2024-2025 La Nina

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Southeast ridge was suppressed further south than usual into Mexico resulting in the record heat there back in May.

 

 

Makes sense.

[GaWx]

New BoM, which was way too warm last year: virtually unchanged from prior several months of runs. I think of it as very strongly warm biased, but feel even models like this are of some use by following their trends and they can be bias corrected. The latest is at 0.0 for OND. RONI would very likely be at least a few tenths cooler. It has June at +0.4 and July at +0.3, both of which I expect will verify too warm (especially July).

 

 

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

New BoM, which was way too warm last year: virtually unchanged from prior several months of runs. I think of it as strongly warm biased, but feel even models like this are of some use by following their trends and they can be bias corrected. The latest is at 0.0 for OND. RONI would very likely be at least a few tenths cooler.

 

 

And the hurricane season is off to a slow start. If we get stuck on neutral, that changes the calculus for the winter. Not saying it will be much better for mby (mid atl), recent enso neutral winters have been real duds as 2022-23 was with a moderately strong nina.

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Solar cycle, El Niño and La Niña:

https://www.universetoday.com/35133/solar-cycle-triggers-la-nina-el-nino-like-climate-shifts/

So, these two sources pretty much have opposite signals. This tells me to be skeptical about the idea of any significant relationship (enough for forecast value) between the solar cycle and ENSO. There may be a relationship, but what is it and how strong? Also, I’m noting that this 2nd source is older (from 2009) fwiw.

[snowman19]

32 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And the hurricane season is off to a slow start. If we get stuck on neutral, that changes the calculus for the winter. Not saying it will be much better for mby (mid atl), recent enso neutral winters have been real duds as 2022-23 was with a moderately strong nina.

In the unlikely event it goes La Nada, we will still have the strong La Niña background state  (-PDO/-PMM) and the semipermanent Nina like forcing (MJO 4-6). With the neutral ENSO you would be at the mercy of those other factors, plus a +QBO and the high solar flux and any *possible?* volcanic effects on the stratosphere. Then 2001-2002 would become an analog IMO and I can’t imagine how much warmer such a scenario would be in today’s AGW, low arctic sea ice and ++AMO climate

[PhiEaglesfan712]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

In the unlikely event it goes La Nada, we will still have the strong La Niña background state  (-PDO/-PMM) and the semipermanent Nina like forcing (MJO 4-6). With the neutral ENSO you would be at the mercy of those other factors, plus a +QBO and the high solar flux and any *possible?* volcanic effects on the stratosphere. Then 2001-2002 would become an analog IMO and I can’t imagine how much warmer such a scenario would be in today’s AGW, low arctic sea ice and ++AMO climate

I think 2003-04 would be a better analog than 2001-02. At least we were coming off a moderate el nino in 2003. In 2001, we were coming off a triple-year la nina.

At least in 2003-04, we got a very cold first half of winter and a last hurrah in mid-March (after a warm February and early March).

[GaWx]

*Correction of my error: Weekly cpc update: rise from 0.0 to +0.3 in Nino 3.4

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think 2003-04 would be a better analog than 2001-02. At least we were coming off a moderate el nino in 2003. In 2001, we were coming off a triple-year la nina.

At least in 2003-04, we got a very cold first half of winter and a last hurrah in mid-March (after a warm February and early March).

I’d say no. We’ve been in a La Niña state for years now. Even though last year’s ENSO was El Niño that’s where it ended, the extratropical state, PDO, PMM and the MJO forcing was pure Niña, stuck in phases 4-7. At no point really, other than the official ENSO SSTs were we in a classic Nino atmosphere

[40/70 Benchmark]

Does anyone have the link for QBO data back to 1950? I'm having trouble finding it...I keep coming up with back to 1979.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does anyone have the link for QBO data back to 1950? I'm having trouble finding it...I keep coming up with back to 1979.

Here’s back to 1948 at 30 mb:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

[dmillz25]

22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have noticed a theme in that a lot of the NYC guys get carried away with this.....my guess is that it's being beaten down by bluewave constantly in that thread. I still feel like the idea of permanency is ridiculous.

No I know that the PDO isn’t permanent but since its decadal it sure feels like it lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Here’s back to 1948 at 30 mb:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

You have that for 50mb?

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have that for 50mb?

I can’t find 50 mb back to 1948. Do you have a preference between 30 and 50? Do you feel there’s more forecasting value in seeing both?

