2024-2025 La Nina

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Heat in the old Mexican Highlands has now been fully destroyed, and then some. Highs will be in the mid-60s (5-10 below average if it verifies) there at approximately the same time frame places as far north as Boston could see mid-90s.

June 2021 locally had both near-all time record warm highs and near-all time record cold-highs locally (103 and 67 respectively). A similar thing happened in June 2022 (101 and multiple days in the low 70s). This month has already seen several days hit 100 with another day only hitting 72. Both 2021/2022 had highs in the low 70s / upper 60s late June, which is actually super cold here (20-25 below average), while 100-103 is only 8-12 above average even in early June.

We're not really in La Nina conditions for what it's worth. Nino 3.4 is still warm west of 140W. 

I read a paper a long time ago that said cold water by New Zealand is like a teleconnection for a wet/dry winter in the Southwest (NV, AZ, CA, UT - notably not New Mexico or Colorado) but it has to be cold there July-Sept to be reliable. Notably, July-Sept of 2018, 2019 were not cold by NZ and were not wet in the SW US. Years like 1997 and 2004 were much colder (though not frigid) as were other years like 2016/2022/2023 to a lesser extent. Also 2017, which was absurdly dry here, was quite warm too by NZ). The effect is diminished by NM/CO as a lot of our moisture is from storms getting stuck in the mountains for 1-3 days, not from extra storms or a better storm path per se.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180613101946.htm 

The New Zealand Index (NZI) teleconnection depends on a western Pacific ocean–atmosphere pathway. a Negative SST anomalies (blue shading) in the NZI region cascade in the northern hemisphere through a late summer interhemispheric atmospheric bridge and are maintained by air-sea coupling until the following winter. The SST anomalies affect the atmospheric pressure in the US west coast and strengthen the regional jet stream which brings more winter storms in the SWUS; b Late-summer positive SST anomalies (red shading) in the NZI region deflect the jet stream to the north, leading to dry conditions over the SWUS

@40/70 Benchmark @bluewave  Besides the obvious -PDO, look how strongly negative the PMM has become….if this continues, it would support a very weak/basically non existent STJ this winter…..

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark @bluewave  Besides the obvious -PDO, look how strongly negative the PMM has become….if this continues, it would support a very weak/basically non existent STJ this winter…..

That is more of a concern for the mid atl....most snowfall in NE comes from the northern stream.

[snowman19]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is more of a concern for the mid atl....most snowfall in NE comes from the northern streeam.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL104000

[40/70 Benchmark]

Don't get me wrong, though....I don't mean to imply that this winter looks particularly promising for NE, either.....just not as dire as further south.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is more of a concern for the mid atl....most snowfall in NE comes from the northern stream.

The problem is southern New England winter climo is resembling NYC climo while NYC resembles VA and so forth.

The only ones in the clear as of now are central and especially Northern new England 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't get me wrong, though....I don't mean to imply that this winter looks particularly promising for NE, either.....just not as dire as further south.

 

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The problem is southern New England winter climo is resembling NYC climo while NYC resembles VA and so forth

The only ones in the clear as of now are central and especially Northern new England 

I think I was pretty careful with the way I articulated this.....I did say "more of a concern for the mid atl", not "SNE is in the clear".

As far as your basic point, everyone in the east has resembled climo of locales further south because the past several seasons have sucked....not sure of your point, unless you are implying that this is the new norm. I think 8 years is a bit premature, but I am on record as saying I will entertain that if we get into the next decade and still in this regime. Reglardless, snowfall regression should have been expected after the bonanza last decade along the east coast.

I stand by my assertion that SNE still gets more snow from the N stream than the STJ, regardless of how warm it has been.

[snowman19]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I think I was pretty careful with the way I articulated this.....I did say "more of a concern for the mid atl", not "SNE is in the clear".

As far as your basic point, everyone in the east has resembled climo of locales further south because the past several seasons have sucked....not sure of your point, unless you are implying that this is the new norm. I think 8 years is a bit premature, but I am on record as saying I will entertain that if we get into the next decade and still in this regime. Reglardless, snowfall regression should have been expected after the bonanza last decade along the east coast.

I stand by my assertion that SNE still gets more snow from the N stream than the STJ, regardless of how warm it has been.

Agree with this. Really the entire 15 year period from 2000-2015 featured above normal snow all averaged out, also several cold winters. People can’t possibly have expected it to continue indefinitely, it was bound to end at some point….

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I stand by my assertion that SNE still gets more snow from the N stream than the STJ, regardless of how warm it has been.

Yeah, that’s why JFM 15 was so special for you guys. Historic -EPO and +PNA block. The El Niño was weak enough so the northern stream was able to dominate. It’s interesting how JFM 15 was one of the most favorable Pacific patterns on record. Just several months later in December 15 we began to shift toward some of the most hostile Pacific patterns on record into recent years. 

 

[snowman19]

The fact that the -IOD developed much sooner than I had expected just adds to my confidence that we see at least a moderate La Niña event (going to constructively interfere). Negative IOD/Nina supports Maritime Continent and eastern IO forcing (MJO 4-6)
 

[snowman19]

From back in 2021….but this -PDO/-PMM correlation for the summer pattern still applies now, especially with the -ENSO developing:
 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

On 6/15/2024 at 8:41 AM, snowman19 said:

From back in 2021….but this -PDO/-PMM correlation for the summer pattern still applies now, especially with the -ENSO developing:
 

This prediction turned out to be wrong, as 2021 was a record breaking warm summer for most of the Western US.

