2024-2025 La Nina

[Stormchaserchuck1]

39 minutes ago, Gonzalo00 said:

Do you think 2026 is gonna be a snoozefest in the atlantic?

If we keep the warm water temperatures up, it should be getting more active. About a month ago the -PDO region south of the Aleutian islands hit +5c anomalies, which made the Atlantic record temperatures look small in comparison. I don't see why the warming trend through the years shouldn't continue.. at some point, there will be an attempt to go back to -AMO,.. but for the next few years the -PDO and +AMO which are long term states, and take some time to wane being as they are near their peaks, should keep the Atlantic active. 

[so_whats_happening]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Obviously way early and many months away from seeing if this actually has an effect on the Atlantic tropical season, but could this “Atlantic Niña” and the high solar cycle be flies in the ointment for a hyperactive season? 
 

I wonder if this will have an influence on the development of the La Nina at all again typically you would want an Atlantic El Nino with a Pacific La Nina and vice versa but I still do wonder if the the WPAC still being rather warm is playing a role in shifting how things set up. Lets give it to the end of July to see if this holds or strengthens in any meaningful way. I think it is still too early to call it a dud of a season for hurricanes and development of La Nina.

Personally Im rooting for a neutral year but if the La Nina pattern really takes hold could easily see low end moderate via ONI.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If we keep the warm water temperatures up, it should be getting more active. About a month ago the -PDO region south of the Aleutian islands hit +5c anomalies, which made the Atlantic record temperatures look small in comparison. I don't see why the warming trend through the years shouldn't continue.. at some point, there will be an attempt to go back to -AMO,.. but for the next few years the -PDO and +AMO which are long term states, and take some time to wane being as they are near their peaks, should keep the Atlantic active. 

So seasons like 2014 are a thing of the past?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, Gonzalo00 said:

So seasons like 2014 are a thing of the past?

El Nino's have been quiet.. even last year there wasn't any Caribbean activity. Only 1 Moderate+ El Nino hurricane season since 1950 had more than 12 Named Storms (last year). 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, Gonzalo00 said:

Do you think 2026 is gonna be a snoozefest in the atlantic?

It's way too early to tell. 2026-27 could be a 3rd year la nina, a developing el nino, or even an enso neutral season.

Here are the TS/H/M stats for all years 2 following the first year of a multi-year la nina:

1951 (developing moderate el nino): 12/8/3

1956 (3rd year la nina, weak): 12/4/1

1972 (developing super el nino): 7/3/0

1975 (3rd year la nina, strong): 9/6/3

1985 (enso neutral): 11/7/3

1990 (enso neutral): 14/8/1

2000 (3rd year la nina, weak): 15/8/3

2009 (developing strong el nino): 9/3/2

2012 (enso neutral): 19/10/2

2018 (developing weak el nino): 15/8/2

2022 (3rd year la nina, moderate): 14/8/2

Aside from 2012, a lot of average to below average seasons, even the ones that are a la nina. It seems like the enso neutral seasons overperform.

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I wonder if this will have an influence on the development of the La Nina at all again typically you would want an Atlantic El Nino with a Pacific La Nina and vice versa but I still do wonder if the the WPAC still being rather warm is playing a role in shifting how things set up. Lets give it to the end of July to see if this holds or strengthens in any meaningful way. I think it is still too early to call it a dud of a season for hurricanes and development of La Nina.

Personally Im rooting for a neutral year but if the La Nina pattern really takes hold could easily see low end moderate via ONI.

I agree. I think moderate on the ONI is a very good bet, possibly strong on the RONI

[snowman19]

@so_whats_happening Any MEI updates? I imagine unlike last year, this La Niña should actually get a normal MEI response with the PDO/PMM both being negative

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

8 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It's way too early to tell. 2026-27 could be a 3rd year la nina, a developing el nino, or even an enso neutral season.

Here are the TS/H/M stats for all years 2 following the first year of a multi-year la nina:

1951 (developing moderate el nino): 12/8/3

1956 (3rd year la nina, weak): 12/4/1

1972 (developing super el nino): 7/3/0

1975 (3rd year la nina, strong): 9/6/3

1985 (enso neutral): 11/7/3

1990 (enso neutral): 14/8/1

2000 (3rd year la nina, weak): 15/8/3

2009 (developing strong el nino): 9/3/2

2012 (enso neutral): 19/10/2

2018 (developing weak el nino): 15/8/2

2022 (3rd year la nina, moderate): 14/8/2

Aside from 2012, a lot of average to below average seasons, even the ones that are a la nina. It seems like the enso neutral seasons overperform.

