, 2015-6, and 2018-9. Out of the 9, 4 (44%) had at least one major SSW.

———————-

Data sources:  

ENSO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Solar (monthly sunspots): https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

QBO (30 mb): https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

Major SSW events (plus I added 2023 and 2024 events) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

@snowman19

One reason why there won't be an el nino in 2025-26: Since 1949-50, there hasn't been an el nino 2 years following any strong el nino. Besides, if there were an el nino in 2025-26, then we'd almost certainly have a +PDO pattern.
 

The next el nino won't be until 2026-27 at the earliest, and even that isn't a given.

[bluewave]

My guess is that the major global temperature spike since the 14-15 super El Niño shifted the Pacific to this new state we have been seeing with record MJO 4-6 action in the Tropical West Pacific and record SSTs from Japan to north of Hawaii in the subtropics. This pattern has been driving the record winter warmth. It’s interesting how this period was preceded by the 13-14 and 14-15 winters which only lasted a few years before this much longer 9 year pattern so far. 

 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078

The fundamental result of this study is that the first EOF of SST in the North Pacific has changed starting in 2014. For more than 20 years, the PDO has been used to describe the state of the North Pacific. However, since the marine heatwave of 2014, there have been remarkable changes to the dominant mode of SST in the North Pacific. The spatial pattern of the first EOF of SST from 1950 to 2021 is notably different from the PDO, suggesting that though the PDO served as a useful metric of SST variations until 2014 (Johnstone & Mantua, 2014), it may no longer be as effective a climate index for the North Pacific. From 1950 until the 2014 MHW, the first EOF remained consistent in its proportion of positive and negative regions with both taking up roughly half the area of the North Pacific (and with the positive region taken to be the eastern Pacific). When EOFs are calculated from 1950 to endpoints after 2014, the first EOF has a maximum positive region covering 77% of the North Pacific, with a PC indicating the largest anomalies on record. These changes to the first EOF/PC of North Pacific SST are nothing short of remarkable.

In concert with these changes, the second EOF/PC of SST has also undergone profound evolution since 2014. This second EOF now accounts for approximately 18% of the variability, growing from 13% during the 1950–2013 period. The spatial structure of the second EOF now is positive over almost the entire basin, with a PC that has grown strongly positive in the last several years. Thus, the second EOF/PC describes warming over much of the Pacific not in the positive lobe of the first.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If you look back at their forecasts over last 5 years, they’ve said the exact same thing every year. They always predict a weak SPV and SSWEs. +QBO/Nina/high solar absolutely does not support a very weak polar vortex and -AO/-NAO. In fact, it is the LEAST likely to produce a SSW. I have no clue what they’re looking at

I have noticed that. 

My interpretation of this essentially corrborates my early findings, which is that while a cold ENSO/solar max/west QBO combo may favor a strong PV, it doesn't ensure the most potent one on record.....and we could easily still have one month that featues an abundance of high latitude blocking in the mean. The season as a whole will almost assuredly feature a +NAO and probably even a +AO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 With an open mind due to curiosity, I did my own analysis of objective ENSO/Solar/QBO data back to 1958:

 1) First of all, is La Niña/W QBO really extra favorable for major SSWs?

La Niña/W: 5 major SSWs (2/26/99, 3/20/00, 1/24/09, 1/5/21, 2/16/23)

La Niña/E: 5 major SSWs (1/20/71, 2/24/84, 2/11/01, 1/21/06, 2/12/18)

El Nino/W: 5 major SSWs (1/30/58, 12/8/87, 3/14/88, 2/24/07, 1/2/19)

El Nino/E: 12 major SSWs (11/30/58, 12/16/65, 2/23/66, 11/29/68, 1/9/77, 2/29/80, 1/23/87, 2/9/10, 3/24/10, 1/16/24, 2/18/24, 3/4/24)

 Thus, I see no evidence that La Niña/W QBO is extra favorable for major SSWs. The only one of the four combos analyzed that clearly is extra favorable for major SSWs is El Niño/E QBO, like we had last winter and hopefully will again during the winter of 2025-6.

 
2) Secondly, were the five La Niña/W major SSWs mainly near solar max?

-Feb 1999: sunspots 98 and ~halfway between min and max. This, I consider this neutral solar.

-Mar 2000: sunspots 218/1 yr pre solar max

-Jan 2009: sunspots 1/solar min

-Jan 2021: sunspots 10/1.5 yr post solar min

-Feb 2023: sunspots 111/2 yrs pre solar max

 So, there was a mix and the avg sunspots of the 5 was 88, which is near longterm mean. Thus, I see no evidence of increased chance of major SSWs when La Niña/W is near solar max.