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This prediction turned out to be wrong, as 2021 was a record breaking warm summer for most of the Western US.

It did, however, we were not going into a La Niña back then

[GaWx]

 The UKMET, which did very well last year, is about the same as the prior (May) run with dip to ~-0.9 vs -1.0 in May. Add ~-0.5 for best guess at RONI conversion and you get -1.4/high end moderate. It has 1+2 slightly less cool, 3 about the same, and 4 the least cool with ~-0.2. I’d label this prog neither Modoki nor east based but rather in-between for autumn at least.

 

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The UKMET, which did very well last year, is about the same as the prior (May) run with dip to ~-0.9 vs -1.0 in May. Add ~-0.5 for best guess at RONI conversion and you get -1.4/high end moderate. It has 1+2 slightly less cool, 3 about the same, and 4 the least cool with ~-0.2. I’d label this prog neither Modoki nor east based but rather in-between for autumn at least.

 

It’s probably going to be closer to basin wide if anything, but definitely not east-based, as no models are showing or have shown such a scenario in their previous runs

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The UKMET, which did very well last year, is about the same as the prior (May) run with dip to ~-0.9 vs -1.0 in May. Add ~-0.5 for best guess at RONI conversion and you get -1.4/high end moderate. It has 1+2 slightly less cool, 3 about the same, and 4 the least cool with ~-0.2. I’d label this prog neither Modoki nor east based but rather in-between for autumn at least.

 

About what I expect.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

I wonder what the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season would be like if this year is gonna be a big one

[raindancewx]

June has been just a bit different than last year so far. July was very hot here last year. Average high of 99F was just about all-time heat here. No rain either. July still looks warm, but much cooler, and definitely wetter. We might already be past our hottest days here. No 100+ heat looks likely in the near term. Some indications we may have a pretty cool period in August, which has implications for winter...but that's for another day.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Differences from last year can't be a bad thing as it relates to next winter.

[snowman19]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The UKMET, which did very well last year, is about the same as the prior (May) run with dip to ~-0.9 vs -1.0 in May. Add ~-0.5 for best guess at RONI conversion and you get -1.4/high end moderate. It has 1+2 slightly less cool, 3 about the same, and 4 the least cool with ~-0.2. I’d label this prog neither Modoki nor east based but rather in-between for autumn at least.

 

Getting back to this, twitter is pure comedy sometimes, the land of make believe. The amount of tweets claiming that this Niña is developing just like 2010, 1995, 2017, 2013 is laughable. Besides 2013 not even being an official Niña (cold-neutral), the others were east-based events that either stayed east-based or migrated west later in winter (2011). Literally no model is showing this event as east-based, nor did they ever, at any point in time since the spring. It’s called “let me find the coldest and snowiest Nina’s for the east coast and say that this one is developing just like those did”. So much bad info, wishcasting and delusion on social media. It does meteorology a huge disservice and honestly makes a mockery of it. Same cast of characters, different year….

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, raindancewx said:

 

lol, that's a nice blocking pattern in the Eastern US. Imagine if that was in place in any time between late December and March.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

 

Nice difference a year makes. I don't see how a pattern like that would be possible this year (two -4 areas).  It looked like we were headed for a -NAO pattern early in the month, but that didn't hold.

The last 6 full months: https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, Gonzalo00 said:

I wonder what the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season would be like if this year is gonna be a big one

I kind of think it takes some time for SSTs to saturate. Below the surface it's probably not as warm as immediately on the surface. If we sustain these temperatures for the next 1-3 years, hurricanes could see an uptick, but it might be too early to make a huge major difference this year. If SSTs were really as warm in January as they usually are in July, we probably would have seen a storm by now.. 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I kind of think it takes some time for SSTs to saturate. Below the surface it's probably not as warm as immediately on the surface. If we sustain these temperatures for the next 1-3 years, hurricanes could see an uptick, but it might be too early to make a huge major difference this year. If SSTs were really as warm in January as they usually are in July, we probably would have seen a storm by now.. 

so they might be more powerful than this year’s?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 minutes ago, Gonzalo00 said:

so they might be more powerful than this year’s?

The La Nina might not be a multi-year event. La Nina years favor more activity than non-La Nina years. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1995-96 and 2005-06 are examples of one year la ninas. Both were well above average hurricane seasons, with the latter setting all kinds of records.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Since we are going to have one of the warmest December-June's on record in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, I made a list of 19 best analog matches since 1948, and found actually a strong correlation for next Winter's temperatures: 

Dec-Jun analogs: https://ibb.co/gZkPmqk

Following Dec-Feb (scale is almost the same! for 19/75 years (~20%)). https://ibb.co/YR3kwmm

I made the primary factor broad-CONUS based above or below average temperatures, so if there was a strong opposite anomaly somewhere in the country, I didn't use that year.  https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV

[Years were (+): 1948, 52, 90, 97, 98, 99, 2001, 05, 11, 15, 16, 19, 22. 

(-) years: 1970, 77, 78, 81, 83, 92.]

[snowman19]

Obviously way early and many months away from seeing if this actually has an effect on the Atlantic tropical season, but could this “Atlantic Niña” and the high solar cycle be flies in the ointment for a hyperactive season? 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The La Nina might not be a multi-year event. La Nina years favor more activity than non-La Nina years. 

So less active then 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, Gonzalo00 said:

So less active then 

Probably, it's tough to say. Average activity is still increasing, as is the AMO. 

 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

29 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Probably, it's tough to say. Average activity is still increasing, as is the AMO. 

 

Do you think 2026 is gonna be a snoozefest in the atlantic?