All seem tame

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

  Actually with regard to CONUS H landfall risks (especially NE GOM, FL and the rest of the E coast), I’ve found maximum risks ON AVG when ASO averaged La Niña is weak rather than stronger. That doesn’t mean there haven’t been bad years when ASO La Niña was on the stronger side, of course, as I’m talking average.

 And to reiterate, the June Euro runs have averaged a whopping 0.7C too warm for ONI progs in OND when there was no El Niño based on the avg since 2007:

 

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

  Actually with regard to CONUS H landfall risks (especially NE GOM, FL and the rest of the E coast), I’ve found maximum risks ON AVG when ASO averaged La Niña is weak rather than stronger. That doesn’t mean there haven’t been bad years when ASO La Niña was on the stronger side, of course, as I’m talking average.

 And to reiterate, the June Euro runs have averaged a whopping 0.7C too warm for ONI progs in OND when there was no El Niño based on the avg since 2007:

 

It’s clear at this point, the Euro is a warm outlier

[so_whats_happening]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@so_whats_happening Any MEI updates? I imagine unlike last year, this La Niña should actually get a normal MEI response with the PDO/PMM both being negative

Nothing as of yet they still seem to be having some issues. I hope this can be resolved by the end of the summer but have this feeling we may not see it this go around of ENSO.

It will be interesting to see as we get toward the end of summer if we can start to enhance trades at all, right now that is a piece that seems to be lacking specifically over the East/ Central Pac.

[GaWx]

47 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s clear at this point, the Euro is a warm outlier

And recent BoM runs have been even warmer than the Euro’s cold neutral with slightly warm neutral for autumn ONI’s low point! But last year it had the strongest warm bias.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

EURO got it right last year, but it's been a mixed bag the last 17 years. 9 years were clear misses. 6 years they got right (07, 09, 15, 18, 19, and 23). Two are on the fence, they hinted correctly at la ninas in 10 and 16, but ended up stronger than predicted:

’23 +2.04/+1.92/+1.49 - in range

’22 -0.25/-0.92/-1.03 - miss

’21 -0.30/-0.98/-1.21 - miss

’20 -0.49/-1.27/-1.52 - miss

’19 +0.67/+0.51/+0.24 - in range

‘18 +1.1/+0.9/+0.8 - in range

’17 +0.4/-0.8/-1.1 - miss

‘16 -0.4/-0.7/-1.1 - 50/50 (got the hint of a weak nina, but ended up stronger)

’15 +2.4/+2.6/+2.3 - in range

’14 +1.3/+0.6/+0.5 - miss

’13 +0.6/-0.2/-0.2 - miss

‘12 +1.2/+0.1/-0.1 - miss

*’11 +0.1/-1.0/-0.9 - miss

*’10 -1.0/-1.6/-1.7 - 50/50 (got the hint of a significant nina, but ended up stronger)

*’09 +1.3/+1.0/+0.9 - in range

*’08 +0.3/-0.4/-0.4 - miss

*’07 -1.1/-1.3/-1.3 - in range

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

EURO got it right last year, but it's been a mixed bag the last 17 years. 9 years were clear misses. 6 years they got right (07, 09, 15, 18, 19, and 23). Two are on the fence, they hinted correctly at la ninas in 10 and 16, but ended up stronger than predicted:

’23 +2.04/+1.92/+1.49 - in range

’22 -0.25/-0.92/-1.03 - miss

’21 -0.30/-0.98/-1.21 - miss

’20 -0.49/-1.27/-1.52 - miss

’19 +0.67/+0.51/+0.24 - in range

‘18 +1.1/+0.9/+0.8 - in range

’17 +0.4/-0.8/-1.1 - miss

‘16 -0.4/-0.7/-1.1 - 50/50 (got the hint of a weak nina, but ended up stronger)