 To be clear, this analysis isn’t suggesting having a major SSW this winter is unlikely. Rather, it suggests it isn’t likely either and is instead only about a coin flip even with solar max. There have been 8 La Niña West winters since 1957-8: 1971-2, 1975-6, 1999-00, 2008-9, 2010-1, 2016-7, 2020-1, and 2022-3. So, 4 of these 8 (50%) La Niña/W winters had a major SSW.
 
  Out of curiosity, I decided to calculate the % of El Niño/E winters with at least one major SSW. These are the El Niño/E winters since 1957-8: 1958-9, 1965-6, 1968-9, 1976-7, 1979-80, 1986-7, 1991-2, 2009-10, 2014-5, and 2023-4. So, of these 10 El Niño/E winters, a whopping 8 (80%) had at least one major SSW! And the ratio of 12 majors during these 10 winters is even more impressive thanks to 3 of the 10 winters having 2+ of them! Thus, that’s even more reason to hope for El Niño next winter.

——————————————
 Edit: What % of La Niña/E winters had at least one major SSW? These were the 10 La Niña/E winters since 1957-8: 1970-1, 1974-5, 1983-4, 1995-6, 2000-1, 2005-6,  2007-8, 2011-2, 2017-8, and 2021-2. So, like for La Niña/W, half (5 of 10) of those had an SSW.

 What % of El Niño/W winters had 1+ SSWs? These were the 9 El Niño/W winters: 1957-8, 1963-4, 1977-8, 1982-3, 1987-8, 1994-5, 2006-7, 2015-6, and 2018-9. Out of the 9, 4 (44%) had at least one major SSW.

———————-

Data sources:  

ENSO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Solar (monthly sunspots): https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

QBO (30 mb): https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

Major SSW events (plus I added 2023 and 2024 events) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

@snowman19

Yea, I really liked that blog, but am starting to view it with a great deal of skepticism. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

One reason why there won't be an el nino in 2025-26: Since 1949-50, there hasn't been an el nino 2 years following any strong el nino. Besides, if there were an el nino in 2025-26, then we'd almost certainly have a +PDO pattern.
 

The next el nino won't be until 2026-27 at the earliest, and even that isn't a given.

 You’re 100% sure there won’t be El Niño in 2025-6? I’m not predicting one as I’m not even trying to predict 2025-6 this early. But I’m at least open to one then due to normal uncertainty.

 I read a paper I posted about that suggests a higher than normal chance of a multiyear El Niño later this decade due to the underwater Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption fwiw. But I’m not hanging my hat on that. Just being open minded.

 Also, arguably, 2023-4 Nino was only moderate based on RONI and MEI. Note that there was 1963-4 (mod Nino) followed by 1964-5 (weak Niña) followed by strong Nino (1965-6). In addition, though all were weak there was 2004-5 (Nino), 2005-6 (Niña), and 2006-7 (Nino).

Also consider these two groups from before 1950 per Eric Webb:

-1902-3 (strong Nino), 1903-4 (weak Nina), 1904-5 (moderate Nino)

-1923-4 (mod Nino), 1924-5 (mod Niña), 1925-6 (strong Nino)

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I agree that there will be an el nino later this decade. We haven't gone more than 5 years without one since like 1946-47. If we don't buck this trend, then we're bound to have an el nino by 2028-29.

If we get a multi-year el nino, I think it will be more like 2014-16 where the first year is a weak el nino, building into a much stronger el nino the second year, rather than 1986-88.

Regarding 2025-26, it's not going el nino unless, at the very least, the -PDO pattern flips to a +PDO. If we stay in -PDO, then I can see 2025-26 being anywhere from ENSO neutral to strong la nina.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I agree that there will be an el nino later this decade. We haven't gone more than 5 years without one since like 1946-47. If we don't buck this trend, then we're bound to have an el nino by 2028-29.

If we get a multi-year el nino, I think it will be more like 2014-16 where the first year is a weak el nino, building into a much stronger el nino the second year, rather than 1986-88.

Regarding 2025-26, it's not going el nino unless, at the very least, the -PDO pattern flips to a +PDO. If we stay in -PDO, then I can see 2025-26 being anywhere from ENSO neutral to strong la nina.

And if we are to do that again, it would probably be during this predominate cold phase of the Pacific.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I really feel as though its going to be squeezed into one big month if we are to a see a decent winter this season.

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I agree that there will be an el nino later this decade. We haven't gone more than 5 years without one since like 1946-47. If we don't buck this trend, then we're bound to have an el nino by 2028-29.