[bluewave]

There seems to be an inverse relationship between the lowest fall RONI and winter temperatures and snowfall here in the Northeast since 2010. So the weaker La Ninas for each multiyear grouping have been warmer with less snowfall  and the stronger ones colder. This has worked out for each of the 3 La Niña multiyear events. The other feature which stands out is that the coldest and snowiest La Ninas relative to the others had the highest amplitude MJO phases 4-6 in October. Plus all the La Niña winters have been steadily warming since 2010. With all the La Niña winters since 11-12 having been warmer than average in the Northeast.
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

Coldest and snowiest winters relative to the others in multiyear group bolded 

2010-2011 winter followed fall RONI of -1.70…NYC DJF AVG T….32.8°…SN…61.9”

2011-2012 winter followed fall RONI of -1.05….NYC DJF AVG T……40.5°…SN…7.4”

2016-2017 winter followed fall RONI of -1.09…..NYC DJF AVG T…..39.3°…SN..30.2”

2017-2018 winter followed fall RONI of -1.25 NYC DJF AVG T……36.2°…SN..40.9”

 

2020-2021 winter followed fall RONI of -1.52 NYC DJF AVG T….36.1°….SN..38.6”

2021-2022 winter followed fall RONI of -1.24 NYC DJF AVG T……37.1°…..SN…17.9”

2022-2023 winter followed fall RONI of -1.08 NYC DJF AVG T……41.0°….SN..2.3”
 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

In short, if there's an el nino in 2026-27 (Year 3), it's going to be no stronger than moderate.

If there is an el nino in 2027-28 or 2028-29 (Year 4 or 5), there's a good chance it will be moderate or even strong.

If there's an el nino in 2029-30 (Year 6), it's going to be a super el nino like 1997-98 or 2015-16.

(There has never been an el nino in Year 2 following a strong el nino.)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Now models have a strong -PNA starting the first day of July. It's quite a signal for this far out, being in Summer, with shorter wavelengths and all.. 12z GEFS extended looks like that May stuff in the north pacific repeating. 

I've always said that the ENSO subsurface correlates greater to the N. Pacific pattern than surface SSTs, OLR, 850mb winds, etc. This March-July is looking like a good example of that in action: Subsurface has been decently negative. 

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/uwnd_sst_iso20_anom.gif 

I would even call it a La Nina or El Nino event based just on what's going on with the subsurface. You kind of saw this too last year when the Strong El Nino at the surface never exceeded subsurface anomalies of +3-5c, and the actual effects of the event in the N. Hemisphere pattern were weaker. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

I can’t find 50 mb back to 1948. Do you have a preference between 30 and 50? Do you feel there’s more forecasting value in seeing both?

Nah, I just like to view it in its entirety because I think its ill advised to only consider one snap shot of band of winds that snakes through the entirety of the tropical Strat.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Quick ENSO update and some early musings on where we may be headed this winter.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/06/moderate-impact-la-nina-remains-likely.html

[so_whats_happening]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah, I just like to view it in its entirety because I think its ill advised to only consider one snap shot of band of winds that snakes through the entirety of the tropical Strat.

This is what I use from 1953- present

https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/qbo.dat

[raindancewx]

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

QBO is behaving like 1959, 1966, 2022 and a few others. Still not convinced it actually improves seasonal forecasting very much. I remember going into 2020-21 the idea for most was a pretty warm winter - no mention of the TX destroying cold In most forecasts with a +QBO La Nina. Same for 2022-23, no one really expected the blizzard warnings in San Diego country in March 2023, or the persistently severe cold in the West that winter. Years like 1995-96 and 2017-18 do of course have the -QBO/La Nina combo that we won't see this year.

The QBO is also a quasi-cycle, so the timing of -/+ readings at various heights drifts over the years. A lot of past years that have nominally similar values are at different points in the cycle due to leading/lagging the east/west peak of the 2023-2024 cycle by a few months.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, QBO definitely has limited utility...which is a point I was making in that write up if you read between the lines. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, QBO definitely has limited utility...which is a point I was making in that write up if you read between the lines. 

I sure wish Isotherm and HM still posted here so they could chime in on this very topic

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

*Correction of my error: Weekly cpc update: rise from 0.0 to +0.3 in Nino 3.4

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

 Bumping this to show I made a mistake this morning by thinking today’s weekly update had 0.0 in Nino 3.4. I thought it was odd considering the graph of OISST dailies showing warming. What happened was that I was looking at last week’s update thinking it was today’s update. 
 