’15 +2.4/+2.6/+2.3 - in range

’14 +1.3/+0.6/+0.5 - miss

’13 +0.6/-0.2/-0.2 - miss

‘12 +1.2/+0.1/-0.1 - miss

*’11 +0.1/-1.0/-0.9 - miss

*’10 -1.0/-1.6/-1.7 - 50/50 (got the hint of a significant nina, but ended up stronger)

*’09 +1.3/+1.0/+0.9 - in range

*’08 +0.3/-0.4/-0.4 - miss

*’07 -1.1/-1.3/-1.3 - in range

 

Thanks for analyzing it this way. Good stuff! Note that:

1) Most (4 of 6) of the "in range" were for El Nino. The Euro clearly has performed best during El Nino with an avg miss of only +0.2. But during others it missed on avg by +0.7 and was too warm all 11 times even though twice it was only off by ~+0.2. So, with El Nino being done, the reasonable best case for this year imo is a miss of only +0.2 meaning ONI low point of -0.5.

2) Note that even for 5 of the 6 "in range", it missed slightly too warm rather than slightly too cool. Of all 17 years, only 2015 verified too cool!

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, June's Euro monthly sea level pressure forecast thru October. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_mslp?area=GLOB&base_time=202406010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202407020000

[snowman19]

@Gawx These heatdomes just serving to further increase the already boiling SSTs in the western Atlantic (+AMO), feeding back into the seemingly never ending cycle of amplifying the SE ridge/WAR during winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx These heatdomes just serving to further increase the already boiling SSTs in the western Atlantic (+AMO), feeding back into the seemingly never ending cycle of amplifying the SE ridge/WAR during winter
 

We didn't have much heat last summer and winter was still awful.....Pacific will be the main driver, so yea...winter will suck again.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We didn't have much heat last summer and winter was still awful.....Pacific will be the main driver, so yea...winter will suck again.

Lol I mean the PAC is almost always the main driver with everything moving west-east unless you have a winter of anomalous, predominate strong NAO/AO blocking 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Lol I mean the PAC is almost always the main driver with everything moving west-east unless you have a winter of anomalous, predominate strong NAO/AO blocking 

Yup.

I think you and I are on the same page for once.....but you never know, even if the season is awful you can get lucky with a pattern(s).

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yup.

I think you and I are on the same page for once.....but you never know, even if the season is awful you can get lucky with a pattern(s).

We are in agreement on pretty much everything. Let’s see what happens over the next 5 months, but as it all stands right now, it looks very ugly for winter. Unless there are some major, large scale synoptic changes all around (from PAC to ATL to tropics to arctic to stratosphere to solar) between now and November, I think we may be in real big trouble. That said, seasonal snowfall is always the biggest wildcard, cliche, but it only takes one big luck storm to skew the entire season…..

[so_whats_happening]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx These heatdomes just serving to further increase the already boiling SSTs in the western Atlantic (+AMO), feeding back into the seemingly never ending cycle of amplifying the SE ridge/WAR during winter
 

This is about as typical as it gets for summer though. I will say this is a bit earlier then we typically see these temps in the East/ Mid Atlantic, we usually wait until right around the 4th of July to mid July to really set in the heat. Surprisingly the dew points across the country are not too bad right now not use to seeing dews points in the mid 50's like this in June with a heat dome nearby.

Since we barely have a noticeable wave with the MJO I would not be surprised if the pattern kind of recycles on itself for the foreseeable future. We essentially dropped in null around 4/5, I used la nada since technically this where we are still there. I could see by beginning of July we may start to change things up a little maybe before a reset mid to late July as always still rather early though.

[so_whats_happening]

9 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

This is about as typical as it gets for summer though. I will say this is a bit earlier then we typically see these temps in the East/ Mid Atlantic, we usually wait until right around the 4th of July to mid July to really set in the heat. Surprisingly the dew points across the country are not too bad right now not use to seeing dews points in the mid 50's like this in June with a heat dome nearby.

Since we barely have a noticeable wave with the MJO I would not be surprised if the pattern kind of recycles on itself for the foreseeable future. We essentially dropped in null around 4/5, I used la nada since technically this where we are still there. I could see by beginning of July we may start to change things up a little maybe before a reset mid to late July as always still rather early though.

Month to date we see this is not terribly far off, especially with these plots being low reliability. Much higher heights over the north pole though which is throwing some differences in looks. Much warmer in the east than I had originally thought thought the cold shots earlier in the month would have been more pronounced, oh well you live and you learn.