If we get a multi-year el nino, I think it will be more like 2014-16 where the first year is a weak el nino, building into a much stronger el nino the second year, rather than 1986-88.

Regarding 2025-26, it's not going el nino unless, at the very least, the -PDO pattern flips to a +PDO. If we stay in -PDO, then I can see 2025-26 being anywhere from ENSO neutral to strong la nina.

While you are technically correct, the 18-19 El Niño wasn’t able to couple for much of the winter. So we effectively didn’t have an El Niño between 15-16 and 23-24. The La Niña background state is getting so strong, that we need a borderline super to actual super El Niño in order to couple with the 500 mb pattern. Plus the record MJO 4-6 in December 2015 and throughout the 23-24 event were more typical for La Ninas before this 10 year period. So even 2 such strong events couldn’t mute the WPAC warm pool influence.
 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have noticed that. 

My interpretation of this essentially corrborates my early findings, which is that while a cold ENSO/solar max/west QBO combo may favor a strong PV, it doesn't ensure the most potent one on record.....and we could easily still have one month that featues an abundance of high latitude blocking in the mean. The season as a whole will almost assuredly feature a +NAO and probably even a +AO.

Besides those factors (Niña/high solar/+QBO), we also have the unknown effects of the cumulative VEI 5 eruptions of 2 months ago. While it’s obviously not going to have a “Pinatubo” effect, it was still a cumulative VEI 5 tropical volcanic eruption that injected sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. I would imagine, educated guess, that it’s probably going to have *some* effect on the SPV. Does that mean raging SPV all winter? No, but it may help to magnify those other factors even if it’s not a huge effect

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Besides those factors (Niña/high solar/+QBO), we also have the unknown effects of the cumulative VEI 5 eruptions of 2 months ago. While it’s obviously not going to have a “Pinatubo” effect, it was still a cumulative VEI 5 tropical volcanic eruption that injected sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. I would imagine, educated guess, that it’s probably going to have *some* effect on the SPV. Does that mean raging SPV all winter? No, but it may help to magnify those other factors even if it’s not a huge effect

Maybe a boring debate season in the lead up to winter because we are all pretty much on the same page.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Still just a monster N. Pacific ridge here.. subtropical jet making it up to Alaska

https://ibb.co/q7ggFZy

Then hr384 on the ensemble mean has another round of -PNA 

https://ibb.co/88Cpx49

My guess is that subsurface-ENSO will strengthen cold anomalies during this time in July.   They are pretty weak right now, looking like a Weak or low-end Moderate surface La Nina peak. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Strongest correlation, believe it or not, to a May - July RNA that should be record breaking, is a -NAO signal for Winter 

[map is default positive so neg PNA is opposite correlation]

I've been saying that -NAO/-PNA or +EPO and +NAO/+PNA or -EPO is correlating: since 2013, and more so since 2019 (correlation is about 0.40, or 70%), so this fits if we are to expect a -PNA this Winter... 

here's the regression

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And if we are to do that again, it would probably be during this predominate cold phase of the Pacific.

I think this current very strong -PDO cycle was well predicted by a few people after the 15-16 super Nino ended, once that west PAC heatwave off Japan showed up. What was not seen, by anyone, was the historic ++AMO cycle that started after that winter and is still going strong 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think this current very strong -PDO cycle was well predicted by a few people after the 15-16 super Nino ended, once that west PAC heatwave off Japan showed up. What was not seen, by anyone, was the historic ++AMO cycle that started after that winter and is still going strong 

Why do you think Strong El Nino's are followed by 3+ years of La Nina's? Even the strongest relative La Nina (1988-89), was followed by 7/8 years of +ENSO conditions. There seems to be a reversal that is more powerful than the actual event. At least since satellite era ~1940s. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I think this current very strong -PDO cycle was well predicted by a few people after the 15-16 super Nino ended, once that west PAC heatwave off Japan showed up. What was not seen, by anyone, was the historic ++AMO cycle that started after that winter and is still going strong 

It’s possible that the rapid reduction of shipping aerosols due to the new regulations that went into effect in 2020 is boosting the marine heatwaves in the mid-latitudes. One of these record marine heatwaves is driving the record SSTs east of Japan leading to the record -PDO values. The ongoing record marine heatwave in the Atlantic are driving the record +AMO. We will probably need further studies to confirm the exact reason for this sudden global temperature rise above model forecasts in recent years. But one of the uncertainties in climate modeling is how changes in clouds and aerosols affect global climate sensitivity to CO2 forcing.