  In reality, today’s update was a warming to +0.3 vs last week’s 0.0. (As one can see, I corrected the original post.) That makes much more sense.

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

QBO is behaving like 1959, 1966, 2022 and a few others. Still not convinced it actually improves seasonal forecasting very much. I remember going into 2020-21 the idea for most was a pretty warm winter - no mention of the TX destroying cold In most forecasts with a +QBO La Nina. Same for 2022-23, no one really expected the blizzard warnings in San Diego country in March 2023, or the persistently severe cold in the West that winter. Years like 1995-96 and 2017-18 do of course have the -QBO/La Nina combo that we won't see this year.

The QBO is also a quasi-cycle, so the timing of -/+ readings at various heights drifts over the years. A lot of past years that have nominally similar values are at different points in the cycle due to leading/lagging the east/west peak of the 2023-2024 cycle by a few months.

https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2024ClDy...62.2925W/abstract

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Bumping this to show I made a mistake this morning by thinking today’s weekly update had 0.0 in Nino 3.4. I thought it was odd considering the graph of OISST dailies showing warming. What happened was that I was looking at last week’s update thinking it was today’s update. 
 
  In reality, today’s update was a warming to +0.3 vs last week’s 0.0. (As one can see, I corrected the original post.) That makes much more sense.

I think it's just a last gasp of a strong el nino, like June 1998. I wouldn't be surprised if we were at -1.1C on the ONI in 2-3 months. 1998 shows that a late-developing la nina can become a strong la nina.

[GaWx]

55 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think it's just a last gasp of a strong el nino, like June 1998. I wouldn't be surprised if we were at -1.1C on the ONI in 2-3 months. 1998 shows that a late-developing la nina can become a strong la nina.

 Today’s SOI as expected per models has already gone positive from the strong negatives of just 2-3 days ago. It will rise quite a bit more in the coming days per model progs of Tahiti/Darwin SLP with Tahiti’s SLP going well above normal for June. It looks to peak near the 1017.5-1018 mb range on June 28th. 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think it's just a last gasp of a strong el nino, like June 1998. I wouldn't be surprised if we were at -1.1C on the ONI in 2-3 months. 1998 shows that a late-developing la nina can become a strong la nina.

I agree. We saw the same mistake right around this time last year when people were saying the El Niño wasn’t “taking off” and wouldn’t get any stronger than moderate

[Stormchaserchuck1]

If you guys want something that you can use in a tangible way.. try the research for yourself. Search La Nina/+QBO and El Nino/-QBO impact on the cold season (Nov-March) 10mb heights. You will see a strong correlation there. 

It doesn't go "X is QBO, cold in seattle, warm in atlanta", it's an upper atmosphere wind index, so it's more about how 10mb heights impact the 500mb level. When there is a - height at 10mb, it has +0day correlation to +AO (negative 500mb heights over the Arctic Circle). When there is a + height at 10mb, it correlates from +10-45 days to -AO, depending when in the cold season it happens. In November, the correlation is +45 days (+10mb +45 days = -AO). In March, it's +10 days. the time lag is in between those two depending how close to early or late Winter we are. I found a very linear correlation there. 

So +QBO/La Nina (I'm going to say central-subsurface cold at -200m is "La Nina") favor this pattern for the Winter. The Stronger the La Nina and +QBO, the higher the likelihood, and the weaker the La Nina, the lower the likelihood: 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The GFS ensemble mean currently has a >+250dm Aleutian island ridge for July 5-6. That is the average of all ensembles, which is a ridiculous size ridge for the middle of Summer. If it verifies, it will be a continuation of the May -PNA state that was record breaking..

All these things roll forward to a warm Fall in the eastern 1/2 of the US, as the Fall is the season where the PDO has the strongest correlation with the N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern, and High pressure in the N. Pacific ocean during the Spring and Summer strengthens the -PDO leading up to that time.. 

[so_whats_happening]

14 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think it's just a last gasp of a strong el nino, like June 1998. I wouldn't be surprised if we were at -1.1C on the ONI in 2-3 months. 1998 shows that a late-developing la nina can become a strong la nina.

Here is a comparison date to date 2024 and 1998. I only use TAO as it looks cleaner with displaying purposes versus this which you kind of have to do some extra steps to get a similar look. This site also uses monthly data versus 5 day, monthly, and quarterly that TAO uses. TAO has limitations in date range though as it only goes back to I think 1988.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html

This is not to say we are experiencing something completely different as the moving average is still very real, so 1998 would look colder on a warming average (1991-2020 as the current average).