[raindancewx]

Alberto hitting NE MX as a weak tropical storm from the east in June is likely pretty rare. Been trying to see if other La Ninas had similar storm trajectories. 

You can sort of see the impacts. Boston hit 98F today, whereas the Highlands of Central MX will see highs in the mid-60s for the foreseeable future with the extra moisture.

Droughts end and old Mexico is in a bad one. Suspect this storm will prevent the day 0 stuff you see in the media about Mexico City running out of water. I'll be watching the path of the remnant moisture of Alberto as it could really help us out in NM and TX if we get some long-duration steady rain. I don't think we'll get much in the city. 

I think the wet footprint this month may be enough to prevent a scorching hot Summer along the NM/TX border which is nice to see. That area has been roasting and stupid dry in La Nina winters in recent times. Amarillo had that ~5 month streak without precipitation in the 2017-18 La Nina.

[snowman19]

@Stormchaserchuck1 Correct me if I’m wrong, but I remember reading a study several years ago that correlated a June tripole in the Atlantic to a -NAO winter. I forget the exact details, but basically it argued a very strong correlation to a tripole showing up in June, then “going away” and resurfacing by winter. It showed that the anomalies sink underneath the surface after June then come back to the surface in winter. I assume the inferno SSTs around New Foundland right now is definitely not what we want to see, nothing even close to any semblance of a tripole so far this month

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 Correct me if I’m wrong, but I remember reading a study several years ago that correlated a June tripole in the Atlantic to a -NAO winter. I forget the exact details, but basically it argued a very strong correlation to a tripole showing up in June, then “going away” and resurfacing by winter. It showed that the anomalies sink underneath the surface after June then come back to the surface in winter. I assume the inferno SSTs around New Foundland right now is definitely not what we want to see, nothing even close to any semblance of a tripole so far this month

Yes, this is what his May-August formula is based on.

He did also say it looked better for -NAO earlier in the month. I figutred that would happen, as I have never anticipated big blocking this coming season.

[snowman19]

Ridiculous and it’s not even July yet….

[GaWx]

14 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Alberto hitting NE MX as a weak tropical storm from the east in June is likely pretty rare. Been trying to see if other La Ninas had similar storm trajectories. 

 I just happened to check last night to see how rare this has been. There have been only 12 years since 1851 with a TS+ hitting NE MX in June. But 5 have been just since 2005! Keep in mind there’s a chance there will end up being not just one but two (first time on record). Here’s the data along with fall/winter ENSO (using RONI for 1950+ and Webb ONI pre 1950) and E US winter temperatures:
 

June landfalls NE MX N of 20N/ENSO/E US winter

2024: Alberto TS + possible 2nd/likely Nina/??
 
2016: Danielle TS/mod Niña/mild

2011: Arlene TS/mod Niña/mild

2010: Alex H/strong Niña/cold

2005: Bret TS/weak Niña/normal

1959: Beulah TD/neutral/mild

1958: Alma TS/weak Nino/cool to cold

1954: Alice H/weak Niña/normal

1936: #2 TS/neutral/mild

1924: #1 TS/mod Niña/normal to mild

1922: #1 TS/cold neutral/cool to mild

1865: #2 TS/weak Nino/no data

 The # of CONUS hurricane landfalls for those seasons averaged near normal (2.2) but were all over the map (0 to 6).

Year: CONUS H landfalls

2016: 2

2011: 1

2010: 0

2005: 6

1959: 3

1958: 1

1954: 3

1936: 3

1924: 3

1922: 0

1865: 2

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 Correct me if I’m wrong, but I remember reading a study several years ago that correlated a June tripole in the Atlantic to a -NAO winter. I forget the exact details, but basically it argued a very strong correlation to a tripole showing up in June, then “going away” and resurfacing by winter. It showed that the anomalies sink underneath the surface after June then come back to the surface in winter. I assume the inferno SSTs around New Foundland right now is definitely not what we want to see, nothing even close to any semblance of a tripole so far this month

Yeah, I have correlated May-Sept N. Atlantic SSTs with the following Winters NAO (DJFM), at a 0.54 standard deviation. That SD is 9-9 since I incepted the thing in 2005.  The current index is Neutral, with 30% of the time period complete, it's like -0.05 for the Winter's NAO right now. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]